A few Home for the next few years.

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
bk...In stating...VOC, Ladera and Portola Springs will be the only places with new homes...are you implying or hypothesizing that Woodbury, Woodbury East should reach a sell out before 2010?
 
<p>BK -</p>

<p>So, if they sell Phase 1 in OH, then hold the rest for after 2010 ... what will happen to the association dues and amenities for the people who buy in Phase 1?</p>
 
<p>Laing</p>

<p>Maybe they'll pay your HOA for you. I already seen it with one builder in OC that is paying 3 yrs of HOA. </p>
 
<p>bk,</p>

<p>Now that we know the builders are delaying. Other than design changes. Do you know what the new products are going to be?</p>
 
I wish I knew. Judging from I have read from trade magazines. Going green seems to be the direction for most progressive builders. Builders are like sheep and they have to copy from each other's technology. I can only predict from past history. The long halt from the last recession produced really cutting edge products. All the ugly 3 car garages disappeared from the elevation, extremely high volume ceiling disappeared, and architecture inspired by historic origin replaced generic pink stucco boxes.
 
IMO TIC is a privately held company not answerable to shareholders or board of directors. If the owner wishes, he can sit on the land and lease them to farmers and nursery. He is rich enough that he could grow mushrooms instead of building homes if he wishes.





I have no objections to building affordable housing in Irvine, so long as they're offered to people who work in the area as a priority. Do I think someone who works 50 hours/week at Irvine Spectrum retail & cannot afford to live in Irvine, should receive subsidies via affordable housing program? Yes I do. I believe we should look after our own, and the people who bust their ass all day to provide us with food and retail services here in Irvine deserves a break.
 
bkshopr, thank you very much for this post. As much as I would want TIC to release homes in these new villages at lower prices, it doesn't make sense from TIC's perspective. Thanks for keeping us informed on the latest news on these developments!
 
<p>If the availablity of non-conforming loans (above $417k) does not improve soon and remain solid (low spreads from conforming), it is game over for Orange County's $640k median housing price.</p>

<p>The only thing TIC will be able to wait for is inflation to catch up and the conforming limit to rise to their "deemed worthy" selling prices. I assure you that is not part of a retrenching strategy, because that will be another decade or more.</p>

<p>It doesn't matter how many alleged $250k earners there are on the pent up demand side, many of them still need loans, and even more of the people who only earn half that will need loans.</p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
This all sounds great, assuming the market will pick back up in 2010, what happens if it's not until 2020. Then there's still all the homes in VoC and The Great Park that I assume are not part of TIC housing plans. These areas will drive market prices for the next few years if new construction is halted. There could be further market erosion if prices are slashed at the Great Park down to actual affordable levels.





What's the comeback for OH and Laguna Crossing if they're still priced at 450sq ft? I assume other competing neighborhoods in Newport Coast, Laguna, and others will also be hit with lowered prices which will compete directly against OH and Laguna Crossing. While I like OH and LC, neither of them are sooo nice to sway me over a home with more coastal feel and views.
 
<p>I guess I'm falling on deaf ears, but from a company's standpoint you cannot just stop your on-going operations on a dime like that. If I understand correctly, TIC already owns this land and is "leasing or selling" to the builders? If this is the case, TIC has already made their capital investments when they bought the land. It makes no business sense that they would make capital investments and then not try to generate revenues with it. If anything, the ones that have yet to make the full capital investments, the builders, may be the ones putting a halt to the build outs. </p>
 
<p>bkshopr - can you explain what you mean by <em>"Aliso Viejo and RSM were the aftermath of the last recession. Their community quality and legacy are landmark case studies of what not to do. Residents of both cities refer themselves as South County residents"</em></p>

<p>i don't know much about these 2 areas.</p>
 
<p>TIC bought the land in '78 or '79, so that's not really the issue. I would think the cost of capital improvements might hurt a bit, and I would think the improved land would be reassessed at a higher rate, which would pinch, too. But Bren has lots of cash flow from commercial RE (apartments, office buildings, and retail) that can keep him going while residential rides it out.</p>

<p>Also, TIC only sells the lots to builders on a phase by phase basis so that the builders don't get stuck with much holding cost on land that isn't being built out.</p>
 
<p>Great Park and VoC are the hurdles that why TIC did not monopolized the race. Lennar although has deep pocket as a public company. Shareholders could change the course when Lennar continues to make risky business decisions. Lennar bought the land cheap from the government with the city of Irvine and Tustin's endorsement. By the way council members live in Lennar homes. Mmmm</p>
 
<p><em>"Also, TIC only sells the lots to builders on a phase by phase basis so that the builders don't get stuck with much holding cost on land that isn't being built out."</em></p>

<p>Just to be clear, the fact that the builders don't get stuck with those holding costs is a secondary effect to TIC's profit maximizing, not a chartiable act of looking out for the builders. If TIC could maximize profits to the same degree <em>and </em>stick the builders with the holding costs, they would.</p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
I don't mind that they're waiting it out til 2010 or whenever, I'm just wondering they're just waiting with the mentality of $5 million an acre in 2010. I'm guessing that they are. I think nearly everyone's equity in their homes will drop by 2010 leaving less and less move-up buyers with the cash and money to pony up a 1.2M+ homes at 8.5% interest rates.
 
<p>>><em>"Also, TIC only sells the lots to builders on a phase by phase basis so that the builders don't get stuck with much holding cost on land that isn't being built out."</em></p>

<p>My point on this is that they want the control. TIC doesn't want to pull a Moreno Valley circa 1995 where the builder slaps up a bunch of homes with no purchasers for them. Nor do they want the builder to flood the market with homes which might drive down the prices. Sorry if the "so that" sounded more causal than I meant it to.</p>
 
During the boom time land prices escalated in subsequent phases so why sell all the land to the builders at one time. Holding on to the land gives TIC a better control over the builders' destiny.
 
<p>Despite Bren's philanthropy, he reminds me of Montgomery Burns, especially in that Simpson's episode where he builds a sun-blocker and tries to ransom Springfield for it. Although, in Bren's case it is land.</p>

<p>He won the monopoly-like game of purchasing all the available land (in Irvine) and is now in Stage 2 of his grand plan: That is, he would like to build a strong local economy which produces high paying jobs staffed by professionals who have no qualms about coming home to their high density apartment-like dwellings to which they forfeit a large portion of their paychecks to support.</p>

<p>A portion of the monopoly profits are then given to charities so that we may say, "what a nice man that Mr. Bren is!"</p>
 
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