Economic Slowdown?

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eyephone said:
Irvinecommuter said:
morekaos said:
He is more than qualified by education, resume and real economic experience.

Cain grew up in Georgia and graduated from Morehouse College in 1967 with a Bachelor of Science in Mathematics. Cain pursued graduate studies at Purdue University and graduated with a Master of Science in Computer Science in 1971,while also working full-time for the U.S. Department of the Navy.

Cain was chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Omaha Branch from 1989 to 1991. He was deputy chairman, from 1992 to 1994, and chairman, from 1995 to 1996, of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. In 1995, Cain was appointed by Newt Gingrich to the Kemp Commission,and was a senior economic adviser to the Bob Dole presidential campaign.

CEO of the National Restaurant Association,in which he served as president and CEO from 1996 to 1999.
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I know his background and he definitely has a great resume for a business person but his macro economic views are ridiculous...like gold standard and somehow growth does not lead to inflation.  His 9-9-9 plan was also terrible.

Of course, the other choice seems to be Stephen Moore, who is even worse.
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The pizza man I mean pizza executive?  ;)
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Pizza party at the White House. ;)
 
I dunno...

Strong jobs number dashes recession fears and shows Fed it does not need to move on rates

Recession fears continue to fade after March's stronger-than-expected jobs report showed strong growth in hiring across a broad range of industries.
The 196,000 jobs created in March went a long ways to counter balance the low 33,000 jobs added in February, and when combined with strong January jobs, the three-month average was 180,000.

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/08/jobs-report-recession-fears-fade-but-blowout-number-not-enough-to-move-fed.html
 
Sigh - trying to get an actual point through all these wall to wall memes is an uphill climb ...

Today?s employment numbers ? Wage growth fell to 3.2 percent yoy ? so slightly better than inflation

What was profit growth / EPS for corporations last year ? More than 20 percent  !!  Of this number nearly 9 percent came from tax cuts .

So the tax cut was a loot for corporations as I have been pointing out all of last year

What?s happening now ?  Profit growth this first quarter is expected to be negative and second quarter is not going to be much better either .

But you are still going to have labor cost pressures and wage growth as we now enter the later stages of the economic cycle .  That combined with all the liberal push towards increasing minimum wages that is already happening city by city and state by state , even if there is no federal increase because of GOP and heritage institute?s stupid dogma.

This is why I mentioned the pendulum is swinging towards labor now , even if marginally so

There. Lesson finished . Now we go back to memes and chest thumping purple font .
 
And while we are on the topic of Federal reserve

Remember all the tea party and conservative hacks were opposed to Fed doing anything to support the economy when Obama was in charge

Remember your typical republican leaning financial advisors all warning about inflation because of ?reckless? Fed

How easily have they all changed their tune now on rate cuts and today trump is even calling for quantitative easing

Not very dissimilar from how sexual depravity and lack of morals stopped being issues for evangelicals the instant we discovered those ?qualities? in Trump

Remember all this as you hear complete hacks like Moore get considered for the most important financial institution in the entire world
 
fortune11 said:
And while we are on the topic of Federal reserve

Remember all the tea party and conservative hacks were opposed to Fed doing anything to support the economy when Obama was in charge

Remember your typical republican leaning financial advisors all warning about inflation because of ?reckless? Fed

How easily have they all changed their tune now on rate cuts and today trump is even calling for quantitative easing

Not very dissimilar from how sexual depravity and lack of morals stopped being issues for evangelicals the instant we discovered those ?qualities? in Trump

Remember all this as you hear complete hacks like Moore get considered for the most important financial institution in the entire world
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Let?s discuss it over pizza  ;) jk
 
It's not all great news. You can see it in the market's tepid reaction.

The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade. Labor force participation rate slightly declined.
 
Kenkoko said:
It's not all great news. You can see it in the market's tepid reaction.

The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade. Labor force participation rate slightly declined.
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More layoffs to come..
 
Yes - this is why I sold my stocks (at least index funds ) at 2750 area and am happily sitting in fixed income and munis now  . I am ok missing a few percentage points upside here until I am convinced that the earnings recession is behind us .

But my original point stands ? after the corporate boondoggle and loot of these past couple decades you are about to see a shift in labor share of income RELATIVE to corporate profits .
 
eyephone said:
fortune11 said:
And while we are on the topic of Federal reserve

Remember all the tea party and conservative hacks were opposed to Fed doing anything to support the economy when Obama was in charge

Remember your typical republican leaning financial advisors all warning about inflation because of ?reckless? Fed

How easily have they all changed their tune now on rate cuts and today trump is even calling for quantitative easing

Not very dissimilar from how sexual depravity and lack of morals stopped being issues for evangelicals the instant we discovered those ?qualities? in Trump

Remember all this as you hear complete hacks like Moore get considered for the most important financial institution in the entire world
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Let?s discuss it over pizza  ;) jk
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Does not work w a keto diet :)
 
fortune11 said:
Yes - this is why I sold my stocks (at least index funds ) at 2750 area and am happily sitting in fixed income and munis now  . I am ok missing a few percentage points upside here until I am convinced that the earnings recession is behind us .

But my original point stands ? after the corporate boondoggle and loot of these past couple decades you are about to see a shift in labor share of income RELATIVE to corporate profits .
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We go back to the problem with AI/automation. 

