Headlines...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="awgee" date=1212005029]That looks like the front side of El Capitan.</blockquote>


<img src="http://www.peakware.com/photos/72b.jpg" alt="" />



Pretty close.
 
<a href="http://www.housingwire.com/2008/05/29/libor-mess-promises-to-squeeze-arm-borrowers/">More on the LIBOR mess by Paul over at housingwire.</a>
 
Interesting video link posted under the blog comments today



<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeBSWI9sF8&feature=related">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeBSWI9sF8&feature=related</a>
 
New Overdue Home Loans Swamp Effort to Fix Defaults (Update3)

<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQHLPZSdKZoU&refer=home">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQHLPZSdKZoU&refer=home</a>
 
Sales of foreclosures are on the rise

<a href="http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/news/la-re-market1-2008jun01,0,3863370.story?page=1">http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/news/la-re-market1-2008jun01,0,3863370.story?page=1</a>



"It costs a bank about $5,000 a month to hold a property," he said. "A $650,000 to $700,000 appraisal a year ago in some areas is now worth about $350,000. It took a while for the banks to adjust their mentality to that. Right now, anything under $300,000 is a hot price.



"It's a seller's market with REOs. Once a bank accepts an offer, they send out addendums that are nonnegotiable. If you don't want to sign them, fine, they've got other buyers. The addendums say you'll close by 'X' date, and if you don't close by then and it's your fault you'll pay a $100 to $150 penalty per day. They choose the service providers for escrow and title."
 
Miller of Lennar was reported on the local Miami NPR station to be making only a million bucks this

year, as opposed to ummm, 10 mil last year and had to hand back millions since the company

was doing so poorly.



Over at Calculated Risk, people were saying that the state of California was due to run out of

money this August. Any comments, Irvinites?



I was talking to an individual at the M-Dade State atty's office who was extremely proud

that they were prosecuting a whole 60 people for real estate fraud of various kinds. But,

F. I said, this isn't 10% of those that need prosecuting, heck it probably isn't 1%. No resourses,

he said, this was a mere property/money crime. Murder, etc, apparently comes first.



The fraud I'm seeing in my teeny weeny practice gets worse and more incredible

every day.
 
<span style="font-size: 13px;">Homes in foreclosure top 1 million </span>



<strong>Mortgage bankers report hits grim a benchmark in first quarter, showing a record number of homes in jeopardy.</strong>



NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- More than one million homes are now in foreclosure, the highest rate ever recorded, according to a trade group which warned Thursday that number will continue to climb.



The Mortgage Bankers Association's first quarter report showed that a record 2.5% of all loans being serviced by its members are now in foreclosure, which works out to about 1.1 million homes. That's up from the 2% of loans, or about 938,000 homes, that were in foreclosure at the end of 2007.
 
I have received a few pms lately asking my opinion on the near term and longer term price action of gold. With the sender?s permission, I am answering here instead of as a private message.


<p>

First, I do not consider myself a goldbug. I have no particular fascination with the metal, nor do I consider gold to be a particularly good investment most of the time. Gold does not pay a dividend, nor does gold accumulate interest, nor can you eat it, nor can you live in it. Historically, gold is a retainer of value, especially during inflationary times.


<p>

I think this country, and the world as a result of this country?s monetary policies, is beginning to experience increasing price inflation due to massive monetary inflation and the constant restrainment of price inflation through investment asset inflation. Examples of investment asset inflation would be equities, real estate, OTC derivatives, bonds, etc. Some, if not all of these investment assets are deflating, especially OTC derivatives, and the Federal Reserves response to asset deflation will be monetary inflation, on a historic scale. Examples of monetary inflation would be lowering of the overnight rate, lowering of the discount window, exchanging treasuries for asset backed securities, guaranteeing the Bear Sterns takeover by JPM,

and the $150 billion stimulus rebate, and there will be more. IMO, monetary inflation, price inflation, and dollar devaluation are inevitable. There is nothing the Federal Reserve or the US government can do about it now. A huge boulder has started rolling down a large hill and the only thing that can stop it is the bottom of the hill.

<p>


IMO, politicians and bankers are able to print money and retain power through a fiat currency and fractional reserve central banking system. Rothschild once said, and I am paraphrasing, ?Give me control over a country?s money, and I care not what government is in control.? I do not think either politicians or power brokers will allow this country to revert to a gold based or precious metal based monetary system. Politicians and bankers can not create gold, but they can create fiat currency. I do not see any reason why they would give up that power. Do you?

<p>


I have conflicting opinions on the future of stock prices. On the one hand, a deflationary environment will have a deleterious effect on a consumer economy, and on the other hand, as the Fed prints more money, it has to go someplace and the easiest place for it to go is through the stock market.

<p>


Which brings us to the big question. How high will the price of gold go? Or low?




