First sale at Stonegate?

[Irvinecommuter]

I haven't been tracking sales activity lately.  Just curious, which community (SG/PP/CV/PS) is pricing/selling at higher price/premium per sqft (excl. bigger lot premium).  I think builders probably know better then us which communities command a higher premium for new homes.  The sales activities and price/premium per sqft will show later which communities are more in demand.  Are they about the same right now?

It seems like some of those PS homes are selling at $450 to $500/sqft.

I posted about this a few pages back.  Here's the text:

"I don't have any exact #s, but I know in certain price points and SF, PP is outselling SG:  Harmony @PP is outselling Sausalito @SG.  Rosemist/Sagewood/Hawthorne @PP is outselling Arcadia @SG (not collectively, but individually)."

So sales activity wise - PP is blowing SG out of the water at the price points I'm tracking.  Harder to say about your $/SF question.  A lot of these $1.2M+ homes are being sold with upgrades, etc.  Hard to track.  Plus there's the MR difference.

Sales activity wise PP is newly released community so there is a significant/more pent up demand which means higher sales early on.  However, what matter is the $$$ per square feet and how that trend continues. 

True, there's obviously some of that - but take Sausalito for example.  It was released AFTER PP (and not selling).  Also, La Cresta in WB was released way before Arcadia or Sausalito or anything in PP and is selling well.  And for some buyers - a "new community" can be irrelevant.  They just want the best home that suits their needs.  People have discussed here why "new" may not always be better? construction noise, long build time, etc.  For me personally, I would much rather move in earlier (which was my option with Arcadia) versus my wait time now (in PP), but I ended up choosing PP regardless of the wait.

I agree with you on the Sausalito.  Those are some tiny as* lots.  When I went to their grand opening, I couldn't believe they were charging $1.5mm for those lots.  Home itself is ok.  They were trying to milk it and obviously made a wrong calc.  However, those will all sell out eventually. 

But, that kind of proves my point.  Was Shea Homes expecting that SG should be trading at higher premium compared to PP?  If you compare two homes Shea Homes built at both PP and SG, it seems like they were thinking that SG commanded higher premium and should have been priced at higher price point for a smaller lot offering.

Sausalito and to a lesser extent Arcadia were the result of poor pricing and bad timing.  Sausalito is started at $1.2 M or so...for that price you can get into any PP community other than Melrose. 

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Was Shea Homes expecting that SG should be trading at higher premium compared to PP?  If you compare two homes Shea Homes built at both PP and SG, it seems like they were thinking that SG commanded higher premium and should have been priced at higher price point for a smaller lot offering. 

Or... the cost of land was higher at SG than at PP?

So in comparing shea, Sausalito is around $393 PSF (based on opening day pricing of a plan 2 of $1,445,900 for 3,670sf) and Sagewood is around $368 PSF (based on Phase 3 pricing of a plan 3 of $1,082,900 for 2,941sf).  FYI current Sagewood Plan 3 pricing is $400 PSF.  But there's the MR difference so you have to factor that in.  But let's just say the larger lot size negates the additional MR (for arguments sake), then ok, Shea (but really TIC) thought SG commands a higher premium than PP.  So you can look at it that way:  SG>PP based on high $/PSF or you can look at it the other way and say:  TIC thought SG>PP but Sausalito isn't selling so is SG really better?  And just like IHO pointed out, land cost plays a huge role here too as does the often-mentioned "TIC controlled pricing". 

BTW - Sagewood and Sausalito are really different products so it's not really apples to apples but I'm just using these 2 since you pointed it out.

But isn't some of that price point fixed because SG is supposed to be tiered?  So when the other community starting raising in price, the newer community have to start at a higher price point. 

 

[bones]

[.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Was Shea Homes expecting that SG should be trading at higher premium compared to PP?  If you compare two homes Shea Homes built at both PP and SG, it seems like they were thinking that SG commanded higher premium and should have been priced at higher price point for a smaller lot offering. 

Or... the cost of land was higher at SG than at PP?

