Current forecast for Irvine bottom?

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[quote author="awgee" date=1258541512]I dunno. If I was looking for a bottom, I would not want to have my heart set on Irvine. Irvine is turning out to be the anomaly to the norm.</blockquote>


Awgee, aren't homes prices in Coto much higher than Irvine? Do you know how much median home prices in Coto has come down since 2006 compared to Irvine? I am almost convinced this is the bottom for Irvine home prices if mortgage rates stay at 5% for the next 10 years which will not happen. There is absolutely no way Irvine real estate can not go down once we see higher mortgage rates and 15% unemployment rates in Irvine which i see happening between 2010 - 2012. In the worst case scenario, if you are holding physical gold... Irvine real estate will depreciate atleast 50% against the yellow metal. You will beat out the foreign Korean and Chinese who are buying the Irvine goods with their won and yuan.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1258587851][quote author="awgee" date=1258587412][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258587041][quote author="sad.machine" date=1258512007]I know initially it was at 2011



Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?



Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease? What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?</blockquote>


Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past <strong>a</strong> bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip. The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.



Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.</blockquote>


You are wrong again. Check the numbers.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine">Source (the graph in the middle-click on HOUSE or CONDO to see the two numbers, for $/sq ft, sold)</a></blockquote>
You are not wrong about Irvine. Your are wrong that <em>"Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar."</em>
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258601515][quote author="awgee" date=1258541512]I dunno. If I was looking for a bottom, I would not want to have my heart set on Irvine. Irvine is turning out to be the anomaly to the norm.</blockquote>


Awgee, aren't homes prices in Coto much higher than Irvine? Do you know how much median home prices in Coto has come down since 2006 compared to Irvine? I am almost convinced this is the bottom for Irvine home prices if mortgage rates stay at 5% for the next 10 years which will not happen. There is absolutely no way Irvine real estate can not go down once we see higher mortgage rates and 15% unemployment rates in Irvine which i see happening between 2010 - 2012. In the worst case scenario, if you are holding physical gold... Irvine real estate will depreciate atleast 50% against the yellow metal. You will beat out the foreign Korean and Chinese who are buying the Irvine goods with their won and yuan.</blockquote>
For a comparable square footage home with comparable lot area, I would guess that Irvine may be a bit more expensive. But, there are some areas of Irvine which are more expensive than others, yes? Price in Coto have declined much more than prices in Irvine. Irvine is anomaly, and of course there are going to be some exceptions to the norm. Although I think prices will continue to fall in nominal dollars, I tend to think the time is close when re prices will only continue to fall in real dollars.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258613412][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258587851][quote author="awgee" date=1258587412][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258587041][quote author="sad.machine" date=1258512007]I know initially it was at 2011



Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?



Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease? What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?</blockquote>


Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past <strong>a</strong> bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip. The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.



Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.</blockquote>


You are wrong again. Check the numbers.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine">Source (the graph in the middle-click on HOUSE or CONDO to see the two numbers, for $/sq ft, sold)</a></blockquote>
You are not wrong about Irvine. Your are wrong that <em>"Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar."</em></blockquote>


Awgee, can you explain? Is Irvine the only area where home prices are down 10% from the peak compared to the rest of Orange County? Even the Irvine writer for OCRegister, Erika Chalvez just bought a home in Orange instead of Irvine. Did she also throw in the towel? Did she settle for a chevrolet? What gives? I read her stuff daily and it is not the same.



Sad Panda.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258613657][quote author="PANDA" date=1258601515][quote author="awgee" date=1258541512]I dunno. If I was looking for a bottom, I would not want to have my heart set on Irvine. Irvine is turning out to be the anomaly to the norm.</blockquote>


Awgee, aren't homes prices in Coto much higher than Irvine? Do you know how much median home prices in Coto has come down since 2006 compared to Irvine? I am almost convinced this is the bottom for Irvine home prices if mortgage rates stay at 5% for the next 10 years which will not happen. There is absolutely no way Irvine real estate can not go down once we see higher mortgage rates and 15% unemployment rates in Irvine which i see happening between 2010 - 2012. In the worst case scenario, if you are holding physical gold... Irvine real estate will depreciate atleast 50% against the yellow metal. You will beat out the foreign Korean and Chinese who are buying the Irvine goods with their won and yuan.</blockquote>
For a comparable square footage home with comparable lot area, I would guess that Irvine may be a bit more expensive. But, there are some areas of Irvine which are more expensive than others, yes? Price in Coto have declined much more than prices in Irvine. Irvine is anomaly, and of course there are going to be some exceptions to the norm. Although I think prices will continue to fall in nominal dollars, I tend to think the time is close when re prices will only continue to fall in real dollars.</blockquote>


Awww Awgee. Dont' say that. You are the biggest housing bear on IHB we all look up to. Please tell me that $575k median is the not bottom for Irvine. Please tell me it ain't so.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258614013][quote author="awgee" date=1258613412][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258587851][quote author="awgee" date=1258587412][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258587041][quote author="sad.machine" date=1258512007]I know initially it was at 2011



Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?



Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease? What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?</blockquote>


Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past <strong>a</strong> bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip. The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.



Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.</blockquote>


You are wrong again. Check the numbers.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine">Source (the graph in the middle-click on HOUSE or CONDO to see the two numbers, for $/sq ft, sold)</a></blockquote>
You are not wrong about Irvine. Your are wrong that <em>"Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar."</em></blockquote>


Awgee, can you explain? Is Irvine the only area where home prices are down 10% from the peak compared to the rest of Orange County? Even the Irvine writer for OCRegister, Erika Chalvez just bought a home in Orange instead of Irvine. What gives? I read her stuff daily.</blockquote>


Prices in Coto are down a minimium of 30% and much more for some homes.

The only explanation I have for Irvine is that the FCBs and other cash buyers want to live in Irvine because of the schools and a feeling of community. I did not think the FCBs were any more numerous than previous years or would have any more effect than previously, but it appears I was wrong. I still think that just as in previous So Cal real estate down turns, the FCBs are going to get their clocks cleaned along with anyone else buying now who thinks that the bottom is in and is using that idea for a reason to buy. This is not the first time FCBs have bought supposedly depressed So Cal real estate and it did not turn out well for them last time. Check out what happened to the Japanese who bought LA real estate in the 90's, (or was it the 80's)?. It kinda cracks me up that folks think this is all somehow new. What do you think?











Soylent Green may know more about this and comment about it, but as I watch every sale in Coto, it appears that no one can buy a home with a loan of more than $750,000 without at least 30% down. This, along with huge equity losses seems to have taken a huge toll on the move up buyer.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258601515][quote author="awgee" date=1258541512]I dunno. If I was looking for a bottom, I would not want to have my heart set on Irvine. Irvine is turning out to be the anomaly to the norm.</blockquote>


Awgee, aren't homes prices in Coto much higher than Irvine? Do you know how much median home prices in Coto has come down since 2006 compared to Irvine? I am almost convinced this is the bottom for Irvine home prices if mortgage rates stay at 5% for the next 10 years which will not happen. There is absolutely no way Irvine real estate can not go down once we see higher mortgage rates and 15% unemployment rates in Irvine which i see happening between 2010 - 2012. In the worst case scenario, if you are holding physical gold... Irvine real estate will depreciate atleast 50% against the yellow metal. You will beat out the foreign Korean and Chinese who are buying the Irvine goods with their won and yuan.</blockquote>


golds going down like a korean hooker on nicholas cage
 
Sad. very sad. Can't you just say... "Hey Panda, I think gold is headed down from here and provide your reasons?" Yo mamma needs to clean your mouth with some soap. I miss Newportskipper when I see a waste-of-an-avitar like sad.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258615073][quote author="PANDA" date=1258614013][quote author="awgee" date=1258613412][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258587851][quote author="awgee" date=1258587412][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258587041][quote author="sad.machine" date=1258512007]I know initially it was at 2011



Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?



Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease? What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?</blockquote>


Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past <strong>a</strong> bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip. The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.



Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.</blockquote>


You are wrong again. Check the numbers.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine">Source (the graph in the middle-click on HOUSE or CONDO to see the two numbers, for $/sq ft, sold)</a></blockquote>
You are not wrong about Irvine. Your are wrong that <em>"Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar."</em></blockquote>


Awgee, can you explain? Is Irvine the only area where home prices are down 10% from the peak compared to the rest of Orange County? Even the Irvine writer for OCRegister, Erika Chalvez just bought a home in Orange instead of Irvine. What gives? I read her stuff daily.</blockquote>


Prices in Coto are down a minimium of 30% and much more for some homes.

The only explanation I have for Irvine is that the FCBs and other cash buyers want to live in Irvine because of the schools and a feeling of community. I did not think the FCBs were any more numerous than previous years or would have any more effect than previously, but it appears I was wrong. I still think that just as in previous So Cal real estate down turns, the FCBs are going to get their clocks cleaned along with anyone else buying now who thinks that the bottom is in and is using that idea for a reason to buy. This is not the first time FCBs have bought supposedly depressed So Cal real estate and it did not turn out well for them last time. Check out what happened to the Japanese who bought LA real estate in the 90's, (or was it the 80's)?. It kinda cracks me up that folks think this is all somehow new. What do you think?











Soylent Green may know more about this and comment about it, but as I watch every sale in Coto, it appears that no one can buy a home with a loan of more than $750,000 without at least 30% down. This, along with huge equity losses seems to have taken a huge toll on the move up buyer.</blockquote>


I heard that some parents moved to Irvine because the gifted programs in their school districts were shut due to budget cuts, so they moved to Irvine.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258613412][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258587851][quote author="awgee" date=1258587412][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258587041][quote author="sad.machine" date=1258512007]I know initially it was at 2011



Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?



Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease? What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?</blockquote>


Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past <strong>a</strong> bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip. The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.



Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.</blockquote>


You are wrong again. Check the numbers.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine">Source (the graph in the middle-click on HOUSE or CONDO to see the two numbers, for $/sq ft, sold)</a></blockquote>
You are not wrong about Irvine. Your are wrong that <em>"Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar."</em></blockquote>


Most, if not all, markets in SoCal are either recovering or are flat. More expensive areas like Irvine bottomed first, but pretty much all have bottomed. Clicking around, I couldn't find one that was still falling.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258614013]



Awgee, can you explain? Is Irvine the only area where home prices are down 10% from the peak compared to the rest of Orange County? Even the Irvine writer for OCRegister, Erika Chalvez just bought a home in Orange instead of Irvine. Did she also throw in the towel? Did she settle for a chevrolet? What gives? I read her stuff daily and it is not the same.



Sad Panda.</blockquote>


May be Erica bought one of the quaint cottages in Old Town Orange where the California Room correctly positioned is at the front of the house. I would be terribly disappointed had she bought in other places being a specialist in housing. No master chef want to eat hamburgers produced in an assembly line.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1258675021]

Most, if not all, markets in SoCal are either recovering or are flat. More expensive areas like Irvine bottomed first, but pretty much all have bottomed. Clicking around, I couldn't find one that was still falling.</blockquote>
Wait... I thought you previously said the least expensive areas like the IE bottomed first.
 
IE might have bottom first but the duration last much longer than Irvine while Irvine's bottom came much later and quick to a speedy rebound due to your FCB theory.



Chinese buyers behave pretty much the same globally. They bid up housing prices so others can't afford it, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Shanghai, Vancouver, Toronto, Irvine, Arcadia, Silicon Valley, San Ramon and Dublin just to name a few where cost of housing are all artificially inflated than the true value of the properties. In all of the scenarios FAR (Floor Area Ratio) is disproportion to the area of the land.



FAR is the developers trade secret. Consumers are too stupid to understand it thinking buying a house is all about the footage of the living area not knowing FAR is the factor that dictates the quality of life by ways of parking congestion and privacy conflict.
 
[quote author="Sunshine" date=1258716519][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1258715300]I don't think our family fits in anywhere. My husband and I our Caucasian but we have Panamanian and Mexican kids. Surprisingly, the kids at school have never questioned my kids about the race differences in our family. But boy do the parents. <strong>Adults are terribly noisy. It saddens me that I have to ask other parents not to integrate my kids about being adopted</strong>.</blockquote>


So friggin' rude. I'm not looking forward to dealing with the parents of my future kids' peers.</blockquote>


I had no idea that your kids were adopted. Anyway, I have heard the comments from a few parents last year during my son's all blond head Santa Ana Little League season regarding wanting their kids to be able to "look like" other kids in their class. One couple we know actually transferred their child to another teacher so that this would be the case. I find myself being rather ambivalent about the whole thing. I just don't really think kids care, like McD said, it's the parents who care. My son is currently a part of a Kindergarten class that includes him, the only blond head in the class (even though I am 1/2 Hispanic), one Asian/Mexican girl and one African American/Caucasian girl and 22 Hispanic kids. There will come a point where nobody actually really knows their ethnicity, this has already happened for me (at least 1/2 of me), I say that day cannot come too soon.
 
[quote author="tmare" date=1258717214][quote author="Sunshine" date=1258716519][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1258715300]I don't think our family fits in anywhere. My husband and I our Caucasian but we have Panamanian and Mexican kids. Surprisingly, the kids at school have never questioned my kids about the race differences in our family. But boy do the parents. <strong>Adults are terribly noisy. It saddens me that I have to ask other parents not to integrate my kids about being adopted</strong>.</blockquote>


So friggin' rude. I'm not looking forward to dealing with the parents of my future kids' peers.</blockquote>


I had no idea that your kids were adopted. Anyway, I have heard the comments from a few parents last year during my son's all blond head Santa Ana Little League season regarding wanting their kids to be able to "look like" other kids in their class. One couple we know actually transferred their child to another teacher so that this would be the case. I find myself being rather ambivalent about the whole thing. I just don't really think kids care, like McD said, it's the parents who care. My son is currently a part of a Kindergarten class that includes him, the only blond head in the class (even though I am 1/2 Hispanic), one Asian/Mexican girl and one African American/Caucasian girl and 22 Hispanic kids. There will come a point where nobody actually really knows their ethnicity, this has already happened for me (at least 1/2 of me), I say that day cannot come too soon.</blockquote>


