test said:
What did I say?
http://irvinehomes.ocregister.com/2011/06/21/luxury-irvine-condo-towers-go-rental/18813/
Central Park West thoughts?
- Thread starter cvballa
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
What did I say?
http://irvinehomes.ocregister.com/2011/06/21/luxury-irvine-condo-towers-go-rental/18813/
What do you want? A cookie?
I called the condo-to-rental conversion FIVE MONTHS before you did:http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php?topic=1356.msg16015#msg16015
Yup, that's been the story of this thread for the past 8 months. I told cvballa that this place would never be worth a purchase at the current prices, and buyers have become much more price sensitive in these days of uncertainty in the housing market. The investors don't want to admit they threw all their hard earned money into a grinder.
What happens when an immovable object(investor fantasies) meets an unstoppable force(market fundamentals)?
I can't wait until they torch the place and make it a huge bon fire with all the local citizenry invited to partake in hot chocolate, smores, and live music.
First off I am a guy.
Second.... I completely disagree that this is a bad plan. This a great location and the amenities are very good and the builder is quality.
You are right, that fundamentals ultimately win out and that has happened here. I have said all along that at the prices they are asking right now it is not worth it. Drop them 15%-20% and it starts looking attractive. The floor plans, location and amenities are good, but price always wins out and that is why I did not buy here and in fact havent bought here. In fact their lowest priced development is basically sold out except for the most expensive floor plan. Anything over $400k they are having a terrible time selling. The target market is the business professional, young married or retired looking to downsize.
In fact if you want to talk fundamentals, almost everywhere in OC is overpriced to some extent. Unless you get a deal on a distressed property, you will likely be paying more on a rent/own basis than you should.
I am looking at belvedere still and check the website regularly to see if there are any price drops. On a price to sqft basis they start getting attractive if the price drops about 15% compared to many other condos in the area.
I looked at Astoria a few months before they turned them into apartments and the sales person actually tried to tell me with a straight face that they had priced them too LOW and that is why they took them off the market. I dont know how i contained my laughter.
This is a great master plan community, but has been priced too high all along and one day they will have to give in to the fundamentals and lower prices. When that day comes ill jump in if I havent bought anything yet. Until then I sit back and wait.
Agreed... I was exaggerating a little, but since most people on here are looking at Irvine, they need to know that Irvine is grossly overvalued based on almost any measure. You can find good values out there, but almost none of them will be in irvine. So to say CPW is insanely overpriced and should be torn down is an overstatement. Its overpriced sure, but all new homes in irvine are overpriced on any fundamental metric (price to rent, price to income, etc) you want to throw at it. So it all comes down to where and how you want to live.
No, it's not an overstatement, it's a simple fact. While Irvine in general may be overpriced, that fact alone doesn't mean that CPW isn't insanely overpriced itself, because it is. Those models won't be at rental parity even with a solid 15% drop (which you seem to be waiting for). That alone should tell you how badly these units are priced.
As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.
What did I say?
http://irvinehomes.ocregister.com/2011/06/21/luxury-irvine-condo-towers-go-rental/18813/
IndieDev
New member
test said:
What do you want? A cookie?
I called the condo-to-rental conversion FIVE MONTHS before you did:http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php?topic=1356.msg16015#msg16015
IndieDev said:
homer_simpson
Well-known member
I want a cookie 
sgip
Well-known member
Wonder what the remaining 6 mortgage holders, ermmm apartment owners, feel about their great idea to purchase. If any of them closed (and I don't have time to look them up) you've got to believe the builder is going to buy them out.
These were apartments from the get go. Anyone thinking otherwise should have taken the blue pill.
My .02c
Soylent Green Is People.
These were apartments from the get go. Anyone thinking otherwise should have taken the blue pill.
My .02c
Soylent Green Is People.
buylowsellhigh
New member
Looked at CPW today for the first time since looking at Astoria/The Plaza maybe 3 yrs ago. I also toured thru just about every available brand new home in Irvine.
- IMO this area offers something different compared to the brand new or nearly new home in woodbury or stonegate. Gives the "urban" feel without the grunginess of DT LA or LB.
