Countdown for in-person schooling

[Bullsback]

@qwerty: You can't compare a classroom to a grocery store.

Why not? Grocery stores have more people come in than a classroom would have. Adults that are more infectious than elementary aged kids who do not transmit covid at the same levels.

Elementary schools are probably different than middle and high schools in that respect as the older kids seem to transit covid at the same rate as adults. With the older kids though it?s easier for them to wear masks (if mandated). The nba games being announced in the bubble have plexiglass between the announcers. Pretty interesting setup actually.

For elementary schools they could have just cut out all of the bullshit and do two sessions of three hours each. Each kid sits at their desk that has plexiglass around the desks, have the teacher stand behind the plexiglass. Teach three hours and send the kids home. No recess, no lunch. Have the kids eat at home.

You could do a similar set up for middle and high schools. In theory the middle and high schools can be more regimented as the kids are older.

The one fundamental question at hand is, is it better to get exposed to a lot of people for very short amounts of time or the same set of people for extended amounts of time.  I don't know the answer to that - but I think the reason why infections are high in places like restaurants is you are indoor and for more extended period of times and thus it is more likely if someone comes in contact with the virus, they are in contact with it for a bit more extended of a time and therefor more likely to cause infection. 

So it is kind of one of those, in a grocery store you see way more people but have a likely lower probability of infection rate.  In a school - way less people (assuming schools keep classes small and keep contact within the classes) - but if one person is infected, infection rate much higher. 

The reality is - they should have those rapid testing (even if they aren't highly effective) within schools, etc, as a way to tightly monitor everything so that when you have outbreaks - you keep them small and well contained.  I.e., lock them down at the source. 

 

[Bullsback]

There are many colleges closings and outbreaks throughout the US. (with the safety precautions) Also, students are getting covid in elementary schools.

I think it is a shame for people (elected officials, school boards, admins) giving the false narrative that it is safe. Sometimes you have to let them learn from their mistakes to learn.

For the elementary school students - it is likely extremely safe. For the teachers, obviously a bit more risk. But you also can't ignore the impact LT at home school with more limited peer interactions, etc, has on children.  But everyone obviously has different degrees of risk tolerance, etc. 

I still don't get why California hasn't went to my idea which kind of aligns with Qwerty's, except for I'd be doing the teaching outdoors (outdoor with spacing and masks - very minimal risk for teachers & students). Call it a win win and for the 1st time ever, California students will get equivalent of snowdays when it is either way too hot or raining (which we all know is pretty rare anyway) and on those days they'll just pivot to the existing virtual platform. 

 

[eyephone]

There are many colleges closings and outbreaks throughout the US. (with the safety precautions) Also, students are getting covid in elementary schools.

I think it is a shame for people (elected officials, school boards, admins) giving the false narrative that it is safe. Sometimes you have to let them learn from their mistakes to learn.

For the elementary school students - it is likely extremely safe. For the teachers, obviously a bit more risk. But you also can't ignore the impact LT at home school with more limited peer interactions, etc, has on children.  But everyone obviously has different degrees of risk tolerance, etc. 

I still don't get why California hasn't went to my idea which kind of aligns with Qwerty's, except for I'd be doing the teaching outdoors (outdoor with spacing and masks - very minimal risk for teachers & students). Call it a win win and for the 1st time ever, California students will get equivalent of snowdays when it is either way too hot or raining (which we all know is pretty rare anyway) and on those days they'll just pivot to the existing virtual platform.

Extremely safe?

 

[Bullsback]

There are many colleges closings and outbreaks throughout the US. (with the safety precautions) Also, students are getting covid in elementary schools.

I think it is a shame for people (elected officials, school boards, admins) giving the false narrative that it is safe. Sometimes you have to let them learn from their mistakes to learn.

For the elementary school students - it is likely extremely safe. For the teachers, obviously a bit more risk. But you also can't ignore the impact LT at home school with more limited peer interactions, etc, has on children.  But everyone obviously has different degrees of risk tolerance, etc. 

I still don't get why California hasn't went to my idea which kind of aligns with Qwerty's, except for I'd be doing the teaching outdoors (outdoor with spacing and masks - very minimal risk for teachers & students). Call it a win win and for the 1st time ever, California students will get equivalent of snowdays when it is either way too hot or raining (which we all know is pretty rare anyway) and on those days they'll just pivot to the existing virtual platform.

Extremely safe?

Yes - I do believe the data would back up the fact that it is extremely safe for elementary school aged children.  Note, I am ignoring the teachers who are impacted and other secondary impacts (i.e., child infecting their parents, grandparents and others).  But for the elementary age children who get infected, stats seem to back up that they will get better without lasting side effects.  Doesn't mean there won't be issues, but demographically they seem to be the least impacted (and I am purely pointing out Elementary age students). 

