Headlines...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<em>>>"Newport Beach, where everyone is driving a Mercedes and the homes start at $1 million, is like an old western movie set," he said, describing the finances of many wealthy homeowners as precarious. "It's all just a front, with stilts holding it up."</em>

<p>That's been true for years, but probably more so now. I had a friend who did police work and he said that when he went up to Newport to question witnesses, he would talk to people in these big beautiful homes that had no furniture in them.</p>
 
<p>Follow-up video relating to Countrywide's plan to "save" houseowners involving Schiff. </p>

<p><a href="http://www.europac.net/Schiff-FBN-10-23-07a_lg.asp">www.europac.net/Schiff-FBN-10-23-07a_lg.asp</a></p>

<p>Cavuto is proclaiming that Countrywide's move has effectively ended the mortgage crisis. </p>

<p>The section after 05:33 is golden.</p>

<p>The "counter" guy is no better. He even defends ARM loans (at 07:20 and on) by stating that he has one and he can make the payments. I feel much better now, a guy who has his own capital/investment company and was advised Reagan on tax policies can make his ARM payment. That is about as middle america as it gets. I mean he should be in those stupid Chevy commercials.</p>

<p>Now is the time to buy.</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>
 
Schiff just keeps getting better and better as time goes on. He's proven right over and over and over and the Wall Street lemmings just can't stand it.
 
<p>Analysis on the "superfund" that the banks are setting up to save themselves. </p>

<p><a href="http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/26/magazines/fortune/citishelter.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007102910">money.cnn.com/2007/10/26/magazines/fortune/citishelter.fortune/index.htm</a></p>

<p>"This may sound silly, but let me ask you a question. Let's say that I maxed out my credit at Citigroup to speculate on a house whose market price is now less than what I paid. Citi wants its money, but instead I say, "Sorry, the house is selling for less than its true value. As soon as it sells for what it should, I'll send you a check." What do you think Citi's reaction would be? How about "Sir, where should I send the repo man?" </p>

<p>Well, folks, <a href="http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=C&source=story_quote_link">Citi</a> (<a href="http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=C&source=story_charts_link">Charts</a>, <a href="http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2007/snapshots/309.html?source=story_f500_link">Fortune 500</a>) seems to have put itself in just such a fix by borrowing lots of money to buy assets that have dropped in market value. But instead of summoning the repo (as in repossession) man, some of the world's biggest hitters are trying to set up a huge fund to buy time for Citi and some other institutions with similar problems."</p>

<p>Another article about if we have reached a bottom.</p>

<p><a href="http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/29/markets/distressed_debt/index.htm?postversion=2007102908">money.cnn.com/2007/10/29/markets/distressed_debt/index.htm</a></p>

<p>"That some players are starting to sniff around the mortgage sector is a good sign that the market may be starting to stabilize. </p>

<p>Still, the murky economic outlook has left some experts anticipating a further drop off in prices of mortgage-backed securities. And there are signs the housing woes could get worse. For example, analysts are bracing for a massive wave of mortgages to reset to higher interest rates and trigger another wave of delinquencies.</p>

<p>The uncertainty leaves distressed debt investors with the tricky task of "catching a falling knife," said Daniel Alpert, a partner at New York-based boutique investment bank Westwood Capital, which specializes in mortgage and related securities.</p>

<p><strong>"You could argue this is a good time to go in," Alpert said. "But my view is that a good portion of the market thinks the knife hasn't even started to plummet yet."</strong></p>
 
Wasn't it JP Morgan that said "If you $100, it your problem, but if you owe $1,000,000, it's the bank's problem?" Sounds like that Citi's plan. And it's not just the bank's problem, it's a problem for all of us.
 
<p>I tink it's more like bombing for blackjack. To me, it seems like the banks are buying up the banks bad debt at par in a shell corp in such that the market value is then par and banks can more easily keep it on the books at par. Hence, no write downs, no earnings hits an the stock price continues high allowing the bank to finance and like many homeowners, just kick can another year or two down the road.</p>

<p>That's the big question housing too, will a bull trap rally allow enough homeowners to refinance and kick the can two more years down the road.</p>
 
<p>Interesting quote. I looked up "species of neuralgia" and found this (from <a href="http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2007/08/20/apparently-we-need-anacin/">http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2007/08/20/apparently-we-need-anacin/</a>)</p>



<p>When fear replaced greed in the financial markets, Bagehot knew what the authorities should do. “A panic grows by what it feeds upon,” he wrote. It “is a species of neuralgia, and according to the rules of science you must not starve it.”…</p>

<p>“A panic…is a species of neuralgia, and according to the rules of science you must not starve it,” Bagehot wrote. “The holders of the cash reserve” — today’s central banks — “must be ready…to advance it most freely for the liabilities of others. They must lend to merchants, to minor bankers, to ‘this man and that man,’ whenever the security is good.”</p>



