coronavirus
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I've been in on enough conference calls by now and the only consensus is that it's very difficult to predict the magnitude accurately. Simply too many variables and moving parts.
But the direction is clear.
We are heading for disaster because healthcare resources can be accurate projected.
And we are at near full capacity. You play it out we will lose healthcare workers. We have as sub optimal PPE protection for healthcare workers, nurses in NY hospitals are using trash bags :'(
Being in these situations is psychological traumatic for clinicians. As the situation gets more dire/death count rises, more will call it quits or simply take time off even if they are physically healthy enough to work.
One thing we can for sure take away from China/Korean/Italy is what happens when healthcare collapse (Italy).
People are dying alone in NY hospital hallways today.
And when the hospital is full, it won't matter why people got there. Whether it's a car accident or had a stroke or a heart attack, They'll die in the hallway or in the streets.
Will these people be counted as coronavirus death?
White House officials push back on calls to activate DPA for critical medical supplies
As state leaders across the country call on the federal government to activate the Defense Production Act, White House officials continue to push back ? instead insisting that companies have stepped up to provide the dire medical equipment needed to tackle the coronavirus pandemic across the U.S.
On Tuesday, the Federal Emergency Management Agency said it ultimately did not need to use the DPA to secure medical equipment, walking back on an announcement made by the head of the agency earlier that morning. But state authorities and health leaders have called for more federal intervention as they struggle to get their hands on ventilators and personal protective equipment necessary to brace for overwhelmed hospitals amid the intensifying outbreak.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/26/dpa-white-house-coronavirus-medical-supplies-150583
#actnowbeforeitistoolate
Looks like Happy was right after all..OK, continue your panic...
LA County sheriff says he has authority to shut down gun stores
[url]https://www.dailybreeze.com/2020/03/25/la-county-sheriff-says-he-has-authority-to-shut-down-gun-stores/amp/[/url]
So what could be a possible solution? We can point out millions things that are wrong in this country, but we need to have a better solution to change. You said we should learn from Taiwan and S. Korea. What should we learn from them to battle this virus more efficiently?
The easy answer is we should have learned from S Korea and Taiwan to test, suppress and contain early when it was still possible. We are the richest and most advanced country in the history of the world. We can afford to mass test everyone months ago, Just like we could afford this this 2 trillion bailout.
If you are asking what we should do from here on out, I?m afraid the answers will be controversial and convoluted. We are in a lose lose situation. The trade-off between economic vitality and human life is stark.
I would do an emergency 4 months of UBI stimulus like Canada, institute a 3 months shelter in place (because I don?t believe we are capable of a lockdown China style)
I know this will probably trigger a lot of conservatives, the individual freedom loving crowd, and the socialism bad crowd. But without it, we are faced with whether to sacrifice grandparents for economic vitality. If we can break out of the mold of thinking economic value and human value are the same thing, we can do both. We are still the world?s reserve currency and at such low cost to borrow, we can afford to.
Thanks for your answer. While I do think we should have done more tests months ago, I also don?t think it?s that simple. For example, even before there ever was this coronavirus, it would take at least days or weeks to see a doctor here while it could be so much faster in other countries. The only way I really can get to a doctor right away is by calling 911 and go to ER. It?s just a different system we got setup here. I don?t like it, but that?s how it runs.
Also some Asians countries already have experienced coronavirus with SARS and MERS. So as soon as it broke out again, they quickly moved. That?s really impressive, but we just haven?t experienced such diseases directly as much so taking more time is understandable. I agree with your argument that we should have moved quickly also, but then again this whole medical system in the US is not the best. The size and the population of this country is also different that the way how it?s setup is almost the only way at the same time unless we get to have so many more doctors and hospital offices available.
For 4 months UBI suggestion you made, isn?t that what we?re getting from this coronavirus relief? You can argue not everyone is qualified, but if you?re not qualified, you probably don?t need extra help since you already make/have enough anyways.
