Does anyone have the latest Foreclosure map in Quail Hill?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1234427613][quote author="almon" date=1234355055][quote author="earthbm" date=1234308688]How can anyone, including you, be sure of anything selling at a given price "tomorrow"? If I were the bank, the only thing I would be reasonably confident in would be that if I auction it today the odds of covering my $700k first lien are higher than if I wait. Judging by the cars parked there there is quite a bit of second lien debt on it, so the owners are under water, first lien creditor is protecting himself, and the second lien lender is screwed.</blockquote>


that's easy to answer -> i'm one confident sob!



real reason is i live 2 streets away, and know how much homes have gone for over the last 18 months in the sienna/chantilly/tapestry/olivos tracts. i don't know much about other tracks in quail hill, let alone other parts of irvine...but i monitor things when my wallet may get hit...</blockquote>
So how low do you think Sienna/Chantilly/Tapestry homes will go? (I'm not a fan of the Olivos floorplans)</blockquote>


hiya irvine_home_owner...let's do this for fun only and peer into my crystal ball (btw, i'm also not a fan of olivos, the 1st floor is too small for a pricey home)...



sienna plan 2 (which my wife and i love) 1.2m (20% off today) in a bank reo, 1.3m in non-reo

tapestry plan 3 (which i know really well) 0.9m (18% off today) in a reo, 0.95m in non-reo

chantilly plan 2...i'll take a pass here...i never understood why anyone would build a 3-bedroom 3000 sq ft home. weren't the architects supposed to say, "this doesn't make sense, boss?!?"



for some strange reason, there hasn't been enough sellers in quail hill to drive down prices for the tapestry/chantilly/sienna tracts...olivos is another story...
 
[quote author="frank69m" date=1234385108][quote author="almon" date=1234355055][quote author="earthbm" date=1234308688]How can anyone, including you, be sure of anything selling at a given price "tomorrow"? If I were the bank, the only thing I would be reasonably confident in would be that if I auction it today the odds of covering my $700k first lien are higher than if I wait. Judging by the cars parked there there is quite a bit of second lien debt on it, so the owners are under water, first lien creditor is protecting himself, and the second lien lender is screwed.</blockquote>


that's easy to answer -> i'm one confident sob!



real reason is i live 2 streets away, and know how much homes have gone for over the last 18 months in the sienna/chantilly/tapestry/olivos tracts. i don't know much about other tracks in quail hill, let alone other parts of irvine...but i monitor things when my wallet may get hit...</blockquote>




Do you know of any sellers up in Quail Hill. I'm looking at buying up there.</blockquote>


what size home are you looking for, frank? it's a buyer's market in the sub-1m tracts and vicara, but there's no supply in the 1m-1.4m range...
 
[quote author="almon" date=1234455371][quote author="frank69m" date=1234385108][quote author="almon" date=1234355055][quote author="earthbm" date=1234308688]How can anyone, including you, be sure of anything selling at a given price "tomorrow"? If I were the bank, the only thing I would be reasonably confident in would be that if I auction it today the odds of covering my $700k first lien are higher than if I wait. Judging by the cars parked there there is quite a bit of second lien debt on it, so the owners are under water, first lien creditor is protecting himself, and the second lien lender is screwed.</blockquote>


that's easy to answer -> i'm one confident sob!



real reason is i live 2 streets away, and know how much homes have gone for over the last 18 months in the sienna/chantilly/tapestry/olivos tracts. i don't know much about other tracks in quail hill, let alone other parts of irvine...but i monitor things when my wallet may get hit...</blockquote>




Do you know of any sellers up in Quail Hill. I'm looking at buying up there.</blockquote>


what size home are you looking for, frank? it's a buyer's market in the sub-1m tracts and vicara, but there's no supply in the 1m-1.4m range...</blockquote>




I'm looking around 2500sqft to 3100 sqft for around 900-1.2. I was originally looking at the Tapestry because I like those models, but the supply is very low and no foreclosures in that street.
 
[quote author="almon" date=1234455212]hiya irvine_home_owner...let's do this for fun only and peer into my crystal ball (btw, i'm also not a fan of olivos, the 1st floor is too small for a pricey home)...

</blockquote>
Yeah... those plans are strange. I understand the whole Great Room concept but the 1st floor still has to be sizeable.

<blockquote>

sienna plan 2 (which my wife and i love) 1.2m (20% off today) in a bank reo, 1.3m in non-reo

</blockquote>
Is that the one with the split-garage? Isn't 1.2m still high? I think they sold for less than that originally.

<blockquote>

tapestry plan 3 (which i know really well) 0.9m (18% off today) in a reo, 0.95m in non-reo

</blockquote>
One of my favorites because you can do the master retreat option. The master bathroom/closets are a bit small. I think these should go for less than $900k as non-reos.

<blockquote>

chantilly plan 2...i'll take a pass here...i never understood why anyone would build a 3-bedroom 3000 sq ft home. weren't the architects supposed to say, "this doesn't make sense, boss?!?"

</blockquote>
Yeah... and there is space for more upstairs rooms above the living rooms space. Technically it can be a 4br but then you lose the 3rd garage.



