Where the market is - Buyer Offers

[usctrojancpa]

Got this home for my buyer on Friday...
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/59-Trailwood-92620/home/4789076

Home had almost 20 offers.  We went $2,055,000 right off the bat and escalated up to $2.11m but are actually in escrow for $2.1m.  What's interest is that the highest offer was over $2.1m but the listing agent said my buyer was stronger (higher down payment) and I wrote a much cleaner offer (removing most contingencies and a 7 day removal of all of them) plus she looked up my activity and liked how many homes in Irvine I've listed and helped buyers to purchase.  It also helped that I chatted her up at the open house asking about if she would take the escalation clause and communicating with her very timely when she and her seller had questions.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Got a home for another buyer on Sunday....
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/23-Deer-Trak-92618/home/7203714

This home had about a dozen offers on it.  I've worked with this listing agent before on a few very smooth transactions in the past so he was open to guiding me on the sales price along with allowing us to use an escalation clause on the price.  They countered the top buyers for best and final price, including my buyer, and we countered back at $2.2m with an escalation clause for $10,000 higher than the highest offer/counter.  Listing agent sent me the highest offer of $2,200,000 and my clients were happy to go up to $2,210,000. 

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Got a home for another buyer on Sunday....
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/23-Deer-Trak-92618/home/7203714

This home had about a dozen offers on it.  I've worked with this listing agent before on a few very smooth transactions in the past so he was open to guiding me on the sales price along with allowing us to use an escalation clause on the price.  They countered the top buyers for best and final price, including my buyer, and we countered back at $2.2m with an escalation clause for $10,000 higher than the highest offer/counter.  Listing agent sent me the highest offer of $2,200,000 and my clients were happy to go up to $2,210,000.

Nice.

The Irvine power. Congrats to all.

Lack of inventory will persist a lot longer than we believe.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

And we have snow in Irvine today.

Wow.

 

[Cares]

And we have snow in Irvine today.

Wow.

Irvine real estate cooling down...literally.  ;D

 

[usctrojancpa]

And we have snow in Irvine today.

Wow.

Irvine real estate cooling down...literally.  ;D

Yeah, I saw the hail driving on the toll road from Baker Ranch back to Tustin Ranch....crazy indeed.

 

[eyephone]

And we have snow in Irvine today.

Wow.

Irvine real estate cooling down...literally.  ;D

Global Warming

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I remember when people were against me when I said any time is actually a good time to buy if you can afford it because you can't accurately time the market, now all those people who were waiting for the big slowdown are wishing they listened.

But no one will admit it.

You are talking as if this cycle has already ended.

As I said... I don't make predictions.

I have no idea where we are going, even though rates are rising, inventory is not... and isn't "The Great Slowdown" like 3-4 years late?

Who is wishing they bought a few years ago instead of waiting?

Any time is a good time to buy if you've done the math and can handle the risk.

 

[Liar Loan]

I remember when people were against me when I said any time is actually a good time to buy if you can afford it because you can't accurately time the market, now all those people who were waiting for the big slowdown are wishing they listened.

But no one will admit it.

You are talking as if this cycle has already ended.

As I said... I don't make predictions.

I have no idea where we are going, even though rates are rising, inventory is not... and isn't "The Great Slowdown" like 3-4 years late?

Who is wishing they bought a few years ago instead of waiting?

Any time is a good time to buy if you've done the math and can handle the risk.

This is a ridiculous statement.  You started on IHB when people were losing homes in droves due to buying at the wrong time.

Lots of people are bad at math and even worse at assessing risk.  They implicitly trust their realtors and mortgage brokers for advice, but unfortunately, sales people only have one mantra: "Anytime is a great time to buy."

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I remember when people were against me when I said any time is actually a good time to buy if you can afford it because you can't accurately time the market, now all those people who were waiting for the big slowdown are wishing they listened.

But no one will admit it.

You are talking as if this cycle has already ended.

As I said... I don't make predictions.

