2012 New Home Speculation

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
irvinehomeowner said:
iacrenter said:
Here is a site map for LR--not sure how accurate it is. They all appear to be traditional SFR setup.
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Yeah... those all look like regular streets with sidewalks and driveways... thank you New Home Company. Do any of those look like they can be 3CWGs?

Note to TIC: You better start thinking about putting driveways AND streets back into your tract plans.
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Yeah, right now Lambert is what I want to see shape out some.  I think they are going to be priced to high, but if they aren't then I might move there and call it a day.  I don't want a big home or a huge yard, but a home just isn't a home with a mother lovin' driveway!
 
i've been trying to talk to as many "front line" people to see if i can get any juicy info...  unfortunately, they are all robots that deliver a carefully written message.  For a minute I thought I heard

"...my ship has fallen under attack and I'm afraid my mission to bring you to Alderaan has failed. I have placed information vital to the survival of the Rebellion into the memory systems of this R2 unit. My father will know how to retrieve it. You must see this droid safely delivered to him in Alderaan. This is our most desperate hour. Help me, Obi-Wan Kenobi. You're my only hope..."

but I digress (and I guess TIC's message would be from the empire)...  the message I've been hearing from Stonegate and elsewhere is that TIC is not interested in offering large discounts or incentives, or willing to take large haircuts in pricing...  I just asked, "what if I offered you guys $800K for this Maricopa model 2 (priced at $874) and was willing to put a large non-refundable deposit"...  no real answer just, "I'm sorry, but we are not offering any pricing discounts at this time..."      Gone is the day where two parties could negotiate and actually do business...    it is like the NBA lockout.  Buyers want x pricing... (2500 sq ft, driveway, 700's) and the sellers (TIC) wants to offer 2000 sq ft, motorcourt, 700s... something like that...    so what does 2012 bring?  A stubborn TIC who will focus on apartments and further densifying our local population, and an opportunity for other developers...    our family is now actively looking at existing homes, which have come down in pricing to the point I'd be willing to buy a project house.
 
But the Bren was interviewed today and he admitted that the economy (and hence the real estate market) was still a long way from recovering.  That implies a recognition of a difficult sales environment, maybe.... ??  that will mean slightly lower pricing too?  China is headed for a slow down so the Chinese buyer cannot be counted on.......
 
If TIC thinks that LA will sell with no discount, they are going to wait until 2030 to sell all those units, when inflation makes those prices somewhat palatable. Of course by then, they will be hideously outdated, full of squatters, cannibals, and pedophiles trying to escape government troops imposing martial law.
 
TIC could afford to restrict and hold supply for another 2 years. In the meantime Chindians will have babies. Parents or/and in laws will nag them to get out of renting and buy a permanent place to raise the jewel of the family. The pent up demand will surge just like the last 2010 Collection where the Gen Y buyers use the money gift from the elders for down payment.

The next two years will be somewhat dormant. TIC marketing/IP must convince Bren that new market research and new product development are necessary for the 2015's robust recovery so their livers will not be eaten and they continue to have a job.
 
That actually sounds feasible.

I'm just glad I'll be out of here by then. Let's see, TIC will add another 10,000-15,000 IAC units, along with more high density, attach/detached condo products, 6 to a motorcourt, and the Chindian buying spree will leave Irvine looking like little Bangalore.

It's not like Irvine is already crowded or anything, right?
 
regarding high density, i can only imagine what the sand canyon exit off of the 5 south is going to be impacted by the build out of Cypress Village, Stonegate, and Portola Springs.  Ive been going to the a dentist off of sand canyon and i exit from the 5 south.  both times the exit has been badly backed up, the time is about 8:45 each time.  they really need to expand that exit lane into at least two to get the people off of the 5.  if i lived in WB,SG, or PS, i would definitely take the 133N and exit irvine blvd
 
irvinehomeshopper said:
TIC could afford to restrict and hold supply for another 2 years. In the meantime Chindians will have babies. Parents or/and in laws will nag them to get out of renting and buy a permanent place to raise the jewel of the family. The pent up demand will surge just like the last 2010 Collection where the Gen Y buyers use the money gift from the elders for down payment.

The next two years will be somewhat dormant. TIC marketing/IP must convince Bren that new market research and new product development are necessary for the 2015's robust recovery so their livers will not be eaten and they continue to have a job.
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The problem is that by 2013, Heritage Fields will start pumping out homes and TIC will no longer tightly control new home construction within the city. Faced with new competition they will either have to lower prices (doubtful) or offer innovative layouts and/or upgrades. By the the looks of the preliminary home plans for Heritage Fields, they will have more traditional SFR lots and mostly likely bigger than what TIC currently offers. So the prices might be similar but you will get more for you money at the Great Park--again this is all speculation on my part.

A big monkey wrench for Heritage Fields may be IUSD designation. If they cannot secure it, it will be a major marketing failure for them and a win for the TIC monopoly. Also, there will be plenty of talk about toxic soil (think Tustin Legacy Redux) on the former military base.
 
TIC will influence IUSD to eliminate the Great Park as their district boundary but to create a stepchild (inferior) IUSD High School to take in students from the poor families living in the affordable projects. A lower API score from this school compared to the magnificent 4 could once again turn the Ranch into gold, VoC and Great Park into lead. Chindians will work like a dog to afford the mortgage.
 
hmmm... interestingly enough i was talking to our realtor.  he said he called LA, and a different salesperson said they wouldnt be outside of looking at an offer at below list.  hmmm.. are the TIC lurkers reporting back to HQ?  He (my realtor) did say she added that they would be "more inclined" to add upgrades and packages that were "included" in the list price (which is better than the traditional incentive package that would drive up your final price).  They asked us to "send in" an offer. 

