Examples of significant savings?
- Thread starter irvinehomeowner
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Anyone knows that's not how you determine actual discounts in real estate cycles.
You have to compare sold prices of similar models last year to sold prices this year... not listing/wish price to sold. That is fact not propaganda,
I am not saying nothing happened, I am determining what the extent is and if it's outside the normal ebbs/flows of real estate cycles. So far, a 5-10% drop from last year seems to be within the margin of error and I have yet to see data that proves otherwise. And if prices start going back up (like some charts indicate), that leans toward "seasonality".
That's more like market conditions. which I agreed about.
Here, we are talking about price because the bottom line is you told people to wait to save money.
My contention when it comes to Irvine real estate, even with the worst market conditions, pricing is very stubborn and timing bargains to get maximum savings is very difficult.
People are anticipating the shit to hit the fan and have been playing defensively since last year. No one believe the tariffs will come to fruition and that both side US and China will work things out. And now the tariffs is in full affects. Because of the awareness and the heighten loud decibels level of worst things would happen when the two won?t resolves, it actually soften the blow. Looks at the market and housing, it looking better.
Unless, war breakout with foreign country, I mean military actions. Then all bets are off.
Yes, we know about all these things but as I've explained to kenkoko, it will take more than just limiting the buying power of Chinese FCBs to make a big mark in Irvine real estate, where they exit, others will enter... just like Cali companies (shout out to morekaos).
And the Fed will push where the RE industry can't, just like 10 years ago, the Fed knows the how important home prices are and will do things to prevent a free fall.
Here are facts from Redfin:
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market
From Trulia:
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/
From Zillow:
https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/
But who knows, maybe that's just a blip and prices are going back down... but that's not usually the case as we move into the summer.
I think as long as housing continue to stabilize, from flat to 1-3 % yoy, then we will hear crickets.
For rental properties, this has no effects. As a matter of facts, it actually boost the ease of rental deductions in my case.
But there?s less people who own rentals vs people who own homes as a primary residence.
Repeal and Replace the SALT deduction limitation. In my opinion the RE industry should take point on this. (be the lead) Which will drive more sales across the board.
Bring back the American Dream to own a home with the benefit of the tax deductions of course.
Agree, repeal the tax cap is prefer, but this is the new normal, until then. The price pop after the repeal = to the tax cap tax. Either way, it going to get more expensive. I don?t like it, as i?ve seen this happen before.
Wasn?t last summer slow?
Maybe volume-wise but prices still peaked in July 2018. Remember, that's when Delano was going bonkers (is it still selling that high?).
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
Anyone knows that's not how you determine actual discounts in real estate cycles.
You have to compare sold prices of similar models last year to sold prices this year... not listing/wish price to sold. That is fact not propaganda,
I am not saying nothing happened, I am determining what the extent is and if it's outside the normal ebbs/flows of real estate cycles. So far, a 5-10% drop from last year seems to be within the margin of error and I have yet to see data that proves otherwise. And if prices start going back up (like some charts indicate), that leans toward "seasonality".
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
That's more like market conditions. which I agreed about.
Here, we are talking about price because the bottom line is you told people to wait to save money.
My contention when it comes to Irvine real estate, even with the worst market conditions, pricing is very stubborn and timing bargains to get maximum savings is very difficult.
Also, you have to consider the Tariff Crisis with China or China economy slowdown. The buyers are not lining up to buy like before.
Also, the salt deduction. People were like buying homes for a big time or small time tax deduction. Some people might say like a legal tax shelter. (But not any more yo!)
Maybe the RE industry should of pushed back like big league. When they were discussing/debating Trump?s tax reform.
Also, the salt deduction. People were like buying homes for a big time or small time tax deduction. Some people might say like a legal tax shelter. (But not any more yo!)
Maybe the RE industry should of pushed back like big league. When they were discussing/debating Trump?s tax reform.
zubs
Well-known member
Everything about this economy looks bad and we are about to slide into some shit.
So people are holding their stock investment money in crappy 2.1% savings accounts and state government bonds waiting for the crash.
How will the FED kick these savings account people back into the stock market? By lowering interest rates.
So people are holding their stock investment money in crappy 2.1% savings accounts and state government bonds waiting for the crash.
How will the FED kick these savings account people back into the stock market? By lowering interest rates.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
zubs said:
People are anticipating the shit to hit the fan and have been playing defensively since last year. No one believe the tariffs will come to fruition and that both side US and China will work things out. And now the tariffs is in full affects. Because of the awareness and the heighten loud decibels level of worst things would happen when the two won?t resolves, it actually soften the blow. Looks at the market and housing, it looking better.
Unless, war breakout with foreign country, I mean military actions. Then all bets are off.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
Yes, we know about all these things but as I've explained to kenkoko, it will take more than just limiting the buying power of Chinese FCBs to make a big mark in Irvine real estate, where they exit, others will enter... just like Cali companies (shout out to morekaos).