 

[morekaos]

...a FACT that should be celebrated, not buried.

 

[eyephone]

@bullsh7: The data? Looks like the schools that did open early had many problems. The evidence speaks for its self.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

@bullsback: What studies show that elementary age kids that get Covid will have no long-term effects? That's impossible to tell right now because we are not time travelers.

Edit: I tried googling for "no long term effects of covid on children" and found these instead:
https://www.winknews.com/2020/07/17...-about-long-term-effects-of-covid-19-on-kids/
https://khn.org/news/why-doctors-ke...recover-from-mysterious-covid-linked-illness/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/children-long-covid-symptoms-intl-gbr/index.html
https://cbs12.com/news/local/doctors-concerned-that-covid-19-may-be-harming-lungs-of-children

 

[qwerty]

@qwerty: You can't compare a classroom to a grocery store.

Why not? Grocery stores have more people come in than a classroom would have. Adults that are more infectious than elementary aged kids who do not transmit covid at the same levels.

Elementary schools are probably different than middle and high schools in that respect as the older kids seem to transit covid at the same rate as adults. With the older kids though it?s easier for them to wear masks (if mandated). The nba games being announced in the bubble have plexiglass between the announcers. Pretty interesting setup actually.

For elementary schools they could have just cut out all of the bullshit and do two sessions of three hours each. Each kid sits at their desk that has plexiglass around the desks, have the teacher stand behind the plexiglass. Teach three hours and send the kids home. No recess, no lunch. Have the kids eat at home.

You could do a similar set up for middle and high schools. In theory the middle and high schools can be more regimented as the kids are older.

The one fundamental question at hand is, is it better to get exposed to a lot of people for very short amounts of time or the same set of people for extended amounts of time.  I don't know the answer to that - but I think the reason why infections are high in places like restaurants is you are indoor and for more extended period of times and thus it is more likely if someone comes in contact with the virus, they are in contact with it for a bit more extended of a time and therefor more likely to cause infection. 

So it is kind of one of those, in a grocery store you see way more people but have a likely lower probability of infection rate.  In a school - way less people (assuming schools keep classes small and keep contact within the classes) - but if one person is infected, infection rate much higher. 

The reality is - they should have those rapid testing (even if they aren't highly effective) within schools, etc, as a way to tightly monitor everything so that when you have outbreaks - you keep them small and well contained.  I.e., lock them down at the source. 

I don?t think being in doors is necessary the main problem. Using a grocery store as an example that gets a lot of people volume, if the air was contaminated and dispersed throughout the existing workers would probably get sick and there haven?t been any clusters of employees at grocery stores getting sick. Which is why I don?t think it?s airborne. I also agree that contaminated surfaces are not big transmission points because the grocery store clerked would be getting sick in droves.

So everything seems to point to infections happening from close, face to face encounters. Which is what happens at restaurants. You sit in close proximity and generally face to face with people in your party. And a lot of times there is an outside (non-household member) so it could be that person spreading to to the core household group. Also, while contaminated surfaces don?t seem to cause many cases I think restaurants and bars a little different.

Waiters are taking back dishes and touching fresh/wet saliva and they may or not follow strict protocols where they switch gloves after picking up a set of dishes. A server may come pick up your plate and silverware and take it back and then not switch gloves and give another customer their meal, etc.

With bars it?s probably even worse. The bartenders are picking up drinks and serving new ones. I haven?t been to bar since the pandemic started but I?m guessing in a lot of those bars they don?t have a system (perhaps they do) where there is a designated person to pick up drinks that are done and the bartender just serves/touches clean glasses/bottles.

In an elementary school environment. I think you can set it up in two three hour blocks with as mentioned earlier and minimize the interactions amongst the kids themselves as well as between the teachers and elementary students.

So I would agree with bullsback that elementary in person teaching can be done very safely. I would even say you can just do one three hour session with all 20-30 kids present and just knock out one three hour session and that would give the school personnel and teachers more time within their 8 hour work window to prepare for the next day, grade homework and disinfect the rooms. Especially if the desks have been set up with plexiglass barriers, so each student is in their own little plexiglass pod/desk. This could have been but as usual government is too stupid. They just spent $3 trillion dollars so money should not have been an issue.

 

[eyephone]

I think the problem is that bull does not read the news about the school reopening or thinks the cases are fake.

@bullsback: What studies show that elementary age kids that get Covid will have no long-term effects? That's impossible to tell right now because we are not time travelers.

