Woodbury Condo as a Home

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<p>Sorry if I misconstrued anything you said momopi. Not my intention. In any case... I could not agree more that $280k - $350k is a pretty good price for a 2/2 near UCI. Find me one of those babies and I will buy myself a new home tomorrow! Seriously, I am looking to buy near UCI or maybe westpark when I finally jump in.</p>

<p>I am not sure where you get the $400K - $500K number from. Is that the average for the 2 zip codes you mentioned? I look on the MLS for condos in westpark and near UCI all the time and rarely see 2 beds listed under $500K. Anyways, I got curious and just went on Zillow and found all the 2 bedroom condos I could that were recently sold and were less than .7 miles away from a home right at the intersection of Culver and Campus. I realize this isn't a perfect substitute for "near UCI", but I think it's a pretty good proxy and it made the earch a lot easier to do. All of these were sold since Aug, 2006. I did not cherry-pick the highest priced ones, I just took the most recent ones on the first two pages of results that came back.</p>

<p>The most recent 14 I found were:</p>

<p>19 Montanas Norte # 10


$622,500 12/11/2006 2 2.5 1,916 $324 -- $0 1974 0.51 mi </p>

<p>44 Georgetown # 34


$555,000 11/27/2006 2 2.5 1,451 $382 -- $0 1983 0.14 mi </p>

<p>17 Georgetown # 24


$535,000 11/21/2006 2 2.0 927 $577 -- $0 1983 0.19 mi </p>

<p>151 Oxford # 35


$505,000 11/09/2006 2 2.5 1,238 $407 -- $0 1983 0.22 mi </p>

<p>35 Lehigh Aisle # 133


$600,000 11/07/2006 2 2.0 1,605 $373 -- $0 1987 0.39 mi </p>

<p>107 Stanford Ct # 54


$530,000 09/15/2006 2 1.5 1,134 $467 -- $0 1985 0.68 mi</p>

<p>32 Stanford Ct # 16


$605,000 09/08/2006 2 3.0 1,356 $446 -- $0 1984 0.63 mi </p>

<p>1 Flores # 28


$570,000 09/07/2006 2 2.0 1,441 $395 -- $0 1975 0.64 mi </p>

<p>5 Dartmouth # 7


$680,000 08/29/2006 2 3.0 1,526 $445 -- $0 1981 0.15 mi </p>

<p>54 Lehigh Aisle # 91


$510,000 08/24/2006 2 2.0 1,017 $501 -- $0 1987 0.44 mi </p>

<p>83 Stanford Ct # 66


$520,000 08/22/2006 2 1.5 1,136 $457 -- $0 1985 0.67 mi </p>

<p>81 Exeter # 41


$494,000 08/18/2006 2 2.5 1,240 $398 -- $0 1969 -- </p>

<p>29 Dartmouth # 25


$690,000 08/11/2006 2 3.0 1,520 $453 -- $0 1981 0.10 mi </p>

<p>127 Oxford # 31


$450,000 08/07/2006 2 1.0 880 $511 -- $0 1983 0.22 mi </p>

<p>


The average selling price was $562,000. So, if one bought a 2 bedroom condo for $315,000 (the midpoint of your range) a few years from now, that would be a 44% drop. Sounds good to me. And keep in mind this would be a 44% drop from late 2006 prices. Most people agree the peak was mid 2005. Maybe we should get in touch then and look for deals together; me for a home and you for a rental investment!</p>
 
Hello,





I do MLS searches too. You can check web sites like homeseekers.com, homes.com, etc.





Zip code 92612 is next to UCI and tend to be more expensive. The 2 bed condos there are priced at $480k and up atm. 6 Columbia #2 listed at $480k and 14 Columbia #6 at $495k. Check zillow for estimated market value ($50k+ below asking), I think the owners are going to hate Zillow.





Zip code 92618 is over on Jeffery side (opposite of Unviersity), you can find cheap 2/2 condos at Orange Tree Terrace from $389k and up. If you want something newer, Oak Park (Oak Creek) is nice but pricy ($500k+).





Zip code 92614 is Woodbridge south, near 405 side. There are 28 two+ bed properties listed below $500k right now. They have a pretty lake, though not as nice as Mission Viejo.





The condos at Columbia Square, Orange Tree, and Woodbridge tend to have carports instead of real garages. If you're buying as a rental property, the tenants might not care. But if you're buying as a home, I think most people would prefer to have their own private garage. But you'd pay more for those units.