And the Fed will push where the RE industry can't, just like 10 years ago, the Fed knows the how important home prices are and will do things to prevent a free fall.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
Here are facts from Redfin:
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market
From Trulia:
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/
From Zillow:
https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/
But who knows, maybe that's just a blip and prices are going back down... but that's not usually the case as we move into the summer.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Did my ?propaganda? silence the slowdowners?
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
I think as long as housing continue to stabilize, from flat to 1-3 % yoy, then we will hear crickets.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
eyephone said:
For rental properties, this has no effects. As a matter of facts, it actually boost the ease of rental deductions in my case.
Compressed-Village said:
But there?s less people who own rentals vs people who own homes as a primary residence.
Repeal and Replace the SALT deduction limitation. In my opinion the RE industry should take point on this. (be the lead) Which will drive more sales across the board.
Bring back the American Dream to own a home with the benefit of the tax deductions of course.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
eyephone said:
Agree, repeal the tax cap is prefer, but this is the new normal, until then. The price pop after the repeal = to the tax cap tax. Either way, it going to get more expensive. I don?t like it, as i?ve seen this happen before.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
But even with SALT, the price drop in Irvine for this current cycle is within the same percentages as previous years. Volume may be different, but the bottom line is how much anyone saved this year is comparable to previous years (or am I reading the data wrong?).
Now maybe we are headed for another dip this fall/winter that might be lower than the one in Feb 19, but that's still following the seasonal pattern I was talking about.
Maybe the November results gave people more hope that housing would stabilize? Also, different from the last significant slowdown is there are more new home developments than in 08-09. If anyone remembers, that's when Orchard Hills did not open and I believe the only new homes being sold were Woodbury, Portola Springs (both closing out their hoods) and Columbus Grove/Square. Does the listing volume also track new homes available that are not on the MLS?
While there may be examples of significant savings, I think those are the outliers and not the norm... at least that's what the data says, personal experience may vary.
Now maybe we are headed for another dip this fall/winter that might be lower than the one in Feb 19, but that's still following the seasonal pattern I was talking about.
Maybe the November results gave people more hope that housing would stabilize? Also, different from the last significant slowdown is there are more new home developments than in 08-09. If anyone remembers, that's when Orchard Hills did not open and I believe the only new homes being sold were Woodbury, Portola Springs (both closing out their hoods) and Columbus Grove/Square. Does the listing volume also track new homes available that are not on the MLS?
While there may be examples of significant savings, I think those are the outliers and not the norm... at least that's what the data says, personal experience may vary.
irvinehomeowner said:But even with SALT, the price drop in Irvine for this current cycle is within the same percentages as previous years. Volume may be different, but the bottom line is how much anyone saved this year is comparable to previous years (or am I reading the data wrong?).
Now maybe we are headed for another dip this fall/winter that might be lower than the one in Feb 19, but that's still following the seasonal pattern I was talking about.
Maybe the November results gave people more hope that housing would stabilize? Also, different from the last significant slowdown is there are more new home developments than in 08-09. If anyone remembers, that's when Orchard Hills did not open and I believe the only new homes being sold were Woodbury, Portola Springs (both closing out their hoods) and Columbus Grove/Square. Does the listing volume also track new homes available that are not on the MLS?
While there may be examples of significant savings, I think those are the outliers and not the norm... at least that's what the data says, personal experience may vary.
Wasn?t last summer slow?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:irvinehomeowner said:But even with SALT, the price drop in Irvine for this current cycle is within the same percentages as previous years. Volume may be different, but the bottom line is how much anyone saved this year is comparable to previous years (or am I reading the data wrong?).
Now maybe we are headed for another dip this fall/winter that might be lower than the one in Feb 19, but that's still following the seasonal pattern I was talking about.
Maybe the November results gave people more hope that housing would stabilize? Also, different from the last significant slowdown is there are more new home developments than in 08-09. If anyone remembers, that's when Orchard Hills did not open and I believe the only new homes being sold were Woodbury, Portola Springs (both closing out their hoods) and Columbus Grove/Square. Does the listing volume also track new homes available that are not on the MLS?
While there may be examples of significant savings, I think those are the outliers and not the norm... at least that's what the data says, personal experience may vary.
Wasn?t last summer slow?
Maybe volume-wise but prices still peaked in July 2018. Remember, that's when Delano was going bonkers (is it still selling that high?).
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
The best time in the last 2 years to "wait" would have been Mar/Apr 2017 when median price was $884k and then buying in Mar/Apr 2018 a year later when the median was $820k... a 7.2% savings.
Savings peak to trough for this year was 4.8%.
Savings peak to trough for this year was 4.8%.