When would be next housing Bottom?

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irvinehomeowner said:
Not sure how you are getting that conclusion. What were you looking at that supports that "under-performance" because I've been tracking Woodbridge for the last 10-15 years and for SFRs, they seem to skew higher than like-age areas like Northwood, Deerfield and Westpark I. Just like Irvine, central location and the flakes provide a premium. You could find several 3CGW homes in Northwood during the trough in the low $800ks, much harder to do that in Woodbridge.
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Deerfield is part of El Camino which I already said was under-performing Woodbridge.
Westpark has performed slightly better than Woodbridge from what I've seen.
I was comparing Woodbridge to its surrounding villages. Northwood is not a surrounding village. Not nitpicking but this is significant because I know a lot of people like us who work near SNA would not consider anything east of the 5.
Every village west of the 5 except for Walnut/El Camino has done better than Woodbridge from what I've seen.
 
Kenkoko said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Not sure how you are getting that conclusion. What were you looking at that supports that "under-performance" because I've been tracking Woodbridge for the last 10-15 years and for SFRs, they seem to skew higher than like-age areas like Northwood, Deerfield and Westpark I. Just like Irvine, central location and the flakes provide a premium. You could find several 3CGW homes in Northwood during the trough in the low $800ks, much harder to do that in Woodbridge.
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Deerfield is part of El Camino which I already said was under-performing Woodbridge.
Westpark has performed slightly better than Woodbridge from what I've seen.
I was comparing Woodbridge to its surrounding villages. Northwood is not a surrounding village. Not nitpicking but this is significant because I know a lot of people like us who work near SNA would not consider anything east of the 5.
Every village west of the 5 except for Walnut/El Camino has done better than Woodbridge from what I've seen.
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It's not what I've seen.

So I checked Redfin data, these are the averages from lowest to highest based on $/sf and only for neighborhoods adjacent to Woodbridge.

Sold within the last 1 year:

Westpark $758k 3br/2.5ba 1669sf $448/sf
El Camino Real $740k 3br/2ba 1435sf $462/sf
University Park $845k 3br/2ba 1896sf $482/sf
Oak Creek $550k 2br/2ba 1153sf $486/sf
Woodbridge $735k  3br/2.25ba 1471sf $492/sf

Last 3 years:

El Camino Real $700k 3br/2ba 1517sf $425/sf
Westpark $707k 3br/2.5ba 1604sf $443/sf
Oak Creek $540k 2br/2ba 1166sf $455/sf
Woodbridge $670k 3br/2ba 1411sf $464/sf
University Park $787k 3br/2ba 1714sf $468/sf

Of those, Westpark is probably the closest comparison in housing stock, age, and proximity and Woodbridge is higher. I actually expected Uni Park to be higher because of the Uni High school zone but it's only slightly higher in the 3 year and lower in the 1 year.

Since I was only talking about SFRs, I was curious so I did a breakdown by just choosing 'House/4br+' and this is what I got for last 3 years:

University Park $948k 4/2.5 2346sf $412/sf
El Camino Real $878k 4/2.75 2170sf $413/sf
Oak Creek $1.088m 4/3 2648sf $442/sf
Westpark $1.141m 4/3 2490sf $449/sf
Woodbridge $1.186m 4/3 2400sf $481/sf

Surprisingly, Uni Park is the lowest here... but Woodbridge is significantly higher for the last 3 years for 4br SFRs so the data seems to agree with my observations.

I just know that there are several non-3CWG SFRs that have sold in Woodbridge way higher than I would expect.
 
Kenkoko said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Not sure how you are getting that conclusion. What were you looking at that supports that "under-performance" because I've been tracking Woodbridge for the last 10-15 years and for SFRs, they seem to skew higher than like-age areas like Northwood, Deerfield and Westpark I. Just like Irvine, central location and the flakes provide a premium. You could find several 3CGW homes in Northwood during the trough in the low $800ks, much harder to do that in Woodbridge.
Click to expand...
Deerfield is part of El Camino which I already said was under-performing Woodbridge.
Westpark has performed slightly better than Woodbridge from what I've seen.
I was comparing Woodbridge to its surrounding villages. Northwood is not a surrounding village. Not nitpicking but this is significant because I know a lot of people like us who work near SNA would not consider anything east of the 5.
Every village west of the 5 except for Walnut/El Camino has done better than Woodbridge from what I've seen.
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Whole alot of blah blah blah and no back up. At least "from what I've seen".
 
irvinehomeowner said:
It's not what I've seen.