Does that prove another point?  The MARKET dictates what the costs/value of the land should be.  Does that mean SG land is more valuable due to certain factors?

Maybe but see the orchard hills thread. Aquabliss posted something about outside builders thinking pricing for OH to be x and TIC said no - it's x plus y.  So is the release pricing really based on "market" or just what TIC thinks.

It's both.  But TIC treats Irvine as a "luxury" item so it tries to artificially keep the prices high.

 

[Goriot]

Was Shea Homes expecting that SG should be trading at higher premium compared to PP?  If you compare two homes Shea Homes built at both PP and SG, it seems like they were thinking that SG commanded higher premium and should have been priced at higher price point for a smaller lot offering. 

Or... the cost of land was higher at SG than at PP?

Does that prove another point?  The MARKET dictates what the costs/value of the land should be.  Does that mean SG land is more valuable due to certain factors?

Maybe but see the orchard hills thread. Aquabliss posted something about outside builders thinking pricing for OH to be x and TIC said no - it's x plus y.  So is the release pricing really based on "market" or just what TIC thinks.

In the end, its still the MARKET because the builders are still buying those lands at those higher prices.  If the builders' believe the higher price points TIC quoted (x plus y) does not add value, they will not purchase at that price.  Obviously, they believe that they can pass the Y to the FCBs/home buyers.  If FCBs/home buyers reject Y, then home builders wouldn't pay for that extra Y, which means TIC can't sell the land at that premium pricing.

 

[bones]

[..

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Was Shea Homes expecting that SG should be trading at higher premium compared to PP?  If you compare two homes Shea Homes built at both PP and SG, it seems like they were thinking that SG commanded higher premium and should have been priced at higher price point for a smaller lot offering. 

Or... the cost of land was higher at SG than at PP?

Does that prove another point?  The MARKET dictates what the costs/value of the land should be.  Does that mean SG land is more valuable due to certain factors?

Well... what I was saying is that The Irvine Company charges more for the land they own than Five Points does... whether that means it has more value is subjective.

But now that I looked at Sausalito's floorplans, this is really an apple/orange comparison.

Historically, TIC hoods tend to have higher prices than non-TIC master builder hoods... but that could be translated as a better value. While some say WI isn't really "Irvine", prices there (esp during the 2013 run-up) said otherwise (even with a Tustin school district).

It will be interesting once the rest of The Great Park gets built out (esp since it's almost 10,000 homes now instead of the original 5000) to see which is "better" and is really "Irvine".

 

[OpenSky]

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Was Shea Homes expecting that SG should be trading at higher premium compared to PP?  If you compare two homes Shea Homes built at both PP and SG, it seems like they were thinking that SG commanded higher premium and should have been priced at higher price point for a smaller lot offering. 

Or... the cost of land was higher at SG than at PP?

Does that prove another point?  The MARKET dictates what the costs/value of the land should be.  Does that mean SG land is more valuable due to certain factors?

Well... what I was saying is that The Irvine Company charges more for the land they own than Five Points does... whether that means it has more value is subjective.

But now that I looked at Sausalito's floorplans, this is really an apple/orange comparison.

Historically, TIC hoods tend to have higher prices than non-TIC master builder hoods... but that could be translated as a better value. While some say WI isn't really "Irvine", prices there (esp during the 2013 run-up) said otherwise (even with a Tustin school district).

It will be interesting once the rest of The Great Park gets built out (esp since it's almost 10,000 homes now instead of the original 5000) to see which is "better" and is really "Irvine".

WI homes trade closer to 92782 than 92602. Low-mid $300's per square foot all day long and twice on Sundays. Premiums are anomaly in WI, just like golf course homes in TR trade at a premium vs WI.

that's why I don't buy the halo effect argument on OH vs 92602. Buyers don't spill into other villages when the product is dissimilar.

Definitely agree...look at price difference between Northwood v. Northwood Pointe.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I believe West Irvine homes still traded higher than true non-"Irvine" cities... which was my point.

