I have received a few pms lately asking my opinion on the near term and longer term price action of gold. With the sender?s permission, I am answering here instead of as a private message.
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First, I do not consider myself a goldbug. I have no particular fascination with the metal, nor do I consider gold to be a particularly good investment most of the time. Gold does not pay a dividend, nor does gold accumulate interest, nor can you eat it, nor can you live in it. Historically, gold is a retainer of value, especially during inflationary times.
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I think this country, and the world as a result of this country?s monetary policies, is beginning to experience increasing price inflation due to massive monetary inflation and the constant restrainment of price inflation through investment asset inflation. Examples of investment asset inflation would be equities, real estate, OTC derivatives, bonds, etc. Some, if not all of these investment assets are deflating, especially OTC derivatives, and the Federal Reserves response to asset deflation will be monetary inflation, on a historic scale. Examples of monetary inflation would be lowering of the overnight rate, lowering of the discount window, exchanging treasuries for asset backed securities, guaranteeing the Bear Sterns takeover by JPM,
and the $150 billion stimulus rebate, and there will be more. IMO, monetary inflation, price inflation, and dollar devaluation are inevitable. There is nothing the Federal Reserve or the US government can do about it now. A huge boulder has started rolling down a large hill and the only thing that can stop it is the bottom of the hill.
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IMO, politicians and bankers are able to print money and retain power through a fiat currency and fractional reserve central banking system. Rothschild once said, and I am paraphrasing, ?Give me control over a country?s money, and I care not what government is in control.? I do not think either politicians or power brokers will allow this country to revert to a gold based or precious metal based monetary system. Politicians and bankers can not create gold, but they can create fiat currency. I do not see any reason why they would give up that power. Do you?
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I have conflicting opinions on the future of stock prices. On the one hand, a deflationary environment will have a deleterious effect on a consumer economy, and on the other hand, as the Fed prints more money, it has to go someplace and the easiest place for it to go is through the stock market.
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Which brings us to the big question. How high will the price of gold go? Or low?
To answer that, I prefer to consider the historic value of precious metals vs. the historic value of fiat currencies. All fiat currencies in history have reverted to their inherent value, which is zero. Historically, gold and pms have been used as a store of wealth or value, especially when people do not trust currency or government. So, to try and figure our what gold will be worth in terms of dollars, I find to be of marginal use. I prefer to think in relative terms. I think it best to consider what assets will be valued during a highly inflationary period, and my answer is commodities. I think we are six years into a 20 year commodities bull market, relative to other asset classes. Why 20 years? Because that is the average length of time for a commodity bull market. If I knew how to invest in wheat, and rice, and oil, I would. But I don?t, so I own gold and precious metals. Actually I am slightly invested in some Canadian oil stocks.
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So, my best GUESS on what the top price of gold will be in dollar terms? $1700 or whatever price gold is selling for when the Federal Reserve again fools the public and pretends to connect the dollar to gold. (They won?t really, but they will come up with some convoluted, complicated smoke and mirrors that will fool the American public into thinking that the dollar is tied to gold). Or if the Fed does not pretend to connect the dollar to gold, one ounce of gold will approach one share of the Dow. What I mean by that is if the DOW is $10,000 in dollar terms, then gold will approach $10,000 per ounce in dollar terms. I have no idea what the DOW will be. Historically, one ounce of gold approaches a 1:1 ratio with a share of the Dow just before it crashes. And when gold crashes, it really goes off a cliff.
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I think I answered all the questions asked of me, even if indirectly. :cheese: