When would be next housing Bottom?

[irvinehomeowner]

This will validate IHO?s ?homes need to have separate rooms? mantra. Great rooms are not conducive to zoom calls. 

A buddy of mine does his video calls in his backyard because he needs the privacy... but it's not very big because you can see the back wall is so close to him. Gotta love Irvine, no driveway, no separate rooms, small backyards.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Read the first page and the last pages of this thread and you can see how wrong people were (even me).

Unless you want to argue for a "massive" bottom between 2019 and 2020.

This graph was the best:

That was LL's own attachment where he was trying to prove that Irvine prices have gone down since 2018.

Where's Waldo? I can't find those lower prices from 2018 on that graph... maybe it's after 2020... oh wait.... Irvine prices went even higher.

 

[Liar Loan]

IHO-

You were wrong when you claimed Irvine only declined 15% in 2008. 
You were wrong to claim Irvine went up in value in 2019. 
And you will be wrong yet again about the current housing downturn.

If you want to live in a state of denial about reality, nobody can stop you, but it will lead to subpar decision making in your life.

 

[CalBears96]

Liar Loan lies. What's new?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

IHO-

You were wrong when you claimed Irvine only declined 15% in 2008. 
You were wrong to claim Irvine went up in value in 2019. 
And you will be wrong yet again about the current housing downturn.

If you want to live in a state of denial about reality, nobody can stop you, but it will lead to subpar decision making in your life.

Lies until you show me where I made these claims.

- 15% was for the housing I was looking at.
- Don't ever recall saying prices went up from 2019 but if I cherry pick like you... aren't prices right now all up from 2019?

Maybe Loser Loan is another good name for you.

 

[Liar Loan]

IHO-

You were wrong when you claimed Irvine only declined 15% in 2008. 
You were wrong to claim Irvine went up in value in 2019. 
And you will be wrong yet again about the current housing downturn.

If you want to live in a state of denial about reality, nobody can stop you, but it will lead to subpar decision making in your life.

Lies until you show me where I made these claims.

- 15% was for the housing I was looking at.
- Don't ever recall saying prices went up from 2019 but if I cherry pick like you... aren't prices right now all up from 2019?

Maybe Loser Loan is another good name for you.

You just posted a graph yesterday that says "Looks like prices have gone up since 2018??" and now you deny it.  Haha...

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Wow. Your lying is epic.

Look at the graph, from 2018 to March 2020, were prices higher or lower? Doesn't matter what happened in between... I can't travel back in time.

Cherry Picking Loan is another good name.

 

[Liar Loan]

Look at the graph...

From mid-2018 to year end 2020, prices in Irvine declined.  That graph doesn't encompass the full period of declines.  And 2.5 years of downward price movement is hardly cherry picking.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Look at the graph...

From mid-2018 to year end 2020, prices in Irvine declined.  That graph doesn't encompass the full period of declines.  And 2.5 years of downward price movement is hardly cherry picking.

Beginning of 2018 to the middle of 2019 we saw a mini spike in prices of about 5% and then prices gave up that increase and prices came back down to beginning of 2018 levels.  Prices in 2019 were basically flat throughout the entire year as prices went up about 2-3% from the beginning of 2019 to the middle of 2019 and then came back down to the same level at the beginning of 2019.  These are median price per SF numbers and when the variance is 2-3% I don't call that statistically significant as housing mix can move that number around (attached versus detached sales). 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Look at the graph...

From mid-2018 to year end 2020, prices in Irvine declined.  That graph doesn't encompass the full period of declines.  And 2.5 years of downward price movement is hardly cherry picking.

Are you sure you are looking at the graph?

I think you mean mid-2019 not "mid-2018" and if you look at the context of the original posts (but that means you can't move the goal posts), beginning of (or March) 2018 to MARCH 2020 (when YOU posted that graph), clearly shows an increase in pricing.

What you are doing is exactly cherry picking... and badly because you can't even keep your times straight.

Please buy a new pair of glasses and take an online graphing course.

 

[Liar Loan]

Look at the graph...

From mid-2018 to year end 2020, prices in Irvine declined.  That graph doesn't encompass the full period of declines.  And 2.5 years of downward price movement is hardly cherry picking.

Are you sure you are looking at the graph?

I think you mean mid-2019 not "mid-2018" and if you look at the context of the original posts (but that means you can't move the goal posts), beginning of (or March) 2018 to MARCH 2020 (when YOU posted that graph), clearly shows an increase in pricing.

What you are doing is exactly cherry picking... and badly because you can't even keep your times straight.

Please buy a new pair of glasses and take an online graphing course.

I'm talking about what actually happened based on multiple data sources and the accounts of our local TI realtors, USC and Cares.  Granted, USC has been a little bit squishy when you try to pin him down about it, but he admits there was a price decline and his PPSF chart clearly shows it as well.  Redfin, Zillow, and OCHN also confirm the Irvine price decline over that time.

Of course, the median price chart you posted above is affected by sales mix and by Zillow's proprietary method of calculating the median price, which should be taken into account when discussing the graph.  You can't just look at a line and make declarations about it without understanding what calculations went into it.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Uh... that was YOUR chart.