I have no idea where we are going, even though rates are rising, inventory is not... and isn't "The Great Slowdown" like 3-4 years late?

Who is wishing they bought a few years ago instead of waiting?

Any time is a good time to buy if you've done the math and can handle the risk.

This is a ridiculous statement.  You started on IHB when people were losing homes in droves due to buying at the wrong time.

Lots of people are bad at math and even worse at assessing risk.  They implicitly trust their realtors and mortgage brokers for advice, but unfortunately, sales people only have one mantra: "Anytime is a great time to buy."

Your statement is just as ridiculous because it counters exactly what I said... do the math and assess the risk. If people are bad at that, then they shouldn't buy.

You just want to be a contrarian because you agree with me but don't want to admit it.

Just because YOUR prediction of pain never happened... don't be mad.

 

[sgip]

"Any time is a good time to buy" "if you've done the math and can handle the risk."

The slogan is false. The modifier is truth.

My .02c

 

[Liar Loan]

I remember when people were against me when I said any time is actually a good time to buy if you can afford it because you can't accurately time the market, now all those people who were waiting for the big slowdown are wishing they listened.

But no one will admit it.

You are talking as if this cycle has already ended.

As I said... I don't make predictions.

I have no idea where we are going, even though rates are rising, inventory is not... and isn't "The Great Slowdown" like 3-4 years late?

Who is wishing they bought a few years ago instead of waiting?

Any time is a good time to buy if you've done the math and can handle the risk.

This is a ridiculous statement.  You started on IHB when people were losing homes in droves due to buying at the wrong time.

Lots of people are bad at math and even worse at assessing risk.  They implicitly trust their realtors and mortgage brokers for advice, but unfortunately, sales people only have one mantra: "Anytime is a great time to buy."

Your statement is just as ridiculous because it counters exactly what I said... do the math and assess the risk. If people are bad at that, then they shouldn't buy.

You just want to be a contrarian because you agree with me but don't want to admit it.

Just because YOUR prediction of pain never happened... don't be mad.

I didn't think it possible, but this statement of yours is even more ridiculous.  Of course, I don't agree with you. 

Your position is the equivalent of cheering people on for making the worst mistake of their lives.  Today's buyers are buying at the worst possible moment.  It's the bottom of the 9th with two outs.  They are going to be similar to the 2006-07 buyers who also did their own math and assessed the risk, and then proceeded to lose their homes.

The only difference this time is home prices are even higher than 2007 on an inflation-adjusted basis.  The price:income ratio is also higher than 2007.  The thing bridging the gap between the highest real home prices of all time and incomes is the proliferation of easy money (ie cheap debt).  This regime works fine until the price of debt goes through the roof and this year it has already risen dramatically, and is projected to keep increasing until inflation is back under some semblance of control.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Wow... get over your disdain for me and Irvine and use some logic.

There are buyers who bought in 2006-07 and they are just fine today because they could afford their payments and could stay more than the X amount of years it took to recover. They are probably in a pretty good position because they refinanced lower and have more equity than people who bought during whenever you said there was a "slowdown" in Irvine (2018?).

You keep ignoring my caveat (or modifier as SGIP put it).

If you can't understand that... your reading comprehension is worse than akula's.

Haters gonna hate.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Wow... get over your disdain for me and Irvine and use some logic.

There are buyers who bought in 2006-07 and they are just fine today because they could afford their payments and could stay more than the X amount of years it took to recover. They are probably in a pretty good position because they refinanced lower and have more equity than people who bought during whenever you said there was a "slowdown" in Irvine (2018?).

You keep ignoring my caveat (or modifier as SGIP put it).

If you can't understand that... your reading comprehension is worse than akula's.

Haters gonna hate.

This is a good example of your statement:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/23-Deer-Trak-92618/home/7203714

Purchased in 2009 1Million, live in the property and put their kids through decent schools and sold 13 years later for more than double.

If anybody follow idiots advice to time the market, they will only see prices goes higher in a rental apartment. Fools will will be fools.