I like to talk about what we can do from here since what?s happened already happened. We can learn and not make the same mistake next time, but we gotta move forward from now on instead of regretting about the past. While some people think Trump said he would open our country back again soon, that?s not what he really said. Along with Dr. Fauci, Trump said they can flexibly start opening better states/areas, not the whole country. Hotspots (borrowing Trump?s words) like NY, he said he wouldn?t open there yet. Now I?m not defending Trump. But I think opening back some places to normal would not be such a bad idea since the economy has to run again instead of keep closing down for unknown amount of future. I don?t like how he used Easter to gain his political popularity, but that?s none of my business what his intention was. Maybe he really was sincere. I don?t know. The point is we get the relief package from the government and we should start opening back up beginning from safer areas. That?s my opinion, but I know many could have another opinion.
It?s great to discuss like this. I like how you handle things here. You?re very reasonable and argue with manner so I really appreciate your style. Any argument back to me is welcome.
Cornflakes
Active member
that...and may be it is a wave...started in China...hit EU hard...hit east coast...California bracing or beach going for now.
irvinehomeowner said:
I've been in on enough conference calls by now and the only consensus is that it's very difficult to predict the magnitude accurately. Simply too many variables and moving parts.
But the direction is clear.
We are heading for disaster because healthcare resources can be accurate projected.
And we are at near full capacity. You play it out we will lose healthcare workers. We have as sub optimal PPE protection for healthcare workers, nurses in NY hospitals are using trash bags :'(
Being in these situations is psychological traumatic for clinicians. As the situation gets more dire/death count rises, more will call it quits or simply take time off even if they are physically healthy enough to work.
One thing we can for sure take away from China/Korean/Italy is what happens when healthcare collapse (Italy).
People are dying alone in NY hospital hallways today.
And when the hospital is full, it won't matter why people got there. Whether it's a car accident or had a stroke or a heart attack, They'll die in the hallway or in the streets.
Will these people be counted as coronavirus death?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
One other positive note (if you can call it that), is look at the number of deaths compared to other countries.
We know our number of infections will be high and that number is probably way higher because not everyone is tested.
But if the number of deaths (which is more accurate) in relation to our overall population stays low, all our measures are helping.
We know our number of infections will be high and that number is probably way higher because not everyone is tested.
But if the number of deaths (which is more accurate) in relation to our overall population stays low, all our measures are helping.
So based on many opinions here, it seems like Italy failed. Taiwan and S. Korea did much better and recovering now. Who cares about China since they're lying all the time. So we need to learn from what Taiwan and S. Korea did. Does this seem correct to you guys?
I think both Kenkoko and IHO's arguments are valid since we do have huge problems with our health care system even before there was this Covid-19, but at the same time, we can't really compare and call those other countries did better jobs since everything is different here from other countries. Even every state is different in this country alone.
Well on the positive note, I think Trump is getting some help from S. Korea now. Not sure exactly what kind of help though.
I think both Kenkoko and IHO's arguments are valid since we do have huge problems with our health care system even before there was this Covid-19, but at the same time, we can't really compare and call those other countries did better jobs since everything is different here from other countries. Even every state is different in this country alone.
Well on the positive note, I think Trump is getting some help from S. Korea now. Not sure exactly what kind of help though.
eyephone said:
White House officials push back on calls to activate DPA for critical medical supplies
As state leaders across the country call on the federal government to activate the Defense Production Act, White House officials continue to push back ? instead insisting that companies have stepped up to provide the dire medical equipment needed to tackle the coronavirus pandemic across the U.S.
On Tuesday, the Federal Emergency Management Agency said it ultimately did not need to use the DPA to secure medical equipment, walking back on an announcement made by the head of the agency earlier that morning. But state authorities and health leaders have called for more federal intervention as they struggle to get their hands on ventilators and personal protective equipment necessary to brace for overwhelmed hospitals amid the intensifying outbreak.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/26/dpa-white-house-coronavirus-medical-supplies-150583
#actnowbeforeitistoolate
A zoom video conf by NY Weill Cornell Hospital Dr. David Price to friends and family re: covid (he works directly with covid patients and decides who is intubated, etc.):
https://vimeo.com/399733860
https://vimeo.com/399733860
morekaos
Well-known member
Happiness said:
Looks like Happy was right after all..OK, continue your panic...
