Biggest Irvine drop?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1226385725]you know a lot who are, and have 20% downpayment? and all cash above the new conforming $625k limit? and who are in rock solid industries that will not be affected by the coming depression?</blockquote>


Which industry? Health care?
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1226385725]you know a lot who are, and have 20% downpayment? and all cash above the new conforming $625k limit? and who are in rock solid industries that will not be affected by the coming depression?</blockquote>
Not personally... but just by recent trends... there are quite a few foreign buyers who have a high interest in Irvine. Many of the recent sales I've known about in my area and other areas in Irvine have been asian buyers with anywhere from 40% to 100% cash. And by asian, I just don't mean Chinese... also Indian.



Just look at IPO and usc's offers... I believe a good percentage were from asian parties.



Maybe people need to Babelfish IHB more?
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1226389476][quote author="freedomCM" date=1226385725]you know a lot who are, and have 20% downpayment? and all cash above the new conforming $625k limit? and who are in rock solid industries that will not be affected by the coming depression?</blockquote>


Which industry? Health care?</blockquote>




health care is taking a big hit already.



first, all the cash business (plastics/dental/etc)



next to come will be a lot of preventative care and QOL proceedures, since people will have a harder time with co-pays.



already, branded pharmaceutical sales are down.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226392129][quote author="freedomCM" date=1226385725]you know a lot who are, and have 20% downpayment? and all cash above the new conforming $625k limit? and who are in rock solid industries that will not be affected by the coming depression?</blockquote>
Not personally... but just by recent trends... there are quite a few foreign buyers who have a high interest in Irvine. Many of the recent sales I've known about in my area and other areas in Irvine have been asian buyers with anywhere from 40% to 100% cash. And by asian, I just don't mean Chinese... also Indian.



Just look at IPO and usc's offers... I believe a good percentage were from asian parties.



Maybe people need to Babelfish IHB more?</blockquote>


Irvine has always had a higher percentage of "Asian" buyers. This percentage now is no different than it was in 2006 or 1996. Don't believe the Asian myth, because it is just that, a myth.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226380573][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1226373121][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226371791]I was going to post a new thread but I was wondering about this as I watch all these prices move:



Are certain parts of Irvine going to be immune to big drops?



usctrojan was able to sell his condo for a profit even though he bought during the peaking cycle... and I don't see big drops in Quail Hill. I've said this before but I can understand seeing 40% drops in the older areas which had lower bases and are not as desireable due to age... but will it really be able to go that far for areas like Quail Hill or Woodbury?



I just can't see homes that originally sold from the builder for $1mil hitting a $600k-$700k price point. Even with foreclosures, it seems there will always be someone to buy it at a premium that will prevent price deterioration.



Maybe I haven't been fully detoxed from the KoolAid yet.</blockquote>


Homes will only sell for what buyers are willing and able to bid. Right now prices in the newer neighborhoods are not dropping as fast because the owners have less room to maneuver. When the foreclosures start to ravage these areas, prices will drop quickly. Must-sell inventory is the key determinant for the rate of price decline. Look at what happened at the Villages of Columbus. Prices have dropped 30%-40% because the builder needed to finish building out the neighborhood. Many have speculated it was because the neighborhood is less desirable, but it really dropped because of the must-sell inventory. The other neighborhoods in Irvine will catch up, it is only a matter of time.</blockquote>
I understand the theory... I just am wondering if there are other factors that would prevent such drops. We can't really compare VoC to Quail Hill as QH is already built out and sold. Maybe Woodbury as Villa Rosa still has a few phases to go and Portola Springs is in deeper trouble.



I think we will see the drops at the lower end of QH but in the mid to high... aren't most of those buyers more stable than the half-a-mil Santa Ana 3ba/2br owners? Wouldn't they hold longer? Wouldn't there be less foreclosures? Wouldn't those end up being bought by people who can afford the pricetag?



