Biggest Irvine drop?

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[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1251191068][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1251167156]<strong>I think there is a second factor to my FCB Theory that doesn't get discussed. It's not just the FCBs who are buying the rather low inventory at non-fundamentally high prices... it's also the FCBs who have bought within the last 5-10 years and are HOLDING onto their homes even if they are upside down.</strong>



Sorry if I'm sounding bullish... but can we get some updates on predictions from the bears of IHB? Given the government/bank shenanigans... where do you now see the pricing going in Irvine (esp the more stubborn areas)? Do you think it will rollback to 1999? When?</blockquote>
IHO, I've said it once but I'll keep saying it until it changes....the PRIMARY reason why prices in Irvine are holding up is due to a lack of organic and REO inventory. The number of buyers has probably stayed stable or slightly decreased but inventory has come down from about 1,300 homes to 557 as of 7pm today (of which there are 132 short sales which results in 425 real listings). I would guarantee you that prices would come down 10-20% if the inventory of homes more than doubled overnight.</blockquote>
Exactly... look at my bolded statement above... FCB Theory 102.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1251194850][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1251191068][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1251167156]<strong>I think there is a second factor to my FCB Theory that doesn't get discussed. It's not just the FCBs who are buying the rather low inventory at non-fundamentally high prices... it's also the FCBs who have bought within the last 5-10 years and are HOLDING onto their homes even if they are upside down.</strong>



Sorry if I'm sounding bullish... but can we get some updates on predictions from the bears of IHB? Given the government/bank shenanigans... where do you now see the pricing going in Irvine (esp the more stubborn areas)? Do you think it will rollback to 1999? When?</blockquote>
IHO, I've said it once but I'll keep saying it until it changes....the PRIMARY reason why prices in Irvine are holding up is due to a lack of organic and REO inventory. The number of buyers has probably stayed stable or slightly decreased but inventory has come down from about 1,300 homes to 557 as of 7pm today (of which there are 132 short sales which results in 425 real listings). I would guarantee you that prices would come down 10-20% if the inventory of homes more than doubled overnight.</blockquote>
Exactly... look at my bolded statement above... FCB Theory 102.</blockquote>
Not quite that...my theory for the low inventory levels that there are many people who are underwater (either bought at the peak or HELOC'ed themselves out of the home) and can not seller even if they wanted to (foreclosure radar confirms this). So between the FCBs + people underwater + banks slow to release REO inventory = super tight REAL inventory levels.
 
I'll keep asking questions:



During the downturn of the last bubble, was there an inventory squeeze similar to the one we are seeing now in Irvine?



I was shopping in Irvine in '96... but I don't remember competiting with cash offers or not finding places in my range. I do know a place in Woodbridge got scooped up before I could make an offer. This was also the time when Tustin Ranch and Westpark II were still selling (I almost bought a 2/2 TR townhouse back then for like $125k).
 
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