Headlines...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>I think this piece of news will cause the dow to raise 300 points. . . </p>

<p>"WASHINGTON - Employers buffeted by talk of recession slashed 80,000 jobs in March, the most in five years and the third straight month of losses. </p>

<p>At the same time, the national unemployment rate rose from 4.8 percent to 5.1 percent, the clearest signal yet that the economy might already be shrinking..."</p>

<p><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080404/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy">news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080404/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy</a></p>
 
<em>>>You may say, "But that is not smart. You should buy when prices are low and sell when prices are high." Well, you are absolutly correct, but the majority does exactly the opposite of what is best. That is why there are markets. That is the real reason the rich get richer and the masses don't.</em>





That is why, despite all the fancy mathematical models, economics is a <em>social </em>science, and not a science.
 
Lenders Swamped By Foreclosures Let Homeowners Stay (Update1)

<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOluOO8Vy0gc&refer=home">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOluOO8Vy0gc&refer=home</a></p>

<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>

<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
 
<p>81% in Poll Say Nation Is Headed on Wrong Track </p>

<p>http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/04/us/04poll.html?em&ex=1207454400&en=1aa0671c2ffcadfa&ei=5087%0A</p>
 
<p>The bloomberg article just posted by Anonymous has some interesting details. I wonder if the already high foreclosure numbers we are seeing in OC are in reality artificially depressed? Thoughts?</p>

<p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOluOO8Vy0gc&refer=home">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOluOO8Vy0gc&refer=home</a></p>

<p>The number of borrowers at least 90 days late on their home loans rose to 3.6 percent at the end of December, the highest in at least five years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington. That figure, for the first time, is almost double the 2 percent who have been foreclosed on.</p>

<p>...</p>

<p>Lenders who allow owners to stay in their homes are distorting the record foreclosure rate and delaying the worst of the housing decline, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, a unit of New York-based Moody's Corp. These borrowers will eventually push the number of delinquencies even higher and send more homes onto an already glutted market. </p>

<p>``We don't have a sense of the magnitude of what's really going on because the whole process is being delayed,'' Zandi said in an interview. ``Looking at the data, we see the problems, but they are probably measurably greater than we think.'' </p>
 
I think the foreclosure problem is far worse than what is showing up in the MLS: <a title="Permanent Link to Inventory Panic" rel="bookmark" href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/03/25/inventory-panic/" linkindex="11" set="yes">Inventory Panic.</a>
 
<p>There are rumors reported on Calculated Risk about mysterious things at WaMu. All the loan officers in a Cali branch walking out. Fired? Quit? Disgusted. A title co rep wanted to speak with them, and couldn't find out anything.</p>

<p>You guys hear anything?</p>

<p>And Countrywide was given a D in a recent rating. Will check the Countrywide thread.</p>
 
Recession not depression







<object width="325" height="250"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/youtube" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="325" height="250"></embed></object>
 
<em>That is why, despite all the fancy mathematical models, economics is a social science, and not a science.</em>



There will be a change in this. Robert Shiller started it, and it needs to be taken to another level. More consumer feedback, historical facts, and the reality of this mess will be written/studied/dissected about for years to come.
 
Why oh, why do people have to change formats.



I don't understand where everything went.



I can't figure out what I read, and what I haven't.

I don't like the posts being oldest to newes.



I am very stupid at this stuff, and I don't like figuring it out.



Can we have the old format back for me?



I don't even like the colors that were chosen. Or, rather the non-colors.



Going over to Calculated Risk now.
 
It says I posted, but nothing'<span style="color: green;"></span>s there.



How about an explanation for the computer illiterate?



I clicked on green, but nothing turned green.
 
I figured out the old format immediately. :-S



I don't like not seeing the smileys on my posting.



There was nothing on Calculated Risk.



I'm going to go write to my girlfriend who is interested in her chickens and not at all interested in the economy or real estate, and then I'm going to go read a novel.



Oh, well, I was spending too much time here anyway.
 
Well, I guess it is not Greenspan's fault because he said so. . .



<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/23948760">http://www.cnbc.com/id/23948760</a>



"Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has defended himself from charges that easy U.S. monetary policy created the current credit crisis by inflating a housing bubble, and instead blamed professional investors."
 
<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/04/07/oc-home-demand-rises-for-1st-time-in-18-months/#comments">O.C. home demand rises for 1st time in 18 months</a>

<em>"Deals to buy O.C. existing homes and condos are now above year-ago levels for the first time since Sept. 22, 2005, says the math of Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo. As of last Thursday, there were 2,285 deals created in the past 30 days, Thomas? definition of demand. That?s 159 better (7%) than a year ago.



Thomas also calculates a ?market time? benchmark showing how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals put in escrow. By this logic, it would take 6.77 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 7.5 months two weeks earlier and near the 6.57 months of a year ago." ...</em>



Looks like a typical spring bounce to me. While looking at foreclosure numbers (and considering the fact that inventory and market time are both above what they were last year), it is hard to believe that a serious turnaround is at hand. IMO it has still been slow (by historical standards), just above the monumentally slow times we have been seeing.



On a similar note,



<a href="http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2008/04/07/oc-distressed-properties-for-sale-up-42-in-08/">O.C. distressed properties for sale up 42% in ?08</a>

<em>Home market watcher Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo reports that the number of O.C. distressed properties (homes listed by agents as foreclosures or short sales) was 5,335 last week, +114 vs. two weeks earlier or a +2.2% change. As a percent of all listed homes for sale, distressed properties were 34.5% of the market last week vs. 33.4% two weeks earlier.



Since Dec. 27, the number of distressed homes on the market has grown 1,584 (+42%); the non-distressed supply is 1,625 (-14%) lower.</em>
 
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