Headlines...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Eva, are you implying that the reason they started those was to showed the all the land was earmarked for projects? That's devious! So is TIC though.


Low income housing in Irvine? TIC really doesn't want that, they've been great at keeping the poor out. I wonder how they'll handle this one.
 
<p>I love how TIC says they don't have enough land for the low income housing. Hilarious!</p>

<p>They should argue that although the average incomes are high, the people that bought during the boom will be extremely poor in the coming years and that that should be counted as houses for the poor!</p>
 
Brief video explaining the carry trade and its relationships to currency values. It is a month old, but the info in the first three minutes is still valid.


<a href="http://www.tradethemarkets.com/public/841.cfm">


Yen Carry Trade</a>
 
35,000 homes in 7 years, so 5,000 homes a year.. and how many new schools, shopping centers, tollroads are they going to build in order to meet those numbers? I can't even imagine... sure affordable housing with 1.0% tax base and 4% assessments and mello roo bonds. Even half that number looks daunting... I guess there goes irvine home prices.
 
How can it be mandated that "<em>About 40% of the 700,000 new homes slated for the Southern California area must be designated as intended for low-income or very low income families, according to the plan.</em>" ?





From the <a href="http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/homepage/abox/article_1786581.php" target="_blank">OC Register article</a> posted in another thread, "<em>A mandate to add 35,660 housing units in the next seven years has left city officials reeling, even as they start work on plans to accommodate those numbers. </em>

<p><em>Irvine housing planners are crying foul about the sheer number of units and object to the fact that 21,282 of them must be deemed "affordable" for moderate, low-income and very low-income households.</em>"</p>

<p>And back to the LA Times article, "<em>Its new housing quota may force the city to plan for even more apartments and condominiums.





That may be the only way to keep up with its job growth as land becomes more scarce, said Victoria Basolo, associate professor in the department of planning policy and design at UC Irvine.





But the city may have to move away from the suburban villages that have become its signature, she said.





"They can build vertically," she said.





"It doesn't have to be sprawl, and it doesn't have to be single-family housing."</em> "</p>




Sounds like the projects to me..
 
<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/26/news/companies/horton.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007072608" target="_blank">D.R. Horton hit by $823 million loss</a>
 
<p>from cnnmoney - </p>

<p>The median price of a new home fell to $237,900, down 2.2 percent from $243,200 a year earlier. A glut of new homes on the market have pushed down prices and the government figures may not fully reflect the softness in new home prices, as roughly three-quarters of builders surveyed by their trade group say they are offering incentives such as covering closing costs or offering home features for free in order to support sales.</p>

<p>The sales of new homes are recorded at the time a sales contract is signed, so the sales pace may also be a bit overstated due to a rise in cancelled orders being reported by many builders. </p>

<p> </p>

<p>And for those of you who are sure home prices will rise when interest rates decrease again, the ten year treasury fell to 4.78% today. Good luck.</p>
 
<p>I have a feeling this thread is going to very active today.</p>

<p>I am going to listen to the Centex and DR Horton conference calls today. I will write down any good quotes and post them here.</p>

<p><a href="http://ocbiz.freedomblogging.com/category/autos/">OC auto sales plunge</a>. It starts with autos then retail sales and next you have an economic hiccup. Maybe it has something to do with the layoffs at the lenders like <a href="http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2007/07/25/impac-cuts-20-of-workforce">Impac cutting 43</a> people here. Make sure you read my comment there because I have a feeling there will be more people out of work at Impac.</p>

<p><a href="http://blogs.ocregister.com/lansner/archives/2007/07/housing_creates_1_1.html">Housing creates 10% of layoffs in the U.S.</a> Quote: “The impact of the housing market slump is probably even greater than these numbers indicate. We are seeing job cuts in several other industries, including retail, consumer products manufacturing and industrial products manufacturing resulting from the slumping market.” said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas. </p>
 
It's not the number of points that the market fell. It's the sector; financials. And watch the USD/Yen, it collapesed to 118.83 and no one on bubblevision is talking about it. When it gets to 116/117, it is my opinion that things will get nasty, and if it hits 110, stop all fans and take cover.<p><p>



I think Maria Bartiromo is a babe, but she sounds shrill today. She must have lost quite a bit.
 
