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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<i>"I'd welcome any corrections you would like to make"</i><p>


Sorry. I completely exagerated. I read through again and the origin of the increase in the money supply is the only inaccuracy I could find. I don't know what I was thinking. Maybe I just got all excited about the treasury and the money supply issue. Sorry. Hope you had a good time at D-land.
 
<p>Goldman Sachs <a target="_blank" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=K30K2GWPGXYBHQFIQMGSFFWAVCBQWIV0?xml=/money/2007/09/28/cngold128.xml">not so bullish</a> these days?</p>

<p><em>...Goldman's "decoupling" thesis was based on the assumption that the US housing slump was a "country-specific-shock" that would not spill over into other economies. This was now in doubt. </em></p>

<p class="story"><em>"The spread of global credit risks has introduced a new potential transmission mechanism. If home prices in the key economies begin to fall, this will have an adverse effect on global growth," he said.</em></p>
 
Eff....what's Spidey doing ? The Macarena ? <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wgl7st70jek&mode=related&search=">YouTube - Los Del Rio - Macarena (Updated)</a>
 
<p>3.4 billion loss from sub-prime exposure.</p>

<p><a name="" href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/european-shares-start-fourth-quarter/story.aspx?guid=%7B18CE0046%2D8DBF%2D41D8%2D9F84%2DB69F131A012E%7D">UBS leading Europe lower</a></p>

<p><a name="" href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ubs-take-34-bln-hit/story.aspx?guid=%7B1F69C79C%2D5F2A%2D408E%2DA135%2D4572D20EEDCC%7D">UBS sees loss, will shuffle managers</a></p>

<p />
 
<p>Ugh all foreign markets are up right not or flat at best. The Yen is up to 115.6. Eh Deutsche Bank is down. I wonder why when they own quite a bit of US property right now? Gold is up and oil is too. Futures are mixed.</p>

<p>Anyone care to venture when we can short the China bubble?</p>
 
<i>"Anyone care to venture when we can short the China bubble?"</i><p>


After you see a definite top and the trend is down.
 
<p>Discussion about WAMU's new loan disclosure policy.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/21082604">www.cnbc.com/id/21082604</a></p>

<p>BTW: What is up with Citicorp stock? It is up like 2.5% despite the company's quarterly income dropping 60%. </p>

<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/21079440">www.cnbc.com/id/21079440</a></p>
 
<p>Please tell if anything in this article makes any real sense to anyone. It seems like nothing more than delusional thinking.</p>

<p><a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071001/wall_street.html?.v=31">biz.yahoo.com/ap/071001/wall_street.html</a></p>
 
<p>It's the deriative economy!</p>

<p>Seriously. Investments have steadily migrated from Ownership -> bonds (lending) -> Value stock (dividends) -> growth stocks ->speculative stocks (dot-coms/home appreciation) - > and now are simply betting on technicals and not fundamentals for momemtum plays.</p>

<p>The stock isn't worth what it is worth, but like a house, it's worth what someone else will pay me for it in three months which when the fed cuts rates should spur the market higher.</p>

<p>Plus with pan-global nature of many of our big-corps, a dollars earnings today from over-seas is worth two dollars tomorrow, especially when the Fed cuts rates again.</p>
 
I watched the market most of the day. It moved steadily higher all day on decent volume. It looks like we have a winner on the "what is the next asset bubble contest."
 
<p><strong>Greenspan: World Economic Health Hinges on Housing</strong></p>

<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/21078887">http://www.cnbc.com/id/21078887</a></p>

<p>Good thing ole Al is talking about US housing prices and not OC housing prices. </p>
 
No_Such_Reality,





I had the same discussion today with few people and we couldn't agree with you more. The majority of stock purchases and sales are initiated by computer trading software running algorithms that have very little to do with actual company results, profits and prospects.





One quick example - I follow a company that carries significant quant shorts (shorts placed by computer trading models as opposed to real people). In its last quarter it lost significant money, but hit its eps estimates on the value of the tax credits those losses created. As a result, the stock rallied significantly because the models saw eps growth and covered their shorts despite dismal fundamental results, which should have led them to short the stock further..
 
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/01/opinion/01krugman.html?_r=2&n=Top/Opinion/Editorials%20and%20Op-Ed/Op-Ed/Columnists/Paul%20Krugman&oref=slogin&oref=slogin">Enron’s Second Coming?


</a>


In May 2005 NYSE Magazine featured an article titled “American Dream Builder” — a glowing profile of Angelo Mozilo, the chairman and C.E.O. of Countrywide Financial, the nation’s largest mortgage lender.
 
<p>Here's a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/01/opinion/01krugman.html?ex=1348977600&en=e205ff3131b48f7c&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink">link</a> that works</p>
 
Tangerine,





I would not assume that "quants" models use eps in a simplistic way, is hard to know from the outside, the models are created by people using very complex and modern math, there's a book that was recently published about it, interviews with the people that create them, I can call them math uber-nerds. Also, the models are being watched by traders that do manual interventions, the models are not 100% perfect, this past August many of them suffered losses.
 
<p>In an interview with Reuters, Bill Gross of Pimco predicted that the Fed is gonna be fixated on the subprime mortgage situation for years and said he thinks that short-term U.S. interest rates could fall to 3-3/4 percent over the next six to 12 months. </p>
 
Interesting that you guys are discussing "black box" trading. There certainly is a lot of it going on. Most of it is strictly mechanical and relatively simple. Some use complex indicators, but these don't tend to perform any better than the simple ones because all indicators are lagging. A great many of them use simple moving averages as support and resistance points for timing entries and exits. When the market is in a stable uptrend, I use an automated trading algorithm to trades stocks. I have it turned off right now (despite the recent rally.) Many of these trading systems trade futures and currencies because the profit potential is higher, and it is easier to move large amounts of money in and out of the market.
 
This is the book:





<strong class="sans"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/How-Became-Quant-Insights-Streets/dp/0470050624/ref=si3_rdr_bb_product/002-9282477-9809603">How I Became a Quant: Insights from 25 of Wall Street's Elite (Hardcover)</a> </strong>
 
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