You know that Credit Suisse analysis I like to post?
<img alt="" src="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/cs50.jpg" />
I hope they update this based on the new tightening standards. Do you think it an exaggeration that perhaps 80% of the buyers in California were just eliminated from the buyer pool?
We know the % of prime and government is much lower here in California because the $417,000 limit on the government stuff eliminates most of California. Also, we know that 80% of originations were either option ARM's, which just got eliminated, and interest-only which will be dominated by Alt-A.
If you thought transaction volume was low before, wait until these new standards work their magic.