LA County sheriff says he has authority to shut down gun stores
[url]https://www.dailybreeze.com/2020/03/25/la-county-sheriff-says-he-has-authority-to-shut-down-gun-stores/amp/[/url]
Kenkoko said:
So what could be a possible solution? We can point out millions things that are wrong in this country, but we need to have a better solution to change. You said we should learn from Taiwan and S. Korea. What should we learn from them to battle this virus more efficiently?
Cornflakes
Active member
You know how we let our kids run the show and let them do whatever they want to a degree of freedom that we are confy with? Every now and then comes a point in time where we take charge and demonstrate very decisively and clearly that we are in charge and the only thing goes is what we say goes. These things last for a short period of time to course correct and it does not change the family?s Democratic makeup forever.
We need something like that at federal level. It requires that govt knows more or less what is right thing to do and acts in good faith like parents would with their children.
When I was watching those videos in January coming from China, my heart was hurting for those citizens as how can govt be so ruthless. May be there is some silver lining in that strictness as long as it is done in good faith.
Contact tracing in Asia throws privacy concerns out the door. There is no room for PHI (private health information) provisions at times like this. Basically, playbooks needs to be on hold for time being as these are no ordinary times.
We need something like that at federal level. It requires that govt knows more or less what is right thing to do and acts in good faith like parents would with their children.
When I was watching those videos in January coming from China, my heart was hurting for those citizens as how can govt be so ruthless. May be there is some silver lining in that strictness as long as it is done in good faith.
Contact tracing in Asia throws privacy concerns out the door. There is no room for PHI (private health information) provisions at times like this. Basically, playbooks needs to be on hold for time being as these are no ordinary times.
morekaos
Well-known member
Each of us makes a cost/ benefit analysis each time we walk out the door in the morning, wether you know it or not. Will I get hit by a car? will I slip in the bathtub? will I be poisoned by my lunch today? Soon, very soon, we will collectively make a decision as to how many fatalities are acceptable in order to get back to work...I think that number is sub 10-15000.... we will see where it lands.
Mety said:
The easy answer is we should have learned from S Korea and Taiwan to test, suppress and contain early when it was still possible. We are the richest and most advanced country in the history of the world. We can afford to mass test everyone months ago, Just like we could afford this this 2 trillion bailout.
If you are asking what we should do from here on out, I?m afraid the answers will be controversial and convoluted. We are in a lose lose situation. The trade-off between economic vitality and human life is stark.
I would do an emergency 4 months of UBI stimulus like Canada, institute a 3 months shelter in place (because I don?t believe we are capable of a lockdown China style)
I know this will probably trigger a lot of conservatives, the individual freedom loving crowd, and the socialism bad crowd. But without it, we are faced with whether to sacrifice grandparents for economic vitality. If we can break out of the mold of thinking economic value and human value are the same thing, we can do both. We are still the world?s reserve currency and at such low cost to borrow, we can afford to.
Kenkoko said:
Thanks for your answer. While I do think we should have done more tests months ago, I also don?t think it?s that simple. For example, even before there ever was this coronavirus, it would take at least days or weeks to see a doctor here while it could be so much faster in other countries. The only way I really can get to a doctor right away is by calling 911 and go to ER. It?s just a different system we got setup here. I don?t like it, but that?s how it runs.
Also some Asians countries already have experienced coronavirus with SARS and MERS. So as soon as it broke out again, they quickly moved. That?s really impressive, but we just haven?t experienced such diseases directly as much so taking more time is understandable. I agree with your argument that we should have moved quickly also, but then again this whole medical system in the US is not the best. The size and the population of this country is also different that the way how it?s setup is almost the only way at the same time unless we get to have so many more doctors and hospital offices available.
For 4 months UBI suggestion you made, isn?t that what we?re getting from this coronavirus relief? You can argue not everyone is qualified, but if you?re not qualified, you probably don?t need extra help since you already make/have enough anyways.
