Where's the best place to blow $1 million on an SFR in Irvine?

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IndieDev said:
To be honest, I'm surprised the prices have been this sticky. Irvine must be the Knifecatcher capital of the world.
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We all know this isn't true based off of the 2010 new home collection sales.  I'm ready to drop 800k on a good sized SFR, but can't find one!  If there are always people like me around the Irvine marketplace, does it make us all knifecatchers?
 
waitin4ever said:
I believe the reason is probably because the job losses in irvine wasn't as bad as other places, so people have
holding on power. But I could be wrong.
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Well... the mortgage companies in Irvine would say the job losses were pretty bad.

But, yes, I do think that unemployment had less an effect on Irvine buyers than other areas. Especially if you paid all cash for a home... a job loss would be less catastrophic. While the IHB likes to paint Irvine as the zero loan/max HELOC epicenter... I think that more homes have lower or zero mortgages in Irvine than other cities (speculation wholly mine).
 
woodburyowner said:
IndieDev said:
To be honest, I'm surprised the prices have been this sticky. Irvine must be the Knifecatcher capital of the world.
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We all know this isn't true based off of the 2010 new home collection sales.  I'm ready to drop 800k on a good sized SFR, but can't find one!  If there are always people like me around the Irvine marketplace, does it make us all knifecatchers?
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Your screen name says "woodburyowner", if you bought in 2004 - 2008, you would be a knife catcher since many of those properties are selling for lower than their original sale price. So it all depends.

Using 2010 TIC sales isn't really relevant. It hasn't been long enough to determine whether those home prices will hold steady or drop. Funny thing is, I've seen some 2009, and 2010 Woodbury and PS properties that are still unsold after several months. If those start getting price drops, you've got equity killers, and in sequence, a lot of knife catchers.
 
waitin4ever said:
It really is amazing that prices in irvine at one point had gone upto >500/sq ft. Now prices are around
275 (portola homes) to around 340 (montecarmelsonoma collection). even taking the high end of 340.

The prices today are about 30-35% lower than peak. Although it appears that Irvine is holding steady.

I believe the reason is probably because the job losses in irvine wasn't as bad as other places, so people have
holding on power. But I could be wrong.


IndieDev said:
True, and at that price, someone still took a $200,000+ bath.

It's the Irvine market. It's completely out of whack with local rents and incomes.

To be honest, I'm surprised the prices have been this sticky. Irvine must be the Knifecatcher capital of the world.
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It depends on the zip code, some zip codes in Irvine have seen some average prices rise (92620 which encompasses new homes in Woodbury, PS, etc), but other zip codes have shown weakness with 3-5% drops YOY.

What I do know is that Irvine inventory compared to this time last year is up, and prices are overall down. That doesn't show me that the Irvine market is stable, but then again, maybe I'm wrong, and $400/sqft prices are coming back in force.  :D
 
There is yet good in you Anakin.  My parents went to SC, but I chose Westwood over da hood.  Location, location, location  ;) 

USCTrojanCPA said:
iheartdebt said:
A nice Trojan huh?  You must not be in Ladera... oops, just playin'...  Are you finding that your aforementioned buyers fit the type that I think I'm seeing, shopping in the SFR $900-1M segment?

I think you're right as to the options that remain.  QH and TR felt a little impersonal the times I visited.  Would consider Woodbridge, but like I said previously, laziness.  Newer homes and older cars, not the other way around, for me.

USCTrojanCPA said:
Welcome iheartdebt.  You aren't the only person who is frustrated with finding a 4bd/3ba home build after 1990.  I have a handful of Irvine buyers who are having no luck at finding what they are looking for right now.  I'm hoping that the inventory levels for these homes begins to pick up soon.  The fact is that most of the homes in Irvine are condos and townhomes so there aren't that many 4bd/3ba homes (especially now ones).  Areas like Quail Hill and Turtle Ridge command a steep premium for the type of home you are looking for.  Northpark, Northwood Pointe, Northwood II, and Woodbury sound like they might be your best options.  Good luck on your search!
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Could be that I'm really a Brojan since I went to undergrad at UCLA.  haha  The buyers that I do speak of have a budget of $650k to over $1m.  To say that they are frustrated is an understatement.  Most all of them want properties built in the 90s or earlier so that reduces the inventory that much more.
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Don't forget that your $275 and $340 calculations are for new homes sans landscaping and/or upgrades.

waitin4ever said:
It really is amazing that prices in irvine at one point had gone upto >500/sq ft. Now prices are around
275 (portola homes) to around 340 (montecarmelsonoma collection). even taking the high end of 340.

The prices today are about 30-35% lower than peak. Although it appears that Irvine is holding steady.

I believe the reason is probably because the job losses in irvine wasn't as bad as other places, so people have
holding on power. But I could be wrong.