I understand the variables that go into median pricing but you don't like to take them into account unless it favors your narrative.

Cherry picking not only the timeline but now the methodology? Keep dancing!!!

 

[Liar Loan]

No matter which timeline, analysis, or data set you choose, they all tell the same story - Irvine home owners lost equity from 2018-2020.  Higher rates plus the disappearance of SALT kneecapped Irvine.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

No matter which timeline, analysis, or data set you choose, they all tell the same story - Irvine home owners lost equity from 2018-2020.  Higher rates plus the disappearance of SALT kneecapped Irvine.

And you say Irvine owners are blinded by emotions.

You should move on... TalkIrvine is clearly not for you... it's turned you into blathering source of misinformation. No one believes you anymore... which is why you keep posting other people's charts/comments because you lost all of your own credibility.

You can't even counter anything without lying... it's really sad.

Good luck with your non-Irvine home... bad timing and all.

 

[Portolaresident]

https://www.tollbrothers.com/nse?st=california-san-diego&st=california-los-angeles&st=california-orange-county

Lol, didn't know over pricing homes by 30-40% then reducing the price by 50-100K or offering the closing cost or some cheap upgrades are considered NATIONAL SALE EVENT.  Can't wait to see where the housing market is headed, wondered what happened to their cash buyers.  This reminds of 2015 when I bought my first condo in Portola, the builder gave 10K in discount, paid the closing cost and another 10K worth of upgrade.  Still, housing market is way overvalued. What goes up, must come down.

 

[Liar Loan]

No matter which timeline, analysis, or data set you choose, they all tell the same story - Irvine home owners lost equity from 2018-2020.  Higher rates plus the disappearance of SALT kneecapped Irvine.

And you say Irvine owners are blinded by emotions.

You should move on... TalkIrvine is clearly not for you... it's turned you into blathering source of misinformation. No one believes you anymore... which is why you keep posting other people's charts/comments because you lost all of your own credibility.

You can't even counter anything without lying... it's really sad.

Good luck with your non-Irvine home... bad timing and all.

Your posts are filled with emotion and mine are filled with facts.  I have no financial stake in Irvine, so it's your biases that are clouding your vision.

 

[The Motor Court Company]

I think the fear and panic has start to spread?mortgage rates jumping, stock market dropping, everyone talking about inflation and recession?.Irvine won?t be immune and price can easily go back to end of 2021 levels.

No matter which timeline, analysis, or data set you choose, they all tell the same story - Irvine home owners lost equity from 2018-2020.  Higher rates plus the disappearance of SALT kneecapped Irvine.

And you say Irvine owners are blinded by emotions.

You should move on... TalkIrvine is clearly not for you... it's turned you into blathering source of misinformation. No one believes you anymore... which is why you keep posting other people's charts/comments because you lost all of your own credibility.

You can't even counter anything without lying... it's really sad.

Good luck with your non-Irvine home... bad timing and all.

Your posts are filled with emotion and mine are filled with facts.  I have no financial stake in Irvine, so it's your biases that are clouding your vision.

 

[CalBears96]

No matter which timeline, analysis, or data set you choose, they all tell the same story - Irvine home owners lost equity from 2018-2020.  Higher rates plus the disappearance of SALT kneecapped Irvine.

And you say Irvine owners are blinded by emotions.

You should move on... TalkIrvine is clearly not for you... it's turned you into blathering source of misinformation. No one believes you anymore... which is why you keep posting other people's charts/comments because you lost all of your own credibility.

You can't even counter anything without lying... it's really sad.

Good luck with your non-Irvine home... bad timing and all.

Your posts are filled with emotion and mine are filled with facts.  I have no financial stake in Irvine, so it's your biases that are clouding your vision.

You LIE.

Your posts are NOT filled with facts. Your posts are filled with misinformation and cherry picking. You can't seem to differentiate between facts and your opinions.

 

[zovall]

Irvine won?t be immune and price can easily go back to end of 2021 levels.

 

[Liar Loan]

No matter which timeline, analysis, or data set you choose, they all tell the same story - Irvine home owners lost equity from 2018-2020.  Higher rates plus the disappearance of SALT kneecapped Irvine.

And you say Irvine owners are blinded by emotions.

You should move on... TalkIrvine is clearly not for you... it's turned you into blathering source of misinformation. No one believes you anymore... which is why you keep posting other people's charts/comments because you lost all of your own credibility.

You can't even counter anything without lying... it's really sad.

Good luck with your non-Irvine home... bad timing and all.

Your posts are filled with emotion and mine are filled with facts.  I have no financial stake in Irvine, so it's your biases that are clouding your vision.

You LIE.

Your posts are NOT filled with facts. Your posts are filled with misinformation and cherry picking. You can't seem to differentiate between facts and your opinions.

I'm the only one that has told you the truth from the beginning - that home prices were in for a correction.  You chose to act borderline crazy whenever I brought this up, most recently claiming that it was you, in fact, that predicted lower home prices.  Do you think anybody really believes that?

The truth is I was the only one saying this 5-6 months ago.  Others have come around to my view of things... which is great!  My objective to help others see the market more clearly has been achieved.

You are free to post your own data and facts to counter mine, but you've always chosen instead to take the low road.  That is a fact.