Did Irvine prices get "destroyed"?

[IndieDev]

Oh I see... when I say that the Irvine Company has influence on Irvine real estate prices, that's called water cooler logic... but when irvinehomeshopper says it... it's gospel.

You arguing that TIC can control the direction of prices by not building homes, and IHS claiming that Irvine home prices are buoyed by higher new home sale prices are two totally different points. So maybe it's not a lie per say, but you definitely missed the point of IHS post.

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

I don't think there is a lifestyle premium. Every thing about homeownership is inferior. However what made it special is the cult followers believing in paying so much for getting so little in return. Now that to me is unusual.

All those parkways, pocket parks and pools are not free. You paid for them and continue to pay for them for the rest of your life even you don't use them and you still have to pay for them. The way I see it. It is just an expensive way to keep out the Riff riffs but they can still tag your walls if they wanted to.

Oh I see... when I say that the Irvine Company has influence on Irvine real estate prices, that's called water cooler logic... but when irvinehomeshopper says it... it's gospel.

Or is that a lie?

... we just popped IHO's bubble of his Unicornland. Irvine is not special.

How isn't Irvine special? All those places you named are miles and miles away from Orange County. By your own admission, because Irvine is under the influence of a master developer... that makes it different, or special, compared to surrounding cities in Orange County.

I don't think Irvine is any better than many surrounding cities... my own personal reasons (work, family, friends) puts it at the top of the list... but had I a situation like PatStar (which is very unique when you think about it)... Irvine would also be in the rear-view mirror.

I think your answer comes closest to partly explaining the "premium" Irvine has over surrounding cities... but there is more to that equation. The "pessimists" don't want to answer because that would be admitting there is some difference, which is obvious just by looking at prices of homes, apartment rental rates and even retail rental rates.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Oh I see... when I say that the Irvine Company has influence on Irvine real estate prices, that's called water cooler logic... but when irvinehomeshopper says it... it's gospel.

You arguing that TIC can control the direction of prices by not building homes, and IHS claiming that Irvine home prices are buoyed by higher new home sale prices are two totally different points. So maybe it's not a lie per say, but you definitely missed the point of IHS post.

Semantics as a defense does not suit you.

You are taking one specific thing I said... before you joined TalkIrvine, there was a similar discussion where I opined TIC's pricing on new homes influences resale pricing. The counter was that TIC doesn't set pricing... that consumers do. And while I understand that viewpoint... I can't discount that TIC's benchmarks does affect resale because it's natural to compare similar products.

 

[qwerty]

im not sure how you can say irvines prices are supported by TIC and therefore irvine has been resilient and then at the same time say irvine is not special.  while irvine itself and what is offers is relatively bland, the price support from TIC, i would say makes its special. in the same way Porter Ranch, Rancho Cucamonga and Gale Ranch are special.

 

[IndieDev]

Oh I see... when I say that the Irvine Company has influence on Irvine real estate prices, that's called water cooler logic... but when irvinehomeshopper says it... it's gospel.

You arguing that TIC can control the direction of prices by not building homes, and IHS claiming that Irvine home prices are buoyed by higher new home sale prices are two totally different points. So maybe it's not a lie per say, but you definitely missed the point of IHS post.

Semantics as a defense does not suit you.

What does this have to do with semantics? Semantics would imply that I misunderstood your statement based on a specific word, or phrase.

You flat out said that TIC could simply stop building homes to prevent Irvine home prices from falling, to which I replied, TIC didn't control the housing market of Irvine to that degree because a significant resale market exist.

That's not what IHS was saying, your argument is completely different.

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

Are you sure we weren't separated at birth because you precisely explained my point. Irvine Company can't control home prices without building new homes. If TIC stopped building and not released the 2010 Collection home prices would have dropped much lower as the bears predicted.

The existing resale sufferd the most is the attached condo and flats because TIC did not build products currently that resemble that building type. Without new benchmark pricing the homeowners could not price their homes aggressively.

