Why are rent going down?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="zovall" date=1208981851]I swear I just saw them advertising The Village on TBS last night. Did they always do that?</blockquote>


saw that too... seen it a few times now but probably all within the last 2 months.
 
I saw it during Everybody Loves Raymond reruns the other day. Wonder if they will start aiming higher soon. I'll keep my eye out during Lost this week :)
 
Any thoughts on vacancy rates next year (around Feb-ish)...

It'd be nice to rent w/o needing a roommie - feel more grown up (but would have less savings)!



I'm drooling over the the sparkling pool, luscious tropical lanscaping, and ammenities galore on Craigslist right now.
 
The main determining factors for rents are supply of total housing and jobs. Supply of all new housing is pretty tame right now, but jobs are declining. A declining job base will result in declining rents. When the job base starts to expand again, rents will start to increase.



I don't think the back and forth between renters/foreclosures/homebuyers has too much of an impact. Ultimately that is just moving people around.
 
IAC is still bringing more apartments on line! next year, there will be a lot of inventory, i'm guessing.



<blockquote>Irvine?s residential permit total of 786 units accounted for two-thirds of all the new homes approved for construction this year so far (and 87% of the multi-family units). Fifty-three permits, or just under 5% of the homes, are in unincorporated areas, followed by 39 units in San Juan Capistrano (all but one of them multi-family units) and 36 in Stanton (of which 22 are multi-family units).</blockquote>




so 87% of 878 total MF is about 750 new MF units for 2008, plus whatever they built in 2007 (i'm guessing more)



http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/04/23/oc-homebuilding-permits-plunge-43/#more-2333
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1208996016][quote author="awgee" date=1208983243]Roo - What is your Avatar? It looks like a pier piling with something on it, but I can not tell.</blockquote>
Those would be starfish, awgee.</blockquote>


I see it now that you point it out. I couldn't tell either. I guess I watch too much Star Trek. I thought it was a Horta...



<img src="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/images/uploads/may2008/tmhorta.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="PeterUK" date=1208995032]Vic...there is a fine line between a hobby and mental illness...do you think we've crossed it yet? ;-/</blockquote>


Peter... I suppose being from the UK you don't believe that Americans can write good fiction (you strike me as a snob)



Anyway, there was a great book called "Catch-22" by Joseph Heller (don't rent the movie, waste of time)



Catch-22 says that if you think your mental, you can't be mental
 
I don't think rents are going down heavily because of flippers becoming floplords. Private property rentals are a very small portion of the rental market and I just dont see it affecting the general apartment market that aggressively.



Rather, I think its IACs own aggressive building and increased competition from non IAC properties out here. Just on Jamboree, you have 5 new communties coming up. That kind of volume does impact local rents. Also, as someone else pointed out, people double up and share places so the 1b's are getting killed.



PS: IAC has been flooding craigslist for years even when vacancy rates were all time lows...
 
Yep! I see all these new buildings but very little renters. What little renters IAC has might be going to better places. So they are dropping rates farther and farther as time goes on. I think they should buck up and purchase all these palces and create an even bigger empire... [Cue Darth Vader Breathing]



-bix
 
I just received my lease renewal for Woodbury Place, they did not raise the rent, left it at 2,480 (+100 for dogs). I just checked craigslist and they had it for 2,460, which was the same price listed on rental-living.com, so at least i feel like im not getting ripped off. We want to continue to have an attached two car garage (would consider having a one car attached garage if the savings were substantial) and from what I have seen I dont think I can same too much at another IAC complex since there is a premium for the attached garage. So right now it is looking like we will renew. They gave us a 10 or 12 month lease option for the same rent we pay now or we can go month to month and pay an extra $200. We will probably just end up renewing our lease. Although I may try to find a private rental with an actual yard for the dogs, since we pay $2,580 i figure we would be able to find a descent private rental in Irvine.



Does anyone know of a good website to find private rentals? Searching craigslist sucks since its all a IAC sh!t.
 
