Bench Mark Pricing in Irvine

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1241159779]I would pay a 60% premium if they had a 3-car wide garage... not.



Isn't $375/sft around the current pricing for new homes in Irvine? Most resale is floating around the $300-$400 range depending on size/location... who has the latest Portola Springs pricing?



IR: Do you really see Irvine hitting $200/sft? That would be so awesome.</blockquote>


I think you will see new construction Corona bottom around $125/SF and the remainder of Riverside County bottom near $100/SF. This will put tremendous pressure on OC pricing. Irvine resales will bottom around $200/SF and new will will command a 10% premium--assuming they want to sell some. They may accept lower volume and keep new prices between $225/SF to $250/SF, but they will not sell many.



I have met with important people at Rancho Mission Viejo (is that cryptic enough?) and I can tell you their expectation is for a new home price much less than $375/SF--not that they would complain if it were higher--they are just more in alignment with reality than the Irvine Company.
 
Its a nice dream mr BK!



But I just don't see it when NPCoast will be selling at $300 and the older sections of NPB at $250 or less.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1241164023]Its a nice dream mr BK!



But I just don't see it when NPCoast will be selling at $300 and the older sections of NPB at $250 or less.</blockquote>


Strategy is to bulk up cheap footage but keep the expensive items like kitchen and bath to a minimum. First TIC must keep the same density. Second a planned 2,000sf x $375=$750k would be disguise as a 3,000sf x $250 = $750k on the same piece of postage stamp lot. The extra 1,000 sf is cheap and contractor can doing for $30/sf for studs and drywall only. Contractors at this time are hungry for work and this would be TIC's leverage.
 
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1241158848][quote author="bkshopr" date=1241156310]... the cravings of desperate Chinese buyers for new homes. </blockquote>


BK: I am wondering - do the Chinese have any limits when it comes to what they will pay for a new construction? Let's just say they would have to pay twice as much per sqft for a new home as they would for a resale down the block... would that be considered all fine and well to them?</blockquote>


Like I said, non-Chinese will slowly get squeezed out of Irvine. Non-believers will repent!
 
40% of all new homes are Asian buyers. Instead of building 100% TIC would limit its supply to only target Asians and to balance absorption. The strategy is to rationing supply to rallying demand.



Top strategists are being hired to plot the scenario.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241163912][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1241159779]I would pay a 60% premium if they had a 3-car wide garage... not.



Isn't $375/sft around the current pricing for new homes in Irvine? Most resale is floating around the $300-$400 range depending on size/location... who has the latest Portola Springs pricing?



IR: Do you really see Irvine hitting $200/sft? That would be so awesome.</blockquote>


I think you will see new construction Corona bottom around $125/SF and the remainder of Riverside County bottom near $100/SF. This will put tremendous pressure on OC pricing. Irvine resales will bottom around $200/SF and new will will command a 10% premium--assuming they want to sell some. They may accept lower volume and keep new prices between $225/SF to $250/SF, but they will not sell many.



I have met with important people at Rancho Mission Viejo (is that cryptic enough?) and I can tell you their expectation is for a new home price much less than $375/SF--not that they would complain if it were higher--they are just more in alignment with reality than the Irvine Company.</blockquote>


PJ from Mission Viejo Company also knows that his schools is not island of gold. MV's Panda Express and the International food aisle at Albertsons would not be able to compete with the appeal of 99 Ranch and Sam Woo.



TIC has the retail infrastructure to draw the Chinese buyers. The only way to deter Chinese buyers are more icicle gun incidents and lurking Spirits.
 
[quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1241168806]what the heck is an icicle gun?</blockquote>


It's what the man at the Trabuco Grove shopping center committed suicide with. It's the only logical weapon you could use to do yourself in, and then have it conveniently disappear without a trace. Clearly this was the work of an icicle gun. There is absolutely no way it could have been a murder. Murders do not happen in Irvine.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1241164023]Its a nice dream mr BK!



But I just don't see it when NPCoast will be selling at $300 and the older sections of NPB at $250 or less.</blockquote>
BK has more Irvine housing experience than all the rest of us on this board put together. Bet against him at your own peril.
 
[quote author="jumpcut" date=1241171295][quote author="freedomCM" date=1241164023]Its a nice dream mr BK!