Edit: I tried googling for "no long term effects of covid on children" and found these instead:
https://www.winknews.com/2020/07/17...-about-long-term-effects-of-covid-19-on-kids/
https://khn.org/news/why-doctors-ke...recover-from-mysterious-covid-linked-illness/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/children-long-covid-symptoms-intl-gbr/index.html
https://cbs12.com/news/local/doctors-concerned-that-covid-19-may-be-harming-lungs-of-children

 

[Bullsback]

@bullsh7: The data? Looks like the schools that did open early had many problems. The evidence speaks for its self.

You are talking about some people being infected. I am talking about health. If everyone in our population responded to the virus like an elementary aged children, we would not have shut down the country and we would not be talking about COVID (at least not to this extent).

You need to re-read very clearly what I stated.  I am speaking solely to the bubble that is the elementary age child. I'm not speaking towards impact of that child getting other people sick or creating new outbreaks for others, what I am stating is, yes, elementary aged children will get infected (some will very much so) but they will also get better (at a rate far more similar to a cold / flu). 

For sake of this analysis - I am completely ignoring them infecting teachers, parents, grandparents and the broader community.  I will also caveat all data on children is more limited and in particular data through community spread at schools is also very limited.  We should know more in the next couple weeks (good and / or bad) but of course everything we know about the virus is really just short-term data.

I also will wait and see how data emerges amongst schools.  I'm a huge believer in having schools open, but schools need to put a ton of protections in place, many of which will be completely unable to do so.  Sending people back to school as if it were pre-covid...doesn't make sense...but doing it in a smart way...well oaky, that is potentially doable. 

 

[Bullsback]

I think the problem is that bull does not read the news about the school reopening or thinks the cases are fake.

@bullsback: What studies show that elementary age kids that get Covid will have no long-term effects? That's impossible to tell right now because we are not time travelers.

Edit: I tried googling for "no long term effects of covid on children" and found these instead:
https://www.winknews.com/2020/07/17...-about-long-term-effects-of-covid-19-on-kids/
https://khn.org/news/why-doctors-ke...recover-from-mysterious-covid-linked-illness/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/children-long-covid-symptoms-intl-gbr/index.html
https://cbs12.com/news/local/doctors-concerned-that-covid-19-may-be-harming-lungs-of-children

You clearly don't read my posts - because I touted the efficacy of masks throughout this forum and the importance of shutdowns. So just stop it.  I have also statistically pointed out that this is far worse than the flu in many multiples of my posts on this site.  I happen to think eyephone is being completely sensational though with how he talks about elementary age children.  Low risk is still not no-risk so like I said originally, parents have to make their choices and I 100% respect those choices.

I would never tell one parent their decision (whether in-person or virtual) is wrong, because they have to make the choice they feel is right. 

 

[Bullsback]

@bullsback: What studies show that elementary age kids that get Covid will have no long-term effects? That's impossible to tell right now because we are not time travelers.

Edit: I tried googling for "no long term effects of covid on children" and found these instead:
https://www.winknews.com/2020/07/17...-about-long-term-effects-of-covid-19-on-kids/
https://khn.org/news/why-doctors-ke...recover-from-mysterious-covid-linked-illness/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/children-long-covid-symptoms-intl-gbr/index.html
https://cbs12.com/news/local/doctors-concerned-that-covid-19-may-be-harming-lungs-of-children

I think in my follow-up post I specifically mentioned, the one unknown is LT effects. No one knows what the LT effects are with COVID because all we have is short-term data. We have known about the damage it does to some in the organs, most notably the heart and need to understand what that means. Is it temporary, treatable, or a LT permanent issue. All of those are still very unknown and to be frank will probably remain unknown for a number of years. 

 

[bones]

I'm a huge believer in having schools open, but schools need to put a ton of protections in place, many of which will be completely unable to do so.

I think this is really the key.  Can schools do it safely?  Will teachers abide by the rules?  What happens if you get a "COVID is the flu" teacher?  My kids have been part of sports and camps that have come back with guidelines in place.  Some coaches just won't do them or if they do, they cherry pick which rules they want to follow, or only do them when someone is there checking up on them. 

 

[eyephone]

More And More Early-Opening U.S. School Districts Are Being Disrupted By Positive Cases Of The Coronavirus
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattpe...ttling-cases-of-the-coronavirus/#f910fcc79baf

Looks like it is a combination of students and teachers that got covid. (No finger pointing just saying)



Israeli Data Show School Openings Were a Disaster That Wiped Out Lockdown Gains
https://www.thedailybeast.com/israe...were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains

 

[bones]

The reality is - they should have those rapid testing (even if they aren't highly effective) within schools, etc, as a way to tightly monitor everything so that when you have outbreaks - you keep them small and well contained.  I.e., lock them down at the source. 

Yup - there are some private schools in the OC that have implemented testing protocols.

