Hidden Canyon in Irvine
- Thread starter lcms2002
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I think the values are very lot-specific. As alluded to by others, the lots run the gamut from very small postage size non-view lots to third of an acre with views. I would imagine the difference in price between lots as these probably would probably be at least $500k? $750k? $1M?
that's good appreciation.
Lot 177 isn't a nice sized lot. You can't tell from the pictures, but it is an average lot on the dreaded T intersection, low elevation, close to main road that most people drive by, and has someone sitting right on top of you. Zero privacy. I know because I looked at a QDH near that lot. It has almost no backyard.
Non-view lots on Heather mist and Shady Arbor are the worst lots by far in the community.
Lot 113 and 123 are better lots - highest elevation, lower traffic and bigger lots due to its strange shape. Also get much more privacy as no one is right on top of you looking down into your backyard and master.
Lots similar to 177 on heather mist were going for 2.5-2.7 as late as last september when I visited the sales office. Very little appreciation for those bad lots since phase early phase.
What do you think is appreciation on average for Marbella?
As someone mentioned earlier in this thread, HC is VERY lot specific so it is very difficult to say what average is. You almost have to separate HC into two communities. View vs non-view.
Those non-view lots like 177 are probably zero after closing cost/upgrades, etc. They were hard to sell. I remember seeing an Avalon QDH on lot 200 or 201 in september of last year for 2.45. We saw the lot in person and thought, no way would I buy this even at 2.45.
Meanwhile. the premium view lots had 10-20 cash buyers all trying to purchase.
That's why I think it's misleading to say everyone at HC made out like bandits. Only the premium lots are up significantly, and you had a 5-10% chance of getting them!
I'm seeing this same phenomenon in Alta Vista as well to a lesser degree(since the best lots will be later). The view lots are selling way better than the non views.
To me, this says two things about the market.
One, this isn't a bubble/hot market. Buyers are selective.
Two, the rich are richer and there is plenty of money/demand for nice premium homes, but less demand for high priced average homes.
That makes sense. I agree with your assessment. I personally value lot size almost as much as a view. The following is my personal value chain - if you will.
1) Large view lots
1a) Super sized non-view lots with no rear neighbor (talking 14k+ lot size)
2) Averaged sized view lots
2a) Large (9-12K lot size) non-view but no neighbor in back
3) Small view lots
4) Average sized non view lot with no rear neighbor
5) All the rest
You seem to be very well researched with both HC and OH...what do you think has transpired in HC and so far at the Vistas relative to the above? The large lots at Bella Vista sold very fast even with neighbors behind. I would have picked up lot 210 as that one had a 4-car garage, 11K lot, and private backyard. But they are all sold out now.
There is really only one home in shady at this price point , this one @ 3.28M but has only 4 beds , despite having a decent sqfootage and large lot . but no view.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/19-Vernal-Spg-92603/home/5899696
I think what also might be driving HC is ease of access. I know some people don't like the freeways nearby but in many ways it the best commute solution for the few people I know that have bought in that neighborhood. Shady is a pain to get in and out of.
BruinDoc
New member
eatthis said:
I think the values are very lot-specific. As alluded to by others, the lots run the gamut from very small postage size non-view lots to third of an acre with views. I would imagine the difference in price between lots as these probably would probably be at least $500k? $750k? $1M?
Not huge gains in either Marbella or Capri after accounting for the higher lot premiums on more recent sales. Might be a $200k gain or so on base prices for early buyers over two years. The overall real estate market in the area has probably gone up equally on a percentage basis in the same amount of time. I think there might be another $100k or so in value increase once the development officially closes out. What a lot of people fail to account for on this thread is that buyers in this development are paying for a large amount of finishes after closing, so all-in costs are actually pretty high. My guess is that the resale market will settle in between $3m and $5m . . . But these sale prices will actually reflect very modest gains.
Zippohunter
Member
Lot 177 from phase 1 of Santa Monica seems like a nice sized lot as far I can tell from the site map. It is a non-view lot for 2.55 Million.
Last of the Santa Monica non-view lots 113 and 123 are not as good as 177. Smaller and weird position but they are going for 2.95 Million. In fact both are sold already.
That would translate to about $400K increase for worse lots. Early phase folks probably had $200K gain at close of escrow. Not bad at all. Resale will add a lot more. Santa Monica Model on sale for 5.5 Million. Take away 1.5 Million for the extravagant upgrades and 10,000 sq ft view lot premium which is being generous and one could argue resale for a non-view lot like 177 could go for 4 Million.
Last of the Santa Monica non-view lots 113 and 123 are not as good as 177. Smaller and weird position but they are going for 2.95 Million. In fact both are sold already.
That would translate to about $400K increase for worse lots. Early phase folks probably had $200K gain at close of escrow. Not bad at all. Resale will add a lot more. Santa Monica Model on sale for 5.5 Million. Take away 1.5 Million for the extravagant upgrades and 10,000 sq ft view lot premium which is being generous and one could argue resale for a non-view lot like 177 could go for 4 Million.