But I just don't see it when NPCoast will be selling at $300 and the older sections of NPB at $250 or less.</blockquote>
BK has more Irvine housing experience than all the rest of us on this board put together. Bet against him at your own peril.</blockquote>


Here is the proper equation: IHO = Graph + BK + No Vas



I guess TEN left and IHO is my new target. Since He is at home with his kids and he seldoms log on after 5:51 pm. I am taking advantage of the night time to get my a dose of IHO bashing.
 
[quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1241168806]what the heck is an icicle gun?</blockquote>


There are too many IHB lingoes.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1241167360]40% of all new homes are Asian buyers. Instead of building 100% TIC would limit its supply to only target Asians and to balance absorption. The strategy is to rationing supply to rallying demand.



Top strategists are being hired to plot the scenario.</blockquote>
If the Chinese want to be suckers and overpay for Irvine properties, more power to them. There's no way in hell I'm gonna pay $375/sf in the next 5 years for a property unless it's got a view of the ocean. Irvine schools are good but overrated in my opinion. If what you say is true, then the local schools will have the same demographics that Hong Kong schools have. I think even the Chinese would be smart enough not to pay WTF prices and just find a rental. You don't need to own a home in Irvine to send your kids off to an Irvine school, all you need is an address in Irvine.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1241174781][quote author="bkshopr" date=1241167360]40% of all new homes are Asian buyers. Instead of building 100% TIC would limit its supply to only target Asians and to balance absorption. The strategy is to rationing supply to rallying demand.



Top strategists are being hired to plot the scenario.</blockquote>
If the Chinese want to be suckers and overpay for Irvine properties, more power to them. There's no way in hell I'm gonna pay $375/sf in the next 5 years for a property unless it's got a view of the ocean. Irvine schools are good but overrated in my opinion. If what you say is true, then the local schools will have the same demographics that Hong Kong schools have. I think even the Chinese would be smart enough not to pay WTF prices and just find a rental. You don't need to own a home in Irvine to send your kids off to an Irvine school, all you need is an address in Irvine.</blockquote>


Very good point except in Chinese culture renting is not perceived as unsuccessful and being looked down on by relatives. Chinese parents sometime would help their kids and in-law to buy a home so they can save face among their relatives.



Chinese parents are tough on caucasian men dating thier daughter if he is still renting. After marriage he better buy a house or they will insist him taking the red envelopes. It is important to Chinese parents to brag about their daughter marrying well.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1241177692][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1241174781][quote author="bkshopr" date=1241167360]40% of all new homes are Asian buyers. Instead of building 100% TIC would limit its supply to only target Asians and to balance absorption. The strategy is to rationing supply to rallying demand.



Top strategists are being hired to plot the scenario.</blockquote>
If the Chinese want to be suckers and overpay for Irvine properties, more power to them. There's no way in hell I'm gonna pay $375/sf in the next 5 years for a property unless it's got a view of the ocean. Irvine schools are good but overrated in my opinion. If what you say is true, then the local schools will have the same demographics that Hong Kong schools have. I think even the Chinese would be smart enough not to pay WTF prices and just find a rental. You don't need to own a home in Irvine to send your kids off to an Irvine school, all you need is an address in Irvine.</blockquote>


Very good point except in Chinese culture renting is not perceived as successful and being looked down on by relatives. Chinese parents sometime would help their kids and in-law to buy a home so they can save face among their relatives.



Chinese parents are tough on caucasian men dating thier daughter if he is still renting. After marriage he better buy a house or they will insist him taking the red envelopes. It is important to Chinese parents to brag about their daughter marrying well.</blockquote>
I can understand about family bragging rights as I came from a European family. I also know first hand of what you say because I've seen when it when I was dating a chinese gf years ago...her sister married a whitie and I would hear her parents talk smack behind his back because they didn't buy a home for him and his wife.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1241156310]Resales will be based on new benchmark pricing. Strategy will be a release of limited number of new homes and just enough to satisfy the cravings of desperate Chinese buyers for new homes. As soon the transactions take place that creates the benchmark validation full press release to OCR, LA Times, Irvine Worlds News, and etc to create excitement and frenzy. Spirit writer Adam Probolsky will be anxiously waiting to publish the juicy news. A full page front page news will also be in OC Metro.



Former school site in Woodbury and the Esplanade site along the diagonal would likely be the sites of new release due to infrastructure already in place.</blockquote>


Sounds like desperation and fantasy projection to me. But what do I know?
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1241167360]40% of all new homes are Asian buyers. Instead of building 100% TIC would limit its supply to only target Asians and to balance absorption. The strategy is to rationing supply to rallying demand.



