HOLY SMOKES : Did i read this right? Dow below 10,000 S&P;1,100 Nasdaq 1500. Is this possible by October?

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[quote author="upperlowerclass" date=1222755998]I don't see how you can say the dow will be at 7k next year. I agree that'll be less in terms of bread, gold, ect. How can you be so sure that inflationary forces can't maintain the nominal values over the next 10 months?</blockquote>


If I told you yesterday that DOW will drop almost 800pts would you take a 100 dollar bet on it?



If I told you that in the next 365 days Im willing to bet DOW will drop 1.5K in a single day would you take the bet?
 
I remember LawyerLiz talking about waiting to get back into the market when it hit 10,000....then revising it last month to 9000..... That made me think.



My Dad finally pulled most of his money out of the market this morning, something I've been urging him to do for the past year So good for him..... BUT my brother went and bought B of A and JP Morgan Chase at the close today. Told him it was too soon, but he wouldn't listen.
 
[quote author="ventouxbob" date=1222755332]yes I know of something good. The CUBS!!! holy Cow. second year in a row in play offs.



-The CUBS</blockquote>


I have to say that I know another thing that is good. If you love bargain shopping like me, everything is on SALE in your local shopping mall. My wife and I buy new clothes practically twice a year, and last weekend Ms. Panda and I went all out... I mean 70% OFF at Ann Taylor, 50% OFF at Express, 30% OFF Everything at Banana Republic...



If you love quality brands at discount prices, this is the time to go shopping!!!!



Does True Religion Jeans ever go on SALE????
 
<em>If I told you that in the next 365 days Im willing to bet DOW will drop 1.5K in a single day would you take the bet? </em>



Wouldn't that trigger the "stop trading" rule....can only go down 10% before they stop the market for a cooling off period.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1222757870]http://images.icanhascheezburger.com/completestore/2008/9/29/128672056259412506.jpg



Here is the S&P 500 vs. FXI (Panda's favorite ETF).



http://img109.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/09/29/fxivssp500-4c15l98hg.gif



Notice how FXI is down twice as hard? Just imagine what it will do tomorrow after our bad day. Looks like buying some puts on the FXI in the real account will be a good idea...</blockquote>


Graph,



Why you gotta pick on me?? I never said that 100% of my portfolio is in FXI... I just bought a couple shares when FXI hit $32, and I am going to buy more when gets down to the $20s? Haven't you ever heard of dollar cost averaging?



Geezz, you blow things out of portion.... Who said that FXI is my favorite ETF.. Lately, my favorite ETF has been the DGP: Beta 2X Gold. I have to thank Muzie on that recommendation.



Riding that baby is wild, but I like it....
 
[quote author="blackvault" date=1222756243][quote author="upperlowerclass" date=1222755998]I don't see how you can say the dow will be at 7k next year. I agree that'll be less in terms of bread, gold, ect. How can you be so sure that inflationary forces can't maintain the nominal values over the next 10 months?</blockquote>


If I told you yesterday that DOW will drop almost 800pts would you take a 100 dollar bet on it?



If I told you that in the next 365 days Im willing to bet DOW will drop 1.5K in a single day would you take the bet?</blockquote>


Wouldn't take either.



If I told you that after the next 365 days the DOW will be at 10k, but adjust to 7k in today's terms would you bet against me?



The DOW will tank in real terms, who cares what the index will be at?
 
[quote author="Trooper" date=1222758149]<em>If I told you that in the next 365 days Im willing to bet DOW will drop 1.5K in a single day would you take the bet? </em>



Wouldn't that trigger the "stop trading" rule....can only go down 10% before they stop the market for a cooling off period.</blockquote>


I think it would only stop for a short period than resume until 20% is hit. Then, a longer trading halt starts, if after both halting periods the DOW manages 30% down trading is stopped for the day.
 
[quote author="blackvault" date=1222755556][quote author="Shooby" date=1222754538]So all of you who predicted things would get ugly...is this ugly? Or will it get uglier soon?



I mean, you practically have a bank going belly up every other week, dow falling about 3500 points from its peak, unemployment rates skyrocketing, tightening credit, tumbling housing values, high energy costs...



Is there anything good. Ummm...Bush is almost out of office?</blockquote>


It will get uglier. I talked about this before. Even if the bailout passes it will do jack squat.



We are arrived here through fraud that pushed home prices to a level that is supported by nothing more than then crap that you watch spin down your toilet. All the money that flooded into the housing market has to come back out to the point that it reaches financial sense.



If the bailout goes through money will be printed as nobody will lend it to us anymore. Money printed = Inflation.



So if homes don't correct themselves by falling, they will through inflation. Homes will be worth 500K+ in Irvine, but as I said before your paycheck probably will be 3x what you are getting now and that loaf of bread will be 15 dollars.