 

[Bullsback]

More And More Early-Opening U.S. School Districts Are Being Disrupted By Positive Cases Of The Coronavirus
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattpe...ttling-cases-of-the-coronavirus/#f910fcc79baf

Looks like it is a combination of students and teachers that got covid. (No finger pointing just saying)



Israeli Data Show School Openings Were a Disaster That Wiped Out Lockdown Gains
https://www.thedailybeast.com/israe...were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains

THis is all true - this is the bigger question - whether it is safe for the elementary school kids is not an isolated conversation (I was just correcting for what I thought were you fallacies focused on the individual child).

The bigger piece is the broader risk of opening things up on the bigger population (teachers and others getting infected because more kids have COVID). There is zero doubt kids going to schools is going to create more cases amongst kids - those kids will spread it to others who will likely get hit harder than the kids. 

The unfortunate part of all of this is with a swift federal and state response across the board - we wouldn't be having these conversations and instead would be dealing with small isolated breakouts in different parts of the country which could quickly be contained while we await a potential vaccine. 

 

[Irvinecommuter]

More And More Early-Opening U.S. School Districts Are Being Disrupted By Positive Cases Of The Coronavirus
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattpe...ttling-cases-of-the-coronavirus/#f910fcc79baf

Looks like it is a combination of students and teachers that got covid. (No finger pointing just saying)



Israeli Data Show School Openings Were a Disaster That Wiped Out Lockdown Gains
https://www.thedailybeast.com/israe...were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains

THis is all true - this is the bigger question - whether it is safe for the elementary school kids is not an isolated conversation (I was just correcting for what I thought were you fallacies focused on the individual child).

The bigger piece is the broader risk of opening things up on the bigger population (teachers and others getting infected because more kids have COVID). There is zero doubt kids going to schools is going to create more cases amongst kids - those kids will spread it to others who will likely get hit harder than the kids. 

The unfortunate part of all of this is with a swift federal and state response across the board - we wouldn't be having these conversations and instead would be dealing with small isolated breakouts in different parts of the country which could quickly be contained while we await a potential vaccine.

Yup...the latter paragraph is lost on people.  We could have contained it but for a pollyana Trump who cannot handle any type of criticism or bad news.   

The whole point of the shutdown was to buy more time and create new protocols to slow the disease while we find a vaccine.  Problem is that GOP and Trump kept looking for miracle cures and hopes that the disease will go away. 

South Korea are criminally charging one of the largest churches because it refused to stop gatherings and allowed large gatherings to take place.  That's is not infringement of one's rights...that is just prudent governance. 

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Just to add to this discussion is the fact that we still do not understand COVID-19 and the long-term effects.  Studies are developing and we are learning new things about this virus every day/week.

For example:

In a study of 192 children ages 0-22, 49 children tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, and an additional 18 children had late-onset, COVID-19-related illness. The infected children were shown to have a significantly higher level of virus in their airways than hospitalized adults in ICUs for COVID-19 treatment, according to Harvard-affiliated Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and Mass General Hospital for Children (MGHfC).

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/st...ildren-as-the-silent-spreaders-of-sars-cov-2/

She is one of a number of children who appear still to be suffering symptoms related to the coronavirus months after first falling ill, according to accounts from their parents.

While awareness is gradually growing with regards to "long Covid" in adults, much remains unknown about any potential long-term impact in children.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/children-long-covid-symptoms-intl-gbr/index.html

And all of this rushing is because GOP/Trump are beholden to the voodoo economics and refusing to believe that the government should help people, even in a global pandemic.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

There are many colleges closings and outbreaks throughout the US. (with the safety precautions) Also, students are getting covid in elementary schools.

I think it is a shame for people (elected officials, school boards, admins) giving the false narrative that it is safe. Sometimes you have to let them learn from their mistakes to learn.

For the elementary school students - it is likely extremely safe. For the teachers, obviously a bit more risk. But you also can't ignore the impact LT at home school with more limited peer interactions, etc, has on children.  But everyone obviously has different degrees of risk tolerance, etc. 

I still don't get why California hasn't went to my idea which kind of aligns with Qwerty's, except for I'd be doing the teaching outdoors (outdoor with spacing and masks - very minimal risk for teachers & students). Call it a win win and for the 1st time ever, California students will get equivalent of snowdays when it is either way too hot or raining (which we all know is pretty rare anyway) and on those days they'll just pivot to the existing virtual platform.

It doesn't work that way...teachers have to plan and do things.  You can't just pivot from one thing to another. 

No offense but these are ideas that people who have never tried to teach small children come up with.

 

[qwerty]

No offense taken. 

But any practical idea is better than remote learning. This is all a temporary measure. And there are many better temporary measures.