While there are larger disparities between hoods like the Turtles and College Park, I don't know if you will see that same type of variance between two locations separated by a road with homes built around the same time period.

I agree that the Halo Effect may be different in OH. There will be an over 10 year age difference between OH and Northpark, and even more between Northwood and OH, so proximity aside, there is more to affect a differentiation in values.

I find it interesting that no one debates the difference between Lambert Ranch and PP. Those two are right next to each other and LR is all SFRs and no MRs... isn't that the superior location?

 

[paperboyNC]

I believe West Irvine homes still traded higher than true non-"Irvine" cities... which was my point.

While there are larger disparities between hoods like the Turtles and College Park, I don't know if you will see that same type of variance between two locations separated by a road with homes built around the same time period.

I agree that the Halo Effect may be different in OH. There will be an over 10 year age difference between OH and Northpark, and even more between Northwood and OH, so proximity aside, there is more to affect a differentiation in values.

I find it interesting that no one debates the difference between Lambert Ranch and PP. Those two are right next to each other and LR is all SFRs and no MRs... isn't that the superior location?

There is nothing for sale in Lambert Ranch so it's a moot point.

 

[eyephone]

I believe West Irvine homes still traded higher than true non-"Irvine" cities... which was my point.

While there are larger disparities between hoods like the Turtles and College Park, I don't know if you will see that same type of variance between two locations separated by a road with homes built around the same time period.

I agree that the Halo Effect may be different in OH. There will be an over 10 year age difference between OH and Northpark, and even more between Northwood and OH, so proximity aside, there is more to affect a differentiation in values.

I find it interesting that no one debates the difference between Lambert Ranch and PP. Those two are right next to each other and LR is all SFRs and no MRs... isn't that the superior location?

Smart buyers bought in Lambert Ranch.

 

[OpenSky]

 

[qwerty]

Smart LUCKY buyers bought in Lambert Ranch.

FIXED

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Is Tustin Ranch really a *true* non-Irvine city? It's TIC... might as well have been called Irvine West.

The difference between Northpark and West Irvine is more age related.

 

[OpenSky]

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Is Tustin Ranch really a *true* non-Irvine city? It's TIC... might as well have been called Irvine West.

The difference between Northpark and West Irvine is more age related.

WI and NP are the same age, more or less.

Hmm... it is a couple of years but they are close. I guess it is the TIC Master Builder difference... and the guard gated aspect?

I think NWP is higher than NP in $/sf... is that the IUSD/TUSD premium? Is that the same difference we'll see between OH TUSD and OH IUSD?

So interesting these 'hood battles.

 

[OpenSky]

???

 

[thedude111222]

Let's just recap.  Here are the amazing things about SG.  I'm so swayed I almost want to get out of my PP P&S and buy an Arcadia house:

1. It has apartment buildings that can't be seen when taking certain roads. 
2. It has ugly curb appeal homes that can't be seen when you spend all your time indoors. 
3. Oh but when you do want to go outside, it has a MILLION pocket pocks which comes along with a side of IP's special concoction "the-no-yard-Stockholm-Syndrome"
3. Its "central park" is even better than WB because it's only a 5 minute walk whereas in WB, the park can be "very far" for a l.ot of people.
4. The landscaping is not as pretty as places like WB but who wants to pay a bigger HOA fee when it can be spent towards a TV
5. It is dense but who cares.  Dense = more people walking around.
6. It is filled with FCBs, but not to worry - they are THE friendliest of all FCBs.
7. It is considered "irvine" - unlike West Irvine, Northpark, Columbus Grove and most likely Pavilion Park.  What irvine in quotations mean? I'm still a bit fuzzy on but irvine in quotations MUST be better than irvine NOT in quotations.
7. Oh and of course - the kicker - IC lives there. 

SOLD!

Bones...you understand that I'm not trying to convince you (or anyone) that SG is better than PP.  I already said that I like PP layout better because it has more of a neighborhood feel and bigger lots.    I don't like PP for the lack of parks and its location.  I have also stated that it is impossible for me to compare until the communities are built out and the vegetation grows.  Woodbury looks very different now than compared to what it was like when it opened.