I like to talk about what we can do from here since what?s happened already happened. We can learn and not make the same mistake next time, but we gotta move forward from now on instead of regretting about the past. While some people think Trump said he would open our country back again soon, that?s not what he really said. Along with Dr. Fauci, Trump said they can flexibly start opening better states/areas, not the whole country. Hotspots (borrowing Trump?s words) like NY, he said he wouldn?t open there yet. Now I?m not defending Trump. But I think opening back some places to normal would not be such a bad idea since the economy has to run again instead of keep closing down for unknown amount of future. I don?t like how he used Easter to gain his political popularity, but that?s none of my business what his intention was. Maybe he really was sincere. I don?t know. The point is we get the relief package from the government and we should start opening back up beginning from safer areas. That?s my opinion, but I know many could have another opinion.
It?s great to discuss like this. I like how you handle things here. You?re very reasonable and argue with manner so I really appreciate your style. Any argument back to me is welcome.
momopi
Well-known member
Few random thoughts:
* Taiwan, SK, and HK are imposing quarantine of 14 days for arrivals. In TW the police will track your cell phone, in HK they put a monitoring bracelet on you.
* Normally test kits go through lengthy certification process, but due to the urgency many companies are taking a carte blanche in releasing test kits that have not been certified. Some companies are not even licensed to make the test kits. Consequently the test results are not always up to par. See: https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/
* Many people who ran to the local gun store are first time buyers. They have no prior experience, possibly not even with BB guns. The Sheriff's concerns are valid, though that alone is not sufficient justification for shutdown. Shops that fail to impose/maintain "social distancing" is acceptable justification. Look at home depot, they have imposed restrictions on number of customers allowed inside, and those waiting outside are required to keep distance according to tape guides on the ground.
* The NRA, Calguns, various pistol and rifle clubs, etc. needs to step up with new safety instruction videos now, and in-person classes later. The videos need to cover not only safe handling, but also safe storage and conflict de-escalation. The situation now is not concealed carry bumping into an armed robbery. It's frustrated people stuck at home. Failing to do this means losing an opportunity to gain voters who are suddenly shocked at the hurdles in buying a firearm.
Now, if the situation was different and food delivery was stopped, then having a firearm means people will ask nicely for food instead of whacking you over the head with baseball bat and just taking it.
* I hope Everyone will learn the harsh lesson that when there is a famine, people will feed themselves first before selling any table scrap to you. Italy has been in dire need of ventilators and Germany/France are hoarding theirs, because they prioritized protecting their own citizens. The production of critical necessities need to be on-shore regardless of higher cost, not sold out to globalists. If this is not realistic or feasible for the nation-state, then a strategic reserve needs to be established and inspected/replenished on regular basis. For larger countries like the US, each State needs to have its own reserve stock as you cannot always depend on the generosity of other states, or the Feds to prioritize relief to you.
An example is China's political leadership selling out its own people's food security by largely abandoning grain self sufficiency policy. Instead of protecting critical farmland they would rather pave it over for short term economic gains. Putting your own people at risk of starvation in a famine, dependence on wishful thinking that other countries facing declining harvest in the same famine would sell food to you. Note that by "critical necessities" and "grain self sufficiency" I mean rice and beans, not bananas and pineapples. You want to import pineapples from Philippines instead of growing locally, fine.
* As individuals we need to do our civic duty in being prepared early and not rushing to Costco after a disaster. Sorry but FEMA has NO capability to deliver food boxes and toilet paper to the 18.8+ million people living in Greater LA area. I doubt they could even mobilize enough resources to feed 10 million people in a month.
You can make your own long-term storage food buckets with food grade buckets/pails, gamma seal lids, mylar bags, oxygen absorbers (300cc or larger), and steam iron (to seal the bags) or a hand sealer. You can order everything from ULINE in Ontario -- UPS deliver in 1-2 days. Pack your own rice and it's good in the bucket for up to 10 years when stored properly. Buckets store toilet paper nicely too.
* Taiwan, SK, and HK are imposing quarantine of 14 days for arrivals. In TW the police will track your cell phone, in HK they put a monitoring bracelet on you.