<p>Here are some of the highlights of the Centex Q1 conference call. Looks like affordability seems to be a problem in southern California. </p>

<p>Dan Oppenheim Banc of America Securities</p>

<p>Thanks. Tim, in October of '05, you were out there before many others in the industry, talking about how the conditions we'll see in the coming quarters and years could be a lot tougher than what we see in the past and responded appropriately in terms of focusing more in cash flow. Little bit concerned hearing the comments in terms of stabilization here. Seems a little bit more optimistic. How is that changing if at all your strategy in terms of running the business and thoughts on cash flow here?</p>

<p>Tim Eller </p>

<p>CEO Centex Homes</p>

<p>Well, it's really not change it go from even October of '05. We are really focused on the fundamentals, Dan. And let me just reiterate that the market remains difficult. And I don't see any change in that for some time. So, while I might have observed that some markets seem to be stabilizing, overall, we have chronic over supply issue. And a chronic affordability issue that we are going to have to deal with for quite some time. So for us, it's just focusing on the fundamentals right now. Selling homes in a very tough environment, minimizing our inventory, structuring for profitability at volume levels far less than they were a couple of years ago. Continuing generate cash so we have balance sheet flexibility for now and in the future. And aggressively attack all of our costs.</p>

<p>Jim Wilson JMT Securities - Analyst</p>

<p>And I guess one other, I know you mentioned southern California being weak a couple of times. But what does northern California look like for you guys?</p>

<p>Tim Eller </p>

<p>Pretty good is relative. I think the issues in southern California are more around -- it was a heavy, alt-A stated income market and prices rose very quickly. Beyond the kind of the agency threshold of $417,000 for a Fanny Mae, Freddie Mack mortgage product. So the average price is over $500,000. In that market southern California, I'm speaking about, prices really need to get back down to the area of agency affordability. So that's why that one's going to be impacted more than northern California.</p>

<p>Dan Oppenheim </p>

<p>Thanks, just a quick follow-up. Was just wondering and thinking about some of the credit issues. What would you say the trend has been in some of the, let's call it the credit constrained markets, out there, we are typically seeing the lower FICO scores, lower down payments? If you can just comment on what the trends were over the course of the quarter.</p>

<p>Cathy Smith Centex Corporation - CFO </p>

<p>Yes. We are seeing actually a reversion back to a more traditional product. So even in the more challenged markets, now, as Tim mentioned, southern California has an affordability issue. Houston, we are actually seeing more of a reversion to more traditional products.</p>

<p>Dan Oppenheim </p>

<p align="left">Not so much in terms of that, but in terms of your orders in those markets as the quarter went on. Just given the, I imagine you are seeing a reversion back to those products, but that doesn't mean you have 100% of the people that is just the whatever percent of the people are still using it and the sub prime people aren't getting the mortgages.</p>

<p>Tim Eller </p>

<p>We did have some shift. But again our sales in Houston are down 30%, our cancellations are up. Or cancellations in southern California are fairly high, still continuing fairly high, as some buyers can't find alternatives can't qualify for the mortgages. So in those markets, more of those southern California/Texas markets that be typically hit.</p>

<p>Greg Gieber A.G. Edwards - Analyst</p>

<p>Okay. Second question I had, I mean you hit quite well what the nature of the problem of the market is. You said chronic over supply, chronic affordability. I want to is ask you how you are addressing the affordability issue. If you look down the road say to you know, new product, you'll start bringing out in '08 or '09 whenever, just how much lower do you think you'll have to go with your ASPs to the point that you have product that people aren't stretching to get into and where affordability ceases to be an issue?</p>