So I checked Redfin data, these are the averages from lowest to highest based on $/sf and only for neighborhoods adjacent to Woodbridge.

Sold within the last 1 year:

Westpark $758k 3br/2.5ba 1669sf $448/sf
El Camino Real $740k 3br/2ba 1435sf $462/sf
University Park $845k 3br/2ba 1896sf $482/sf
Oak Creek $550k 2br/2ba 1153sf $486/sf
Woodbridge $735k  3br/2.25ba 1471sf $492/sf

Last 3 years:

El Camino Real $700k 3br/2ba 1517sf $425/sf
Westpark $707k 3br/2.5ba 1604sf $443/sf
Oak Creek $540k 2br/2ba 1166sf $455/sf
Woodbridge $670k 3br/2ba 1411sf $464/sf
University Park $787k 3br/2ba 1714sf $468/sf

Of those, Westpark is probably the closest comparison in housing stock, age, and proximity and Woodbridge is higher. I actually expected Uni Park to be higher because of the Uni High school zone but it's only slightly higher in the 3 year and lower in the 1 year.

Since I was only talking about SFRs, I was curious so I did a breakdown by just choosing 'House/4br+' and this is what I got for last 3 years:

University Park $948k 4/2.5 2346sf $412/sf
El Camino Real $878k 4/2.75 2170sf $413/sf
Oak Creek $1.088m 4/3 2648sf $442/sf
Westpark $1.141m 4/3 2490sf $449/sf
Woodbridge $1.186m 4/3 2400sf $481/sf

Surprisingly, Uni Park is the lowest here... but Woodbridge is significantly higher for the last 3 years for 4br SFRs so the data seems to agree with my observations.

I just know that there are several non-3CWG SFRs that have sold in Woodbridge way higher than I would expect.
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting the actual data. It's definitely surprising to me especially the Uni Park part.

Now that you proved Woodbridge prices are amazingly high, how about the Caucasian part? I never lived in Woodbridge but I see plenty of non Caucasians when I do go there.
 
Kenkoko said:
irvinehomeowner said:
It's not what I've seen.

So I checked Redfin data, these are the averages from lowest to highest based on $/sf and only for neighborhoods adjacent to Woodbridge.

Sold within the last 1 year:

Westpark $758k 3br/2.5ba 1669sf $448/sf
El Camino Real $740k 3br/2ba 1435sf $462/sf
University Park $845k 3br/2ba 1896sf $482/sf
Oak Creek $550k 2br/2ba 1153sf $486/sf
Woodbridge $735k  3br/2.25ba 1471sf $492/sf

Last 3 years:

El Camino Real $700k 3br/2ba 1517sf $425/sf
Westpark $707k 3br/2.5ba 1604sf $443/sf
Oak Creek $540k 2br/2ba 1166sf $455/sf
Woodbridge $670k 3br/2ba 1411sf $464/sf
University Park $787k 3br/2ba 1714sf $468/sf

Of those, Westpark is probably the closest comparison in housing stock, age, and proximity and Woodbridge is higher. I actually expected Uni Park to be higher because of the Uni High school zone but it's only slightly higher in the 3 year and lower in the 1 year.

Since I was only talking about SFRs, I was curious so I did a breakdown by just choosing 'House/4br+' and this is what I got for last 3 years:

University Park $948k 4/2.5 2346sf $412/sf
El Camino Real $878k 4/2.75 2170sf $413/sf
Oak Creek $1.088m 4/3 2648sf $442/sf
Westpark $1.141m 4/3 2490sf $449/sf
Woodbridge $1.186m 4/3 2400sf $481/sf

Surprisingly, Uni Park is the lowest here... but Woodbridge is significantly higher for the last 3 years for 4br SFRs so the data seems to agree with my observations.

I just know that there are several non-3CWG SFRs that have sold in Woodbridge way higher than I would expect.
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting the actual data. It's definitely surprising to me especially the Uni Park part.

Now that you proved Woodbridge prices are amazingly high, how about the Caucasian part? I never lived in Woodbridge but I see plenty of non Caucasians when I do go there.
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Here you go.
https://statisticalatlas.com/neighborhood/California/Irvine/Woodbridge/Race-and-Ethnicity
 
shahshah said:
Whole alot of blah blah blah and no back up. At least "from what I've seen".
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Did you bring anything valuable to the discussion?

shahshah said:
i have a friend with three SFR in woodbridge purchased purchase after that in 2016, 2017 and 2017. all of the have appreciated quite well.
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You did not even bother to back up your own post with any data. At least I posted an actual transaction with a valid Redfin link.

