Does anyone have the latest Foreclosure map in Quail Hill?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="graphrix" date=1234311271][quote author="almon" date=1234275012]can someone please explain how a house that can sell tomorrow at around $900k-1million can have an NOD in the 700 range? wouldn't they just sell it quickly? i live nearby, there is no way this puppy won't sell for that range.</blockquote>


There is a $160k second lien, plus back payments/fees, plus the $14k in taxes, and for some reason a $68 tax default. When you add in commissions, selling for $1mil would make it hard to break even. And I wouldn't be so confident that it could sell at that price, especially when they are trying to get their property taxes reassessed from their current tax base of $1mil. Maybe they read IHB?</blockquote>


Graph, can you figure out from the public records why 105 Tearose would be a short sale at $1.45m?
 
105 Bottlebrush can pull a $1.1mil price easily.



I don't think there has been a ~3000sft house that has sold in Quail Hill for less than $1mil in the last 6 months. 160 Tapestry went for $1.14mil and it's smaller and no view lot.
 
yep. average BofA share price over last 6 months -- $20. Price today -- under $6.



think the relevant question is where you think ~3000sft houses will sell in the next 6 months and where they will bottom. My guess? -- $200/sft. So I am not a buyer here.



EDIT -- ok, that was harshly worded. Here's where I get $200: $300 is ~fair based on incomes, $50 off for the economy and everyone's uncertainty over those incomes, $50 off for the oversupply of upper end houses in Irvine.



The new treasury secretary made his most important speech today... and the answer is... he can't save the world.
 
If 3000sft Quail Hill homes hit $600k in 6 months... I'll break lease.



I just don't know if such a drastic drop in prices will be good for the economy... just as there are a lot of people who responsibly bought homes and are being punished because they can't get loan mods... these same people are going to see their home values halved? As much as we like to see home prices plummet... there is that other side of the equation.
 
Not impossible, but far unlikely that it will hit $200/sq. ft.



However, it can't happenin 6 months because the home market is illiquid.
 
Yep, can't be good for the economy, and it is not.



I would break lease too if it were $200/sft. Hence this is my bottom price. I would not break lease for $300/sft. I would consider my employment prospects and think very hard about it if it were $250.



Think this house would lease for ~$4000-4500/mth now (probably less in 6 months time). So ~$50k/yr rental value. Less HOA, less property tax, less structure depreciation, so ~$35k/yr. Assuming 70% mortgage at 5% you get $25k/yr interest payments at inception, so ~$10k in tax saving from interest deduction, net $45k. Capitalized at 5% it is $900k, or $300/sft. I'd rather have the flexibility of a lease.
 
[quote author="earthbm" date=1234325024]Yep, can't be good for the economy, and it is not.



I would break lease too if it were $200/sft. Hence this is my bottom price. I would not break lease for $300/sft. I would consider my employment prospects and think very hard about it if it were $250.



Think this house would lease for ~$4000-4500/mth now (probably less in 6 months time). So ~$50k/yr rental value. Less HOA, less property tax, less structure depreciation, so ~$35k/yr. Assuming 70% mortgage at 5% you get $25k/yr interest payments at inception, so ~$10k in tax saving from interest deduction, net $45k. Capitalized at 5% it is $900k, or $300/sft. I'd rather have the flexibility of a lease.</blockquote>
The lowest I've seen a Chantilly rent for is one that is listed right now, 105 Capeberry, for $4700... so you're close.



I think I would bite at $300/sft if it was a view lot... at $250... definitely.
 
105 Capeberry was available back when I was looking, less than a year ago. Unless they had a 6mth lease in the meantime, it has been vacant for a year now. So I think $4700 is the OFFER price. I think a BID price closer to $4000 would be accepted. 122 Treehouse was listed for $4000 (no view) recently.
 
[quote author="earthbm" date=1234327525]105 Capeberry was available back when I was looking, less than a year ago. Unless they had a 6mth lease in the meantime, it has been vacant for a year now. So I think $4700 is the OFFER price. I think a BID price closer to $4000 would be accepted. 122 Treehouse was listed for $4000 (no view) recently.</blockquote>
It was occupied... but is vacant now. They lowered it from $4900 to $4700 recently.



