irvinehomeowner said:
But to me, at least in my experience, most real estate in Irvine appreciates over the long haul. I've said before that I've stretched with each home we bought, and each time, it's worked out, so maybe that's a gamble for most, and at today's prices, I'm not sure I would do the same thing. However, if you can afford it, and it's the home you want, small price discounts for 5-10% (the typical drop the last 4 years)... or even 15%, become less of a consideration.
Maybe I'm not as down on the economy as you are. Maybe because you think AI might have a hand in killing tons of jobs but to me I see that as an evolution to create more opportunities and a better life for everyone.
I often debate with you on this because your premise is very different from the overall trend. Of course, we can continue to buck the trend and discuss not selling at all or staying 10 years (doubling the average), but that doesn?t achieve much else other than your specific situation.
I understand why you would come to your conclusion regarding Irvine home prices, but I disagree with you.
8% drop in a few months is significant to me. Which is why I urge people who are still not fully committed in Irvine RE to exercise caution. My family?s business is in international trading. I feel confident that we have a good pulse on the global economy and it is not doing great. All it took for the recent slowdown in Irvine home price was some marginal reduction of FCB buying and slight mortgage rate increase. What would happen if US economy actually slows down? It's not unthinkable. We are already 10 years into this recovery / expansion and there are already signs showing a slowdown looming. What happens when China and world economy slows down with it?
I have argued before that it?s FCBs that?s propping up Irvine home prices to 2018 levels. What will happen when FCB buying slows to a trickle? Or worse when some FCBs mass exit and sell off in a relative short time span? To me it?s always better to plan for the worst and hope for the best. I am against pushing DTI to max or near max levels to buy homes that have never ending Mello Roos.
I cringe when I hear people say that the great recession of 2008 is once in a life time scenario. Either they don?t expect to live very long which is a bit sad (life expectancy in USA did drop 3 years in a roll) Or they have no idea how profound and widespread the impact of the incoming disruptions we will see from massive adaptation of AI and automation.
I was just at the car dealership over the weekend. The sales rep was showing my 2.5-year-old daughter how to operate the buttons and the steering wheel when it struck me that she will probably never drive a car (or need to)
We are about to decimate 25% - 40% of jobs in the USA by 2030 and most people have given it close to zero consideration on how that will impact our economy. I get that we are protected by many layers of bubbles. We do live in the greatest country on earth and California / Orange county / Irvine are bubbles to the extreme. But this problem will be too big to not have significant economic impact on Irvine.
To your point, yes, I agree we will eventually evolve and find a way. I am not fear mongering that we will see destruction of our country or humanity, but the process will be extremely disruptive and brutal.