Top strategists are being hired to plot the scenario.</blockquote>
Oh me oh my... Graph might want to cover his ears... you're basically describing my FCB Theory.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1241181906][quote author="bkshopr" date=1241167360]40% of all new homes are Asian buyers. Instead of building 100% TIC would limit its supply to only target Asians and to balance absorption. The strategy is to rationing supply to rallying demand.



Top strategists are being hired to plot the scenario.</blockquote>
Oh me oh my... Graph might want to cover his ears... you're basically describing my FCB Theory.</blockquote>


That can't be right that we are on the same page then I retract my statement.

Actually IHO you are wrong. The FCB are not interested in Irvine. They are interested in the San Gabriel Valley. Graph's analysis many posts ago was right about the FCB would not save our Housing industry from swirling down the toilet.



The demographic TIC is targeting is not FCB in fact they are the older 1.5 generation who insists a brand new home. They are parents of pre-teens seeking good school district and want good value. They have low aesthetic expectation just like IHO. They are interested in utilitarian function. Neighborhood along the West Irvine and Oakcreek spec level would be ideal for this group when HOA fee is reduced to a minimum due to less amenities and less landscape up keeping.



The goal will be to do well with a limited release of a few homes in the first phase and then exponentially magnify the good news through a massive media campaign through out SoCal. The marketing budget may be the largest that we would only witness once in our lifetime. There is only one shot at this.



Minipulation of school boundary is another strategy that could create public panic. Buy now so your kids can still be qualify for this school before the zone change.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1241222294][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1241181906][quote author="bkshopr" date=1241167360]40% of all new homes are Asian buyers. Instead of building 100% TIC would limit its supply to only target Asians and to balance absorption. The strategy is to rationing supply to rallying demand.



Top strategists are being hired to plot the scenario.</blockquote>
Oh me oh my... Graph might want to cover his ears... you're basically describing my FCB Theory.</blockquote>


That can't be right that we are on the same page then I retract my statement.

Actually IHO you are wrong. The FCB are not interested in Irvine. They are interested in the San Gabriel Valley. Graph's analysis many posts ago was right about the FCB would not save our Housing industry from swirling down the toilet.



The demographic TIC is targeting is not FCB in fact they are the older 1.5 generation who insists a brand new home. They are parents of pre-teens seeking good school district and want good value. They have low aesthetic expectation just like IHO. They are interested in utilitarian function. Neighborhood along the West Irvine and Oakcreek spec level would be ideal for this group when HOA fee is reduced to a minimum due to less amenities and less landscape up keeping.</blockquote>
Actually... you are wrong because you don't even understand my theory. Stop hiding behing that "english isn't my first language" facade... you read/write/speak english quite fluently but you tend to fail when it comes to my posts.



My FCB Theory wasn't that Foreign Cash Buyers were going to save the Housing Industry... but that they keep certain markets from falling as fast as the rest of them because they don't really take into account fundamental valuation and are not affected by the credit crunch (since they do high cash transactions).



The demographic you are describing sounds pretty close to an FCB and just by the fact that they will support a $375/sft benchmark while it is much lower elsewhere correlates directly to my hypothesis.



Asian = Foreign

Older 1.5 gen = Cash

New Home = Buyer



Now, I'm not really that serious about it... I just like to keep Graph on his toes... but just like stereotypes... there is some merit to it.



Sorry bk... you lose again... but thanks for playing.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1241222294]Minipulation of school boundary is another strategy that could create public panic. Buy now so your kids can still be qualify for this school before the zone change.</blockquote>
Oooo... more post-fu... but I totally agree with this.



It's so interesting how perception affects what parents do. I'll admit I was one of those people who was under the IUSD spell, but after reading posts from users here and reading articles about the schools in the Tustin Ranch area... there's no real difference, schools in TUSD do just as well... if not better than their IUSD counterparts. When I talk to other parents about where they are sending their children after pre-school, many of them are sending them to schools not in their neighborhood just because they think that it's better... and this is within Irvine! Not only does it have to be in Irvine... but it has to be a certain school in Irvine... wow.



It's what Columbus Grove was using to sell their homes, Tustin location but IUSD school district (albeit schools that weren't even near the neighborhood).



I'm not sure if I recall correctly... but I think even bk is sending his kid to an Irvine school.
 
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