122 Treehouse is an Olivos plan, not Chantilly... there is a significant difference between the two models. I doubt they will take $4000.



There hasn't been a recent Chantilly in the last year to rent out for $4000. The last one on IR2s list was $5000 in April 08 and one I looked at in December of 08 was $4750 (it was pulled off because the current tenants extended their lease).



You can get Olivos or Tapestry models for $3800-4200... but not Chantilly, Sienna or higher.



But like sales prices... that will probably go down (hopefully). If I can rent a Chantilly for $4k during the summer... I'll do it.
 
Ok, thanks, you are obviously pretty well informed. (you name conflicts with you leasing, by the way).



Either way, it is too far from where I think owning makes sense. I am an economic girlie-man, in the words of our governator.
 
[quote author="earthbm" date=1234330633]Ok, thanks, you are obviously pretty well informed. (you name conflicts with you leasing, by the way).



Either way, it is too far from where I think owning makes sense. I am an economic girlie-man, in the words of our governator.</blockquote>
I totally agree... I really wish I had thought about rental parity back in '05.



As for my screen name... I was an Irvine home owner when I joined this board... but after reading some threads and PMs to IR and IPO... that changed and now I'm an IHL.



I posted a thread about it:



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewreply/88099/">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewreply/88099/</a>
 
[quote author="earthbm" date=1234308688]How can anyone, including you, be sure of anything selling at a given price "tomorrow"? If I were the bank, the only thing I would be reasonably confident in would be that if I auction it today the odds of covering my $700k first lien are higher than if I wait. Judging by the cars parked there there is quite a bit of second lien debt on it, so the owners are under water, first lien creditor is protecting himself, and the second lien lender is screwed.</blockquote>


that's easy to answer -> i'm one confident sob!



real reason is i live 2 streets away, and know how much homes have gone for over the last 18 months in the sienna/chantilly/tapestry/olivos tracts. i don't know much about other tracks in quail hill, let alone other parts of irvine...but i monitor things when my wallet may get hit...
 
[quote author="almon" date=1234355055][quote author="earthbm" date=1234308688]How can anyone, including you, be sure of anything selling at a given price "tomorrow"? If I were the bank, the only thing I would be reasonably confident in would be that if I auction it today the odds of covering my $700k first lien are higher than if I wait. Judging by the cars parked there there is quite a bit of second lien debt on it, so the owners are under water, first lien creditor is protecting himself, and the second lien lender is screwed.</blockquote>


that's easy to answer -> i'm one confident sob!



real reason is i live 2 streets away, and know how much homes have gone for over the last 18 months in the sienna/chantilly/tapestry/olivos tracts. i don't know much about other tracks in quail hill, let alone other parts of irvine...but i monitor things when my wallet may get hit...</blockquote>




Do you know of any sellers up in Quail Hill. I'm looking at buying up there.
 
[quote author="frank69m" date=1234385108][quote author="almon" date=1234355055][quote author="earthbm" date=1234308688]How can anyone, including you, be sure of anything selling at a given price "tomorrow"? If I were the bank, the only thing I would be reasonably confident in would be that if I auction it today the odds of covering my $700k first lien are higher than if I wait. Judging by the cars parked there there is quite a bit of second lien debt on it, so the owners are under water, first lien creditor is protecting himself, and the second lien lender is screwed.</blockquote>


that's easy to answer -> i'm one confident sob!



real reason is i live 2 streets away, and know how much homes have gone for over the last 18 months in the sienna/chantilly/tapestry/olivos tracts. i don't know much about other tracks in quail hill, let alone other parts of irvine...but i monitor things when my wallet may get hit...</blockquote>




Do you know of any sellers up in Quail Hill. I'm looking at buying up there.</blockquote>


Don't know any sellers but here are maps for the QH floorplans which is useful

http://quailhillhomes.com/
 
[quote author="frank69m" date=1234385108]Do you know of any sellers up in Quail Hill. I'm looking at buying up there.</blockquote>


You are in luck!



