Headlines...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/09/real_estate/FHA_ban_on_downpayment_help/index.htm?postversion=2008060914">FHA would ban down-payment help</a>



The headline (at the time I copied the url) reads: "FHA would ban down-payment help" even though most of the article is Federal Housing Administration Commissioner Brian Montgomery defending FHA from taking a bunch of crap loans. Yes, there is some talk there at the end of the article about doing away with the down-payment help based on the default records they have recorded.



I think I'm still in shock from finding what appears to be a voice of reason in a government position.
 
<a href="http://http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25060719">Debt Stress Causing Health Problems</a>



On the one hand, I have a hard time sympathizing with people who bought more house than they could afford out of stupidity. On the other, I'm truly saddened by the widespread implications this housing crisis is hurting society.
 
Don't know if anyone noticed, but the drop in the spread between the 2 year and 10 year was the largest in over 25 years. That's a standard deviation of <strong>5</strong> over the last 30 years norm.


It's gotta make you wonder who the counterparty is on a few interest rate swaps and who is trading spreads these days.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1213180629]Don't know if anyone noticed, but the drop in the spread between the 2 year and 10 year was the largest in over 25 years. That's a standard deviation of <strong>5</strong> over the last 30 years norm.


It's gotta make you wonder who the counterparty is on a few interest rate swaps and who is trading spreads these days.</blockquote>


What do you suspect?
 
<a href="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/06/enhanced-mise-1.html">I am just now getting to this post by Barry on the Misery Index</a>.



He takes the typical misery index of inflation and unemployment, but adds in housing prices.



http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/pains_u_index.PNG



With inflation rising, and unemployment increasing, it looks like this will hurt the housing market worse than the 90s. It's not like I have been saying that a few years ago, or anything like that though. :roll:



BTW, I really, really wish I had a Bloomberg terminal.
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1213181387][quote author="awgee" date=1213180629]Don't know if anyone noticed, but the drop in the spread between the 2 year and 10 year was the largest in over 25 years. That's a standard deviation of <strong>5</strong> over the last 30 years norm.


It's gotta make you wonder who the counterparty is on a few interest rate swaps and who is trading spreads these days.</blockquote>


What do you suspect?</blockquote>


I suspect major pain. But, I have no idea who is experiencing it. Interest Rate Swaps are over the counter and therefore opaque.


Gman - I have been wanting a Bloomburg also, although I would not have the slightest idea what to do with it. I can just imagine how much money I could lose with all that information.
 
[quote author="profette" date=1213253008] <em>House refuses to extend unemployment benefits</em></blockquote>


For some reason I find that statement funny.







From the WSJ Online: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121314811278463077.html?mod=yhoofront">Some Buy a New Home to Bail on the Old</a>



<em>Next month, Michelle Augustine plans to walk away from her four-bedroom house in a Sacramento, Calif., subdivision and let the property fall into foreclosure. But before doing so, she hopes to lock in the purchase of another home nearby.



.....



Homeowners are able to pull off this gambit -- which some lenders and real-estate agents call mortgage fraud -- by taking advantage of mortgage-lending practices that allow them to buy a new primary residence before their existing residence has been sold.





....</em>
 
Infectious Exuberance



<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200807/housing">http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200807/housing</a>



Financial bubbles are like epidemics? and we should treat them both the same way.



by Robert J. Shiller
 
<strong>This is for all of us early skeptics:

</strong>



<blockquote>In this sort of environment, skeptics have a hard time of it. No one has perfect information, and people?quite rationally?infer a great deal from the actions of others. As a bubble expands, some skeptics begin to disregard their own judgment because they feel that everyone else simply couldn?t be wrong. Contrarian voices become softer, which only makes it harder for the remaining skeptics to justify their views. Over time, the quality of information that can be gleaned from the behavior of others becomes worse and worse.</blockquote>
<strong>



And points out the value of the internet/blogs for bringing together the skeptics so that we don't get drowned out in our isolation in the modern era (thanks IR!)</strong>
 
Today was the rally that wasn't. Dow up 57 points. Woohoo.


Oil closes at $136.74. The 10 year at 4.21%. The dollar still under 74.


B-52 Ben, Paulson, and Plosser spent yesterday and today jawboning up the dollar and this is the best they can muster? And Lieberman treatens a bill limiting the amount of commodities futures that institutions can go long.


And oil goes up? Lookout.
 
<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20080613/bs_bw/0825b4089066237592;_ylt=AufN04hziityW4TnMbDSg9ayBhIF">The World According to 'The Bear' </a>



Now [Rob Arnott} and his wife, Marina, are living in a beachfront property -- but he rents it. His skepticism about equities, it turns out, is paired with a weak forecast for real estate. His says it makes more sense to rent a $5 million house for $8,000 a month than to be saddled with a huge mortgage and high property taxes: "That's the situation in coastal (Orange County)."
 
check out the parts in bold







Top Stories

As of 2 hours, 15 minutes ago

Stocks Rally to End Week - AP

Wall Street ended a turbulent week with a sharp gain Friday <strong>after government readings on inflation and a drop in oil prices eased worries about the effect of rising prices on consumers.</strong> The advance lifted the Dow Jones industrial average more than 165 points.



NBC's Tim Russert Dies at 58 of Apparent Heart Attack - AP

Yahoo Seeks Google's Aid After Microsoft Talks Die - AP

US Foreclosure Filings Surge 48 Percent in May - AP

Oil Slips to $135 After OPEC Questions High Price - AP

<strong>Inflation Jumps by Biggest Amount in Six Months - AP </strong>AIG Could Hold Emergency Meeting Over CEO - Reuters

Corn Jumps to Record for 6th Day on Midwest Floods - AP

China Said Discouraging Tourist Travel to France - AP

Wall Street and Main Street: In the Same Boat and Sinking Together
 
Those headlines are schizoid.



Or, the words "cognitive dissonance" come to mind.



Surely whoever is propping up wall street is getting tired of it,

or running out of money?



The only people who are doing well in my area are the bankruptcy lawyers

down the hall.



And gov't employees, until they get cut due to falling revenue.



All the other small business people say they are slow.



I think it is a good thing that the fact that the gov't statistics

are deeply flawed are coming to the notice of people far down

the information food chain, who normal wouldn't notice. Healthy

skepticism is a very good thing.



A number of people have remarked to me that the restaurants seem much emptier.
 
I juist heard this boom boom noise, and it was the sound of the sonic

booms of the shuttle landing. Ah, life in Brevard County, in the outer

circle of Florida real estate doom.



Calculated Risk sez that the NAR was off on home sales in New Jersey

by 30%. OOoooopssss.
 
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