* Normally test kits go through lengthy certification process, but due to the urgency many companies are taking a carte blanche in releasing test kits that have not been certified. Some companies are not even licensed to make the test kits. Consequently the test results are not always up to par. See: https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/
* Many people who ran to the local gun store are first time buyers. They have no prior experience, possibly not even with BB guns. The Sheriff's concerns are valid, though that alone is not sufficient justification for shutdown. Shops that fail to impose/maintain "social distancing" is acceptable justification. Look at home depot, they have imposed restrictions on number of customers allowed inside, and those waiting outside are required to keep distance according to tape guides on the ground.
* The NRA, Calguns, various pistol and rifle clubs, etc. needs to step up with new safety instruction videos now, and in-person classes later. The videos need to cover not only safe handling, but also safe storage and conflict de-escalation. The situation now is not concealed carry bumping into an armed robbery. It's frustrated people stuck at home. Failing to do this means losing an opportunity to gain voters who are suddenly shocked at the hurdles in buying a firearm.
Now, if the situation was different and food delivery was stopped, then having a firearm means people will ask nicely for food instead of whacking you over the head with baseball bat and just taking it.
* I hope Everyone will learn the harsh lesson that when there is a famine, people will feed themselves first before selling any table scrap to you. Italy has been in dire need of ventilators and Germany/France are hoarding theirs, because they prioritized protecting their own citizens. The production of critical necessities need to be on-shore regardless of higher cost, not sold out to globalists. If this is not realistic or feasible for the nation-state, then a strategic reserve needs to be established and inspected/replenished on regular basis. For larger countries like the US, each State needs to have its own reserve stock as you cannot always depend on the generosity of other states, or the Feds to prioritize relief to you.
An example is China's political leadership selling out its own people's food security by largely abandoning grain self sufficiency policy. Instead of protecting critical farmland they would rather pave it over for short term economic gains. Putting your own people at risk of starvation in a famine, dependence on wishful thinking that other countries facing declining harvest in the same famine would sell food to you. Note that by "critical necessities" and "grain self sufficiency" I mean rice and beans, not bananas and pineapples. You want to import pineapples from Philippines instead of growing locally, fine.
* As individuals we need to do our civic duty in being prepared early and not rushing to Costco after a disaster. Sorry but FEMA has NO capability to deliver food boxes and toilet paper to the 18.8+ million people living in Greater LA area. I doubt they could even mobilize enough resources to feed 10 million people in a month.
You can make your own long-term storage food buckets with food grade buckets/pails, gamma seal lids, mylar bags, oxygen absorbers (300cc or larger), and steam iron (to seal the bags) or a hand sealer. You can order everything from ULINE in Ontario -- UPS deliver in 1-2 days. Pack your own rice and it's good in the bucket for up to 10 years when stored properly. Buckets store toilet paper nicely too.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
To give some perspective, while everyone is posting how the US has the most cases (over 85k now), I think it's more important to look at cases per 1m population and even better, deaths per 1m population.
Luckily, WorldOMeter already has this calculated and sortable (where everyone is getting their numbers from):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Currently, the US is 4 deaths per 1m, which is much lower than Italy (136/m) and Spain (93/m). For Panda, S Korea is also low at 3/m.
What is puzzling is China's numbers, 2/m, which makes you wonder the accuracy of their reporting. In fact, they have reported a 96% recovery rate.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
According to their graphs, it looks like the time from when they hit 25k cases to where it started to flatten out, it took just over 3 weeks.
I wonder how long it will take for the US because after we hit 25k last week, it shot up... but then again, this is a dependent variable on number of tests, etc.
Please continue to try to flatten the curve!
Luckily, WorldOMeter already has this calculated and sortable (where everyone is getting their numbers from):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Currently, the US is 4 deaths per 1m, which is much lower than Italy (136/m) and Spain (93/m). For Panda, S Korea is also low at 3/m.
What is puzzling is China's numbers, 2/m, which makes you wonder the accuracy of their reporting. In fact, they have reported a 96% recovery rate.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
According to their graphs, it looks like the time from when they hit 25k cases to where it started to flatten out, it took just over 3 weeks.
I wonder how long it will take for the US because after we hit 25k last week, it shot up... but then again, this is a dependent variable on number of tests, etc.
Please continue to try to flatten the curve!