TIC can't save the plummeted prices for attached condos and flats as Trojan pointed out the sector that took the most hit. To prove my point TIC can't control prices.

Oh I see... when I say that the Irvine Company has influence on Irvine real estate prices, that's called water cooler logic... but when irvinehomeshopper says it... it's gospel.

You arguing that TIC can control the direction of prices by not building homes, and IHS claiming that Irvine home prices are buoyed by higher new home sale prices are two totally different points. So maybe it's not a lie per say, but you definitely missed the point of IHS post.

 

[IndieDev]

Are you sure we weren't separated at birth because you precisely explained my point. Irvine Company can't control home prices without building new homes. If TIC stopped building and not released the 2010 Collection home prices would have dropped much lower as the bears predicted.

The existing resale sufferd the most is the attached condo and flats because TIC did not build products currently that resemble that building type. Without new benchmark pricing the homeowners could not price their homes aggressively.

TIC can't save the plummeted prices for attached condos and flats as Trojan pointed out the sector that took the most hit. To prove my point TIC can't control prices.

Oh I see... when I say that the Irvine Company has influence on Irvine real estate prices, that's called water cooler logic... but when irvinehomeshopper says it... it's gospel.

You arguing that TIC can control the direction of prices by not building homes, and IHS claiming that Irvine home prices are buoyed by higher new home sale prices are two totally different points. So maybe it's not a lie per say, but you definitely missed the point of IHS post.

I wish I could find that thread (don't feel motivated enough to search for an 11 month old thread), but I said pretty much the exact same thing; TIC is in the business of new homes, and they aren't going to stop building them in some insane attempt to constrict supply and stop price correction. They would be shooting themselves in the face to remove a pimple. It's much better to let nature take its course, and the pimple... err bubble, will simply deflate away as time passes.

I remember when irvinehomeowner made that argument a year ago, and I literally put my hand to my head in frustration.

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

TIC does not set pricings because the consumers do. Take Portola Springs for example. TIC set a high bar and having to re-adjust prices because the area does not sell well. Consumers fought back slightly so Stonegate has a much reasonable price point. Laguna Altura is another example. TIC will eventually terminate the existing products and introduce new but different products with driveways at a lower price points instead of taking the current products in admitting that they are greedy and lowering the price.

Oh I see... when I say that the Irvine Company has influence on Irvine real estate prices, that's called water cooler logic... but when irvinehomeshopper says it... it's gospel.

You arguing that TIC can control the direction of prices by not building homes, and IHS claiming that Irvine home prices are buoyed by higher new home sale prices are two totally different points. So maybe it's not a lie per say, but you definitely missed the point of IHS post.

Semantics as a defense does not suit you.

You are taking one specific thing I said... before you joined TalkIrvine, there was a similar discussion where I opined TIC's pricing on new homes influences resale pricing. The counter was that TIC doesn't set pricing... that consumers do. And while I understand that viewpoint... I can't discount that TIC's benchmarks does affect resale because it's natural to compare similar products.

 

[IndieDev]

Just to clarify, I've never said Irvine is a junk city with no redeeming qualities. That's mostly inferred, but not necessarily accurate. 

Irvine is centrally located to major highways, an airport, and two major cities, and as I mentioned in my other thread, it's becoming an economic center of OC. "Good schools" is icing on the cake.

But Irvine isn't immune (aka special) when it comes to price correction. I think the 30-35% median drop in price since 2006, and the continuing downward pricing trend is evidence of that.

 

[socalquest]

TIC does not set pricings because the consumers do. Take Portola Springs for example. TIC set a high bar and having to re-adjust prices because the area does not sell well. Consumers fought back slightly so Stonegate has a much reasonable price point. Laguna Altura is another example. TIC will eventually terminate the existing products and introduce new but different products with driveways at a lower price points instead of taking the current products in admitting that they are greedy and lowering the price.

I agree with you on this. I think TIC will likely abandon the Sienna and San Remo tracts as both are selling VERY poorly, and in their replacement, something similar to the Cortona/Toscana tract.