<blockquote>Does anyone know of a good website to find private rentals? Searching craigslist sucks since its all a IAC sh!t. </blockquote>


I would contact a realtor and get setup for MLS rental listings. It works really nicely and it won't cost you anything (except maybe the credit report fee.)



Good luck!
 
[quote author="alan" date=1209688137][quote author="PeterUK" date=1208995032]Vic...there is a fine line between a hobby and mental illness...do you think we've crossed it yet? ;-/</blockquote>


Peter... I suppose being from the UK you don't believe that Americans can write good fiction (you strike me as a snob)



Anyway, there was a great book called "Catch-22" by Joseph Heller (don't rent the movie, waste of time)



Catch-22 says that if you think your mental, you can't be mental</blockquote>


I'm more a fan of Salvadore Dali's line: <em><strong>"The only difference between me and a madman is that I am not mad."</strong></em>
 
[quote author="qwerty" date=1209705725]I just received my lease renewal for Woodbury Place, they did not raise the rent, left it at 2,480 (+100 for dogs). I just checked craigslist and they had it for 2,460, which was the same price listed on rental-living.com, so at least i feel like im not getting ripped off. We want to continue to have an attached two car garage (would consider having a one car attached garage if the savings were substantial) and from what I have seen I dont think I can same too much at another IAC complex since there is a premium for the attached garage. So right now it is looking like we will renew. They gave us a 10 or 12 month lease option for the same rent we pay now or we can go month to month and pay an extra $200. We will probably just end up renewing our lease. Although I may try to find a private rental with an actual yard for the dogs, since we pay $2,580 i figure we would be able to find a descent private rental in Irvine.



Does anyone know of a good website to find private rentals? Searching craigslist sucks since its all a IAC sh!t.</blockquote>


You can also check Realtor.com (under the rentals tab) that has all of the mls listings if you prefer to search without a Realtor.
 
Just within the last 2 months, the unit above, below, and across from us all became vacant. Within my building of 24 units, I know of 6 units that are empty right now.
 
There also appears to be a MASSIVE movement of people OUT of California. Jobs, real estate, cost of living, etc... you name it. Even the illegals are leaving, and that should tell you all you need to know.



Less people + tons of vacancies = freefalling rents.



Oh, and that won't help property values out either. :)
 
[quote author="Masterofdamoney" date=1209783352]There also appears to be a MASSIVE movement of people OUT of California. Jobs, real estate, cost of living, etc... you name it. Even the illegals are leaving, and that should tell you all you need to know.



Less people + tons of vacancies = freefalling rents.



Oh, and that won't help property values out either. :)</blockquote>


I suspect there is a lot of this going on as well. I can't find any recent government stats. Maybe U-Haul has a good indicator. I expected a spike in rents as foreclosed homeowners moved into rentals and their REOs sat vacant. Eventually there would be a decline in rents and prices, but I fully expected a short-term spike. The only thing I can think is that foreclosed homeowners and others are simply leaving the state. Thus we have falling rents, falling home prices and increased vacancy.
 
[quote author="alan" date=1209688137][quote author="PeterUK" date=1208995032]Vic...there is a fine line between a hobby and mental illness...do you think we've crossed it yet? ;-/</blockquote>


Peter... I suppose being from the UK you don't believe that Americans can write good fiction (you strike me as a snob)



Anyway, there was a great book called "Catch-22" by Joseph Heller (don't rent the movie, waste of time)



Catch-22 says that if you think your mental, you can't be mental</blockquote>


Alan, a Snob is someone who is condescending or overbearing to others, do I come across that way?



I have no clue as to whether or not Americans write good fiction, I don't read Books and probably go to the Movies 4 times a year, the last 3 were Shrek, Ratattoulie and, erm...oh yes, Bucket list.



I've never thought about it before now but I prefer reality.
 
I just bought Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium because I missed it in the theater, which I only bring up because I'm old and it's kind of a kids movie.



BTW, Little Chef says "holla".
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top