I like the Plan 3(4?) better. I think those should settle at a price less than Sienna... maybe $1m if not less.

<blockquote>

for some strange reason, there hasn't been enough sellers in quail hill to drive down prices for the tapestry/chantilly/sienna tracts...olivos is another story...</blockquote>
I agree.... and this is something that the macro misses because the micro is so variant depending on which area you look at. I guess $1mil is the sweet spot for FCBs.
 
<blockquote>

for some strange reason, there hasn't been enough sellers in quail hill to drive down prices for the tapestry/chantilly/sienna tracts...olivos is another story...</blockquote>
.



There has been virtually no turnover in Chantilly...until now. I think there was only 1-2 sales in the entire tract in both 2007 and 2008. But in the last month, 105 Bottlebrush has gone into default, 105 Tearose is for sale as a short sale, and 104 (?) Tearose is also for sale. I think the Plan 2s originally sold in the high $900s in the first couple of phases, up to about $1.2m (at the peak of the bubble--the original price for 105 Tearose was about $1.22m). It should be an interesting year.
 
We like Quail Hill too but are there any areas that are under $1m with atleast a small yard vs only a courtyard? Or is that too much to ask for still? :-)
 
[quote author="Bearman81" date=1234525764]We like Quail Hill too but are there any areas that are under $1m with atleast a small yard vs only a courtyard? Or is that too much to ask for still? :-)</blockquote>


1m will definitely get you a small yard, quail hill isn't manhattan : )



sage east village (on reunion and duet, across the street from the rentals) plan 4 would be 1500 sq ft, 3 small BRs and has a small yard. since it butts up against quail hill parkway which is curved, some yards are bigger than others. and there are yards that are nicer than million dollar homes on tapestry or chantilly tracts. take a walk on quail hill parkway and peek down. expect to pay high 5s. that would be the cheapest detached homes with small yards that i know...
 
[quote author="frank69m" date=1234473174][quote author="almon" date=1234455371][quote author="frank69m" date=1234385108][quote author="almon" date=1234355055][quote author="earthbm" date=1234308688]How can anyone, including you, be sure of anything selling at a given price "tomorrow"? If I were the bank, the only thing I would be reasonably confident in would be that if I auction it today the odds of covering my $700k first lien are higher than if I wait. Judging by the cars parked there there is quite a bit of second lien debt on it, so the owners are under water, first lien creditor is protecting himself, and the second lien lender is screwed.</blockquote>


that's easy to answer -> i'm one confident sob!



real reason is i live 2 streets away, and know how much homes have gone for over the last 18 months in the sienna/chantilly/tapestry/olivos tracts. i don't know much about other tracks in quail hill, let alone other parts of irvine...but i monitor things when my wallet may get hit...</blockquote>




Do you know of any sellers up in Quail Hill. I'm looking at buying up there.</blockquote>


what size home are you looking for, frank? it's a buyer's market in the sub-1m tracts and vicara, but there's no supply in the 1m-1.4m range...</blockquote>




I'm looking around 2500sqft to 3100 sqft for around 900-1.2. I was originally looking at the Tapestry because I like those models, but the supply is very low and no foreclosures in that street.</blockquote>


well...if you don't mind renting, you'll save money each month and can get into tapestry pretty easily. it's a good deal vs owning.
 
[quote author="almon" date=1234529094][quote author="frank69m" date=1234473174][quote author="almon" date=1234455371][quote author="frank69m" date=1234385108][quote author="almon" date=1234355055][quote author="earthbm" date=1234308688]How can anyone, including you, be sure of anything selling at a given price "tomorrow"? If I were the bank, the only thing I would be reasonably confident in would be that if I auction it today the odds of covering my $700k first lien are higher than if I wait. Judging by the cars parked there there is quite a bit of second lien debt on it, so the owners are under water, first lien creditor is protecting himself, and the second lien lender is screwed.</blockquote>


that's easy to answer -> i'm one confident sob!



real reason is i live 2 streets away, and know how much homes have gone for over the last 18 months in the sienna/chantilly/tapestry/olivos tracts. i don't know much about other tracks in quail hill, let alone other parts of irvine...but i monitor things when my wallet may get hit...</blockquote>




Do you know of any sellers up in Quail Hill. I'm looking at buying up there.</blockquote>


what size home are you looking for, frank? it's a buyer's market in the sub-1m tracts and vicara, but there's no supply in the 1m-1.4m range...</blockquote>




I'm looking around 2500sqft to 3100 sqft for around 900-1.2. I was originally looking at the Tapestry because I like those models, but the supply is very low and no foreclosures in that street.</blockquote>


well...if you don't mind renting, you'll save money each month and can get into tapestry pretty easily. it's a good deal vs owning.</blockquote>




Well I wouln't pay 4000 to rent or more. throwing money away....that is 48k a year down the drain. Buying makes more sense unless prices in Quail hill tumble 200k-300k, but I've seen no signs of it. Prices have held ok. have gone down but have held.



Not sure if i should buy now or the next few months up there or wait another 2 years.
 
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