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

Hello????? Comeback???? Are you all back to your regular job?  I don't need to worry about my job since I don't have an Irvine mortgage. I am just waiting here for the next conflict.

 

[MovingOnUp]

Why are we keep beating a dead horse. When the fire is about to go out TIC add more firewood to the fire to keep the flame burning. Homesellers use new homes prices to gauge their asking price. Without the new homes prices comps would have slipped into the 30%. This is plain and simple. There is no magic in Irvine. It is not a special place. The only unicorn is inside the zipper of the banker running the monopoly.

i think the point is that TIC has plenty of firewood to keep that fire going.  you are spot on that their pricing of new product dictates the resale market and as long as they keep slowly adding product at high prices, the relatively new irvine product will hold better.

What happened? You used to give ihs a hard time, now I find you on every thread hanging on his nuts.

 

[qwerty]

I think IHS has crossed the line of trying to educate IHO and has moved on to trying to convince IHO that irvine is not good for him.  If IHO is dead set on irvine, just let it be. That is what is most convenient for him and his family, like many of you say, if he can afford it and he is happy, just let him buy another house in irvine.

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

I am not trying to convince him not to buy in Irvine. I am just trying to clear the air why Irvine prices behaved a certain way and no different from other areas vested by a master developer.

It is a good thing for the colonists when Mothership comes back to keep the flame burning. However just like history the colonists had to pay HOAs and MR and the citizens complained vehemently. Only a few were willing to throw an Irvine Tea Party.

 

[panda]

For me, I think Bkshopr opened my eyes. At first I thought he was some bitter guy who hated Irvine, but now when I think about it... I think he really cared about you guys. The day when I decided not to move to Irvine was the day of the 2010 Woodbury Collection opening. I was probably a bigger Irvine God worshipper than IHO and PatStar back then. I actually met IHO in person for the first time that day.

I can't put a finger on it, but Irvine was starting to change for the worse. The city is starting to kill its natural beauty for profit optimization. Drive down enclave 1 of PS where Serra and Las Colinas sits, and 80% of the people who live in those homes are Asian immigrants who don't speak a word of english. When I first moved to Atlanta, I wondered if i settled for something I really wanted, but now I am 100% sure that I made the right decision for my family, financially, and my small business without any regrets.

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

So have you met this legend in person? Sounded like a modern day Robinhood by stealing from the rich and giving the loots to the poor.

For me, I think Bkshopr opened my eyes. At first I thought he was some bitter guy who hated Irvine, but now when I think about it... I think he really cared about you guys. The day when I decided not to move to Irvine was the day of the 2010 Woodbury Collection opening. I was probably a bigger Irvine God worshipper than IHO and PatStar back then. I actually met IHO in person for the first time that day.

I can't put a finger on it, but Irvine was starting to change for the worse. The city is starting to kill its natural beauty for profit optimization. Drive down enclave 1 of PS where Serra and Las Colinas sits, and 80% of the people who live in those homes are Asian immigrants who don't speak a word of english. When I first moved to Atlanta, I wondered if i settled for something I really wanted, but now I am 100% sure that I made the right decision for my family, financially, and my small business without any regrets.

 

[The Motor Court Company]

TIC does have attached and flat products in Santa Clara and Santa Maria, which sell even worse than Laguna Altura, so it is not about supply but rather about the very weak demand in these products. I think new home constructions actually hurt resales because it takes away some of the demand.

Are you sure we weren't separated at birth because you precisely explained my point. Irvine Company can't control home prices without building new homes. If TIC stopped building and not released the 2010 Collection home prices would have dropped much lower as the bears predicted.

The existing resale sufferd the most is the attached condo and flats because TIC did not build products currently that resemble that building type. Without new benchmark pricing the homeowners could not price their homes aggressively.

TIC can't save the plummeted prices for attached condos and flats as Trojan pointed out the sector that took the most hit. To prove my point TIC can't control prices.

Oh I see... when I say that the Irvine Company has influence on Irvine real estate prices, that's called water cooler logic... but when irvinehomeshopper says it... it's gospel.