I'm not itching to buy now... but I know a lot are and how will this affect those areas.</blockquote>


The newer neighborhoods of Northwood II, Woodbury, Turtle Ridge and Quail Hill are going to be flattened because all the owners there paid too much, and most of them used exotic financing. The reason Santa Ana was blasted first had nothing to do with desirability, it had everything to do with the ARM reset schedule. Their loans were subprime which reset in 2007 and 2008. The owners in Irvine are Alt-A and Prime, and their resets are scheduled from 2009-2011. These are more sophisticated borrowers, and they may drag things out for a while, but they cannot afford the loans they have, and they will implode. The only neighborhoods that will not be totally flattened by foreclosures will be the high-end neighborhoods that had little turnover during the bubble. Turtle Rock will probably fare best in Irvine. Of course, there will not be buyers willing to pay the outrageous asking prices, so there will be almost no volume, but on paper, it will look like prices did not fall much there.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1226400495][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226392129][quote author="freedomCM" date=1226385725]you know a lot who are, and have 20% downpayment? and all cash above the new conforming $625k limit? and who are in rock solid industries that will not be affected by the coming depression?</blockquote>
Not personally... but just by recent trends... there are quite a few foreign buyers who have a high interest in Irvine. Many of the recent sales I've known about in my area and other areas in Irvine have been asian buyers with anywhere from 40% to 100% cash. And by asian, I just don't mean Chinese... also Indian.



Just look at IPO and usc's offers... I believe a good percentage were from asian parties.



Maybe people need to Babelfish IHB more?</blockquote>


Irvine has always had a higher percentage of "Asian" buyers. This percentage now is no different than it was in 2006 or 1996. Don't believe the Asian myth, because it is just that, a myth.</blockquote>
But doesn't that lend to that theory since most of these Asian buyers seem to have good credit and access to cash (maybe they print money)?



Not having access to the financing information, it's hard for me to even know what type of loans have been used to finance the newer area homes but I'll have to trust IR on that. I just feel like there are still quite of few KCs (as you guys call them) that may soften the blow.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226406549][quote author="graphrix" date=1226400495][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226392129][quote author="freedomCM" date=1226385725]you know a lot who are, and have 20% downpayment? and all cash above the new conforming $625k limit? and who are in rock solid industries that will not be affected by the coming depression?</blockquote>
Not personally... but just by recent trends... there are quite a few foreign buyers who have a high interest in Irvine. Many of the recent sales I've known about in my area and other areas in Irvine have been asian buyers with anywhere from 40% to 100% cash. And by asian, I just don't mean Chinese... also Indian.



Just look at IPO and usc's offers... I believe a good percentage were from asian parties.



Maybe people need to Babelfish IHB more?</blockquote>


Irvine has always had a higher percentage of "Asian" buyers. This percentage now is no different than it was in 2006 or 1996. Don't believe the Asian myth, because it is just that, a myth.</blockquote>
But doesn't that lend to that theory since most of these Asian buyers seem to have good credit and access to cash (maybe they print money)?



Not having access to the financing information, it's hard for me to even know what type of loans have been used to finance the newer area homes but I'll have to trust IR on that. I just feel like there are still quite of few KCs (as you guys call them) that may soften the blow.</blockquote>


Hey what does KC stand for ??? Koreans & Chinese, Kentucky Fried Chicken? I also once believed in the Rich Foreign China Man Myth coming to Irvine invading our precious LAND like the Pilgrims did to the American Indians' land, but not anymore.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226406549]But doesn't that lend to that theory since most of these Asian buyers seem to have good credit and access to cash (maybe they print money)?</blockquote>


Judging by the names of the people getting foreclosed on then Asians don't have such great credit or access to cash/credit any more or less than those with Caucasian names. Again, this is all part of the myth.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1226409549][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226406549]But doesn't that lend to that theory since most of these Asian buyers seem to have good credit and access to cash (maybe they print money)?</blockquote>


Judging by the names of the people getting foreclosed on then Asians don't have such great credit or access to cash/credit any more or less than those with Caucasian names. Again, this is all part of the myth.</blockquote>


Yes, we talked about that in another thread as well. Asian names are well represented in the properties I profile.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1226409549][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226406549]But doesn't that lend to that theory since most of these Asian buyers seem to have good credit and access to cash (maybe they print money)?</blockquote>


Judging by the names of the people getting foreclosed on then Asians don't have such great credit or access to cash/credit any more or less than those with Caucasian names. Again, this is all part of the myth.</blockquote>


In my new role, I have access to over 250,000 REO properties nationwide. I can tell you that 80% of all purchases of Irvine REO's that my company manages are made by asians. All with significant down payments.



