Foreclosure and distressed property topics

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Banks are owned. Literally. They've been borrowing <u>30 BILLION</u> (that's not a typo) A DAY (also not a typo) since St Patrick's Day when the FED opened the TAF to non-commercial banks. 30 Billion a day, and still no easing in the credit markets. No easing in the structured debt securities market. No interest in mortgage-backed paper of any kind. This should scare us shitless.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1207629948]The credit crunch is far worse than most people realize. Lenders are just not lending right now. They are hording capital and bracing for the next round of write downs (and the one after that and the one after that.)</blockquote>


I have a real question. Not being snarky. I want to understand something.



IR and many say lenders are not lending. And I do not doubt for a second that IR and the folks who say that know of what they speak.



But, there is Ipop and his increasing escrow openings in Irvine. And I do not doubt for a second that Ipop knows of what he speaks and has the data to back it up.



So, how are the two rectified? How can they both be true at the same time? How can all these buyers be getting loans if it is so difficult to get loans?
 
I would assume, Awgee, that the people buying right now would be able to buy in ANY market. We are talking 20% plus down payments, good credit and full doc. Possibly stated income but verified assets. Most of the "fringe" Alt-A borrowers, Sub Prime borrowers, and little down payment borrowers have been eliminated. Banks HAVE to originate mortgages or they won't make any money. The only people buying loans on the secondary market are the GSE's, so the market is still just as bad as it was in August. If it's not sold to Fannie or Freddie it is being held on the banks portfolio.
 
Because, Skek, those people who can qualify are not representative of the majority of people. The majority of people who post here probably either make close to or over 6 figures a year or know several people who do. Yet how can the median HOUSEHOLD income for OC be around 80k? Because we don't represent the majority of people in Orange County.



The credit markets are not anywhere near normal. They are virtually non-existent with the exception of conforming paper purchased by the GSE's. Credit spreads are still just as bad as they were in August. Banks are still not willing to lend to each other (without major concerns) even though they are borrowing 30 billion a day from the FED. Last week they averaged 38.1 billion a day borrowed.



Banks, specifically mortgage banks, are in a catch 22 situation right now. If they continue to originate loans, they are taking on more risk. They are attempting to shore up balance sheets as fast as possible. This is why there are still relatively high yielding savings accounts and CD's out there. Banks are also sucking up money from the FED like an angry black hole just so they can cover loan-loss reserves. On the flip side, they need to continue to originate more and more loans to make money. The bulk of the money comes at the point of origination. A lot of loans that would previously have been sold on the secondary market are instead being retained on the banks books as "held-for-sale" until the market opens up and investors start buying again. If they start buying. Big gamble.



Some servicing banks won't even underwrite certain conforming loans that are considered too risky, since the bank is responsible for servicing the loan. Imagine that. Fannie and Freddie will buy the loan but the servicing bank doesn't want to originate it.
 
[quote author="skek" date=1207699773]*<em>skek hits the imaginary "thanks" button, thinking that someone is going to hit the "ignore" button out of habit and wonder why certain regulars no longer post on IHB...</em>*</blockquote>


You know Skek, there is at least one thread where that "Ignore" button might come in handy. I probably don't need to tell you which one. ;-)
 
[quote author="cdm" date=1207632183]Hey graph,



How about some completed March TS, NOD, and NTS numbers? ;)



We're jonesing for our fix!</blockquote>


Alright, alright... I know I am slacking here. Here are the March numbers. They were down for NODs and foreclosures, but damn did the NTSs increase. Some records were broken too. All % are on the per day basis. And, I am still pissed the OCR never corrected last month's per day number.



NODs 2130, or 101.4 per day, a -8.1% decrease.



NTSs 1570, or 74.8 per day, a <strong>+76%</strong> increase.



Foreclosures 729, or 34.7 per day, a -12.7% decrease.



Watch the bulls call a bottom here. Just remind them of the NTS number, and how that will mean more foreclosures.



Using the actual DQ numbers for Jan. and Feb., and my March estimate, then the NODs broke a record for the most is a quarter ever, with 6221 vs. 4486 in the Q1 of 1996. This translates to a 1:99 owner occupied home ratio, compared to 1:125 of 1996.



Foreclosures for Q1 were 2263, translating to a 1:272 owner occupied home ratio, vs. Q1 1996 of 1:324, but still not as bad as Q3 of 1996 at 1:266. With the NTSs increasing, I think this record will be broken in Q2. However, the 2008 Q1 number of 2263 was higher than the all time high of Q3 1996 of 2105. Hopefully the OCR reports that both the NOD and foreclosure numbers broke records for the all time highs of 1996. That way you could use reverse psychology on the bulls, and say technically the foreclosures didn't break a record for a quarter... yet.
 
