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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
mino2126,





As long as the demand is there, they will build them. Plus, they will likely convert most of them to condos after 10 years, so they need a steady stream of replacements.
 
<p>IR,</p>

<p>I know it is OT but I am not aware of IAC ever coverting to condos even if most of their portfolio is zoned condo. I lived in Rancho Mariposa for a while and they are zoned condo which made me think they were a prime choice for conversion in 2004 or 2005. They were built in 1992 and you can tell but they just recently remodeled them instead. If they ever do start to convert I would never buy one knowing what I know about them. </p>

<p>On a side note it looks like NODs in OC are down month over month to around an estimated 863 for April compared to the actual 968 for March. Last month I was too low by 23 with an estimate of 945 but the upward trend I was seeing just took a break. Year over year it is still up and I will give a mid-month update for May. </p>
 
<p>graphrix,,</p>

<p>The easy money was extinct 4 months ago so I do not expect NODs to head north. The easy money was very short lived for >$1M (only 4 months); therefore, I do not expect to see much for this group of homes to have NODs. 90% of NODs is a result of Mortgage frauds for profit. Sad!</p>

<p>That being said, I still think it is a buying opportunity for homes less than $650K (limit for 100% financing when easy money was avail).</p>

<p>Nice homes are appreciating 5%. I know because I am selling them.</p>

<p>Recocation is on the rise in Irvine. I know because I am a big leasing agent too.</p>

<p>No puffing here. Just FYI.</p>
 
nirvinerealtor,





You should check out the site: <a href="http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/">Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking</a>. OCRenter has documented dozens of cases of 100% financing on multi-million dollar homes going into default. The easy money was everywhere, for all price ranges, and it was available since 2003 or earlier.
 
<p>I found this neighborhood with the ZIP 92602 in Irvine. Same housing tract - similar sq. footage ~ 3,500 sq. ft.</p>

<p>31 Pacific Grove $1.325M COE 10/6/06</p>

<p>5 Rolling Hills $1.325M COE 6/23/06</p>

<p>32 Montclair $1.325M COE 11/7/06</p>

<p>------</p>

<p>30 Montclair $1.5M COE 12/18/06</p>

<p>9 Ivanhoe $1.485 COE 4/27/06</p>

<p>20 Buelton $1.580 COE 3/29/07</p>

<p>40 Westlake $1.635 COE 3/22/07</p>

<p>There are many other neighborhood with similar market trends.</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>nirvinerealtor:</p>

<p><em>Re: "NIrvinerealtor, could you show us one example of a home that has appreciated 5% a year since late 2005? Just curious." (irvine_native)</em></p>

<p>I think we need to find an example of a property that closed once in 4th quarter of 2005 and once again in 2006 or 2007 for 5% more than what it sold for in 2005. Could you find us such an example?</p>
 
One of Nirvinerealtor's examples does show just that:





20 Buelton Sale History


03/29/2007: $1,580,000


08/19/2005: $1,480,000


However in the next neighborhood we have examples like this:





5 Heather Sale History


03/15/2007: $1,758,000


06/30/2006: $1,850,000





Who knows.
 
<p>National Association of Realtors cuts 2007 forecast; marks first drop in forecast since 1968! (money.cnn.com)</p>

<p>"NAR projects a 1 percent decline in the median price of an existing single-family home, to $219,800. The group, in a forecast made a month ago, had previously been expecting a 0.7 percent decline. Prior to that, it had expected a gain of 1.2 percent."</p>

<p>"NAR expects interest rates, currently at about 6.16 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate loan, to rise gradually to about 6.5 percent by the fourth quarter, which should also have a dampening impact on home prices."</p>
 
<p>NIR - I will agree with you a lot of the foreclosures recently are due to fraud. But there are problems we have yet to see from this. I am watching a particular tract that was victomized by five cases of fraud. A couple of units recently sold for about 25-30% less than the fraud sale prices which takes them back to 2004 prices. Two are currently listed at the new low price and are still not selling. Now where the problem is are the other six units that withdrew from there housing ATM and cashed out as if the fraud sales were for real. Mmm more foreclosures to come. Plus one month of NODs doesn't paint a clear picture. </p>

<p>Again I have to question your experience or at least the person you work with for mortgages when you say the funny money for $1mil+ was only around for four months. In 2004 I did at least three transactions that were $1mil+ 100% stated financing and I know that it can still be done today. Maybe not as easily as before but it still can be done and this product was very difficult for a first time homebuyer to qualify for if at all. We will see what the summer brings but as of right now there are few buying opportunities regardless of price range. </p>

<p>Glad to see you back. I thought that we might have scared you away since you haven't been posting as much. There hasn't been as much discussion compared to when you post. Hopefully the rason is because you are busy. Good thing you are a leasing agent as well.</p>

<p>P.S. Seems like the infamous Slade from the Real Housewives of OC hasn't received enough fame to pay his mortgage since February. Another option arm believing kool-aid drinking sucker.</p>
 
<a href="http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomeFinancing/LendersMoveToStemForeclosures.aspx">Lenders move to stem foreclosures</a>




Another lending industry puff piece giving false hope to FB's
 
Speaking of which, IR . . .