This is stemming from the big rise in people that can't pay for their 700K homes on their 50K income. This bailout WILL NOT make that go away, meaning the problem will continue. If you think think this is bad? What do you think will happen next year? People don't have a clue that the biggest amount of ARM loans are due to reset in the next two years starting from 2009 and peaking mid 2010...

-777 drop in DOW is light. I'm willing to bet someone that by mid next year, DOW will be around 7K.



Point is our nation has borrowed an unbelievable amount to pay for the massive increases in home prices. Now we have to pay for it...and we can't!



PS: Sell short and buy puts = $$$$$$$$$$$$$$</blockquote>


Blackvault, I am on board with you that DOW will hit 7k by mid next year. I also believe that there will be a quick moment when one ounce of gold will buy the DOW. I don't know what number that will be 7k, 6k, 5k. What i mean by this is that when the DOW is 6,000, one ounce of Gold will reach $6000.



At this precise moment, I will sell out of all my precious metals and buy back the DOW at incredible bargain prices.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1222758396]Graph,



Why you gotta pick on me?? I never said that 100% of my portfolio is in FXI... I just bought a couple shares when FXI hit $32, and I am going to buy more when gets down to the $20s? Haven't you ever heard of dollar cost averaging?



Geezz, you blow things out of portion.... Who said that FXI is my favorite ETF.. Lately, my favorite ETF has been the DGP: Beta 2X Gold. I have to thank Muzie on that recommendation.



Riding that baby is wild, but I like it....</blockquote>


Glad you're liking it, but be careful with this 2X stuff long-term. I've observed they ALWAYS end up under-performing just buying twice the amount of the real thing over long-periods, if you have the cash. It's emotionally comforting to think you have half as much money at stake, but in reality because it's 2x, it ends up being the same risk.



2X ETFs outperform twice the 1X ETF only for regular bullish investments, but I think GLD's going to have hiss and fits and it's not going to straight up, or up in a regular manner, and the daily compoundind tends to kill DGP's advantage long term.
 
Also be careful with allocations with 2X ETFs. Don't be lulled in thinking you only have a 10% allocation if you have 10% of your folio in DGP - you're being hit with twice the volatility so you essentially have a 2x weighting.
 
[quote author="muzie" date=1222761479][quote author="PANDA" date=1222758396]Graph,



Why you gotta pick on me?? I never said that 100% of my portfolio is in FXI... I just bought a couple shares when FXI hit $32, and I am going to buy more when gets down to the $20s? Haven't you ever heard of dollar cost averaging?



Geezz, you blow things out of portion.... Who said that FXI is my favorite ETF.. Lately, my favorite ETF has been the DGP: Beta 2X Gold. I have to thank Muzie on that recommendation.



Riding that baby is wild, but I like it....</blockquote>


Glad you're liking it, but be careful with this 2X stuff long-term. I've observed they ALWAYS end up under-performing just buying twice the amount of the real thing over long-periods, if you have the cash. It's emotionally comforting to think you have half as much money at stake, but in reality because it's 2x, it ends up being the same risk.



2X ETFs outperform twice the 1X ETF only for regular bullish investments, but I think GLD's going to have hiss and fits and it's not going to straight up, or up in a regular manner, and the daily compoundind tends to kill DGP's advantage long term.</blockquote>


I would have to agree on the 2X ETFs. They seem to be great for trading short term movements, but long term they seem to lose an awful lot compared to the index they are tracking. For the record, GLD is a 1X index.
 
Awgee and Muzie,



Question for both of you. Is it safer to hold GTU-Gold Trust and CEF-Silver/Gold Trust as they are Canadian Trusts compared to SLV and GLD even though they are selling at a 10% premium? I am now convinced that our government has the power to do anything and everything and may force all Americans to convert their SLV and GLD into U.S. dollars when the Crap starts to really hit the fan here. However, I do not think that our government will be able to enforce this on the CEF and GTU? They would have to goto war with Canada to cross this line. Any thoughts?



Call me paranoid, but I am guessing that our government will soon enforce some crazy taxes and laws to Americans holding Foreign Assets, Euros and Gold. I'd say get the heck out of the U.S. dollar while it is still legal. When the Chinese and the Saudis realize that our dollar is becoming worthless, they will dump it like a fly. You really think the foreign countries are going to be onboard to loan U.S. more money to bail them out? Not a chance.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1222771853]Awgee and Muzie,



Question for both of you. Is it safer to hold GTU-Gold Trust and CEF-Silver/Gold Trust as they are Canadian Trusts compared to SLV and GLD even though they are selling at a 10% premium? I am now convinced that our government has the power to do anything and everything and may force all Americans to convert their SLV and GLD into U.S. dollars when the Crap starts to really hit the fan here. However, I do not think that our government will be able to enforce this on the CEF and GTU? They would have to goto war with Canada to cross this line. Any thoughts?



