Woodbury East Opening July 11, 2009

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="cl1" date=1247618635][quote author="Gemini" date=1247614600]The main reason Asians are buying is because Irvine became the hub and center for "sexy" successful asians.



So if I am Asian, it would be no brainer for me to buy at these prices, as I am buying in a community that I can relate to and make many friends, and when my parents visit from asia, they can also have fun and relate to the community, instead of getting ignored by the white community.



Also my kids can grow up relating to their culture and not feeling different.



Also, I can rub it in the face of other asians who want to enjoy all this but cannot afford it.



G</blockquote>


I think if you are Asian you should not wait to buy in Irvine. Just look at all the people posting on this forum, most of whom are Asian renters waiting to buy in Irvine. (we could take a poll to confirm this). All this pent up demand!



Even if prices bottom in 2012, so what. "Bottom" means afterward it will go up again. What's the point in waiting if you can buy and enjoy now, and in 10 years prices will be equal or higher than today. You might pay a little more in taxes but avoid the "frenzi" at the bottom. Imagine the bidding wars that could develop when it is 2012 and everyone think it is the bottom! You don't want to be in one believe me.</blockquote>


The bottom will be quiet because all the knife catchers will spend themselves early. It is the declining prices on the way to the bottom that create a frenzy. What you witnessed at the sale of Woodbury East was a frenzy, and you are right, you don't want to be in a frenzy because you will overpay.



BTW, the pent up demand meme is nonsense: <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/desire-is-not-demand/">Desire is Not Demand</a>.
 
I would rather be buying on the way up from the bottom than on the way down to the bottom.



On the way down, you still don't know when the bottom will hit and how far it will fall... on the way up... it doesn't matter because you have all the information that you were trying to guess about before.
 
Well at least Panda is still here after he found out IR is not Asian.



Unfortunately, I do not think Mrs. Constanza is still reading the blog.





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Sorry IR.





edit: And to keep this thread on topic. I think its safe to say we (the IHB people) are the minority of the buying pool or potential buying pool. The majority are the ones who are putting those dang things into escrow on Ipo's site! Or the 200 people that showed up for 13 houses in Woodbury East. Not to mention the people you gotta hear saying "I think we have bottomed"
 
[quote author="cl1" date=1247618635][quote author="Gemini" date=1247614600]The main reason Asians are buying is because Irvine became the hub and center for "sexy" successful asians.



So if I am Asian, it would be no brainer for me to buy at these prices, as I am buying in a community that I can relate to and make many friends, and when my parents visit from asia, they can also have fun and relate to the community, instead of getting ignored by the white community.



Also my kids can grow up relating to their culture and not feeling different.



Also, I can rub it in the face of other asians who want to enjoy all this but cannot afford it.



G</blockquote>


I think if you are Asian you should not wait to buy in Irvine. Just look at all the people posting on this forum, most of whom are Asian renters waiting to buy in Irvine. (we could take a poll to confirm this). All this pent up demand!



Even if prices bottom in 2012, so what. "Bottom" means afterward it will go up again. What's the point in waiting if you can buy and enjoy now, and in 10 years prices will be equal or higher than today. You might pay a little more in taxes but avoid the "frenzi" at the bottom. Imagine the bidding wars that could develop when it is 2012 and everyone think it is the bottom! You don't want to be in one believe me.</blockquote>


So what exactly are your names & titles at TIC or William Lyon Homes? This way I can send Bren a thank you card ;-)
 
Just look at all the people posting on this forum, most of whom are Asian renters waiting to buy in Irvine.



Yeah, statement above does sound a little trollish to me.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1247621314]I would rather be buying on the way up from the bottom than on the way down to the bottom.



On the way down, you still don't know when the bottom will hit and how far it will fall... on the way up... it doesn't matter because you have all the information that you were trying to guess about before.</blockquote>


And you probably won't get exactly what you want since inventory will be tight. Maybe you don't remember the craziness of the boom years, but buying 'on the way up' is a nightmare.
 
how come nobody is comparing this place with columbus groove and square? at least they price it cheaper. I wonder how they will sell out the rest of the columbus stuff. drove by the other day and it seems like they are begining to build again.
 
[quote author="26w100k+" date=1247634668]



And you probably won't get exactly what you want since inventory will be tight. Maybe you don't remember the craziness of the boom years, but buying 'on the way up' is a nightmare.</blockquote>




Well, it was the craziness of the boom years and the "if you don't buy immediately prices will jump 20% next year!" attitude that got us into this mess in the first place, wasn't it?



I'd hate to see that mentality returning so soon. Would just mean we're re-inflating the bubble and writing the script for yet another housing bust in the immediate future.



Plus, inventories getting tighter than they are now means we're not going to see bottom.
 
This thread is unusual. why are so many new members and members of 2 years with few posts decided to be active in this thread. Your postings are insulting the intelligence of the regulars here and if you decide to troll pick another site to promote your cause. To do marketing here spend some time on the foreplay rather than coming all over this thread.
 
[quote author="26w100k+" date=1247634668][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1247621314]I would rather be buying on the way up from the bottom than on the way down to the bottom.