Biggest contributor of lower wages is the globalization of the job market.  People elsewhere willing to do the job for less and in poorer conditions. 

AI/robots work for next to nothing and don't care about condition.
 
Irvinecommuter said:
fortune11 said:
Yes - this is why I sold my stocks (at least index funds ) at 2750 area and am happily sitting in fixed income and munis now  . I am ok missing a few percentage points upside here until I am convinced that the earnings recession is behind us .

But my original point stands ? after the corporate boondoggle and loot of these past couple decades you are about to see a shift in labor share of income RELATIVE to corporate profits .
Click to expand...

We go back to the problem with AI/automation. 

Biggest contributor of lower wages is the globalization of the job market.  People elsewhere willing to do the job for less and in poorer conditions. 

AI/robots work for next to nothing and don't care about condition.
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Fastest adoption of robots is happening in Asia actually where wages are even lower than developed world

I think there will be structural constraints to higher profits , automation notwithstanding.

I can argue there was greater technological progress in the 60s to 90s but wages were rising.  Because we had women entering the labor force and productivity rising.  The point is , this relationship is non linear .
 
Here is another pro tip ?

Your republican financial advisors that told you that the trump tax cuts were a game changer and ? wants you to stay invested in stocks and continue paying them commissions

How long will it take them to flip as we approach 2020 and if stocks tank ?- to blame it all on AOC and markets? ? fear ? of  the ?socialist ? Democrats and wash their hands off everything ? 

Keep this in mind as you evaluate these scamster  talking heads and financial newsletters, etc.
 
Sometimes a picture is really worth a thousand words.

The income inequality path we are on will definitely destabilize our economy.

That plus the automation disruptions, this is going to be an epic shit storm.
 

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fortune11 said:
Here is another pro tip ?

Your republican financial advisors that told you that the trump tax cuts were a game changer and ? wants you to stay invested in stocks and continue paying them commissions

How long will it take them to flip as we approach 2020 and if stocks tank ?- to blame it all on AOC and markets? ? fear ? of  the ?socialist ? Democrats and wash their hands off everything ? 

Keep this in mind as you evaluate these scamster  talking heads and financial newsletters, etc.
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Whaaaa? First quarter earning collapse and the shrinking GDP are finally here....

Wall Street is expecting negative earnings growth for the first quarter of 2019

A major earnings slowdown is happening right now.

S&P 500 (^GSPC) companies are expected to report a 0.8% drop in year-over-year earnings for the first quarter of 2019, according to fresh data from FactSet.

In late January, analysts were expecting 0.7% earnings growth for the first quarter.

First quarter earnings reports won?t start rolling in until April. The current slate of earnings are for the fourth quarter of 2018, and are expected to rise 12.4% year-over-year. The fourth quarter of 2018 is the last quarter without the corporate tax cuts skewing the year-over-year comparables for earnings.

The tax cuts are the main culprit behind the looming earnings slowdown. During the first quarter of 2018, earnings grew 25% year over year.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-is-expecting-negative-earnings-growth-for-the-first-quarter-of-2019-171448570.html

Atlanta Fed?s closely watched GDP tracker shows next to no growth for first quarter

The closely watched Atlanta Fed?s initial estimate for first quarter growth is just 0.3 percent.
The forecast shows an economy that has stalled after the fourth quarter?s 2.6 percent gain.
Economists have been expecting first-quarter growth below 2 percent.
Goldman Sachs economists see 0.9 percent for the first quarter and a bounce to 2.9 percent in the second quarter.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/atlanta-feds-closely-watched-gdp-tracker-shows-next-to-no-growth-for-first-quarter.html
 
Flawless...

Here?s what Wall Street got wrong this earnings season, according to CFRA Research

After bracing for the worst, Wall Street got a welcome surprise this earnings season.

Instead of the beginnings of an earnings recession, corporate profits are now expected to come in flat to slightly higher for the first three months of the year.

Lindsey Bell, investment strategist at CFRA Research, explains how the Street got it so wrong.

?Going into this reporting period, earnings estimates were cut from 5% positive growth on January 1 to negative 3% going into the earnings period. That?s the sharpest cut that we?ve seen since the first quarter of 2009, which obviously was a very different economic environment than what we?re in now,?  Bell said Thursday on CNBC?s ?Trading Nation. ?

More than a third of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings so far. Of those, 78% have beaten earnings estimates, while 56% have surpassed sales expectations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/26/heres-what-wall-street-got-wrong-this-earnings-season.html

US economy grows by 3.2% in the first quarter, topping expectations

?The upside beat was helped by net trade (exports jumped while imports contracted sharply) and inventories which combined contributed almost 170 bps of the rise,? wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. ?Personal spending though, the biggest component was up just 1.2%, two tenths more than expected as an increase in spending on services and nondurable goods offset a decline in spending on durable goods.?

Exports rose 3.7% in the first quarter, while imports decreased by 3.7%. Economic growth also got a lift from strong investments in intellectual property products. Those investments expanded by 8.6%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/26/gdp-q1-2019-first-read.html
https://youtu.be/64W2saiE2Gw

https://youtu.be/64W2saiE2Gw
 
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