All I am saying is that the perceived issues with Stonegate does not really matter to me.  I don't care about the apartment complexes or that the front of the houses doesn't look as "nice" as PP.  I like the pocket parks in Stonegate as oppose to one central park like in Woodbury because I can get there pretty easily and fast with my daughter. 

I don't want a yard because it's more work and costs to landscape it.  I don't like how dense the houses are to each other.

As for FCBs, there are going to be a lot of FCBs in PP, OH, PS, SG, and WB.  As for the "Irvine" comment, all I am saying is that it remains to see what portions become more "desirable" than others.  PP could be more desirable than SG...I have no idea.

The reason I like Saratoga is the interior layout of the house.  I didn't really like most of the  layouts in PP.  I also like the price point that I got my house at.  A comparably priced house in PP had a larger yard and more curb appeal but has less square footage and not as good of a layout.   

During the weekdays, I spend most of my day outside of the house (7-7), I come home eat dinner play with my daughter a little bit, put my daughter to sleep, watch some TV/Netflix and go to sleep.  All done inside my house.

During the weekend, we usually go somewhere to have breakfast and spend most of the day running errands or doing things.  Some Sunday afternoons I take my daughter to the park for about an hour and then go home and get ready for the weekend. 

So, for me interior layout is the most important followed by a park close by.  I spend maybe a total of 5 minutes looking at the exterior of my house or the accompanying neighbor, most of it in my car. 

Again, your mileage may vary but SG works much better for me than PP.  Once PP builds out, it may be more desirable but right now, I felt that I made a good choice.

I think Commuter and I think a lot alike...SG has enough to offer that having a few apartment complexes mixed into the fold isn't going detract people from buying there nor will it hurt the resale value in the future....Woodbridge and Turtle Rock do just fine 30 years later and there are multiple apartment complexes in each along with a crap ton of condos...Woodbury too....

I would have an issue my house backed to or faced an apartment building or large condo builing...but it doesnt...and so far they've done a decent job laying out the neighborhoods and parks so that people don't really have to deal with that

 

[usctrojancpa]

Is Tustin Ranch really a *true* non-Irvine city? It's TIC... might as well have been called Irvine West.

The difference between Northpark and West Irvine is more age related.

WI and NP are the same age, more or less.

Hmm... it is a couple of years but they are close. I guess it is the TIC Master Builder difference... and the guard gated aspect?

I think NWP is higher than NP in $/sf... is that the IUSD/TUSD premium? Is that the same difference we'll see between OH TUSD and OH IUSD?

So interesting these 'hood battles.

Folks largely seem willing to look past NP's TUSD-ness as a trade for being in the community.

WI is simply not aging well. The homes on the north end are 11/10ths scale for the streets, it lacks lush landscape within some tracts (presumably because of the haphazard HOA-ness?), the primary park (Valencia) is jammed up against Jamboree -- forgoing a core, there's no real connecting 'theme' here, just an Irvine stamp with Aliso Viejo-style homes. In short, it's just not endearing. About the only common area aspect I like about WI is the integration of the trail on the southeast end, which horseshoes around into the park - across Jamboree via the tunnel. But even that is a missed opportunity, as the trail egresses to the sidewalk adjacent 261 instead of being fed by the main Hicks Canyon wash/Mountains to the Sea Trail. So riders and walkers go from blissful Class I to the hot mess that is Irvine Blvd.

That miss - that last quarter mile linkage in the path to the MTTST - sums up WI. As a gateway to Irvine from Tustin, it coulda been something great but ultimately misses the mark.

I want to like WI (honest) but can't bring myself to pull the trigger on a place there.

I love the fact that there's no HOA and no apartments in WI.  You can always buy my house which has a larger lot (over 5,000sf), has a pool/spa, built-in BBQ, and is fully remodeled.  Oh my Mello Roos is only $1,200/year and it goes down in 1/2 in the next few years.