It is not a myth that the vast majority of buyers right now are asian.
 
[quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1226413820][quote author="graphrix" date=1226409549][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226406549]But doesn't that lend to that theory since most of these Asian buyers seem to have good credit and access to cash (maybe they print money)?</blockquote>


Judging by the names of the people getting foreclosed on then Asians don't have such great credit or access to cash/credit any more or less than those with Caucasian names. Again, this is all part of the myth.</blockquote>


In my new role, I have access to over 250,000 REO properties nationwide. I can tell you that 80% of all purchases of Irvine REO's that my company manages are made by asians. All with significant down payments.



It is not a myth that the vast majority of buyers right now are asian.</blockquote>


Right, 80%, give or take, of the purchases in Irvine are made by Asians. Same as it was in 2006 and 1996. It hasn't changed.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1226415370][quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1226413820][quote author="graphrix" date=1226409549][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226406549]But doesn't that lend to that theory since most of these Asian buyers seem to have good credit and access to cash (maybe they print money)?</blockquote>


Judging by the names of the people getting foreclosed on then Asians don't have such great credit or access to cash/credit any more or less than those with Caucasian names. Again, this is all part of the myth.</blockquote>


In my new role, I have access to over 250,000 REO properties nationwide. I can tell you that 80% of all purchases of Irvine REO's that my company manages are made by asians. All with significant down payments.



It is not a myth that the vast majority of buyers right now are asian.</blockquote>


Right, 80%, give or take, of the purchases in Irvine are made by Asians. Same as it was in 2006 and 1996. It hasn't changed.</blockquote>
Sorry... I'm not sure what you mean by this.



If the above poster says 80% of the purchases of REOs are by asians with significant down payments... doesn't that mean that unlike other areas where asians are NOT buying... parts of Irvine won't be hit as hard?



From what I've been reading here... there are multiple factors as to why prices are going to decrease... the most relevant to me being affordability, income and buying power. The current financial crisis has shown that majority of people cannot afford to purchase at current prices due to one or more of those factors. However, if there are a high percentage of buyers (ie Asians) where those factors do not really come into play... won't that slow the decrease somewhat?



I'm not trying to be bullish... I know prices will drop... I'm just wondering how much in certain areas. I think you were the one who posted fliers from the last peak in 1990 for new homes... how much did those average in drops to 1996/7 (just the new homes)?



I'm not asking these questions to prove anyone wrong or right... I'm asking them so that I can try to gauge a good prediction of where prices are going to be in 3 to 4 years because I'm currently doing things that will be greatly affected by what happens then.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1226419375][quote author="graphrix" date=1226415370]Right, 80%, give or take, of the purchases in Irvine are made by Asians. Same as it was in 2006 and 1996. It hasn't changed.</blockquote>
Sorry... I'm not sure what you mean by this.



If the above poster says 80% of the purchases of REOs are by asians with significant down payments... doesn't that mean that unlike other areas where asians are NOT buying... parts of Irvine won't be hit as hard?



From what I've been reading here... there are multiple factors as to why prices are going to decrease... the most relevant to me being affordability, income and buying power. The current financial crisis has shown that majority of people cannot afford to purchase at current prices due to one or more of those factors. However, if there are a high percentage of buyers (ie Asians) where those factors do not really come into play... won't that slow the decrease somewhat?



I'm not trying to be bullish... I know prices will drop... I'm just wondering how much in certain areas. I think you were the one who posted fliers from the last peak in 1990 for new homes... how much did those average in drops to 1996/7 (just the new homes)?



I'm not asking these questions to prove anyone wrong or right... I'm asking them so that I can try to gauge a good prediction of where prices are going to be in 3 to 4 years because I'm currently doing things that will be greatly affected by what happens then.</blockquote>


No need to defend yourself. You have admitted that you have begun the Kool-Aid detox process.