<p>Tim Eller </p>

<p>That is a good question, Greg. We have done some work on that. Actually, what we are doing is looking at what the markets can afford from a mortgage standpoint, given the current level, given the current mortgage products that are out there. The incomes that we know are out there and just backing into a sales price, based on conventional underwriting standards. What that is giving us is targeted sales prices by neighborhood, actually, in those markets. And in some cases, in many cases we are able to recraft our neighborhoods and our products in order to meet those. And that is the exact process we are going through in southern California. Southern California we have had a Fox and Jacobs brand for several years and that is proving to be a big benefit to us as we kind of convert most of our neighborhoods to a Fox and Jacobs-type product. Very value-oriented. Very efficient product with very good turns and good affordability.</p>
 
<p><a href="http://tinyurl.com/2dz9o4">Subprime could create global crisis.</a> The world is one "Bear-like" away from liquidity freeze, Mark Zandi warns. </p>

<p>Home prices will fall 10% from the peak nationally, more in the bubble regions in California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona and Washington, D.C. </p>

<p>Home sales could bottom later this year, home construction could bottom early next year, and house prices could bottom late next year. It'll be 2010 before the housing market could be termed "normal." </p>

<p>About 17% of total mortgage debt is at risk, totaling about $2.5 trillion in subprime, Alt-A and jumbo debt. About $1.4 trillion is at serious risk of default. Investors will lose about $113 billion as $460 billion worth of mortgages default. </p>

<p>About 20% of the subprime loans written in the last half of 2006 will fail, with the peak of the defaults not coming until 2011. A "significant number" of these borrowers never made a single payment. </p>

<p>More than 2.5 million first mortgages will default this year and next year. Subprime borrowers will experience significant financial distress. </p>

<p>The U.S. economy will grow less than 3% annualized through the middle of 2009. A healthy job market should prevent a recession, although the jobless rate will likely rise to 5% from 4.5% by the end of the year. </p>

<p>Consumer spending has already slowed and will slow further.</p>
 
Many of you saw this earlier





<a href="http://www.slate.com/id/2171235/">The Real Morons of Orange County</a>

I don't know if you read the last paragraph...





"It's not surprising that Irvine is a center of reckless real estate lending and borrowing. It's a classic industry cluster of the type seen in areas that lack natural resources. Detroit's auto manufacturers encouraged the local growth of auto parts suppliers, companies that finance auto purchases, and publications that cover the auto industry. In Silicon Valley in the 1990s, the people who created dot-com companies were co-located with the venture capitalists who funded them, the investment bankers and brokers who helped take them public, and with many of the investors who got killed when the NASDAQ tanked. Irvine may have built up a diversified economy, but it remains a company town—one whose fortunes are highly leveraged to the highly leveraged real estate industry."
 
<p><a href="http://www.flickr.com/search/?q=orange+county+fire+&s=rec">The fire</a>.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ocregister.com/news/blaze-fire-firefighters-1789500-very-dry">Story</a>.</p>
 
<a href="http://www.ocfa.org/ocfamain.asp?pgn1=3">Here</a> is the link to the OCFA info page for the fire.





<a href="http://www.sigalert.com/incidents.asp?Region=Orange+County&id=980120635#selected">Here</a> is the County/CHP log.
 
<p>Whew, my wife just made it home before the 261 was closed!</p>

<p>I saw the thing start up right around 5:30, after leaving the new Michael's in the Tustin District. The smoke plume grew awfully fast.</p>

<p>I assumed it was in Anaheim Hills but had no idea it was actually much closer than that. </p>
 
Not quite housing-related, but a nice <a href="http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-BondTurmoil0707-sort.html">synopsis</a> of credit contraction victims.
 
As you can see from that list it isn't just mortgage related and this will severely constrain economic growth. I hate being a bear but this is what you get when you shoot yourself in the foot.
 
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