J
jmoney74
Guest
Zippohunter said:
that's good appreciation.
Zippohunter said:
Lot 177 isn't a nice sized lot. You can't tell from the pictures, but it is an average lot on the dreaded T intersection, low elevation, close to main road that most people drive by, and has someone sitting right on top of you. Zero privacy. I know because I looked at a QDH near that lot. It has almost no backyard.
Non-view lots on Heather mist and Shady Arbor are the worst lots by far in the community.
Lot 113 and 123 are better lots - highest elevation, lower traffic and bigger lots due to its strange shape. Also get much more privacy as no one is right on top of you looking down into your backyard and master.
Lots similar to 177 on heather mist were going for 2.5-2.7 as late as last september when I visited the sales office. Very little appreciation for those bad lots since phase early phase.
Zippohunter
Member
Rtlguru said:
What do you think is appreciation on average for Marbella?
Zippohunter said:
As someone mentioned earlier in this thread, HC is VERY lot specific so it is very difficult to say what average is. You almost have to separate HC into two communities. View vs non-view.
Those non-view lots like 177 are probably zero after closing cost/upgrades, etc. They were hard to sell. I remember seeing an Avalon QDH on lot 200 or 201 in september of last year for 2.45. We saw the lot in person and thought, no way would I buy this even at 2.45.
Meanwhile. the premium view lots had 10-20 cash buyers all trying to purchase.
That's why I think it's misleading to say everyone at HC made out like bandits. Only the premium lots are up significantly, and you had a 5-10% chance of getting them!
I'm seeing this same phenomenon in Alta Vista as well to a lesser degree(since the best lots will be later). The view lots are selling way better than the non views.
To me, this says two things about the market.
One, this isn't a bubble/hot market. Buyers are selective.
Two, the rich are richer and there is plenty of money/demand for nice premium homes, but less demand for high priced average homes.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Bingo, the trophy homes (in this case the view lots) sold at a premium and will continue to command an even higher premium in the future because of the demand and limited supply. Same thing happened at Baker Ranch at Terraces and Trails....view lots with $125k-$150k lot premiums got snatched up FAST (represented 10-15% premiums over homes with non-view lots).
Zippohunter
Member
Rtlguru said:
That makes sense. I agree with your assessment. I personally value lot size almost as much as a view. The following is my personal value chain - if you will.
1) Large view lots
1a) Super sized non-view lots with no rear neighbor (talking 14k+ lot size)
2) Averaged sized view lots
2a) Large (9-12K lot size) non-view but no neighbor in back
3) Small view lots
4) Average sized non view lot with no rear neighbor
5) All the rest
You seem to be very well researched with both HC and OH...what do you think has transpired in HC and so far at the Vistas relative to the above? The large lots at Bella Vista sold very fast even with neighbors behind. I would have picked up lot 210 as that one had a 4-car garage, 11K lot, and private backyard. But they are all sold out now.
I completely agree with the above premise. However, how come you are seeing the semin-custom tract homes in Shady Canyon selling between $3.25million-$3.5 million and people are willingly paying close to $4 million on a smaller lot in Hidden Canyon?
The homes in Shady Canyon sold for $2.25 in 2003 and have only went up $1million over a 15 year period!! They do sit on a 15K + sq/ft lots and have extreme privacy with their setback and elevations.
Could you argue here that Irvine's 'ultra luxury' real estate market is not supportive in the long run.
I just don't see a massive appreciation in the long run for anything above $3million.
The homes in Shady Canyon sold for $2.25 in 2003 and have only went up $1million over a 15 year period!! They do sit on a 15K + sq/ft lots and have extreme privacy with their setback and elevations.
Could you argue here that Irvine's 'ultra luxury' real estate market is not supportive in the long run.
I just don't see a massive appreciation in the long run for anything above $3million.
Whats happening with this one Capri Home on Redfin . Non view lot , but a very decent sized parcel (side yard and back yard) and a lot of privacy around it. No landscaping but interior furnishings seem reasonable.
Big price cut as well after more than a month of sitting on the market.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/100-Whiteplume-92618/home/113115315
Big price cut as well after more than a month of sitting on the market.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/100-Whiteplume-92618/home/113115315
AlexG said:
There is really only one home in shady at this price point , this one @ 3.28M but has only 4 beds , despite having a decent sqfootage and large lot . but no view.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/19-Vernal-Spg-92603/home/5899696
I think what also might be driving HC is ease of access. I know some people don't like the freeways nearby but in many ways it the best commute solution for the few people I know that have bought in that neighborhood. Shady is a pain to get in and out of.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/23-Vernal-Spg_Irvine_CA_92603_M18392-60335
Sold for $2.96 Million
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/14-Vernal-Spg_Irvine_CA_92603_M10399-24089
Sold for $3.2 Million
All are about 15,000sq ft lots with full privacy
Sold for $2.96 Million
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/14-Vernal-Spg_Irvine_CA_92603_M10399-24089
Sold for $3.2 Million
All are about 15,000sq ft lots with full privacy