Who knows, maybe bitching on a forum does have its benefits...   
 
I think TIC salespeople will tell looky-loos there is no bargaining on price... but once they know you're motivated and are qualified, privately they'll have some hook-ups (which I assume they feel that way when a realtor with clients calls).

I remember the same tactics were used after the peak where once you are visiting the sales center enough... they'll start dealing with you to get you to make on offer on standing product or homes that fell out of escrow. I think at one point $200k was knocked off the price of a home (but these were in the $1mil+ range).
 
akim997 said:
hmmm... interestingly enough i was talking to our realtor.  he said he called LA, and a different salesperson said they wouldnt be outside of looking at an offer at below list.  hmmm.. are the TIC lurkers reporting back to HQ?  He (my realtor) did say she added that they would be "more inclined" to add upgrades and packages that were "included" in the list price (which is better than the traditional incentive package that would drive up your final price).  They asked us to "send in" an offer. 

Who knows, maybe bitching on a forum does have its benefits... 
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Will they?
The website says Cortona Plan 1 in LA is mid 800K, where as Maricopa Plan 1 in SG is low 800K, and both have identical plan, except for additional tech room for Cortona.
So, will they sell Cortona Plan 1 at say 800K, knowing the price of Maricopa?
If TIC take my offer of 750K, I will buy one right now.
 
Irvine_Dreamer said:
akim997 said:
hmmm... interestingly enough i was talking to our realtor.  he said he called LA, and a different salesperson said they wouldnt be outside of looking at an offer at below list.  hmmm.. are the TIC lurkers reporting back to HQ?  He (my realtor) did say she added that they would be "more inclined" to add upgrades and packages that were "included" in the list price (which is better than the traditional incentive package that would drive up your final price).  They asked us to "send in" an offer. 

Who knows, maybe bitching on a forum does have its benefits... 
Click to expand...
Will they?
The website says Cortona Plan 1 in LA is mid 800K, where as Maricopa Plan 1 in SG is low 800K, and both have identical plan, except for additional tech room for Cortona.
So, will they sell Cortona Plan 1 at say 800K, knowing the price of Maricopa?
If TIC take my offer of 750K, I will buy one right now.
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Well, keep in mind that the HOA/MR difference between the two is what, $350 per month?  You'd have to knock maybe close to $100k off the Cortona purchase price to truly make it even.  Though I don't think it'd go that far...  I mean unless you're saying LA is less desirable than SG now, all other things being equal.
 
shadax said:
Irvine_Dreamer said:
akim997 said:
hmmm... interestingly enough i was talking to our realtor.  he said he called LA, and a different salesperson said they wouldnt be outside of looking at an offer at below list.  hmmm.. are the TIC lurkers reporting back to HQ?  He (my realtor) did say she added that they would be "more inclined" to add upgrades and packages that were "included" in the list price (which is better than the traditional incentive package that would drive up your final price).  They asked us to "send in" an offer. 

Who knows, maybe bitching on a forum does have its benefits... 
Click to expand...
Will they?
The website says Cortona Plan 1 in LA is mid 800K, where as Maricopa Plan 1 in SG is low 800K, and both have identical plan, except for additional tech room for Cortona.
So, will they sell Cortona Plan 1 at say 800K, knowing the price of Maricopa?
If TIC take my offer of 750K, I will buy one right now.
Click to expand...

Well, keep in mind that the HOA/MR difference between the two is what, $350 per month?  You'd have to knock maybe close to $100k off the Cortona purchase price to truly make it even.  Though I don't think it'd go that far...  I mean unless you're saying LA is less desirable than SG now, all other things being equal.
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the gap between Uni and Northwood probably doesn't justify the premium they are charging for Laguna, nor it does not offset the perceived inferior location of Laguna (crossroad of 133 and 405) compared to SG with on-site elementary.
 
The Motor Court Company said:
... nor it does not offset the perceived inferior location of Laguna (crossroad of 133 and 405) compared to SG with on-site elementary.
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But LA is only "minutes" from Laguna Beach.

Hypothetical: Say they did not do the slight mods to LA's SFR floorplans... if LA's SFR prices were the exactly the same as Stonegate's which one do you think would sell faster?

My money is on the wok.
 
@ IHO:  I think you are correct.  I'm starting to push more now and making progress.  Back in 2008, we were actually negotiating with CalPAc on new Campanile homes.  My mom was doing a 1035x and put in some cash offers, which were all rejected.  Which sucked because they eventually sold the remaining homes for less than we originally offered (duh)...  (this experience helped build some of my neg perception of TIC)

I'll be honest.  If given a choice between LA and SG at the same price, its LA for sure.  What's the premium?  Not over $100K + 200/mo HOA + $150/mo MR.   

@ Irvine Dreamer - I think you are correct to assume that IPac is concious of both developments pricing.  Maricopa is $786 vs. Cortona 1 at $855.  Do I think they will sell for $750?  Not a chance.  Actually, the plan 1's for both communities are what is selling.  Its the plan 2s and 3s that don't sell.  If the current phase doesnt sell, I think you could try $825+some incentives or something.  If they were willing to sell it at $800K, I think they would move.
 
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