2012 New Home Speculation

[iacrenter]

So as 2011 is wrapping up, what can we expect for Irvine new home construction in 2012?

Here is my speculation list for 2012:
(Please comment, add, and or subtract from this list)

1) Cypress Village to open
--My guess, a B or C value village with higher density/attached products, lower price points, and less amenities versus Woodburyhttp://www.talkirvine.com/index.php?topic=1244.0http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php?topic=1282.0

2) Lambert Ranch to open
--Non-TIC guard gated development, all detached traditional SFR products.http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php?topic=1261.0

3) Portola Springs
--More phases to open, probably concentrating on attached products and/or motor court homes

4) Stonegate
--More phases to open, probably concentrating on attached products and/or motor court homes

5) Alderwood in Woodbridge
--Traditional detached SFR homes by William Lyon Homeshttp://www.talkirvine.com/index.php?topic=1283.0

6) Vista Verde in University Park
--Traditional detached SFR homes by William Lyon Homeshttp://www.talkirvine.com/index.php?topic=1288.msg14507#msg14507

 

[The Motor Court Company]

I agree with most of the list with the exception of Cypress Village. I don't think any builder other than TMCC will build in CV and currently TMCC has its hands full with its existing products being moved very slowly - the existing products already cover the full range of housing from low priced small attached condo in Santa Clara to 1 million+ SFR homes in San Marino and Laguna Altura. So there is little sense for them to build any thing in CV to compete against themselves.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

@iacrenter:

Nice thread idea.

I notice all your TIC projects predictions are either attached or motorcourt homes. Sadly... I think I agree with you.

I thought in the site plan for Lambert Ranch, I saw some motorcourt homes... I guess I need to re-check that.

I have no idea if Lyon's Alderwood or Vista Verde tracts are even going to break ground next year... seems they are still tied up in HOA tape.

 

[iacrenter]

@iacrenter:

Nice thread idea.

I notice all your TIC projects predictions are either attached or motorcourt homes. Sadly... I think I agree with you.

I thought in the site plan for Lambert Ranch, I saw some motorcourt homes... I guess I need to re-check that.

I have no idea if Lyon's Alderwood or Vista Verde tracts are even going to break ground next year... seems they are still tied up in HOA tape.

I'm not sure about the time table for Alderwood or Vista Verde. Hopefully the WB HOA accepts Alderwood--it would definitely add major value to a home purchase.

Here is a site map for LR--not sure how accurate it is. They all appear to be traditional SFR setup.

 

[iacrenter]

I agree with most of the list with the exception of Cypress Village. I don't think any builder other than TMCC will build in CV and currently TMCC has its hands full with its existing products being moved very slowly - the existing products already cover the full range of housing from low priced small attached condo in Santa Clara to 1 million+ SFR homes in San Marino and Laguna Altura. So there is little sense for them to build any thing in CV to compete against themselves.

My theory on CV is that TIC will rush to complete their low-middle tier villages before the floodgates open at the Great Park in 2013. TIC looks like they are using their usual playbook--rental apartments 1st and then build for-sale units next. OH can be put on the back burner since it will target a higher price point/different demographic.

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

Yes!!!!!!!! Land of pregnant women and parachute sons!

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Here is a site map for LR--not sure how accurate it is. They all appear to be traditional SFR setup.

Yeah... those all look like regular streets with sidewalks and driveways... thank you New Home Company. Do any of those look like they can be 3CWGs?

Note to TIC: You better start thinking about putting driveways AND streets back into your tract plans.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I'm not even sure if Cypress Village is going to have detached SFRs anymore... right now it looks like a sea of attached lumber.

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

Irvine Pacific is like the GM of Detroit. GM made some really good muscle cars from the 50s-60's. After the 70's recession GM made cost efficient economy cars. IP is doing the same by pumping out Chevelle, Pacer and Omni.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Irvine Pacific is like the GM of Detroit. GM made some really good muscle cars from the 50s-60's. After the 70's recession GM made cost efficient economy cars. IP is doing the same by pumping out Chevelle, Pacer and Omni.