- Definitely geared toward the young professional recently married couple but once you have a kid or two, you might "grow" out of a place like this and the lifestyle, especially for the smaller units might get old after awhile. Being in a school district where your kid will likely grow up to be a gangbanger probably doesn't help. With that being said, no kids (yet) means no problems but selling will be difficult.
- The clubhouse amenities are one of the best I seen in the Irvine area (probably due to it all being new). They claim that it was designed by a renowned firm, and IMO gives it a resort/vegas like feel.
- Square footage is comparable to Woodbury/Stonegage; cost per sqft is maybe 15% lower than Stonegate's detached condos. But as everyone has said, what you don't have in terms of price gets made up by the high HOA fees that places such as Belvedere has. And high HOA's, as everyone knows, almost kills the prospect of profit in a rental market.
- These units have a high entertainment value especially if you have guests from out of town or even business associates that you like entertaining at home. Some of these units also offer dual or even triple masters perfect for guests. High visibility vs. cookie cutter suburbia. Everything is turn key.
- Good location to UCI, you can probably rent one of the dual masters to affluent student or even exchange student... $1k for a room including garage might work considering villa siena is 1.5k for a studio.
Pricing/sales wise: it doesnt feel like there is much sales activity. However, if these units drop 10-15%, GenY's with 50-100k saved up will probably start to pull the trigger. Think recently married, combining down pay and/or a little help from parents. If they lose the down payment and some equity 3-5 yrs down the line, well, IMO, the lifestyle to them is fairly important.
Other Thoughts:
You probably won't have to worry about competing with cash buyer from China or HK because they don't have to come this far for these type of amenities. Most of those guys buy in suburban irvine for their kids schooling (western education costs 20-30k a yr in Asia) or a place for their elders to live and walk around. Also, SFH layouts with the irvine suburban feel are considered TOP tier homes back in China.
Investment potential if you want somewhere with positive rental cash flow, Irvine is probably not the best of choice. Values probably won't appreciate anytime soon, there are hundreds if not thousands of new homes waiting to be built, and plenty of existing homes taking along time to sell.
- IMO this area offers something different compared to the brand new or nearly new home in woodbury or stonegate. Gives the "urban" feel without the grunginess of DT LA or LB.
- Definitely geared toward the young professional recently married couple but once you have a kid or two, you might "grow" out of a place like this and the lifestyle, especially for the smaller units might get old after awhile. Being in a school district where your kid will likely grow up to be a gangbanger probably doesn't help. With that being said, no kids (yet) means no problems but selling will be difficult.
- The clubhouse amenities are one of the best I seen in the Irvine area (probably due to it all being new). They claim that it was designed by a renowned firm, and IMO gives it a resort/vegas like feel.
- Square footage is comparable to Woodbury/Stonegage; cost per sqft is maybe 15% lower than Stonegate's detached condos. But as everyone has said, what you don't have in terms of price gets made up by the high HOA fees that places such as Belvedere has. And high HOA's, as everyone knows, almost kills the prospect of profit in a rental market.
- These units have a high entertainment value especially if you have guests from out of town or even business associates that you like entertaining at home. Some of these units also offer dual or even triple masters perfect for guests. High visibility vs. cookie cutter suburbia. Everything is turn key.
- Good location to UCI, you can probably rent one of the dual masters to affluent student or even exchange student... $1k for a room including garage might work considering villa siena is 1.5k for a studio.
Pricing/sales wise: it doesnt feel like there is much sales activity. However, if these units drop 10-15%, GenY's with 50-100k saved up will probably start to pull the trigger. Think recently married, combining down pay and/or a little help from parents. If they lose the down payment and some equity 3-5 yrs down the line, well, IMO, the lifestyle to them is fairly important.
Other Thoughts:
You probably won't have to worry about competing with cash buyer from China or HK because they don't have to come this far for these type of amenities. Most of those guys buy in suburban irvine for their kids schooling (western education costs 20-30k a yr in Asia) or a place for their elders to live and walk around. Also, SFH layouts with the irvine suburban feel are considered TOP tier homes back in China.
Investment potential if you want somewhere with positive rental cash flow, Irvine is probably not the best of choice. Values probably won't appreciate anytime soon, there are hundreds if not thousands of new homes waiting to be built, and plenty of existing homes taking along time to sell.