<p>That almost implies Bernake does know what's happening, and he's busy trying to sell us the opposite to prevent starving the neuralgia. It's almost enough to make one put on the tin foil hat and think about conspiracy theories (ex. why was the "Great Depression" expert chosen to head the Fed?).</p>

<p><a href="http://data.nationalmortgagenews.com/columns/hearing/">http://data.nationalmortgagenews.com/columns/hearing/</a></p>

<p>A few weeks ago, former <strong>FHLB Chicago</strong> president <strong>Alex Pollock</strong> handed me a "reading list" of three books that might shed some light on the current subprime mess/bubble/panic. None of these books, of course, are about the current crisis because, well, no one has written one yet (at least not for the layman). At the top of Mr. Pollock's list? Answer: “<strong>Lombard Street</strong>” by <strong>Walter Baeghot</strong>, a book penned back in 1873. That's right, 1873. My idea of fun reading is <strong>Raymond Carver</strong>, <strong>James Elroy</strong> or <strong>Michael Lewis</strong>' “<strong>Moneyball</strong>.” Anyway, 10 days ago <strong>Federal Reserve</strong> chairman <strong>Ben Bernanke</strong> spoke before the <strong>Economic Club of New York</strong>. And what book did he reference? Answer: “Lombard Street.” Chairman Bernanke quoted from the book, saying, Baeghot believed a panic is a "species of neuralgia." Confused? Type those words into <strong>Google</strong> and see what turns up…</p>
 
Hank Paulson went to India and here are some highlights of the visit: 1. Wants India to negotiate big-ass reductions in non-agricultural tariffs 2. wants to work on financial sector liberalization, as well as trade and infrastructure finance 3. move ahead with the big civilian nuclear deal we got going by year's end.



You just can't get enough nukes in that part of the world! The sooner the better! Go Hank, go!
 
I got this in my junk mail folder...





<a href="http://www.legalzoom.com/legal-articles/home-seller-paranormal-activity-disclosure.html">Ghoul Disclosure: Must Home Sellers Disclose Paranormal Activity?</a>








Ghoul Disclosure: Must Home Sellers Disclose Paranormal Activity?


Author(s): Susan Funaro






<p>As home seller, you dutifully check off the "to do" list your realtor suggests for a quick sale—curb appeal, leaky faucets fixed, termite reports, and oh, what about the <em>other</em> occupants? Do I have to mention them? This question brings new meaning to the saying, "Buyer Beware!" If the thought of buying a house isn't scary enough, does the buyer need to worry about checking for poltergeists along with old plumbing? </p>

<script type="text/javascript"> articlesWriteProductBox(45); </script>

<p>Although the wording may vary state to state, most real estate laws require sellers to disclose known problems with the house.<sup> </sup>This includes certain "material facts" such as structural concerns, the age of the roof and shingles, leaks in the foundation and walls, existing mold and mildew, and total square footage. Material facts can also include other items that affect the house's value such as the amount of property taxes, details about individuals who claim to have an interest in the house, or overlaps on adjacent properties. </p>

<p>Items <strong>not</strong> considered material facts include personal information about a seller, such as pending foreclosure or divorce, illnesses of the seller, <strong><em>or the seller's reasons for moving (uh oh!)</em> </strong>What if the seller's reason for moving involves the paranormal? Remember the unhappy inhabitants in <em>Poltergeist, The Amityville Horror, </em>and<em> The Others</em>? Must a seller disclose whether their property is haunted? Or what if a heinous crime, murder, or suicide occurred on the property? </p>

<p><strong>Death on a property may be material</strong>. In California, the Association of Realtors addressed the issue of death disclosure requirements. Civil Code §1710.2 states death on a property need not be disclosed if it occurred more than three years prior to the sale. The statute does require disclosure of a death more than three years old <em>if the buyer asks.</em> It does not state whether a death within three years must be disclosed, but many brokerage firms have Supplemental Disclosure Forms that specifically inquire about death. To avoid liability, it is recommended the seller disclose if a death occurred within the last three years, and let the buyer decide.<a name="_ednref1" href="#_edn1" title="">[1]</a> Some states have even gone further requiring home sellers to disclose "stigmas" attached to a property, which can include proximities to homeless shelters or whether it was scene to a violent crime.</p>

<p>In New York, a buyer sued the seller and the seller's realtor for failure to disclose the house's ghostly reputation. The seller even wrote about her bumps in the night with spirits for the local paper and <em>Readers' Digest</em>. However, many neighbors doubted the claims of the seller's spectral encounters, since the house was built in the 19<sup>th</sup> century and one of her spooks was anachronistically dressed in a Revolutionary War uniform. Although the court did not rule nondisclosure of the house's reputation as fraudulent, it did allow the buyer out of his contract and the return of his down payment. The house did eventually sell for $630,000 and several years later for $900,000.</p>