You arguing that TIC can control the direction of prices by not building homes, and IHS claiming that Irvine home prices are buoyed by higher new home sale prices are two totally different points. So maybe it's not a lie per say, but you definitely missed the point of IHS post.

 

[usctrojancpa]

I have a theory why attached condos and even some detached condos have not held their values like detached SFRs.  I believe that the majority of the for-sale housing in Irvine is made up of condos, probably a higher percentage than most all other cities in OC.  My guess is that the foreclosure wave hit the attached products the hardest since the weakest hands bought them with funny money.  So it's a supply and demand issue which is driving the prices down.  If you were to go look on MLS or redfin in any random village in Irvine, you would see that there are about 3-5x more attached condos for sale very single family residences.  I think a lot of buyers are focusing on buying a detached SFR hence the low supply is limiting the price declines, especially with the more popular floor plans like Camelia Plan B in Northwood II.  The newer villages tend to have an even large percentage of condos versus detached SFRs because TIC is trying to squeeze out as much profit as it can by increasing the density. 

 

[The Motor Court Company]

Lower interest rates actually hurt attached condos that have high HOAs (which become even higher due to foreclosures/short sales). The HOA fees you save by going with SFRs at low interest rates means you have more buying power.
I recall from one of TIC's home buying seminar, with taxes, mortgage and HOA fees, plan 3 of the attached Santa Maria costs about the same as plan 1 of the detached San Mateo. I think most people would choose detached given the same monthly cost, if down payment can be met.

I have a theory why attached condos and even some detached condos have not held their values like detached SFRs.  I believe that the majority of the for-sale housing in Irvine is made up of condos, probably a higher percentage than most all other cities in OC.  My guess is that the foreclosure wave hit the attached products the hardest since the weakest hands bought them with funny money.  So it's a supply and demand issue which is driving the prices down.  If you were to go look on MLS or redfin in any random village in Irvine, you would see that there are about 3-5x more attached condos for sale very single family residences.  I think a lot of buyers are focusing on buying a detached SFR hence the low supply is limiting the price declines, especially with the more popular floor plans like Camelia Plan B in Northwood II.  The newer villages tend to have an even large percentage of condos versus detached SFRs because TIC is trying to squeeze out as much profit as it can by increasing the density.

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

The motor court detached products have relatively bad perception due the the lack of front door identity and driveway. The poor absorption is the reason TIC not being able to raise the price ceiling of this product so that project like Santa Maria and Santa Clara directly below it kept its pricings around $300k-$450k for attached condos and flats. Now let's rewind back to 2004 and 2005 when similar products were sold in high $500k - mid $600k. These products indirectly were hurt big time in their resale. Buyers could get a detached home at that price. These products have not moved until the owners slashed their prices by $150-200k to meet the new comps set by TIC 's new condos. It is a huge risk to buy attached because price will depreciate when TIC decides to end This type of solution.

TIC does have attached and flat products in Santa Clara and Santa Maria, which sell even worse than Laguna Altura, so it is not about supply but rather about the very weak demand in these products. I think new home constructions actually hurt resales because it takes away some of the demand.

Are you sure we weren't separated at birth because you precisely explained my point. Irvine Company can't control home prices without building new homes. If TIC stopped building and not released the 2010 Collection home prices would have dropped much lower as the bears predicted.

The existing resale sufferd the most is the attached condo and flats because TIC did not build products currently that resemble that building type. Without new benchmark pricing the homeowners could not price their homes aggressively.

TIC can't save the plummeted prices for attached condos and flats as Trojan pointed out the sector that took the most hit. To prove my point TIC can't control prices.

Oh I see... when I say that the Irvine Company has influence on Irvine real estate prices, that's called water cooler logic... but when irvinehomeshopper says it... it's gospel.

You arguing that TIC can control the direction of prices by not building homes, and IHS claiming that Irvine home prices are buoyed by higher new home sale prices are two totally different points. So maybe it's not a lie per say, but you definitely missed the point of IHS post.