On the way down, you still don't know when the bottom will hit and how far it will fall... on the way up... it doesn't matter because you have all the information that you were trying to guess about before.</blockquote>


And you probably won't get exactly what you want since inventory will be tight. Maybe you don't remember the craziness of the boom years, but buying 'on the way up' is a nightmare.</blockquote>
The last bottom if I remember correctly was around 1996. Inventory was readily available and you can purchase homes easily for a quite a few years.



The craziness was during the end when exotic financing allowed prices to skyrocket since people could qualify for what they couldn't afford... this will not happen for quite a while so unless everyone is an FCB... it's not going to be that crazy.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1247658941]This thread is unusual. why are so many new members and members of 2 years with few posts decided to be active in this thread. Your postings are insulting the intelligence of the regulars here and if you decide to troll pick another site to promote your cause. To do marketing here spend some time on the foreplay rather than coming all over this thread.</blockquote>


I was trying to call it quits for the night but I just had to long back in because Bk just cracks me up with all his sexual references. Nice to see you've returned from Yosemite, in touch with nature and pose to teach the IHB karma sutra class.
 
I remember 1996, although still relatively young, I dont remember the frenzy of home buying. It was not in the everyday conversation. There weren't hundreds of cable/tv channels showing the stock market play by play analysis, telling you how to make money! I think the public has been educated to be more oportunist when the situation arises to make money. Maybe I wasnt at that age group before so I didnt notice it but I'm at that age group now where money is spoken in every other sentence.



With all this information technology changes and with the influx of homebuyers these days, do you people really think that there will be a time where inventory will be readily available again in IRVINE?



[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1247665241]

The last bottom if I remember correctly was around 1996. Inventory was readily available and you can purchase homes easily for a quite a few years.



The craziness was during the end when exotic financing allowed prices to skyrocket since people could qualify for what they couldn't afford... this will not happen for quite a while so unless everyone is an FCB... it's not going to be that crazy.</blockquote>
 
[quote author="rickhunter" date=1247700984]I remember 1996, although still relatively young, I dont remember the frenzy of home buying.

</blockquote>
Exactly. I don't think there will be a crazy frenzy on the way up from the bottom... lending is just too tight and by then, rates may be higher. There may be high demand from the people that have been waiting but there just aren't that many qualified (or fake qualified) buyers any more. The economy will still be bad and you can't buy a house if you don't have a job.

<blockquote>

With all this information technology changes and with the influx of homebuyers these days, do you people really think that there will be a time where inventory will be readily available again in IRVINE?

</blockquote>
For the reasons I stated above... yes. Inventory is actually available now, it's just overpriced. And believe me, once TIC sees the uptick in RE... Orchard Hills and Laguna Crossings are going to start pre-selling Phase 1 before you can say "escrow".
 
At today's Irvine area broker preview it was broadcast by a Title Rep that " there were 800 buyers for 12 Condo's in Irvine and they sold out in 15 min"... which I don't know is the case or not. The response from the Realtor crowd was as if the Cubs finally won the World Series with huzzah's and cheers abounding. Is it market psychology that drives this reaction or market psychosis?



My .02c



Soylent Green is People.
 
[quote author="Soylent Green Is People" date=1247708923]At today's Irvine area broker preview it was broadcast by a Title Rep that " there were 800 buyers for 12 Condo's in Irvine and they sold out in 15 min"... which I don't know is the case or not. The response from the Realtor crowd was as if the Cubs finally won the World Series with huzzah's and cheers abounding. Is it market psychology that drives this reaction or market psychosis?



My .02c



Soylent Green is People.</blockquote>
Haha Those damn realtors. I bet you most of them think good times are here again. lol
 
I was speaking with someone from work today, and he gave me the most plausible theory as to why TIC priced these units below comps.



By selling a very small phase very quickly at a below market cost, they generate a large amount of activity and "buzz." When the next phase is released, it too will be below market even though the prices will be higher. Thus they will have released two phases at increasing but below market prices generating "momentum" of price and sales. This surely looks like a bottom, and it allows them to raise prices in subsequent phases.



The theory is that when they reach the level of the current comps in phase 3 or 4, they have momentum to carry them through the project, even if that market is declining and the last phases may actually be priced over comps.
 
TIC is probably trying to feel the market out and going the safe route by pricing these units conservatively.

It's a wait and see approach and from what they saw, they can plan accordingly after each phase.

Isnt that the approach every builder uses? In a down market, up market?



I think you're reading too much into this...



[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1247729801]I was speaking with someone from work today, and he gave me the most plausible theory as to why TIC priced these units below comps.



By selling a very small phase very quickly at a below market cost, they generate a large amount of activity and "buzz." When the next phase is released, it too will be below market even though the prices will be higher. Thus they will have released two phases at increasing but below market prices generating "momentum" of price and sales. This surely looks like a bottom, and it allows them to raise prices in subsequent phases.



The theory is that when they reach the level of the current comps in phase 3 or 4, they have momentum to carry them through the project, even if that market is declining and the last phases may actually be priced over comps.</blockquote>
 
I thought of this thread when I watched this...



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<a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/housing-happiness/">HT to Barry</a>.
 
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