irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Kenkoko said:
Cultural issues impact economy and decision making.
Demographics, politics, scale etc changes the landscape.
Dow?
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Cultural issues impact economy and decision making.
Demographics, politics, scale etc changes the landscape.
Sure, I don't think any reasonable and logical person would dispute that. Which is also why I pointed out that there's a strong case to be made we are heading where Japan is under Trump. The rise in nationalism, economic nationalism, and anti immigration.
I am not saying other factors won't matter. I am just saying monetary and fiscal policies will have the bigger impact when you're talking about future economic outlook. This is somewhat parallel to Trump calling video games being the problem to gun violence. Sure, it is a factor but it's definitely lower on the list of things that matters, like access to guns. It's changing the focal point.
Conventional economic wisdom have the safe threshold for national debt to GDP at about 110%. We were at/slightly over that prior to this crisis.
We will be blowing past that threshold with the waves of Trump's stimulus.
When I say that we'll become Japan 2.0 I mean that we'll have perpetually low interest rates and low economic growth just like Japan has been dealing with for almost two decades.
This I agree with. We are still the global reserve currency so we can make meaningful moves without crashing. I am not a fiscally conservative deficit hawk but I am not a believer of Bernie style MMT either.
So it goes back to my original point - Japan is showing us what zero (& negative interest rate) + massive national debt looks like.
We will have low interest rate + low growth. Perhaps not to Japan's level because for over a decade Japan had negative growth.
For people who believe in robust growth going forward, what's driving the case for robust growth? Infinite stimulus?
Dow was 20188, Like taking candy from a baby? You know the OTC market is now flat for the year?
Like housing.
Yeah, but summer is seasonal
Totally agree.
I just don?t see the economy bounce right back to the level before the pandemic in very short amount of time. And it will take a few bad earning reports in the coming months to bring the market down to those level.
The market are cheering for potential coronavirus treatment and near the end of lockdown right now but ignore the magnitude of the damage to the economy and the aftermath.
Cultural issues impact economy and decision making.
Demographics, politics, scale etc changes the landscape.
irvinehomeowner said:
Sure, I don't think any reasonable and logical person would dispute that. Which is also why I pointed out that there's a strong case to be made we are heading where Japan is under Trump. The rise in nationalism, economic nationalism, and anti immigration.
I am not saying other factors won't matter. I am just saying monetary and fiscal policies will have the bigger impact when you're talking about future economic outlook. This is somewhat parallel to Trump calling video games being the problem to gun violence. Sure, it is a factor but it's definitely lower on the list of things that matters, like access to guns. It's changing the focal point.
Conventional economic wisdom have the safe threshold for national debt to GDP at about 110%. We were at/slightly over that prior to this crisis.
We will be blowing past that threshold with the waves of Trump's stimulus.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
I'm trying to understand this line of reasoning.
On one side, we should be like other countries because they do certain things better but our "freedom" will prevent us from ever doing things that way (like heavy handed lockdown for a pandemic).
But on the other side, economically we are going to end up like other countries despite having these freedoms and very different cultures/politics/demographics/econimies.
It can't be both ways.
I'll say this right now, we will not be Japan 2.0 (sorry USC ).
On one side, we should be like other countries because they do certain things better but our "freedom" will prevent us from ever doing things that way (like heavy handed lockdown for a pandemic).
But on the other side, economically we are going to end up like other countries despite having these freedoms and very different cultures/politics/demographics/econimies.
It can't be both ways.
I'll say this right now, we will not be Japan 2.0 (sorry USC
).You are making it into a bigger issue than it needs to be.
It's a fiscal and monetary issue. Trump's stimulus will put us way past what's traditionally considered safe national debt to GDP ratio.
How do we come back from this? austerity ? Or do we all of a sudden buy into Bernie Sander's MMT theory??
If you look at first world countries, only Japan, Greece, Italy, and USA are over 110%. That's not exactly the list you want to be on.
It's a fiscal and monetary issue. Trump's stimulus will put us way past what's traditionally considered safe national debt to GDP ratio.
How do we come back from this? austerity ? Or do we all of a sudden buy into Bernie Sander's MMT theory??
If you look at first world countries, only Japan, Greece, Italy, and USA are over 110%. That's not exactly the list you want to be on.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:I'm trying to understand this line of reasoning.
On one side, we should be like other countries because they do certain things better but our "freedom" will prevent us from ever doing things that way (like heavy handed lockdown for a pandemic).
But on the other side, economically we are going to end up like other countries despite having these freedoms and very different cultures/politics/demographics/econimies.
It can't be both ways.
I'll say this right now, we will not be Japan 2.0 (sorry USC
When I say that we'll become Japan 2.0 I mean that we'll have perpetually low interest rates and low economic growth just like Japan has been dealing with for almost two decades.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
For low interest rates, I can see what you are saying... but not slow economic growth.
I think you made this comparison over 10 years ago, but hasn't the economy thrived in that time?
I think you made this comparison over 10 years ago, but hasn't the economy thrived in that time?
Kings said:
This I agree with. We are still the global reserve currency so we can make meaningful moves without crashing. I am not a fiscally conservative deficit hawk but I am not a believer of Bernie style MMT either.
So it goes back to my original point - Japan is showing us what zero (& negative interest rate) + massive national debt looks like.
We will have low interest rate + low growth. Perhaps not to Japan's level because for over a decade Japan had negative growth.
For people who believe in robust growth going forward, what's driving the case for robust growth? Infinite stimulus?
zubs
Well-known member
At one point around 2010, 2011, we were talking on this forum about money becoming worthless because of all the printing.
Well what do you think is going on now?
So why isn't Panda talking about getting a HELOC and buying gold like he did 10 year ago?
Is that the right move? Will gold go to $2500 from all this printing around the world?
Well what do you think is going on now?
So why isn't Panda talking about getting a HELOC and buying gold like he did 10 year ago?
Is that the right move? Will gold go to $2500 from all this printing around the world?
morekaos
Well-known member
qwerty said:Kings said:lots of volatility these next few weeks. time to make some money >
Still about 85% cash in brokerage but getting gun shy now as the overreaction is considerably worse than I thought. I?m just assuming our 401ks are going to lose 50%.
I still think the comeback will be swift in the second half of the year if things resume back to normal in 2-3 weeks. I need to remind myself that things will get better over the longer term but getting a little bit harder every day.
Although the psychological impact of this may be longer lasting than I first anticipated so that bounce may not be as swift after all. Who knows.
Morekaos seems to have nerves of steel so maybe I?ll give him my money and let him manage it.
Dow was 20188, Like taking candy from a baby? You know the OTC market is now flat for the year?
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Nice ride. Sell in May go away has held true in the past. This will be more than ever. I think you are right, it might stretch a little longer then will doosy out.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
zubs said:
Like housing.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:zubs said:
Like housing.
Yeah, but summer is seasonal
momopi said:
Totally agree.
I just don?t see the economy bounce right back to the level before the pandemic in very short amount of time. And it will take a few bad earning reports in the coming months to bring the market down to those level.
The market are cheering for potential coronavirus treatment and near the end of lockdown right now but ignore the magnitude of the damage to the economy and the aftermath.