 
Kenkoko said:
shahshah said:
Whole alot of blah blah blah and no back up. At least "from what I've seen".
Click to expand...

Did you bring anything valuable to the discussion?

shahshah said:
i have a friend with three SFR in woodbridge purchased purchase after that in 2016, 2017 and 2017. all of the have appreciated quite well.
Click to expand...

You did not even bother to back up your own post with any data. At least I posted an actual transaction with a valid Redfin link.
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Would just be easier to link the trends for Woodbridge:
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Woodbridge-Irvine/783/market-trends/
 
@IC: Whoah, thanks for the link, I didn't know Trulia broke their trends down by neighborhood. That's brings a whole new aspect to #VillageWars. :)

@kenkoko: I'm wondering if they are counting Persian/Middle East in their 'White' category... if so, that would make sense why Uni Park is so high. As for the particular segment of non-FCB caucasians that I'm referring to that lend to that Woodbridge price bubbleness, if you ever lived there... you would know.

This is why I feel that personal experience does have even as much value as actual data because data may not show the particulars (although IC may be able to find a site that breaks down that 'White' segment to reveal this mystery demographic).

But I do value your own observations, which hoods and what kind of product did you see that were performing better than Woodbridge?
 
We are looking at 850k-950k for a 1031 exchange. Looked at pretty much all the villages older than Woodbury.
The homes we saw in Woodbridge, around this price range, were mostly large attached homes with 3-4 bedrooms. These Woodbridge homes that we saw did trade at slightly lower $/sqft compared to what we saw in Uni Park, Oak Creek. West park homes we saw tend to be smaller in SQFT leading to slightly higher sqft than Woodbridge.

It was never apples to apples comparison. I know your data would indicate otherwise but it really did not seem to us that Woodbridge was trading at any sort of premium.
 
Kenkoko said:
I know your data would indicate otherwise but it really did not seem to us that Woodbridge was trading at any sort of premium.
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It's okay, I'm not going to be hard on you about what the data says because I do understand that personal experience can have different results.

That's actually why I looked it up because I thought what I saw may have been different from what the market was doing. Some of Westpark I SFRs were built around the same time as Woodbridge's newer hoods, and from what I saw, those same floorplans tend to trade higher for Woodbridge. As I've said, it depends on what stock you are looking for and that usually defines your perception of what pricing is.
 
Wow..that Quail Hill condo that sold at 910k was such a bargain i would think. That detached condo had so many nice upgrades.  I am thinking that owner put on market kinda late in the summer cycle.  I just hope that that price of 910k is an anomaly and not a trend.
 
I'm seeing mostly 850k-1100k+ home on the market at present on Redfin for 3bd and 4bd SFR detached resale market not backing to a main road or less than 4000 sqft lot size. Of course outliners in the east part of El camino. That does not seem like any kind of drop off to me?
 
Irvinehomeseeker said:
Wow..that Quail Hill condo that sold at 910k was such a bargain i would think. That detached condo had so many nice upgrades.  I am thinking that owner put on market kinda late in the summer cycle.  I just hope that that price of 910k is an anomaly and not a trend.
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Been seeing this kind of bargain at different villages this past month.

Cypress Village detached condo sold for 930k. Previous comps were over 1.05mil just 3-4 months agohttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/60-Rockcress-92618/home/112722299#overview

Northpark single story SFR sold for 910k. Previous comps were over 1mil.https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/14-Saintsbury-92602/home/5858183#overview

University Park SFR sold for 900k. Previous comp was 980k in september/octoberhttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/4601-Green-Tree-Ln-92612/home/4702678#overview

Woodbury detached condo sold for 900k.https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/71-Great-Lawn-92620/home/7210911
 
shahshah said:
I'm seeing mostly 850k-1100k+ home on the market at present on Redfin for 3bd and 4bd SFR detached resale market not backing to a main road or less than 4000 sqft lot size. Of course outliners in the east part of El camino. That does not seem like any kind of drop off to me?
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Because you are looking at the listing prices of unsold homes instead of sold prices. High listing prices from unrealistic sellers are not good indicators of where the market is at.

Just look at the 910k sold home in Quail Hill. The listing price was 1.07 mil  :o
 
OCLuvr said:
Reviving the thread. Any new predictions?
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Prices are still down compared to last year's high.
Biggest change is inventory level. April 2018 we had 445 listing. We have 1066 today.
I think we will continue to trend lower.

 
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