I forgot to mention, the NTS number for March, may be around the resale sales number. This is huge, because it could be higher than any record. I will email Matt Padilla tomorrow, er later today, to see if he can dig up the actual DataQuick NTS numbers vs. sales numbers. I am 99% positive, the quarterly number shattered the records of 95 or 96 NTSs vs. resales homes or total home sales volume, since the volume then was a lot higher than now. I mean, Q1 1996 had 5235 resale home sales, and 6637 total home sales. I would almost be willing to bet IR's down payment fund, that the NTS 2008 Q1 number vs. total home sales was worse than Q1 1996. Sorry IR, but I am that confident it is true. And, I hate playing with other people's money, but this is better than buying puts on New Century the Friday before the announcement of their SEC investigation.



Oh... and EvaL and Skek, please see me in my chambers. I will not tolerate this kind of behavior in my thread. ;-)
 
Holy cow. Check out <a href="http://hotpads.com/map/index.htm#lat=33.6729828100206&lon;=-117.826377868652&zoom=19&background=aerial&areaBorders=heatMapForclosuresPerCapita&visible;=&listingTypes=sale,newHome,rental&loan=30,0.0642,0">this map</a> of the foreclosure rate per capita.
 
[quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1207790536]Holy cow. Check out <a href="http://hotpads.com/map/index.htm#lat=33.6729828100206&lon;=-117.826377868652&zoom=19&background=aerial&areaBorders=heatMapForclosuresPerCapita&visible;=&listingTypes=sale,newHome,rental&loan=30,0.0642,0">this map</a> of the foreclosure rate per capita.</blockquote>


Irvine is a sea of tranquility in the midst of the SoCal bloodbath.
 
I was looking over the newest foreclosure report <a href="http://www.nefcortez.com/home-files/Foreclosures/Archives/OC-TS/OC_TS_Report_04-07-2008.pdf">posted on this site</a>. It lags, so we're really looking at many properties on that list that have already gone back to the bank at auction.



I was shocked at the number on this list in Laguna Niguel...far more than I have seen before in one report. Same thing with Coto. As recently as a few months ago you would be hard-pressed to see one of these with 4 or 5 LN properties on it. This one has 30+ houses just in 92677, and 8 in Coto. Amazing.



Oh, and 5 on here in Laguna Beach. It used to be rare to see anything in Laguna Beach make the list.
 
[quote author="JNinWB" date=1207799947][quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1207790536]Holy cow. Check out <a href="http://hotpads.com/map/index.htm#lat=33.6729828100206&lon;=-117.826377868652&zoom=19&background=aerial&areaBorders=heatMapForclosuresPerCapita&visible;=&listingTypes=sale,newHome,rental&loan=30,0.0642,0">this map</a> of the foreclosure rate per capita.</blockquote>


Irvine is a sea of tranquility in the midst of the SoCal bloodbath.</blockquote>


Perhaps you and I are not looking at the same map. The 92602 and 92620 are red. Red = ugly. The only blue areas on that map are open space and UCI.
 
<blockquote>Lenders are just not lending right now.</blockquote>


Oh Merchants of Doom, I just don't see this. Every day, my email queue is flooded with program offerings. Granted, guidelines have tightened and turntimes have expanded, but plenty of lenders are lending lots 'n lots of money to creditworthy borrowers.
 
[quote author="SoCalGal" date=1207818452]<blockquote>Lenders are just not lending right now.</blockquote>


Oh Merchants of Doom, I just don't see this. Every day, my email queue is flooded with program offerings. Granted, guidelines have tightened and turntimes have expanded, but plenty of lenders are lending lots 'n lots of money to creditworthy borrowers.</blockquote>


Can you get me a 3/1 IO ($378K, 65% LTV) for sub 5% with no lender costs SCG? I'd really love 4.75%... [IPO licks his chops]
 
<blockquote>Can you get me a 3/1 IO ($378K, 65% LTV) for sub 5% with no lender costs SCG? I?d really love 4.75%? [IPO licks his chops]</blockquote>


Actually, if you can live without the IO part, then I can tell you where to get 4.75%. But, you will have to promise me you will never leave Skek all by himself like that again. I understand why you love Irvine so much now, you escaped. ;-)
 
Ok, here is the report for Miami-Dade County, and a tale of some truly horrific

carelessness of lenders.



Sales are off 44%. Again. For March.



I went to 2 foreclosures this week, defending foreclosures, and plaintiff's attorney (the same

one, different lenders) didn't show up for the hearing!!



Also, everywhere I went people were dealing with stacks and stacks of foreclosure papers.

Getttin a certified copy of something--clerk had a stack. Recorders office to file a death certificate--

clerk dealing with a stack. Etc.



Horrendous carelessness. Lenders are endorsing loans in blank. Turns them into bearer bonds as

far as negotiability is concerned, in Fla at least. And claiming falsely they lost these notes. Ran into

2 situations in the past couple of weeks. In one, an original note, endorsed in blank, is sitting unprotected in a court file. I could have taken it. Anybody could. You have to sign the file out,

but nobody checks your id.
 
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