1. QH/TR is booming these days and there are a lot of activities. Price is bouncing back fast. You also have a lot of competitions. The following Vicara and Turtle Ridge properties went into escrow in last 30 days. Some of them have been on the market for long time (180+ days)
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/39-Fresco-92603/home/5929315
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/47-Momento-92603/home/5929474
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Trumpet-Vine-92603/home/5901276
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/20-Cezanne-92603/home/5900781
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/23-Clouds-Pt-92603/home/5900983
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/51-Cezanne-92603/home/5900749
25 Garden Ter just sold for $2.175m full price. (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/25-Garden-Ter-92603/home/5901346)
2. The inventory is pretty low. Similarly a lot shady canyon properties in 2m-3m range are in short sales and they are in escrow within 30-day. You need to concentrate on premium area of Irvine like view properties in Vicara and Turtle Ridge. While Irvine has a lot of land to build, view properties are limited and the value will bounce fast. In my opinion, Northpark, westpark, Northwood, etc. are all on flat land, no views and in competition with each other and new development. The appreciation potential is much lower than QH/TR.
3. There are many cash buyers for QH/TR ($1.5m - $3m) as well. Interest rate won't matter much to them. As long as economy is not double dipping, QH/TR will not have double dipping as well. Also your offer shouldn't have contingency such as selling your house first. Loan contingency is OK.
4. I was also trying to buy a foreclosure property in QH/TR for myself directly at courthouse. Most of them got canceled due to loan modification or short sales. Even for properties that went into trustee sales, the open bids were high. Your best shot will be short sales. You are buying at 10-20% discount to market price. Even if market will go double dipping, you have 10-20% built-in equity as a buffer. I would suggest you work with some experienced agents in QH/TR for short sale opportunities. Try to find shadow inventory that is not on the MLS so that you have no competitions.
5. 29 Hidden Trl (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Hidden-Trl-92603/home/5927970) is bank owned and just went under contract. My agent told me there was a lot of traffic. The closing price of this property may be a barometer for QH/TR. If it closes below $1.5m, then the market is still weak. If it closes around or above $1.6m, then QH/TR market is very strong.
6. 101 Lattice (http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/101-Lattice-92603/home/5902687) was sold to an investor for $932k on Dec. 15th. The investor resold it for $1.11m within 3 months. This is also an indication of strong market in QH/TR.
