Widespread Declines According to S&P/Case-Shiller? Home Price Indices

[ipoplaya_IHB]

<p>I expanded the calculation of my "IPO-Shiller" index to cover all reported closes I have and came up with a value of around 214 for February and March sales:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.mht">http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.mht</a></p>

<p>The compositional mix of March closes brought the average up as there were more sales in newer areas that have been holding up better on average...</p>

<p>We are in July/August 2004 territory right now on average.</p>

 

[Anonymous_IHB]

<p>See bottom graph attibuted to IrrationalExuberance.com by <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/18/opinion/18tabarrok.html?_r=1&oref=slogin">http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/18/opinion/18tabarrok.html?_r=1&oref=slogin</a></p>

<p><img alt="" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/03/18/opinion/18opchart.large.gif" /></p>

 

[ipoplaya_IHB]

<p>At least for the small sample set I am tracking, the March CS index average number for Irvine/Tustin has moved below the February average:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.mht">http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.mht</a></p>

<p>Recent closes, even in Northpark, which had been holding a decent premium, are at mid 2004 price levels...</p>

 

[ipoplaya_IHB]

<p>January Case-Shiller data release:</p>

<p><a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_032544.pdf">http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_032544.pdf</a></p>

<p>LA metro area showing a 3.7% decrease for the month of January...</p>

<p>The tiered data for the LA MSA is interesting. For the lower and middle tiers, price declines off peak have been 21% and 20% respectively. The upper tier, which are homes $673K and above, is only off 14% or so from peak as of January.</p>

 

[ipoplaya_IHB]

<p>My Case-Shiller Irvine numbers moved to <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf</a></p>