 
<p>I guess I should have read you post more carefully. You're right that if you expand the search to include all Irvine then there are lots of 2 beds in that range.</p>

<p>So I conceed that if prices fall 30%, AND you shop around and find a good deal, AND you manage to maintain a low vacancy rate, AND you have the resources to be cash flow negative for a few years while you wait for rents to rise , AND you hold for 20+ years, then is IS possible to make a decent profit by the time everything is said and done. But I think it's clear that the investment potential here is not so fantastic that investors are going to be "snapping places up" in large enough numbers to prop up prices in a falling market. That is why your previous statement offended my sensibilities a bit.</p>

<p>So much for the investors. For everyday home buyers, you claim "The benefit of waking up every morning in a house that you love and feeling good about it is more important than short-term depreciation." I think this is true for most people in a normal, non-bubble market. But right now that benefit is much, much more expensive than normal. Potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars per year more expensive.</p>

<p>For example:http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2007/01/thats-ok-well-just-ride-it-out.html</p>

<p>It seems that several upper middle class families in North San Diego will be paying about $2000 more than their neighbors every month for the next 30 years. I hope that they really, really enjoyed that extra few months of ownership. They will be paying for it a long time.</p>
 
Remember when you had to buy or be "priced out forever." It seems the new paradigm is buy now and be "priced in forever."





I quote I originally saw on Ben's blog.
 
<p>So, really, most of the $150,000 I put down on my current house, I made off the bubble on my first house. Even if my equity is greatly reduced I'm really in no worse position than I was when I started. </p>

<p>So, what was the right thing to do in all this? Obviously the most profitable thing would have been to sold at the height and bought back in when the market bottoms out. Just curious.</p>
 
<p>The IE was a little late to the Southern California bubble. Without even meaning to, you caught a good piece of that and got a great windfall. I congratulate you and your wife on your good fortune. And also for not settling for the IE and moving to Irvine. I grew up in Riverside County and couldn't wait to get out. </p>

<p>I think the choices you made were reasonable, given that you didn't really understand the bubble at the time (neither did I back in 2004). The good luck you have had will shield you from a lot of the pain that 2005 or 2006's first time buyers face.</p>
 
Hello,





Actually I have pretty specific requriements. In Irvine I'd prefer 2/2 condos near UCI, preferably walking distance to campus, or short drive distance, say near intersection of Jeffery and Alton but not out toward Jamboree. If RE prices fall by another 30% and other RE investors hold off, that'd be awesome for me. It means less competition, and I could shop for exactly what I want at leisure. So I have no incentive to convince anyone that my investment is a good one. O_O





Say if the condo I want falls to $350k price range and my cost of acquisition is $80k cash (down payment + fees). The $80k will buy you a BMW 6-series, which is great for picking up fobbish women but will end up costing you more. If you put it in a fund and it doubles every 7 years, in 21-22 years you'd have about 320k, minus income tax liability if you sell it. If you buy the condo and pay it off in 22 years, you'd own the property free and clear, plus positive cash flow from rental income (this will occur withinf first 10 years IMO), and if you chose to sell it at any time, you could use 1031-exchange to defer taxes. At least this is how I think, your thoughts may differ.





I work in the mutual fund industry and mainly invest in RE and funds. I don't expect 30% annual returns on funds, and I never buy RE with funny loans. For US RE I use 15 or 30 year fixed rate loans only. No ARM's. For people who are buying a "home", I recommend only buying what you can afford using standard 15 or 30-year fixed rate loans. I don't recommend adjustable rate loans, or buying anything that you cannot afford.





However, if you cannot realistically afford anything in the area, then go ahead and rent, then take your $ and invest in RE elsewhere. Find a cheaper place to buy rental / income property in the US and use the income to retire elsewhere. Many countries have retirement VISA avail and I think you only need to show $500/month pension to get one for Panama.



 
<p>"I don't expect 30% annual returns on funds, and I never buy RE with funny loans. For US RE I use 15 or 30 year fixed rate loans only. No ARM's. For people who are buying a "home", I recommend only buying what you can afford using standard 15 or 30-year fixed rate loans. I don't recommend adjustable rate loans, or buying anything that you cannot afford."</p>

<p>Well said. If everyone were sensible enough to follow this advice the bubble would never have happened. </p>
 
duplicitron, it sounds like you live in the same detached condo and floorplan as myself. congrats and welcome to the neighborhood. personally i love the layout of the place and the flexspace and patio is perfect for my dog.


as for the comments about the rental market, a neighbor of mine rented out their plan3 for $2900/mo a few months ago. it made me curious so i put some feelers out on craigslist to see what the plan1 would fetch and i received many inquiries at $2500/mo which covers my loan payments and taxes. in the end i decided to keep staying in my place as opposed to renting it out and moving home since, like you, the idea of my own home does have value to me.
 
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