Bank of America

Wells Fargo

WaMu (JP Morgan)

and other lenders to the 16 foreclosing properties on the map on page 1! Plus there is the perenial favorite, 51 Momento!



Don't take me wrong, Quail Hill is a good place to live (if the hum of 405 doesn't bother you), just came near the top of the market so too many houses are "investments under water" rather than "homes". I think it is better than Turtle Ridge, for what it's worth.
 
[quote author="almon" date=1234355055][quote author="earthbm" date=1234308688]How can anyone, including you, be sure of anything selling at a given price "tomorrow"? If I were the bank, the only thing I would be reasonably confident in would be that if I auction it today the odds of covering my $700k first lien are higher than if I wait. Judging by the cars parked there there is quite a bit of second lien debt on it, so the owners are under water, first lien creditor is protecting himself, and the second lien lender is screwed.</blockquote>


that's easy to answer -> i'm one confident sob!



real reason is i live 2 streets away, and know how much homes have gone for over the last 18 months in the sienna/chantilly/tapestry/olivos tracts. i don't know much about other tracks in quail hill, let alone other parts of irvine...but i monitor things when my wallet may get hit...</blockquote>
So how low do you think Sienna/Chantilly/Tapestry homes will go? (I'm not a fan of the Olivos floorplans)
 
<blockquote>



Don't know any sellers but here are maps for the QH floorplans which is useful

http://quailhillhomes.com/</blockquote>




This site is kinda odd and could be fraud because every home there is "sold by todd"...
 
[quote author="frank69m" date=1234434475]<blockquote>



Don't know any sellers but here are maps for the QH floorplans which is useful

http://quailhillhomes.com/</blockquote>




This site is kinda odd and could be fraud because every home there is "sold by todd"...</blockquote>


It's a realtor's website, of course he has his own listings on there only.

I gave the url just for the floorplans - click on the name of the floorplan to see the floorplan (ex. click on "Jasmine" to see the Jasmine floorplan, and so on.
 
You guys have it backwards. Its not that lower home prices aren't good for the economy, its that this economy is not good for high home prices. These are still outrageous prices. You gotta factor in all the job losses and lower wages, deflation. It will take its toll on any housing market. And as taxes are being raised in CA as we speak, does anyone read the paper anymore? And I'm not talking about the comic section. Do you really think people have cash flow for this knowing there isn't a sucker behind them a few years down the road willing to pay a hell of a lot more for your house? There are fewer and fewer jobs that allow you to make high six figures for hanging out at Starbucks playing with your laptop. And not to mention easy credit. Companies are going to be moving outside of CA again like they have in the past, costs of doing business here, including taxes, are just getting to outlandish levels again. We recalled a Governor for his idiotics tax polices, now the guy were replaced him with is doing the same damn thing. Most of the folks in this state, esp OC, need a severe reality check. RE: real estate prices, History won't be repeating itself for a very long time!
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1234448684]You guys have it backwards. Its not that lower home prices aren't good for the economy, its that this economy is not good for high home prices. These are still outrageous prices. You gotta factor in all the job losses and lower wages, deflation. It will take its toll on any housing market. And as taxes are being raised in CA as we speak, does anyone read the paper anymore? And I'm not talking about the comic section. Do you really think people have cash flow for this knowing there isn't a sucker behind them a few years down the road willing to pay a hell of a lot more for your house? There are fewer and fewer jobs that allow you to make high six figures for hanging out at Starbucks playing with your laptop. And not to mention easy credit. Companies are going to be moving outside of CA again like they have in the past, costs of doing business here, including taxes, are just getting to outlandish levels again. We recalled a Governor for his idiotics tax polices, now the guy were replaced him with is doing the same damn thing. Most of the folks in this state, esp OC, need a severe reality check. RE: real estate prices, History won't be repeating itself for a very long time!</blockquote>
So which is the chicken and which is the egg?



Did high home prices ruin the economy? Bad lending? Or was the economy already going to be ruined and high home prices just accelerated it?



It so easy to look back and point fingers... but would the economy have crashed even if home prices didn't skyrocket?



Is it fair to halve the home values of responsible owners? I don't mind either way... I'm just wondering.
 
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