I caught a post on Calculated Risk recently discussing how it will be difficult, if not impossible, to assist FBs because the banks don't hold most of the loans anymore - bondholders do. It seems to me that the lenders/banks will only be able to help the worst of the worst - those who defaulted very early requiring the lender to buy the loan back. Any thoughts?





Graphrix - Speaking of Slade... We were toodling around "the backcountry" on Saturday and saw a custom mansion open house in Williams Canyon where Jeana was the listing agent. We didn't go in, though. Just about all those ladies are involved in real estate. Wonder how things are going for them now?
 
<p>Graphix - How do you know Slade has not made payments since Feb? How do folks obtain this type of info? Do you know what the address is for that property?</p>

<p>Why do folks keep thinking the "bottom" is in or is close or will be in 2008? I remember the last top being in 1990 and the last bottom being in 1995. That's five years between the top and the bottom. Why would this cycle be any different? It seems to be the time could be longer and the depreciation could be worse because the financing was even more creative during this bubble. Employment is Orange County is still high. What will happen when unemployment starts getting higher?</p>

<p>EvaLSeraphim - Next time you see one of Jeana's open houses, go in and let me know what you think of her professionalism. Vicki's, ( from the show ), home is for sale and Jeana is the listing agent.</p>
 
<p><strong>Subprime in Southern California</strong> </p>

<p>"Subprime lending varied drastically from county to county, city to city, even from one adjoining neighborhood to the next. This map shows the percentage of home purchase loan money issued on subprime terms in 2005."</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/sections/money/subprime/">http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/sections/money/subprime/</a></p>

<p><strong>Subprime loans are big in O.C, bigger nearby</strong></p>

<p>"While just 21 percent of the county's home purchase loans in 2005 were subprime, pockets of the county are much more dependent on high-priced credit."</p>

<p> <a href="http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/subprime/article_1688347.php">www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/subprime/article_1688347.php</a></p>
 
<p>Eval - Jeana has a bunch of listings in Coto. I have never seen her advertise but this last weekend in the Register's real estate section she had a full page ad. Could be a sign of the times.</p>

<p>awgee - The info on Slade is public info and I found it here:</p>

<p><a href="http://cr.ocgov.com/grantorgrantee/searchDocumentName.asp">http://cr.ocgov.com/grantorgrantee/searchDocumentName.asp</a> </p>

<p>Select notice of default and plug in the date of 5/3/07 and the fourth one down is Slade. Of course if you want you can just search by the person's name. Then you would find that Slade also has a lien filed against him from an attorney in November. </p>

<p>Do you still think that the higher end homes are not having troubles? Here is what Bob Toll thinks <strong><a href="http://tinyurl.com/38ctbt">http://tinyurl.com/38ctbt</a></strong></p>

<p>House of denial article <strong><a href="http://tinyurl.com/2dwy57">http://tinyurl.com/2dwy57</a> </strong></p>

<p><strong></strong></p>
 
<p>Graphrix. - OK, but how did you know that is the Slade from the show? And are all NOD's related to real estate? How did you know the default was on his home?</p>

<p>In case you haven't guessed, I live in Coto. If folks are having trouble selling homes in Coto and if the prices are coming down there, they are doing a good job of hiding those facts from me. The homes are sitting a bit longer, but it just doesn't seem they are depreciating fast enough for me to perceive. Is it possible to search for NOD's for a particular area? I figure to wait a few years before purchasing, but it would give me some moral support to be able to actually see home prices falling in the area we want to purchase. Thanks for the info. This forum and the blog are some of the most educational discussions I have seen.</p>
 
<p>Heres a headline for you: SB 670 Defeated</p>

<p>"This type of tax is tied to the deed, and generally lasts forever. There are no disclosure rules, so no one has to tell the buyer about the added costs at sales time. There's no oversight of this continuing revenue stream to make sure it really goes to the promised use. The transfer tax technically is private, but it functions, in some ways, even worse than a government tax in that there are no requirements for a vote of the people, as required under Proposition 218 for traditional government taxes. Builders simply tack on whatever costs they choose to homebuyers, now and in the future, in the form of an add-on at closing."</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/opinion/columns/article_1610764.php">http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/opinion/columns/article_1610764.php</a></p>
 
<p>Confirmed Impac layed off 120 on <a href="http://blogs.ocregister.com/mortgage/archives/2007/05/impac_mortgage_lays_off_120_wo_1.html">Matthew's mortgage blog.</a></p>

<p>And tomorrow they release Q1 numbers.</p>
 
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