<p>According to a study by two business professors at Wright University, the supernatural stigma associated with houses where murder or suicide have occurred can take 50% longer to sell, and at an average of 2.4 percent less than comparable homes. Yet, a California appraiser, who specializes in diminution in value issues, says that a well publicized murder generally lowers selling price 15 to 35 percent.</p>

<p>Some homebuyers are not hindered by the macabre, especially if the gruesome past involves celebrities or legends. Indeed, ghosts can even be a selling point for some towns that rely on their dead inhabitants for tourist appeal. Cities like St. Augustine, New Orleans, and Hollywood all provide ghost tours of popular sighting sites. In St. Augustine, a legendary haunted house turned restaurant lures in diners with the prospect of seeing the house's former owner—a woman dressed in white who purportedly appears in mirrors and walks the second floor. Even homes that have witnessed notoriously grisly events have managed to sell. O. J. Simpson's home sold to an investment banker for about $4.7 million, and the Miami estate where Gianni Versace was murdered was auctioned for about $20 million. </p>

<p><strong>Sellers should disclose grisly facts about the house, so they will not be "haunted" later</strong>. Even if not required by state law, in order to soothe the <em>spirits</em> of prospective buyers and avoid lawsuits, the seller should be upfront about their home's paranormal guests or ghoulish histories. In a sellers' market, ghosts tend to fade and may even disappear. </p>



<a href="http://www.legalzoom.com/legal-articles/home-seller-paranormal-activity-disclosure.html?WT.mc_id=EM_NWS_OCT07_POST05_BUS_IP_B&WT.mc_ev=EmailOpen&spMailingID=1156932&spUserID=NDE3MTIxMTc5NQS2&spJobID=34742298&spReportId=MzQ3NDIyOTgS1"> </a>
 
<p>Double-digit California home price drop seen. Really? </p>

<p><a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071029/kbhome_california.html?.v=1">http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071029/kbhome_california.html?.v=1</a></p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>Atlanta Fed Working paper. Check out the graph on page 2 - interestingly, the increase in the homeownership rate starts back in about 1994. Raises the question - if financial innovartions created since 1994 become unsustainable (ie. investors realized those innovations caused the foreclosures, and cost them lots of $$ in a not-automatically-rising market) and we roll back to 1993 standards - what does that do to the housing prices? </p>



<p align="left">Accounting for Changes in the Homeownership Rate</p>



<p><a href="http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0721.pdf">http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0721.pdf</a></p>

<p>"We find that the long-run importance of the introduction of new mortgage products for the aggregate homeownership rate ranges from 56 percent to 70 percent. Demographic factors account for between 16 percent and 31 percent of the change."</p>
 
ns2524 - Did you see Mozilo was in on this discussion? It's not said exactly how much he thinks the market will fall, but you can deduce he estimated 10%. So how is Countrywide suddenly going to be profitable again?
 
<a href="http://publications.mediapost.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=Articles.showArticleHomePage&art_aid=70039">Realtors aren't spending as much money as they used to on advertising</a>. Less than half are planning to spend on ads, which is down from about 60% last year. Hmm...another blow to the falling newspaper business.





Interesting, though, how they still say print is their favorite advertising medium. If I were them I would take a harder look at online.
 
<p><a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071030/home_price_index.html">biz.yahoo.com/ap/071030/home_price_index.html</a></p>

<p>NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. home prices fell nationwide in August for the eighth consecutive month, offering little hope of a turnaround anytime soon, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday.</p>

<p>Things could get worse, said Yale economist Robert Shiller, who helped create the index. </p>

<p>"There is really no positive news in today's report," said Shiller, chief economist for MacroMarkets LLC, which collaborates with S&P on the indicator. "At both the national and metro area levels, the fall in home prices is showing no real signs of a slowdown or turnaround."</p>

<p> Video interview of the study writers: Boring but good</p>

<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=581972430&play=1">www.cnbc.com/id/15840232</a></p>
 
<p>O'Neal is out, but I don't feel too bad...</p>

<p>"...one of Wall Street's best-paid executives, taking home $48 million last year. At the end of February, he had nearly 1.3 million restricted Merrill shares, worth about $84 million today.His stock options, retirement benefits and deferred pay could be worth another $69 million, according to company filings earlier this year. In addition, Merrill pegged the maximum value of his long-term incentive awards at nearly $34 million, but they're likely worth less today because of the big third-quarter loss."</p>

<p><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWNAS906820071030?sp=true">linky</a></p>
 
<p>Further Weakening in Home Prices According to S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices </p>

<p><a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_102626.pdf">http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_102626.pdf</a></p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>UBS Posts Larger-Than-Expected Loss </p>

<p>http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-ubs-results.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin</p>
 
Back
Top