To answer that, I prefer to consider the historic value of precious metals vs. the historic value of fiat currencies. All fiat currencies in history have reverted to their inherent value, which is zero. Historically, gold and pms have been used as a store of wealth or value, especially when people do not trust currency or government. So, to try and figure our what gold will be worth in terms of dollars, I find to be of marginal use. I prefer to think in relative terms. I think it best to consider what assets will be valued during a highly inflationary period, and my answer is commodities. I think we are six years into a 20 year commodities bull market, relative to other asset classes. Why 20 years? Because that is the average length of time for a commodity bull market. If I knew how to invest in wheat, and rice, and oil, I would. But I don?t, so I own gold and precious metals. Actually I am slightly invested in some Canadian oil stocks.


<p>

So, my best GUESS on what the top price of gold will be in dollar terms? $1700 or whatever price gold is selling for when the Federal Reserve again fools the public and pretends to connect the dollar to gold. (They won?t really, but they will come up with some convoluted, complicated smoke and mirrors that will fool the American public into thinking that the dollar is tied to gold). Or if the Fed does not pretend to connect the dollar to gold, one ounce of gold will approach one share of the Dow. What I mean by that is if the DOW is $10,000 in dollar terms, then gold will approach $10,000 per ounce in dollar terms. I have no idea what the DOW will be. Historically, one ounce of gold approaches a 1:1 ratio with a share of the Dow just before it crashes. And when gold crashes, it really goes off a cliff.

<p>


I think I answered all the questions asked of me, even if indirectly. :cheese:
 
No comments about the stock market?



Somebody on NPR was asked how come it didn't go even lower?



The respondent said, the reason was the mkt closed for the day.
 
<em>"But Jay Brinkmann, research chief at the mortgage bankers' group, says the problem in California is that delinquent loans have less of a chance of being cured than in other parts of the country because of the severity of the price declines here. In other words, delinquencies are more likely to turn into foreclosures in the Golden State".</em>







<a href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/06/california-wher.html">California....where troubled loans go to die</a>



Read the comments after the article....hilarious !
 
So, you think you can get your money out of your bank, eh?



<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aWaReGVrnTHk&refer=home">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aWaReGVrnTHk&refer=home</a>
 
[quote author="Trooper" date=1212986642]<em>"But Jay Brinkmann, research chief at the mortgage bankers' group, says the problem in California is that delinquent loans have less of a chance of being cured than in other parts of the country because of the severity of the price declines here. In other words, delinquencies are more likely to turn into foreclosures in the Golden State".</em>







<a href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/06/california-wher.html">California....where troubled loans go to die</a>



Read the comments after the article....hilarious !</blockquote>
<em>

"Pretty darn exciting-- isn't it? No, not really, not at all. In 2007 Brentwood had six residential property foreclosures. Santa Monica 90402 had zero foreclosures. Santa Monica 90403 had three, 90404 had five, 90405 had eight and 90401 had one.



In other Westside neighborhoods such as Playa Del Rey, there were four foreclosures in 2007. In Marina Del Rey there were seven and in Venice there were three. The neighborhoods of Westwood and Mar Vista/Palms were a little less fortunate. Westwood had fourteen foreclosures and Mar Vista had seventeen. Beverly Hills has remained strong with only four foreclosures.



This information and the rest of this article is on my web-site:www.westsidesimon.com





... go to the blog."</em>

<a href="http://www.santamonicarealestatesearch.com/">Wow! The stupid realturd Kool-Aid drunk factor is alive and well in the WestSide.</a> What a freakin idiot.



Me dumb... let me use 2007 foreclosure stats, NODs and NTSs may be current, but me dumb, they aren't useful. Me dumb, me failed jr. high statistics, and basic math. Me thinks while NODs and NTSs are five times as high, it really isn't exciting. But me dumb.



Santa Monica has 11 homes scheduled for the auction this M O N T H... Good job dummy. Westwood has 7, Mar Vista 7, and Brentwood 10. Yeah... 35 total in 4 of the 7 areas he mentions, oh... and that is for the MONTH, not the year.



What an idiot. And, I thought thoughtless was pathetic on Lansner's blog, this make her look smart.
 
The MSM is reporting that the housing market is in a recovery. <strong>April sales have increased over March sales.</strong>
 
In any other industry the term "sales" means gross revenue and margin is listed on a separate line. In real estate things are a little more flexible, since margins are a lot more vague than commissions.



If average or median sales price goes up, then the headline reads "Sales are increasing"(!!!)

If number of homes sold goes up, then the headline reads "Sales are increasing"(!!!)

If neither price nore volume go up, then the headline reads "We've hit the bottom."(!!!)
 
[quote author="lawyerliz" date=1213072645]It doesn't matter that the previous month is lower than pond scum,

a slight improvement means all is rosy.</blockquote>


April sales are greater than March sales. Uh-huh. April sales are always greater than March sales every year, good or bad. The MSM mentions, but does not headline, April sales for 2008 are down by 14% compared with April sales of 2007, which were less than April sales for 2006. In other words April sales for 2008 suck.
 
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