Current forecast for Irvine bottom?

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[quote author="graphrix" date=1258533490][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258533079]Hey guys... can you stop proving my FCB Theory? All this high school registration data is going to give graphrix fits and he won't have anything to bust my chops about anymore.</blockquote>


Blah, that is easy... the FCBers were always there, just that their kids were not in high school yet. Go look at the Asian student population in the elementary schools from 10 years ago. I bet I'm right... and I'm not even gonna look it up. :-P</blockquote>


You are right. When I lived here about 5-6 years ago and my kids were going to go to Bonita Canyon, I remember the number of asians in Bonita Canyon was 45%.
 
Sorry for hi-jacking this thread into a Caucasion/Asian FCB discussion. Let's get back on track to "Current forecast for Irvine bottom" I have to say that Irvine Renter's forecasted chart probably would of come to pass if the government did not intervene. Irvine Renter, with current economic conditions you've seen so far, do you have a new and adjusted projected forecast chart for Irvine housing from 2010 - 2014? I believe your old chart showed the Irvine median home price of $419,500 sometime in late 2011/2012. Do you still believe that we will see a $419,500 median home price at the bottom in Irvine and if so when?



We would all love to see a new adjusted forecast chart for Irvine housing. I myself am not sure why Irvine homes prices have only dropped 10% since the 2006 peak. Is it because of the Premium paying Asians or Bernanke? Let's discuss!
 
I'm pretty sure IR did an updated forecast for the bottom on the blog within the last two months. I did a quick search but couldn't find it. However, it is there. You should try searching for it.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258537225]I believe your old chart showed the Irvine median home price of $419,500 sometime in late 2011/2012. Do you still believe that we will see a $419,500 median home price at the borrom in Irvine and when?</blockquote>


Panda, I thought the numbers were a little different. In his April 27th interview with Erika Chavez, <a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/04/27/when-will-irvine-home-prices-hit-bottom/">found here,</a> he said:



"Back in early 2007, I predicted the median home price in Irvine would bottom around $425,000 in 2011. Despite the unprecedented manipulation of the markets being attempted by the Federal Reserve and our Federal Government, I now believe the median will drop even further, and it will likely take longer to bottom. Government policies are simply delaying the inevitable. I now believe the Irvine median home sales price will bottom near $375,000, perhaps in 2012."



To me, since that hypothetical $375k is within the conforming loan limit discussed in yesterday's blog post - that would incent the lower-income wage earner to wait. Maybe monthly payments have bottomed, but what you get for your money hasn't...? Or not. I will be interested to read a reply. (Edit: Maybe like Graph said above - he updated his predictions a couple months ago? I didn't know.)
 
Panda, I found these posts.

<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/orangetip-el-camino-real-irvine/">Bottom or bear Rally?</a>



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/1-blackswan-woodbridge-irvine/">Inflation Spike</a>



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/springview-northwood-irvine/">Bid Ask Spreads</a>



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/8-blue-ridge-rd-irvine-ca-92620-northwood/">Rent or Own</a>



This last one give 3 scenarios for Irvine's futre median. Oct 9, 2009
 
I dunno. If I was looking for a bottom, I would not want to have my heart set on Irvine. Irvine is turning out to be the anomaly to the norm.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258537225]Sorry for hi-jacking this thread into a Caucasion/Asian FCB discussion. Let's get back on track to "Current forecast for Irvine bottom" I have to say that Irvine Renter's forecasted chart probably would of come to pass if the government did not intervene. Irvine Renter, with current economic conditions you've seen so far, do you have a new and adjusted projected forecast chart for Irvine housing from 2010 - 2014? I believe your old chart showed the Irvine median home price of $419,500 sometime in late 2011/2012. Do you still believe that we will see a $419,500 median home price at the bottom in Irvine and if so when?



We would all love to see a new adjusted forecast chart for Irvine housing. I myself am not sure why Irvine homes prices have only dropped 10% since the 2006 peak. Is it because of the Premium paying Asians or Bernanke? Let's discuss!</blockquote>




Yes, it is because of the Asians (mostly Chinese). Koreans do not have the buying power as the Taiwanese Chinese do. The current population of home buyers in Irvine are 90% Chinese. Just ask any real estate agent that does business in Irvine.
 
[quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1258540917]Panda, I found these posts.

<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/orangetip-el-camino-real-irvine/">Bottom or bear Rally?</a>



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/1-blackswan-woodbridge-irvine/">Inflation Spike</a>



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/springview-northwood-irvine/">Bid Ask Spreads</a>



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/8-blue-ridge-rd-irvine-ca-92620-northwood/">Rent or Own</a>



This last one give 3 scenarios for Irvine's futre median. Oct 9, 2009</blockquote>


if unemployment reaches 15% and mortages rates at 7%+, and we see a ice scenario from IR's graph... I will then be fully convinced that Irvine home prices are untouchable.. I will go into my little cave and cry too!
 