How did you jump thread? You gotta teach me!
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1258718213][quote author="tmare" date=1258717214][quote author="Sunshine" date=1258716519][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1258715300]I don't think our family fits in anywhere. My husband and I our Caucasian but we have Panamanian and Mexican kids. Surprisingly, the kids at school have never questioned my kids about the race differences in our family. But boy do the parents. <strong>Adults are terribly noisy. It saddens me that I have to ask other parents not to integrate my kids about being adopted</strong>.</blockquote>


So friggin' rude. I'm not looking forward to dealing with the parents of my future kids' peers.</blockquote>


I had no idea that your kids were adopted. Anyway, I have heard the comments from a few parents last year during my son's all blond head Santa Ana Little League season regarding wanting their kids to be able to "look like" other kids in their class. One couple we know actually transferred their child to another teacher so that this would be the case. I find myself being rather ambivalent about the whole thing. I just don't really think kids care, like McD said, it's the parents who care. My son is currently a part of a Kindergarten class that includes him, the only blond head in the class (even though I am 1/2 Hispanic), one Asian/Mexican girl and one African American/Caucasian girl and 22 Hispanic kids. There will come a point where nobody actually really knows their ethnicity, this has already happened for me (at least 1/2 of me), I say that day cannot come too soon.</blockquote>


How did you jump thread? You gotta teach me!</blockquote>


I have no idea, I think I was writing in this thread and I went to edit and mistakenly thought I was in the other thread because it should have been there (and so was McD's post). I think there was some sort of moderator action going on, but anyway it's probably just me and my glass of champagne, so please ignore my craziness!
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258615073]

Prices in Coto are down a minimium of 30% and much more for some homes.

The only explanation I have for Irvine is that the FCBs and other cash buyers want to live in Irvine because of the schools and a feeling of community. I did not think the FCBs were any more numerous than previous years or would have any more effect than previously, but it appears I was wrong. I still think that just as in previous So Cal real estate down turns, the FCBs are going to get their clocks cleaned along with anyone else buying now who thinks that the bottom is in and is using that idea for a reason to buy. This is not the first time FCBs have bought supposedly depressed So Cal real estate and it did not turn out well for them last time. Check out what happened to the Japanese who bought LA real estate in the 90's, (or was it the 80's)?. It kinda cracks me up that folks think this is all somehow new. What do you think?</blockquote>


Well, if you're a full cash buyer, does it really matter if prices drop 5 - 15% more? It's like buying Apple stock at $200 instead of $170. If you sell at $220 down the road, did you get your "clock cleaned"? Also, you just said that prices may not drop much more in nominal terms anyway. I think that's something the permabears aren't factoring into their forecasts: prices are way down in real terms and if prices stay flat and inflation takes hold, then by all standard measures, housing prices may look like they are holding up.
 
[quote author="tmare" date=1258717214][quote author="Sunshine" date=1258716519][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1258715300]I don't think our family fits in anywhere. My husband and I our Caucasian but we have Panamanian and Mexican kids. Surprisingly, the kids at school have never questioned my kids about the race differences in our family. But boy do the parents. <strong>Adults are terribly noisy. It saddens me that I have to ask other parents not to integrate my kids about being adopted</strong>.</blockquote>


So friggin' rude. I'm not looking forward to dealing with the parents of my future kids' peers.</blockquote>


I had no idea that your kids were adopted. Anyway, I have heard the comments from a few parents last year during my son's all blond head Santa Ana Little League season regarding wanting their kids to be able to "look like" other kids in their class. One couple we know actually transferred their child to another teacher so that this would be the case. I find myself being rather ambivalent about the whole thing. I just don't really think kids care, like McD said, it's the parents who care. My son is currently a part of a Kindergarten class that includes him, the only blond head in the class (even though I am 1/2 Hispanic), one Asian/Mexican girl and one African American/Caucasian girl and 22 Hispanic kids. There will come a point where nobody actually really knows their ethnicity, this has already happened for me (at least 1/2 of me), I say that day cannot come too soon.</blockquote>
My kids are blond haired, blue eyed, 1/4 Mexicans. I just asked my wife who works in our youngest daughter's class and she has no idea what the ethnic background makeup of the class is. I asked my youngest and she said that her friend is from Colorado.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258678150][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258675021]

Most, if not all, markets in SoCal are either recovering or are flat. More expensive areas like Irvine bottomed first, but pretty much all have bottomed. Clicking around, I couldn't find one that was still falling.</blockquote>
Wait... I thought you previously said the least expensive areas like the IE bottomed first.</blockquote>


The IE started to fall first, and continued to fall further before recovering (in fact, some areas of the IE (not Riverside) are at the bottom currently-flat, that is). Irvine fell less and recovered sooner. If I said what you said I said I was mistaken.
 
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