 

[CalBears96]

Wow... get over your disdain for me and Irvine and use some logic.

There are buyers who bought in 2006-07 and they are just fine today because they could afford their payments and could stay more than the X amount of years it took to recover. They are probably in a pretty good position because they refinanced lower and have more equity than people who bought during whenever you said there was a "slowdown" in Irvine (2018?).

You keep ignoring my caveat (or modifier as SGIP put it).

If you can't understand that... your reading comprehension is worse than akula's.

Haters gonna hate.

I bought a home in Lake Elsinore at the end of 2005, which was the real peak, then bought another one in 2006 in Eastvale, and I still have both houses now. It's like you said, I did the math and could handle the risk, so we're doing just fine. And guess what, I'm buying in Irvine RIGHT NOW.  ;D I guess I'm just great at buying at the peak.  Fortunately, I'll be selling both of those homes this summer.

 

[Liar Loan]

Wow... get over your disdain for me and Irvine and use some logic.

There are buyers who bought in 2006-07 and they are just fine today because they could afford their payments and could stay more than the X amount of years it took to recover. They are probably in a pretty good position because they refinanced lower and have more equity than people who bought during whenever you said there was a "slowdown" in Irvine (2018?).

You keep ignoring my caveat (or modifier as SGIP put it).

If you can't understand that... your reading comprehension is worse than akula's.

Haters gonna hate.

I bought a home in Lake Elsinore at the end of 2005, which was the real peak, then bought another one in 2006 in Eastvale, and I still have both houses now. It's like you said, I did the math and could handle the risk, so we're doing just fine. And guess what, I'm buying in Irvine RIGHT NOW.  ;D I guess I'm just great at buying at the peak.  Fortunately, I'll be selling both of those homes this summer.

I bought my first primary in 2006 as well, and I did asses the risks beforehand.  Because we didn't stretch to buy and were very conservative with our loan amount, we were able to weather the storm as well, but still, would I have preferred to avoid a 60% loss?  Of course.  And yet, I know many other friends and family that lost their homes through short sales or walking away, and others that were in a desperate situation financially until their modifications came through.  It would have been in all of our best interests not to buy at that time.

If I'm providing an "alternative" perspective here that isn't based on sunshine and roses, it's precisely because I want to point out the risks of buying into this market.  Nobody else on this forum seems to do that anymore.  Real estate is a very emotional purchase for most people and often times they don't take the time to assess the risks.  They are blinded by their dream of owning the perfect home and aren't capable of thinking rationally about the situation.

 

[usctrojancpa]

I remember when people were against me when I said any time is actually a good time to buy if you can afford it because you can't accurately time the market, now all those people who were waiting for the big slowdown are wishing they listened.

But no one will admit it.

You are talking as if this cycle has already ended.

As I said... I don't make predictions.

I have no idea where we are going, even though rates are rising, inventory is not... and isn't "The Great Slowdown" like 3-4 years late?

Who is wishing they bought a few years ago instead of waiting?

Any time is a good time to buy if you've done the math and can handle the risk.

This is a ridiculous statement.  You started on IHB when people were losing homes in droves due to buying at the wrong time.

Lots of people are bad at math and even worse at assessing risk.  They implicitly trust their realtors and mortgage brokers for advice, but unfortunately, sales people only have one mantra: "Anytime is a great time to buy."

Your statement is just as ridiculous because it counters exactly what I said... do the math and assess the risk. If people are bad at that, then they shouldn't buy.

You just want to be a contrarian because you agree with me but don't want to admit it.

Just because YOUR prediction of pain never happened... don't be mad.

I didn't think it possible, but this statement of yours is even more ridiculous.  Of course, I don't agree with you. 

Your position is the equivalent of cheering people on for making the worst mistake of their lives.  Today's buyers are buying at the worst possible moment.  It's the bottom of the 9th with two outs.  They are going to be similar to the 2006-07 buyers who also did their own math and assessed the risk, and then proceeded to lose their homes.

