graphrix_IHB
New member
<p><a href="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/02/economicindicat.html">Economicindicators.gov to Stay Open</a>.</p>
Hat tip to Barry at the Big Picture
Hat tip to Barry at the Big Picture
Headlines...
- Thread starter effenheimer_IHB
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
lawyerliz_IHB
New member
<p>There is post on Calculated Risk about German banks--public ones, not private ones, and the German govt bailing them out to the tune of many, many, many Euos.</p>
<p>That before the bail outs they were weeks from going under.</p>
<p>I don't think European prosperity will save us. I read the same thing about the Spanish banks. The Germans loaded up on American subprine loans. Nobody held a gun to their head, but wars have been started for less.</p>
<p>That before the bail outs they were weeks from going under.</p>
<p>I don't think European prosperity will save us. I read the same thing about the Spanish banks. The Germans loaded up on American subprine loans. Nobody held a gun to their head, but wars have been started for less.</p>
WoeIsMe_IHB
New member
<strong>More Write-Downs Ahead?
</strong>
The Citigroup research of Meredith Whitney, executive director of CIBC World Markets, triggered a staggering global selloff, and now she's warning that banks could face additional write-downs of up to $70B if bond insurers are downgraded.
<em>"Best case...
15% downside to financials..
Worst case...
50% downside to financials.."
</em><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=659529306&play=1"><strong>Link to video</strong></a><em>
</em>
</strong>
The Citigroup research of Meredith Whitney, executive director of CIBC World Markets, triggered a staggering global selloff, and now she's warning that banks could face additional write-downs of up to $70B if bond insurers are downgraded.
<em>"Best case...
15% downside to financials..
Worst case...
50% downside to financials.."
</em><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=659529306&play=1"><strong>Link to video</strong></a><em>
</em>
Anonymous_IHB
New member
<p>Rescues for Homeowners in Debt Weighed </p>
<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/business/22homes.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1">http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/business/22homes.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1</a></p>
<p><img alt="" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/02/22/business/2008homesgraphic.jpg" /></p>
<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/business/22homes.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1">http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/business/22homes.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1</a></p>
<p><img alt="" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/02/22/business/2008homesgraphic.jpg" /></p>
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
That graph shows prices bottoming in the second quarter of 2009. That is not going to happen...
IR, how do you see that from the data presented?
The chart shows people with 0 or negative equity, not price data.
The number of people who are underwater can decline as a result of multiple causes, including:
1) Losing their home to foreclosure (voluntarily or involuntarily)
2) Short selling their house
3) Refinancing and bringing cash to the table (I know the numbers will be small, but it is possible)
4) The price of their home going up.
Given the sizable numbers of people that fall under 1 & 2, it is possible that number of people underwater will decline before the bottom.
But regardless of the accuracy of the chart, I don't see how one can infer that it represents price data alone.
The chart shows people with 0 or negative equity, not price data.
The number of people who are underwater can decline as a result of multiple causes, including:
1) Losing their home to foreclosure (voluntarily or involuntarily)
2) Short selling their house
3) Refinancing and bringing cash to the table (I know the numbers will be small, but it is possible)
4) The price of their home going up.
Given the sizable numbers of people that fall under 1 & 2, it is possible that number of people underwater will decline before the bottom.
But regardless of the accuracy of the chart, I don't see how one can infer that it represents price data alone.
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
"IR, how do you see that from the data presented?"
The graph shows the percentage of homeowners who are underwater declining starting in Q2 2009. The only way this can happen realistically is for prices to start rising. The other factors you mentioned will play a part. My comment was more on the assumptions used to create the chart. It appears one of their assumptions is a bottoming in Q2 2009, and I don't think that is going to happen.
The graph shows the percentage of homeowners who are underwater declining starting in Q2 2009. The only way this can happen realistically is for prices to start rising. The other factors you mentioned will play a part. My comment was more on the assumptions used to create the chart. It appears one of their assumptions is a bottoming in Q2 2009, and I don't think that is going to happen.
Based on the mortgage rate reset charts I have seen combined with the difficulty in refinancing in the market today, I expect to see a lot of people lose their houses to foreclosure or arrange short sales in the coming year.
I'm not saying that the chart is an accurate projection of the future, but if enough people lose their houses, it could offset the number of people who go underwater in a market that will still be declining in 2009.
I'm not saying that the chart is an accurate projection of the future, but if enough people lose their houses, it could offset the number of people who go underwater in a market that will still be declining in 2009.
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
I agree with your observation, but isn't that a bit like saying less people will be underwater because more will have already drowned?