Call me paranoid, but I am guessing that our government will soon enforce some crazy taxes and laws to Americans holding Foreign Assets, Euros and Gold. I'd say get the heck out of the U.S. dollar while it is still legal. When the Chinese and the Saudis realize that our dollar is becoming worthless, they will dump it like a fly. You really think the foreign countries are going to be onboard to loan U.S. more money to bail them out? Not a chance.</blockquote>


I think you are splitting hairs. IMO, they are both paper and someone else's liability. They are only as good as the other party's ability to pay.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1222771853]Awgee and Muzie,



Question for both of you. Is it safer to hold GTU-Gold Trust and CEF-Silver/Gold Trust as they are Canadian Trusts compared to SLV and GLD even though they are selling at a 10% premium? I am now convinced that our government has the power to do anything and everything and may force all Americans to convert their SLV and GLD into U.S. dollars when the Crap starts to really hit the fan here. However, I do not think that our government will be able to enforce this on the CEF and GTU? They would have to goto war with Canada to cross this line. Any thoughts?



Call me paranoid, but I am guessing that our government will soon enforce some crazy taxes and laws to Americans holding Foreign Assets, Euros and Gold. I'd say get the heck out of the U.S. dollar while it is still legal. When the Chinese and the Saudis realize that our dollar is becoming worthless, they will dump it like a fly. You really think the foreign countries are going to be onboard to loan U.S. more money to bail them out? Not a chance.</blockquote>


Considering how easy it is to move assets around just from your computer, do you think the gov. is even capable of enforcing a ban on owning gold and foreign assets?



Gotta be careful on those gold forums, a lot of the guys are really sharp, but just as much of them are thinking underneath a tinhat.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1222771853]Awgee and Muzie,



Question for both of you. Is it safer to hold GTU-Gold Trust and CEF-Silver/Gold Trust as they are Canadian Trusts compared to SLV and GLD even though they are selling at a 10% premium? I am now convinced that our government has the power to do anything and everything and may force all Americans to convert their SLV and GLD into U.S. dollars when the Crap starts to really hit the fan here. However, I do not think that our government will be able to enforce this on the CEF and GTU? They would have to goto war with Canada to cross this line. Any thoughts?



Call me paranoid, but I am guessing that our government will soon enforce some crazy taxes and laws to Americans holding Foreign Assets, Euros and Gold. I'd say get the heck out of the U.S. dollar while it is still legal. When the Chinese and the Saudis realize that our dollar is becoming worthless, they will dump it like a fly. You really think the foreign countries are going to be onboard to loan U.S. more money to bail them out? Not a chance.</blockquote>


Apparently, CEF was actually audited and they can reliably show that they actually have the gold in the vaults to back up the paper. GLD wasn't audited. Dunno about GTU. For me, I don't know if it matters in the grand scheme of things. I have some gold for safety haven purposes, but I don't subscribe to the "the world is crashing down and you will actually need to buy your groceries with gold" viewpoint of some goldbugs. For less-than-armageddon scenarios I think just paper gold is fine.



For now I'm out of DGP and into GLD instead. Thought about CEF, but I'm keeping it simple so GLD is what I got.
 
Man,



The market is a roller coaster. Down 10% yesterday and up 3% today? Dollar is rallying HUGE today! BUT HOW?? AND WHY?? It is like 2 + 2 = 7.



OH NO!! Time to RUN!



Now Graph is going lecture and "Bitch" slap the Poor Panda, and say "I told you so!"
 
[quote author="muzie" date=1222812119][quote author="PANDA" date=1222771853]Awgee and Muzie,



Question for both of you. Is it safer to hold GTU-Gold Trust and CEF-Silver/Gold Trust as they are Canadian Trusts compared to SLV and GLD even though they are selling at a 10% premium? I am now convinced that our government has the power to do anything and everything and may force all Americans to convert their SLV and GLD into U.S. dollars when the Crap starts to really hit the fan here. However, I do not think that our government will be able to enforce this on the CEF and GTU? They would have to goto war with Canada to cross this line. Any thoughts?



Call me paranoid, but I am guessing that our government will soon enforce some crazy taxes and laws to Americans holding Foreign Assets, Euros and Gold. I'd say get the heck out of the U.S. dollar while it is still legal. When the Chinese and the Saudis realize that our dollar is becoming worthless, they will dump it like a fly. You really think the foreign countries are going to be onboard to loan U.S. more money to bail them out? Not a chance.</blockquote>


Apparently, CEF was actually audited and they can reliably show that they actually have the gold in the vaults to back up the paper. GLD wasn't audited. Dunno about GTU. For me, I don't know if it matters in the grand scheme of things. I have some gold for safety haven purposes, but I don't subscribe to the "the world is crashing down and you will actually need to buy your groceries with gold" viewpoint of some goldbugs. For less-than-armageddon scenarios I think just paper gold is fine.



For now I'm out of DGP and into GLD instead. Thought about CEF, but I'm keeping it simple so GLD is what I got.</blockquote>


Muzie,



SLV seems be a better value than GLD right now. What is your opinion about picking up more shares of SLV right now?
 
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