IndieDev said:
True, and at that price, someone still took a $200,000+ bath.

It's the Irvine market. It's completely out of whack with local rents and incomes.

To be honest, I'm surprised the prices have been this sticky. Irvine must be the Knifecatcher capital of the world.
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IndieDev said:
At that price, someone is taking a $343,000 bath too. Insane.
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Even at $999k, that is still quite a bit above its original 2004 $710k price.

The perma-bears kept saying we would see 1999-2003 prices in Irvine... I would settle for the 2004 price.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
IndieDev said:
At that price, someone is taking a $343,000 bath too. Insane.
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Even at $999k, that is still quite a bit above its original 2004 $710k price.

The perma-bears kept saying we would see 1999-2003 prices in Irvine... I would settle for the 2004 price.
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Sticky prices my friend.

But also consider that it's a $999,999 short sale has been on market for over 6 months. This will probably end up as an REO.
 
What I don't understand is how these 2-car garage small downstairs Olivos plans even sold for more than $1mil only 2 years after they were selling at $700k.

At least the Tapestry models have tandem garages and multiple downstairs (and upstairs) living spaces.

It's why I didn't buy in QH in 2005... they just didn't compare to the 3CWGs at the same price in other areas of Irvine.
 
For sure.  The 04 price is looking great compared against how many people have fared in the equities market over the same timeframe.

irvinehomeowner said:
IndieDev said:
At that price, someone is taking a $343,000 bath too. Insane.
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Even at $999k, that is still quite a bit above its original 2004 $710k price.

The perma-bears kept saying we would see 1999-2003 prices in Irvine... I would settle for the 2004 price.
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irvinehomeowner said:
What I don't understand is how these 2-car garage small downstairs Olivos plans even sold for more than $1mil only 2 years after they were selling at $700k.

At least the Tapestry models have tandem garages and multiple downstairs (and upstairs) living spaces.

It's why I didn't buy in QH in 2005... they just didn't compare to the 3CWGs at the same price in other areas of Irvine.
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The detached condos in QH are big sellers for a lot of Chindians apparently. I toured the Olivos plan last year (a short sale), and there were 3 other families in the house with me (all Chindian).
 
Manic speculation, leverage and ultra loose lending, what's not to understand?  You didn't buy because internally, it just didn't feel right.  Others weren't so fortunate and did not have the proper experience/perspective and lacked a functioning BS meter (obviously, as the really reckless ones are capable of BS'ing themselves).

For what it's worth, I am familiar with several RE agents who are deep underwater, or short sold.  That's really pathetic, putting on display for all to see that they don't understand their own product.  Perhaps one bright spot is that agents that did the right thing over the past few years have gained credibility, and I hope those types are rewarded.

irvinehomeowner said:
What I don't understand is how these 2-car garage small downstairs Olivos plans even sold for more than $1mil only 2 years after they were selling at $700k.

At least the Tapestry models have tandem garages and multiple downstairs (and upstairs) living spaces.

It's why I didn't buy in QH in 2005... they just didn't compare to the 3CWGs at the same price in other areas of Irvine.
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iheartdebt said:
For sure.  The 04 price is looking great compared against how many people have fared in the equities market over the same timeframe.
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Shhh... dont tell indiedev this, he still hasn't realized it yet.
 
That might make sense if my portfolio was heavily invested into non-performing equities, because if it was, I might be in the market for $400,000 condos like you, test. ;)
 
This didn't work 2 months ago, at a price slightly over the top end of your range.  Will be watching to see what it does in 2011.  In hindsight, too small for my needs, but would make a fine place at $925k for someone who places the serene location at a premium.

frank69m said:
You guys know where I stand.

Go offer 940k on this. You can probably settle on 960-970k.....
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/114-Treehouse-92603/home/5902490
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Interesting read on the blog today at IHB. More evidence to consider holding off on your higher end purchase:http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/high-end-home-prices-falling-in-orange-county/

At the 75th percentile ? the median of the upper half of the price spectrum of local homes for sale ? the selling price was $640,873; that is down 1.1% vs. the previous month and off 11.5% vs. a year ago. Over two years, there?s been an 11.9% tumble in prices asked for higher-end housing. This is the 7th consecutive month-to-month cut in asking prices for these less ?affordable? homes.
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IR is also hedging a bit for new home Irvine sales:
I believe new home sales will continue to do well, although the price increases and sales volumes will not meet the Irvine Company's expectations. The dreamers still clinging to bubble values will continue to see erosion of their perceived value. Asking prices will keep falling and the bubble clearance sale will finally get started.
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That graph IR put up for for Irvine home supply probably includes all homes. Does anyone know how the supply trend for $900K+ Irvine homes over the last 4 years?
 
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