[quote author="Still Too High" date=1258546141][quote author="PANDA" date=1258537225]Sorry for hi-jacking this thread into a Caucasion/Asian FCB discussion. Let's get back on track to "Current forecast for Irvine bottom" I have to say that Irvine Renter's forecasted chart probably would of come to pass if the government did not intervene. Irvine Renter, with current economic conditions you've seen so far, do you have a new and adjusted projected forecast chart for Irvine housing from 2010 - 2014? I believe your old chart showed the Irvine median home price of $419,500 sometime in late 2011/2012. Do you still believe that we will see a $419,500 median home price at the bottom in Irvine and if so when?



We would all love to see a new adjusted forecast chart for Irvine housing. I myself am not sure why Irvine homes prices have only dropped 10% since the 2006 peak. Is it because of the Premium paying Asians or Bernanke? Let's discuss!</blockquote>




Yes, it is because of the Asians (mostly Chinese). Koreans do not have the buying power as the Taiwanese Chinese do. The current population of home buyers in Irvine are 90% Chinese. Just ask any real estate agent that does business in Irvine.</blockquote>
 
"I can potentially see this ratio support getting really ugly where Asians will make up 65-70% of Uni High and 25-30% Caucasions in the next 5 - 10 years. These are demographic changes i have never seen in my life."



i have seen this play out in both cities my parents have lived in... first in monterey park in the early 80's... then when we moved to diamond bar in the mid 90's... i believe it's called "white flight".
 
[quote author="villagepeople" date=1258549515]"I can potentially see this ratio support getting really ugly where Asians will make up 65-70% of Uni High and 25-30% Caucasions in the next 5 - 10 years. These are demographic changes i have never seen in my life."



i have seen this play out in both cities my parents have lived in... first in monterey park in the early 80's... then when we moved to diamond bar in the mid 90's... i believe it's called "white flight".</blockquote>


Isn't that what they said about compton and inglewood in the early 60's?
 
seems like every post gets turned into a discussion about asians in irvine...



hopefully obama can buy us all a beer so we can forget the racial divide.
 
[quote author="sad.machine" date=1258552076]seems like every post gets turned into a discussion about asians in irvine...



hopefully obama can buy us all a beer so we can forget the racial divide.</blockquote>


ever take a peek at the costa mesa threads? they often morph into discussions about hispanics.
 
The reality is that Irvine real estate market is strong due to the lack of inventory. When inventory goes from over 1,300 listed for sale or 10 months of inventory to less than 500 or about 2.5 months of inventory, you will get very sticky prices. It's not just asian buyers that are causing Irvine prices not to fall, it's the lack of inventory. I would even argue there are less buyers out there looking for a home today than there were back in 05/06 but the lack of inventory is creating a buyer's frenzy. Any decently priced home in Irvine (at or slightly above comps) will fly into escrow within 7-10 days.
 
Try to buy any decent quality, turnkey rental SFR property around Southern CA today is like pulling teeth. I think I've submitted 11 bids so far this month and was out-bid on each one with above-asking offers. Fixer-uppers and condos are less competitive, but watch out for insolvent HOA's hitting back with large special assessments. YOU, may be picking up the tab for everyone else who didn't pay their HOA fee's.
 
[quote author="momopi" date=1258555363]Try to buy any decent quality, turnkey rental SFR property around Southern CA today is like pulling teeth. I think I've submitted 11 bids so far this month and was out-bid on each one with above-asking offers. Fixer-uppers and condos are less competitive, but watch out for insolvent HOA's hitting back with large special assessments. YOU, may be picking up the tab for everyone else who didn't pay their HOA fee's.</blockquote>
Not surprised, any decently priced properties in Orange County get multiple offers and many end up selling at or over list price. Again, the property is the lack of non-short sale inventory.
 
[quote author="sad.machine" date=1258512007]I know initially it was at 2011



Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?



Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease? What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?</blockquote>


Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past <strong>a</strong> bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip. The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.



Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1258587041][quote author="sad.machine" date=1258512007]I know initially it was at 2011



Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?



Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease? What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?</blockquote>


Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past <strong>a</strong> bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip. The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.



Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.</blockquote>


You are wrong again. Check the numbers.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258587412][quote author="Geotpf" date=1258587041][quote author="sad.machine" date=1258512007]I know initially it was at 2011



Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?



Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease? What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?</blockquote>


Irvine has past the bottom, or at least has past <strong>a</strong> bottom, if you believe there will be a double dip. The bottom was in March at $320/sq ft for houses (currently $347/sq ft) and $306/sq ft for condos (currently $312/sq ft), according to Redfin.



Irvine is not unique here; most SoCal markets are similar.</blockquote>


You are wrong again. Check the numbers.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine">Source (the graph in the middle-click on HOUSE or CONDO to see the two numbers, for $/sq ft, sold)</a>
 
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