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
There is a post on this subject over at Calculated Risk:
<a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/02/moodys-88-million-homeowners-underwater.html" linkindex="405" set="yes">Moody's: 8.8 million Homeowners Underwater</a>
<p>From Edmund L. Andrews and Louis Uchitelle at the NY Times: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/business/22homes.html" linkindex="406">Rescues for Homeowners in Debt Weighed</a> (hat tip SC) </p>
Not since the Depression has a larger share of Americans owed more on their homes than they are worth. With the collapse of the housing boom, nearly 8.8 million homeowners, or 10.3 percent of the total, are underwater. That is more than double the percentage just a year ago, according to a new estimate of the damage by Moody’s Economy.com. This article is mostly about the various bailout plans being proposed. But there is this comment (something I've been meaining to mention) on the impact of the housing bust on mobility in the U.S.: People cannot move easily to jobs in other cities if they have to sell their homes at a loss. I haven't seen the new Economy.com estimate, but I think the 8.8 million number might be a little high. However it is definitely in the ballpark. The 10.3 percent is of total homes including second homes (see <a href="http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/qtr407/q407tab4.html" linkindex="407">here</a> for data). I think a better number would be the percent of owner occupied homes with mortgages: 8.8 million underwater of the 51.2 million owner occupied homes with mortgages (see <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTSubjectShowTablesServlet?_lang=en&_ts=213050250318" linkindex="408" set="yes">here</a>) is about 17% of homeowners with mortgages are underwater according to Economy.com.
<a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/02/moodys-88-million-homeowners-underwater.html" linkindex="405" set="yes">Moody's: 8.8 million Homeowners Underwater</a>
<p>From Edmund L. Andrews and Louis Uchitelle at the NY Times: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/business/22homes.html" linkindex="406">Rescues for Homeowners in Debt Weighed</a> (hat tip SC) </p>
Not since the Depression has a larger share of Americans owed more on their homes than they are worth. With the collapse of the housing boom, nearly 8.8 million homeowners, or 10.3 percent of the total, are underwater. That is more than double the percentage just a year ago, according to a new estimate of the damage by Moody’s Economy.com. This article is mostly about the various bailout plans being proposed. But there is this comment (something I've been meaining to mention) on the impact of the housing bust on mobility in the U.S.: People cannot move easily to jobs in other cities if they have to sell their homes at a loss. I haven't seen the new Economy.com estimate, but I think the 8.8 million number might be a little high. However it is definitely in the ballpark. The 10.3 percent is of total homes including second homes (see <a href="http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/qtr407/q407tab4.html" linkindex="407">here</a> for data). I think a better number would be the percent of owner occupied homes with mortgages: 8.8 million underwater of the 51.2 million owner occupied homes with mortgages (see <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTSubjectShowTablesServlet?_lang=en&_ts=213050250318" linkindex="408" set="yes">here</a>) is about 17% of homeowners with mortgages are underwater according to Economy.com.
lawyerliz_IHB
New member
<p>The word depression is cropping up more and more. Of course, you can't do a word count, like you can for recession, but use of the word recession is an excellent indicator of recessions.</p>
<p>In the 80s and early 90s I would occasionally close underwater sellers, but they were only underwater for a few hundred or few thousand dollars. Sometimes the realtors would cut their fees to make the transaction at least zero out.</p>
<p>In the 80s and early 90s I would occasionally close underwater sellers, but they were only underwater for a few hundred or few thousand dollars. Sometimes the realtors would cut their fees to make the transaction at least zero out.</p>
Anonymous_IHB
New member
<p>Bank Forecloses, Gets Robbed </p>
<p><a href="http://wsbradio.com/news/022208athensbank.html">http://wsbradio.com/news/022208athensbank.html</a></p>
<p>During the Thursday morning holdup, the suspect told a teller at the Regions Bank on Prince Avenue -- quote -- "you took my house, now I'm going to take your money." </p>
<p><a href="http://wsbradio.com/news/022208athensbank.html">http://wsbradio.com/news/022208athensbank.html</a></p>
<p>During the Thursday morning holdup, the suspect told a teller at the Regions Bank on Prince Avenue -- quote -- "you took my house, now I'm going to take your money." </p>
socalhousingbubble_IHB
New member
<p>So he robbed them twice! </p>
<p>SCHB</p>
<p>SCHB</p>
Anonymous_IHB
New member
And both times he got/will get a place to live ... though the second home will be much smaller, with bars, but it comes with free food! (albeit, not very good food...no gourmet kitchen I guess )
ns2524_IHB
New member
<p>It also comes with a boyfriend.</p>
Anonymous_IHB
New member
<p><strong>Homeowners Losing Equity Lines</strong>
As House Values Fall, Some Banks Withdraw Credit</p>
<p>http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022202987_pf.html</p>
As House Values Fall, Some Banks Withdraw Credit</p>
<p>http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022202987_pf.html</p>
lawyerliz_IHB
New member
A whole thread on Calculated risk on this. The homeowners may not be grateful, and may be harmed in some cases, but actually I think this is doing them a favor but preventing them from buying crap.
southoctracker_IHB
New member
I agree...theoretically you would assume people would be smart enough to show financial prudence themselves. But we've seen time after time again that that is obviously a pipedream, so it's probably best to have the banks pull the credit line since people can't seem to take care of themselves.