My point was, there are always buyers of RE, and especially in Irvine. Also, many of the purchases of RE in Irvine are Asian buyers. It doesn't matter if it is an REO, a new home, or just a normal resale. Buyers will buy the homes if they are priced for what people think they are worth, and Irvine happens to have always had a high percentage of Asian buyers. This is not new, it has always been like that. It's just that no one gave a rats a$$ when homes were selling like crazy, or even before that, to actually look at the demographics of the buyers. Only now, when people spew the BS that the Asians will save the Irvine market, that people start to point out a fact that has always been there. My other point was that many of the foreclosures in Irvine and all of OC are Asian owners. Foreclosures do not discriminate, they see no color, they don't know the difference between Kim and Smith, all they see is the money that should be coming is not, so go get that asset and sell it to a Kim or a Smith, whomever is willing to buy it.



BTW, I am good, really good friends with a Korean family, and they are mainlining the Kool-Aid right now. I try to tell them they are knife catchers if they buy right now, but my hacked up Korean comes out as "I would like to sh*t on your BBQ, and pee in your flowers." So needless to say, it doesn't go over well.
 
Graph,



I will give you some free live Korean lessons on the Irvine Housing Blog.



"You are a knife catcher!" - Na nun - Na nun kal jab nun sa lam e ya!

"You are an idiot for buying right now!" - Na ji gum sa myun byung shin e ya!

"Why is there so many of you living here in Irvine?" Hang goog sa lam dul e Uh-B-I-N-E a wae e le jeh man huh?

"Go back to Korea!" - Hang goog aeh da si ga!



K-Panda
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1226446852]Graph,



I will give you some free live Korean lessons on the Irvine Housing Blog.



"You are a knife catcher!" - Na nun - Na nun kal jab nun sa lam e ya!

"You are an idiot for buying right now!" - Na ji gum sa myun byung shin e ya!

"Why is there so many of you living here in Irvine?" Hang goog sa lam dul e Uh-B-I-N-E a wae e le jeh man huh?

"Go back to Korea!" - Hang goog aeh da si ga!



K-Panda</blockquote>


That's good stuff. I will practice a little bit before I use it for real, but that is awesome. Well... I won't tell them to go back to Korea, as they left for various reasons and have contributed to society here in so many ways.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1226446852]Graph,



I will give you some free live Korean lessons on the Irvine Housing Blog.



"You are a knife catcher!" - Na nun - Na nun kal jab nun sa lam e ya!

"You are an idiot for buying right now!" - Na ji gum sa myun byung shin e ya!

"Why is there so many of you living here in Irvine?" Hang goog sa lam dul e Uh-B-I-N-E a wae e le jeh man huh?

"Go back to Korea!" - Hang goog aeh da si ga!



K-Panda</blockquote>


How do you say, "Congratulations, first Korean-American Mayor of Irvine?"
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1226448402][quote author="PANDA" date=1226446852]Graph,



I will give you some free live Korean lessons on the Irvine Housing Blog.



"You are a knife catcher!" - Na nun - Na nun kal jab nun sa lam e ya!

"You are an idiot for buying right now!" - Na ji gum sa myun byung shin e ya!

"Why is there so many of you living here in Irvine?" Hang goog sa lam dul e Uh-B-I-N-E a wae e le jeh man huh?

"Go back to Korea!" - Hang goog aeh da si ga!



K-Panda</blockquote>


How do you say, "Congratulations, first Korean-American Mayor of Irvine?"</blockquote>


Congratulations is "Chook ha ham ni da" First is "Chut bun jae" I am not sure how to say Mayor in Korean.. I am such a twinkie, I need brush up on my Korean vocabulary as well. :)



IR2, thank you for emailing me the info on the prospective Irvine Homes. You are the BEST real estate agent in all of Irvine.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1226448796]IR2, thank you for emailing me the info on the prospective Irvine Homes. You are the BEST real estate agent in all of Irvine.</blockquote>


You are very welcome, Panda.



<em>Na ji gum sa myun byung shin e ya! </em>



(just practicing)
 
[quote author="Astute Observer" date=1226450180]Remember that a client is *always* right, IR2.</blockquote>
Even when they are actually wrong. haha I hate to say this but people, in general, are idiots (*FLAME SUIT ON*).
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1226452319][quote author="Astute Observer" date=1226450180]Remember that a client is *always* right, IR2.</blockquote>
Even when they are actually wrong. haha I hate to say this but people, in general, are idiots (*FLAME SUIT ON*).</blockquote>


I cope with life by constantly reminding myself that being stupid is nothing to be ashamed of.
 
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