When would be next housing Bottom?

[irvinehomeowner]

?Severe damage?.... nice sensationalism.

What?s the opposite of shill?

You can argue with USC if last to decline is a myth, he has worked in Irvine real estate much longer than Larry.

 

[Mety]

I personally think the RE market will be where it's at for awhile. A few pluses and minuses, but should be flat-ish for some time. I don't think any drastic ups or downs are coming any time soon. This could be good news for some folks since the price was just going too high too fast especially in Irvine. People's income should be compatible with the home price to be able to purchase IMHO.

But last time, I guessed the housing would go down about 25% or more, which didn't happen. So it's only my guess.

 

[Liar Loan]

?Severe damage?.... nice sensationalism.

What?s the opposite of shill?

You can argue with USC if last to decline is a myth, he has worked in Irvine real estate much longer than Larry.

I'm looking forward to seeing his data.  As you know, I'm very data driven in my analysis.  Perhaps Zillow, Redfin, and OC Housing News are all wrong.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

?Severe damage?.... nice sensationalism.

What?s the opposite of shill?

You can argue with USC if last to decline is a myth, he has worked in Irvine real estate much longer than Larry.

I'm looking forward to seeing his data.  As you know, I'm very data driven in my analysis.  Perhaps Zillow, Redfin, and OC Housing News are all wrong.

I've proven to you in the past, with your own data, that Irvine is slower to decline and faster to recover. Even compared it to your "safe harbors" of Newport Beach and others. You even experienced that in your own out of Irvine purchase vs my Irvine purchase.

As much as you like to say others are in their own fantasy Irvine world... you are definitely in yours, even when the data shows you otherwise. Continue to rail against Irvine as much as you like, it's amazing to see how to you try to spin things year after year and fall flat once the dust settles.

Why do you think Larry and even OCReg/Jomathan Lasner stopped trying to do Irvine schadenfreude?

 

[irvinebullhousing]

I hope Larry pulled out of all his Las Vegas puts, that place is an inferno now going forwards. All the hotels and businesses are in flames.

Larry was betting heavily on housing in Vegas after 2010.

I hopes he does well.

 

[usctrojancpa]

I hope Larry pulled out of all his Las Vegas puts, that place is an inferno now going forwards. All the hotels and businesses are in flames.

Larry was betting heavily on housing in Vegas after 2010.

I hopes he does well.

Yeah, Vegas is heavily tied to the casino/gaming industry and that will be one of the last things to come back as the City relies on travel/tourism.

 

[Liar Loan]

I hope Larry pulled out of all his Las Vegas puts, that place is an inferno now going forwards. All the hotels and businesses are in flames.

Larry was betting heavily on housing in Vegas after 2010.

I hopes he does well.

Yeah, Vegas is heavily tied to the casino/gaming industry and that will be one of the last things to come back as the City relies on travel/tourism.

I believe the investment funds liquidated their properties some time ago and repaid investors, but his personal holdings he intended to keep for the long haul to provide an income for his son. 

He'll probably suffer some rent disruptions, but his DTI is either really low due to when he purchased, or perhaps he owns everything free and clear.  Larry was big on not carrying debt.  If that's the case, then it's just a matter of weathering the storm.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

I hope Larry pulled out of all his Las Vegas puts, that place is an inferno now going forwards. All the hotels and businesses are in flames.

Larry was betting heavily on housing in Vegas after 2010.

I hopes he does well.

Yeah, Vegas is heavily tied to the casino/gaming industry and that will be one of the last things to come back as the City relies on travel/tourism.

I believe the investment funds liquidated their properties some time ago and repaid investors, but his personal holdings he intended to keep for the long haul to provide an income for his son. 

He'll probably suffer some rent disruptions, but his DTI is either really low due to when he purchased, or perhaps he owns everything free and clear.  Larry was big on not carrying debt.  If that's the case, then it's just a matter of weathering the storm.

So now you resort to the argument of holding and waiting it out? How much has Irvine drop since 2010 to now? I will let you do the math. 

 

[Dr. CA Real Estate]

I would hope people learned from Detroit to no longer invest so heavily in an area which depends so much on one lifeline. Then again people never learn to not keep up with the jones and live paycheck to paycheck so..

 

[Liar Loan]

I hope Larry pulled out of all his Las Vegas puts, that place is an inferno now going forwards. All the hotels and businesses are in flames.

Larry was betting heavily on housing in Vegas after 2010.

I hopes he does well.

Yeah, Vegas is heavily tied to the casino/gaming industry and that will be one of the last things to come back as the City relies on travel/tourism.

I believe the investment funds liquidated their properties some time ago and repaid investors, but his personal holdings he intended to keep for the long haul to provide an income for his son. 