My parent's first car after we moved from Europe to the US was a Pacer.  haha

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

TIC made another monumental error by putting Apts on Jeffrey side instead of Sand Canyon. Jeffrey is a goldmine/ FCB corridor within a walking distance to Asian eateries while Sand Canyon side should have been designated as rental because of the inferior location being under the shadows of Freeway overpaths and ramps. Homeless camps are often situated below freeway bridges and next to ramps not expensive homes.

I'm not even sure if Cypress Village is going to have detached SFRs anymore... right now it looks like a sea of attached lumber.

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

Irvine Pacific is like the GM of Detroit. GM made some really good muscle cars from the 50s-60's. After the 70's recession GM made cost efficient economy cars. IP is doing the same by pumping out Chevelle, Pacer and Omni.

My parent's first car after we moved from Europe to the US was a Pacer.  haha

Sounded like the perfect car for immigrants just like the IP homes.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Irvine Pacific is like the GM of Detroit. GM made some really good muscle cars from the 50s-60's. After the 70's recession GM made cost efficient economy cars. IP is doing the same by pumping out Chevelle, Pacer and Omni.

My parent's first car after we moved from Europe to the US was a Pacer.  haha

Sounded like the perfect car for immigrants just like the IP homes.

Guess IP is onto something.  haha

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Time is really flying by here.

I remember we were speculating about the 2011 Collection and I was all drooly over Laguna Altura which turned out to be a HUGE letdown.

I think PatStar is over a year out of Unicorn Land now and even our landlords have gone to greener pastures.

2012 will be interesting... we'll see how TIC responds to new developers in town.

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

Sounded like Corvette turned into a Chevette and Racer became a Pacer. Crossing downgraded to an Altura.

Time is really flying by here.

I remember we were speculating about the 2011 Collection and I was all drooly over Laguna Altura which turned out to be a HUGE letdown.

I think PatStar is over a year out of Unicorn Land now and even our landlords have gone to greener pastures.

2012 will be interesting... we'll see how TIC responds to new developers in town.

 

[Irvine_Dreamer]

My wishlist for 2012

2500 sf, detached SFR w/ driveway, 4 bd (1 downstair) 3 bt on Jeffrey side of SG
Low 700K

Am I asking for too much?
Come on TIC
Pleeease

 

[usctrojancpa]

My wishlist for 2012

2500 sf, detached SFR w/ driveway, 4 bd (1 downstair) 3 bt on Jeffrey side of SG
Low 700K

Am I asking for too much?
Come on TIC
Pleeease

My 8-ball says....not gonna happen (especially if you see what Maricopa home prices are).  The closest thing that they'll offer you in the low $700s is a 2,500sf attached motorcourt home with no driveway.

 

[IndieDev]

I knew Laguna Altura was going to bomb when they first announced the pricing. They basically took 2006 peak pricing from Quail Hill, added a gate, subtracted the views, and called it a day. It's like TIC isn't even trying to sell to non-Chindians anymore.

 

[usctrojancpa]

I remember we were speculating about the 2011 Collection and I was all drooly over Laguna Altura which turned out to be a HUGE letdown.

I think PatStar is over a year out of Unicorn Land now and even our landlords have gone to greener pastures.

I can remember telling you on OCR how disappointed you would be in Laguna Altura.  I think I was right? 

The moving truck carried us away from the unicorn one year ago this week, my friend.  We closed earlier than that, but it took a month or so of renovations to bring our model year 1997 3CWG classic up to 2010-spec pergraniteel. 

LA was over hyped kind of like the LSU/Alabama game was supposed to be the game of century....with no TDs, I think NOT! 

 

[usctrojancpa]

I knew Laguna Altura was going to bomb when they first announced the pricing. They basically took 2006 peak pricing from Quail Hill, added a gate, subtracted the views, and called it a day. It's like TIC isn't even trying to sell to non-Chindians anymore.

The mistake that TIC made is that they got too full of themselves with the success of the 2010 home collection that was juiced up via our tax money.  Guess they found out that with no more gov't sugar to go around, they couldn't sell those LA homes for 2006 Quail Hill prices without the Quail Hill views/layout.  They even had the nerve to try to squeeze more homes in there by eliminating a park that was on the original floor plan.  Just for that, they brought themselves some bad karma with the Jumbo Conforming limit dropping just about when they opened their model homes.    I wonder if anyone got the ax over at TIC for the missteps.