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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Is an <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/economic-katrina-about-overtake-financial/story.aspx?guid={2C57B7C4-AAEC-490A-AE79-B65E9F5FBCBC}">economic Katrina</a> poised to overtake the financial system's levees?
 
<p>Washington Post/MSNBC: No Money Down Loans Vanishing</p>

<p><a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20127274/">http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20127274/</a></p>

<p>They aren't thinking like IHBers if they believe this "threatens [the] home buying dream." </p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
<p>California lead the nation with 24% of the loans originated last year were <a href="http://tinyurl.com/ythkq9">option arms</a>. Is that a problem now that they are gone?</p>

<p><a href="http://tinyurl.com/2qmp8j">Will the Fed cut rates?</a> Mr. Sohn of Hamni bank used to be at Wells Fargo but I think they got tired of him because of his Lereahitis.</p>
 
<p>A broker originated jumbo loan through Wells Fargo is carrying at interest rate of 8%, up from 6.875% last week. </p>







<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/20106442">Mortgage Market Primed For Trouble: Crunch & Squeeze</a>
 
You know that Credit Suisse analysis I like to post?





<img alt="" src="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/cs50.jpg" />





I hope they update this based on the new tightening standards. Do you think it an exaggeration that perhaps 80% of the buyers in California were just eliminated from the buyer pool?





We know the % of prime and government is much lower here in California because the $417,000 limit on the government stuff eliminates most of California. Also, we know that 80% of originations were either option ARM's, which just got eliminated, and interest-only which will be dominated by Alt-A.





If you thought transaction volume was low before, wait until these new standards work their magic.
 
<p>More confirmation from Marketwatch of IR's last post:</p>

<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/risky-mortgages-were-very-popular/story.aspx?guid=%7BB164A336%2DA000%2D48C5%2DA9D1%2DFEE96F0DFD35%7D"><strong>Western states went exotic with mortgages, b</strong><strong>ut credit crunch means options are dwindling</strong></a>



SCHB
 
<a href="http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article_Forbes.aspx?cp-documentid=5008065">Where will real estate bounce back fastest?</a>




The bulls get some denial with articles like this one. Notice the tone of the article. The title is talking about the bounce as if the bottom is already in and beyond debate. We are not talking about the bottom any more, we are talking about the bounce. What nonsense.





The first sentence, "Prices have hit bottom in some cities and are heading back up, but recovery rates vary. Here are the places with the best prospects." Yeah, right.
 
Nice find IR.





I thought this was my favorite part


<em>


Market corrections follow three basic recovery patterns: a V-shaped recovery where a market experiences a sharp, fast decline but comes out strong once it hits bottom; a U-shaped recovery, where prices decline gradually and recover slowly; and an L-shaped pattern, a hard, fast fall with a paltry price bounce-back after the market trough.





</em>Author then goes on to talk about future U and V shaped markets, but seems to ignore <strong>completely</strong> the potential for a L.
 
<p>For the more visually-persuaded (bubble-unconvinced spouses...?) here is a basic visual depiction of the loan mayhem that is gaining steam.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/08/05/weekinreview/20070805_LOAN_GRAPHIC.html">http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/08/05/weekinreview/20070805_LOAN_GRAPHIC.html</a></p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
Standard Pacific is having <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=SPF:US&sid=aFGCax1B6xk8">liquidity issues</a> now.
 
Whoo boy. If there was a product of theirs that I liked enough, it would be tempting to walk in there with a substantial cash offer and start negotiating.
 
I'm hoping IrvineRenter writes that analysis on market psychology because I'm confused at the stock market today.





Dow is up over 280 points? Why? What positive news is out there that overshadows the impending credit meltdown? Are they just hopeful Daddy's bailout is coming tomorrow at the Fed meeting?





It doesn't matter what the news of the day is, it only matters if other people are buying or selling. It's like a school of fish.





You might as well go to Vegas and lay money on red.
 
jwbrown77,





Today's rally was almost entirely short covering. After a deep decline, you start to see frantic rallies that close right at the high of the day. This is classic short covering. If there is no follow-through tomorrow, the rally is dead, and the market will roll over again.
 
Thanks guys. My market knowledge on a scale of 1-10 is probably -3, but the high level stuff sticks out and it's non-sensical to an amateur like me.





I'm trying to soak all this up so I'm not walking through life in the dark. :)
 
A CPA firm that <a href="http://www.rbcpa.com/companies/CFC_notes.html">dissects Countrywide's 10-Q</a>. I didn't read it all but what I read was pretty interesting.
 
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street overcame disappointment in the Federal Reserve's failure to move toward an easing of interest rates Tuesday, and stocks made a late-day surge <strong>as the decision was seen as a sign the economy wasn't threatened by turmoil in the credit markets.





</strong>Nothing can rain on Wall Street's parade!
 
Per CNBC if the U.S. places sanctions on China to devalue the yuan they threatened to sell off t-bonds to create a dollar crash. The housing bubbleheads have said this all along and now China has said it directly.
 
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