He'll probably suffer some rent disruptions, but his DTI is either really low due to when he purchased, or perhaps he owns everything free and clear.  Larry was big on not carrying debt.  If that's the case, then it's just a matter of weathering the storm.

So now you resort to the argument of holding and waiting it out? How much has Irvine drop since 2010 to now? I will let you do the math. 

I don't see where my post about Larry was making an argument.  My only point was that he has options because of when he bought and how small his debt ratio probably is in relation to his investments. 

Irvine has not dropped in price since 2010, just since 2018.  It took you guys awhile to embrace reality on this, but I think you're almost there.

Meanwhile the rest of Orange County has continued to appreciate in value until recently.  I have sold three properties in the past eight months and purchased one.  You do the math.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

What metric are you using now? Ppsf or median price?

Or whatever fits your narrative?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So where is this data other than OCHN ppsf that shows Irvine is down the last 2 years?

Just checked Redfin and it says both median price and ppsf are up since last year.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Giiiinnnnnaaaa, now we going to put more tarrrriiiifffffs on Giiiinnnnnnaaa, and mass exodus for Irvine and we going to have Giiiiinnnnna pay for the virus.......


Did I say Giiiiinnnnnna going to pay for the virus.


Wait, did we have Mexico pay for the walls. Never mind.

 

[usctrojancpa]

?Severe damage?.... nice sensationalism.

What?s the opposite of shill?

You can argue with USC if last to decline is a myth, he has worked in Irvine real estate much longer than Larry.

I'm looking forward to seeing his data.  As you know, I'm very data driven in my analysis.  Perhaps Zillow, Redfin, and OC Housing News are all wrong.

I've been looking at the data a bit deeper and will provide additional data to provide more in depth analysis as to work I'm seeing happening. There's a lot of moving parts in the Irvine market, some good and some bad.

 

[Liar Loan]

Uh oh... The Irvine housing shills are coming out in full force.  Here is the pre-COVID Irvine price decline according to Redfin. 

Notice that Irvine peaked two years ago, while the rest of Orange County did not.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So you have found a metric that favors your narrative.

Ppsf is even less accurate than median pricing.

Maybe you should have used average lot size, that has gone down in Irvine as well.

 

[Liar Loan]

Notice how IHO cites Redfin data.  I respond with Redfin data.  Then he accuses me of choosing the metric that favors my narrative.  @!@!@RIBSPLITTER DELUXE@!@!@

NEWS FLASH: Irvine median price is also TANKING over the past 12 months!

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Notice how IHO cites Redfin data.  I respond with Redfin data.  Then he accuses me of choosing the metric that favors my narrative.  @!@!@RIBSPLITTER DELUXE@!@!@

What I cited was Redfin said both PPSF and median price were up over last year.
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

Home Prices in Irvine
Average over the last month
$880K
Sale Price
+4.3% since last year
$482
Sale $/Sq. Ft.
+3.5% since last year

NEWS FLASH: Irvine median price is also TANKING over the past 12 months!

According to Redfin it isn't.

But let's address your classic LL goalpost move. This is what you said:

Irvine has not dropped in price since 2010, just since 2018.  It took you guys awhile to embrace reality on this, but I think you're almost there.

Oh really? Let's use your own graph:

And if you take a look at *your* Zillow (why didn't you stay with Redfin?) graph, if 2018 was the start of the slowdown, why have Irvine prices not been lower since then?

Maybe you should stick with the biased OCHN data.

 

[Dr. CA Real Estate]

Notice how IHO cites Redfin data.  I respond with Redfin data.  Then he accuses me of choosing the metric that favors my narrative.  @!@!@RIBSPLITTER DELUXE@!@!@

What I cited was Redfin said both PPSF and median price were up over last year.
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

Home Prices in Irvine
Average over the last month
$880K
Sale Price
+4.3% since last year
$482
Sale $/Sq. Ft.
+3.5% since last year

NEWS FLASH: Irvine median price is also TANKING over the past 12 months!

According to Redfin it isn't.

But let's address your classic LL goalpost move. This is what you said:

Irvine has not dropped in price since 2010, just since 2018.  It took you guys awhile to embrace reality on this, but I think you're almost there.

Oh really? Let's use your own graph:

And if you take a look at *your* Zillow (why didn't you stay with Redfin?) graph, if 2018 was the start of the slowdown, why have Irvine prices not been lower since then?

Maybe you should stick with the biased OCHN data.

If you're using graphics for an online argument, its not worth your energy bro

 

[Agent Joe]

I am in the camp of believing Irvine's RE prices holding up better than most other areas. A lot of homes in Irvine were bought with cash or huge down payments. Demographics play a role as well.

If you are buying and holding RE in Irvine or anywhere in OC for that matter for 20+years, you will likely do well. If you're flipping or speculating, any appreciation <10% is meaningless and likely not worth your time after you factor in the selling costs.