Dow?

[irvinebullhousing]

Let?s see ho far will the FED goes? Bailout States and Local municipalities next? Then pensions funds. CALPers pensions funds is over a trillions dollars? Oh, that?s chumps change. The cash register and printing press will run out of inks soon.

The U.S. bubble economy rests on the foundation of the myth that inflation is too low. Once CPI increases far exceed the Fed 2% target, the party is over. Without the pretense of low inflation, the Fed will have to choose between crashing the economy or destroying the dollar.

The dollars is still the world currency, so FED will choose crash the fake boom.

 

[momopi]

My crystal ball predicts a dip in 3-4 weeks down to 20k-22k range.

Just curious what you would base it on? Lower spending/hiring than expected as states reopen?

Pessimistic Q2 outlook, and blind faith that we will hit every tree branch.  I think the current bull rally is based on wishful thinking and not actual performance.

I am however keeping a small % stake in oil related funds and ETF's purchased this month.

 

[usctrojancpa]

My crystal ball predicts a dip in 3-4 weeks down to 20k-22k range.

Just curious what you would base it on? Lower spending/hiring than expected as states reopen?

Pessimistic Q2 outlook, and blind faith that we will hit every tree branch.  I think the current bull rally is based on wishful thinking and not actual performance.

I am however keeping a small % stake in oil related funds and ETF's purchased this month.

April has historically been one of the better months for performance while May has been the opposite.  We'll probably hit 3,000-3,100 on S&P before we dip.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Nasdaq back up to Jan levels... that figures as it's more tech heavy.

Dow and S&P at around the middle of their drops... will they keep rising or does it all depend on "The Re-Opening"?

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Nasdaq back up to Jan levels... that figures as it's more tech heavy.

Dow and S&P at around the middle of their drops... will they keep rising or does it all depend on "The Re-Opening"?

What do you think?

 

[zubs]

What will the FED do next if the DOW crashes back to 20,000?...what is left to do?
Perhaps then Trump will do another 4 bill in stimulus and give the states money?

So the states only hope for getting a fed bailout is if wall street crashes...

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Nasdaq back up to Jan levels... that figures as it's more tech heavy.

Dow and S&P at around the middle of their drops... will they keep rising or does it all depend on "The Re-Opening"?

What do you think?

I'm optimistic. I'm looking at a 3-month to year recovery.

Every time there is some type of crisis... people find a way to get back to how it was. I think this one is harder because we are fighting science/nature... not terrorists or corrupt bankers... but I am hopeful we will find a way.

 

[usctrojancpa]

What will the FED do next if the DOW crashes back to 20,000?...what is left to do?
Perhaps then Trump will do another 4 bill in stimulus and give the states money?

So the states only hope for getting a fed bailout is if wall street crashes...

Buy stock ETFs like DIA, QQQ, and SPY.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

What will the FED do next if the DOW crashes back to 20,000?...what is left to do?
Perhaps then Trump will do another 4 bill in stimulus and give the states money?

So the states only hope for getting a fed bailout is if wall street crashes...

I think the next crash will exceed your expectation, it will drive to the low, exceed the March 2020 bottom. It always does.

 

[momopi]

The Fed is trying to reset us back to Feb 2020.  By turning M2 chart into a Pogo stick they think Dow will be restored to 30K in 2 years and up to 40K in 3 years.  If I had enough blind faith in a quick recovery, I would um...  place limit orders on CCL $10-$8.

For the next dip (ETA late May to early June?) I think we will see 10%-15% drop.  This means if Dow is at 25,000, it will drop to 22,500 - 21,250 ish.  If dropping from 24,000, 21,600 - 20,400 ish.  I don't expect it to dip down to 18K or below.  But if it happens many people will probably jump on leveraged ETF's.

On that note, when I read about leveraged ETF's it just seems like a lot of hookie witchcraft with futures, options, swaps, and daily re-balancing.  Does anyone actually trust holding SSO for months and years?

 

[qwerty]

I?ve held SSO in retirment fund, no issues. Tracks the market as stated

 

[aquabliss]

Nice bounce today.  Dow and S&P must have hired ServPro... "Like it never happened"

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Nothing happen, when you have 8,000,000,000,000....Oh wow lots of zero added to the system.

The problem is all these helicopter money pumping and wall streets hoarding have only 1 place to go: 1) wall street / Corps shoring up their red balance sheets. 2) House  holds either sitting on their life preserver of that helicopter money or pay minimum debts. The velocity of that money did not circulate to have growth. When will they learn that free money will not fixes problems, otherwise, our governments for years trying to get people of welfares / CAL Fresh systems.


All of this resulted in devaluing the dollars further, evidence in food prices going higher already. And the smoke screens is because of CV-19 and plants shutdown. When the staffs full back at meat processing plants, prices will not drop.

 

[aquabliss]

Futures have S&P at 2,980ish... sheesh if we close over 3k this week...

 

[usctrojancpa]

Futures have S&P at 2,980ish... sheesh if we close over 3k this week...

We'll be over 3,000 this week.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

If Hong Kong heat up again with China new threat and U.S. decided now is the time to go all in then will have a different outcome.

 

[eyephone]

If Hong Kong heat up again with China new threat and U.S. decided now is the time to go all in then will have a different outcome.

Get ready for Hot spicy war? (Opposite of Cold War)

 

[irvinebullhousing]

If Hong Kong heat up again with China new threat and U.S. decided now is the time to go all in then will have a different outcome.

Get ready for Hot spicy war? (Opposite of Cold War)

Trade War / Words War / Tarrifs War / Cold War --------> Hot spicy war..Yes, it is unconfortably close. I hope it won't happen.

 

[momopi]

The military industrial complex requires a lengthy Cold War style military build up to be profitable and for those involved to retire in comfort. If a quick and decisive war ends the result will be cut backs to military spending and procurement.

 

[daedalus]

The last cold war bankrupted one of the combatants.  The next one might as well.  I hope we pick our battles carefully and never forget that we are playing with gasoline near a camp fire.