The only difference this time is home prices are even higher than 2007 on an inflation-adjusted basis.  The price:income ratio is also higher than 2007.  The thing bridging the gap between the highest real home prices of all time and incomes is the proliferation of easy money (ie cheap debt).  This regime works fine until the price of debt goes through the roof and this year it has already risen dramatically, and is projected to keep increasing until inflation is back under some semblance of control.

Do you seriously think real estate will have the same kind of meltdown that it did back in the Great Recession?  You do realize that most all loans have been fully underwritten with no BS ninja loans.  Not only that, but I would tell you that today's buyers are much stronger financially and putting more % down then buyers back in 2003-2007.  There is a severe housing shortage out there and that has been reflected in home prices and record sales volume.  Can home prices dip?  Sure, but we aren't crashing unless some serious shock happens.  I always tell buyers...you should only buy if you are looking to live in the current home for the next 5+ years because I don't know what home prices will do in the short term but I know that they will go over the intermediate and longer term.

 

[Liar Loan]

If anybody follow idiots advice to time the market, they will only see prices goes higher in a rental apartment. Fools will will be fools.

There's a difference between timing the market and refusing to buy something that is not priced in line with fundamentals.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Wow... get over your disdain for me and Irvine and use some logic.

There are buyers who bought in 2006-07 and they are just fine today because they could afford their payments and could stay more than the X amount of years it took to recover. They are probably in a pretty good position because they refinanced lower and have more equity than people who bought during whenever you said there was a "slowdown" in Irvine (2018?).

You keep ignoring my caveat (or modifier as SGIP put it).

If you can't understand that... your reading comprehension is worse than akula's.

Haters gonna hate.

I bought a home in Lake Elsinore at the end of 2005, which was the real peak, then bought another one in 2006 in Eastvale, and I still have both houses now. It's like you said, I did the math and could handle the risk, so we're doing just fine. And guess what, I'm buying in Irvine RIGHT NOW.  ;D I guess I'm just great at buying at the peak.  Fortunately, I'll be selling both of those homes this summer.

I bought my first primary in 2006 as well, and I did asses the risks beforehand.  Because we didn't stretch to buy and were very conservative with our loan amount, we were able to weather the storm as well, but still, would I have preferred to avoid a 60% loss?  Of course.  And yet, I know many other friends and family that lost their homes through short sales or walking away, and others that were in a desperate situation financially until their modifications came through.  It would have been in all of our best interests not to buy at that time.

If I'm providing an "alternative" perspective here that isn't based on sunshine and roses, it's precisely because I want to point out the risks of buying into this market.  Nobody else on this forum seems to do that anymore.  Real estate is a very emotional purchase for most people and often times they don't take the time to assess the risks.  They are blinded by their dream of owning the perfect home and aren't capable of thinking rationally about the situation.

Ahh, you?re projecting.

Didn?t you say that property eventually recovered value?

Most Irvine properties bought in 06-07 recovered by 2013? even more so now.

So no losses to reminisce about.

 

[teddybear]

Do you end up making money with both places if you sell now? Home prices in Riverside county has finally catch up after 15+ years. You?d made $300-400k if you bought these during the housing bottom in 2009-2011. Good things that you can make payments all these years. Im pretty sure are are tons of unlucky fews who lost their jobs and foreclosed or short sell their house even when they had done the math and thought that they can handle the risk. I bought during both low and peak market and have experienced 50% dropped  in prices as well 100% appreciation. Bottom line, buy in a good area and hopefully one can ride out during the downturn.
[/quote]

I bought a home in Lake Elsinore at the end of 2005, which was the real peak, then bought another one in 2006 in Eastvale, and I still have both houses now. It's like you said, I did the math and could handle the risk, so we're doing just fine. And guess what, I'm buying in Irvine RIGHT NOW.  ;D I guess I'm just great at buying at the peak.  Fortunately, I'll be selling both of those homes this summer.
[/quote]