IndieDev
New member
Nous said:
Yup, that's been the story of this thread for the past 8 months. I told cvballa that this place would never be worth a purchase at the current prices, and buyers have become much more price sensitive in these days of uncertainty in the housing market. The investors don't want to admit they threw all their hard earned money into a grinder.
What happens when an immovable object(investor fantasies) meets an unstoppable force(market fundamentals)?
I can't wait until they torch the place and make it a huge bon fire with all the local citizenry invited to partake in hot chocolate, smores, and live music.
I pass by there everyday on my way to work and it floors me why on earth anyone would buy there. There is this row of town homes that are right on Michelson, it boggles my mind why they would want their front door facing the street. They hosted food truck day once to promote CPW, instead of doing that, like Indie said they should just consider dropping the price by 200k or make it all rental. I personally think its a poorly planned community. Who ever approved CPW master plan should be fired.
buylowsellhigh
New member
No firm in general, not even remotely close to the real estate biz. I'm in import/export, lived in irvine (renting and for a good reason) for the last 10 yrs .
LAtoOC said:
buylowsellhigh
New member
I could think of a few reasons why this neighborhood might make sense and its mostly corporate... It makes some sense for firms around the area to pick up some property and use as corporate housing. Dropping 20% on a down payment and making monthly mortgage is certainly cheaper than $150/night for hotels. I've got a buddy who works for big-5 consulting and has lived at the W hotel for the last 6 months. Their client has already paid $250/night for the last 6 months.. makes more sense to pick up a $350-400k condo.
CPW for family? fail.
CPW for rental property? fail.
CPW for school district? fail.
I'm thinking that if they can fill up Astoria, they may even convert a few more of these things to rental property and just compete with villa siena.
CPW for family? fail.
CPW for rental property? fail.
CPW for school district? fail.
I'm thinking that if they can fill up Astoria, they may even convert a few more of these things to rental property and just compete with villa siena.
workdork said:
frank69m said:
First off I am a guy.
Second.... I completely disagree that this is a bad plan. This a great location and the amenities are very good and the builder is quality.
IndieDev said:
You are right, that fundamentals ultimately win out and that has happened here. I have said all along that at the prices they are asking right now it is not worth it. Drop them 15%-20% and it starts looking attractive. The floor plans, location and amenities are good, but price always wins out and that is why I did not buy here and in fact havent bought here. In fact their lowest priced development is basically sold out except for the most expensive floor plan. Anything over $400k they are having a terrible time selling. The target market is the business professional, young married or retired looking to downsize.
In fact if you want to talk fundamentals, almost everywhere in OC is overpriced to some extent. Unless you get a deal on a distressed property, you will likely be paying more on a rent/own basis than you should.
I am looking at belvedere still and check the website regularly to see if there are any price drops. On a price to sqft basis they start getting attractive if the price drops about 15% compared to many other condos in the area.
I looked at Astoria a few months before they turned them into apartments and the sales person actually tried to tell me with a straight face that they had priced them too LOW and that is why they took them off the market. I dont know how i contained my laughter.
This is a great master plan community, but has been priced too high all along and one day they will have to give in to the fundamentals and lower prices. When that day comes ill jump in if I havent bought anything yet. Until then I sit back and wait.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
I have to disagree with your statement above. There are several cities in OC where you can buy at or slightly below rental parity...Yorba Linda, Anaheim Hills, Brea, Orange, and Aliso Viejo to mind. Prices in those cities have gone down a lot more than prices in Irvine. If I was looking for a rental property, it wouldn't be one of those condos at CPW, there are better opportunities out there if you look well enough.cvballa said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Agreed... I was exaggerating a little, but since most people on here are looking at Irvine, they need to know that Irvine is grossly overvalued based on almost any measure. You can find good values out there, but almost none of them will be in irvine. So to say CPW is insanely overpriced and should be torn down is an overstatement. Its overpriced sure, but all new homes in irvine are overpriced on any fundamental metric (price to rent, price to income, etc) you want to throw at it. So it all comes down to where and how you want to live.
IndieDev
New member
cvballa said:
No, it's not an overstatement, it's a simple fact. While Irvine in general may be overpriced, that fact alone doesn't mean that CPW isn't insanely overpriced itself, because it is. Those models won't be at rental parity even with a solid 15% drop (which you seem to be waiting for). That alone should tell you how badly these units are priced.
As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.