When are we going to see mortgages rates going up to 8-10%

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1231588610][quote author="stepping_up" date=1231588326][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1231587945][quote author="rickhunter" date=1231567034]

The only thing I can see that can dip home prices significantly from NOW is if the interest rates went up to 9-10%. Not REO's, not anything else. Only interest rates. It aint gonna happen in the next 2 years. So therefore, I do not think there will be that kind of a dip you're hoping for.</blockquote>


I'll pose the opposite question.



What will both stabalize and significantly increase prices in the next twelve months?</blockquote>


who says that they need to significantly increase in the next 12 months... nothing is going to do that, but stabilizing them, fully in some areas and relatively in others, wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing for the rest of us that want to have our jobs and increase our earnings.</blockquote>


That's fine, but...



if they aren't going up and it's not cheaper than renting, what's the rush?</blockquote>


The rush is that some of us weren't going to buy what we could afford during the bubble even though we wanted to own. If you've been waiting for years for what you want to be affordable and suddenly it is, then you get off the renting train and go for it. I think they call it knife catching here... Stupidly slicing an onion last night, I did cut myself pretty bad and it hurt. Will my home purchase in May '08 do the same? Maybe, maybe not. So far, it's a whole lot less painful than the slice from the wusthof thurs night.
 
[quote author="flmgrip" date=1231581853]which gets me to my next point...



i bought a home jan 08. i'm not gonna say where, what builder etc...

i paid $575k, i put down $160k

my mortgage is $2200k fixed 30 years

my maintance, hoa, mello roos is about $600 a month

i'm not inlcuding property tax since i save at least that amount in taxes



so i'm paying $2800 a month for "rent" of a 3bed, aprox 2000sft house that i love, enjoy the neighbour hood and like. no street noise, no neighbours a floor above me etc... i really like this place and will stay here for quite a while...



----------------------------now i am simplifying the math but it works for me...



i could have stayed in that piece of shit rental apartment with my girlfriend, pay $2200 a month, here the street, people trying to accelarate from 0to50 from one stop sign to the next, hear the neighbours kids above doing dance exercises and playing the piano, have a fridge that rattles randomly at night and the IC refuse to fix, i could have an AC that makes a ton of noise wheneve it drains water, look for uncovered parking every night... but i'd be saving about $600 a month.



so this year i saved $7200 you say... well not really, because i would have put the down payment money in the stock market, to simplify it i am picking one mutual fund and one stock i own. i do not have time to trade and pay attention to the market so i am somewhat forced to buy and hold...



so here are the numbers...



the same floorplan is selling right now for about $560

so i lost $7200 + $15000=$22200.- because i bought a year ago, but if i would have not bought the home i would have done this



put $80k into apple stock price 1/1/08 was around $180 but to be fair it was at $145 three weeks later so let's say i bought it at $145, that gives me about 550 shares

put $80k into a vanguard wellington fund for $31/share so that gives me about 2580 shares



1/1/08 these shares were worth $160k (my downpayment) , taking prices from jan 09 these shares are

apple at $95 = 52250 "lost" $27750

wellington at $24.67 = 63650 "lost" $16350



so i lost $22k because i bought a house, but i would have lost $44k if i would have waited a year



bring it on guys !</blockquote>


Good Luck flmgrip. I <strong>HOPE</strong> things work out well for you.
 
[quote author="flmgrip" date=1231579385][quote author="BLUE FIRE" date=1231548522]For those who need a visual representation of Awgee's (*cough* correct) argument, I suggest you spend some time plugging values into the NY Times "Is it Better to Buy or Rent" calculator:



<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html#">http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html#</a></blockquote>


these calculators are usless. they only show the numbers you want to see. change a few percentage points here and there. and the numbers can change from 5 to 15 years or 25 years...



the truth is this claculator is using a lot of factors... no one will know what their yearly investment return will be, or their rent, or their housing costs, maintance costs etc...



so if you want to believe that renting is better than owning, but in low rent (and increase) and high invesment returns, high property maitance costs etc... or if you want to believe that owning is beter than renting do it the other way around... either way is speculationtion and trying to predict what the future will hold. we can only guess and hope...



yes some have been right about the dropping housing market, but this is not 06/07 it's 09... i wanted to buy in 07 because i got killed with taxes but i said these prices are crazy...</blockquote>


When you <em>"said these prices are crazy..."</em>, could you <em>"only guess and hope..."</em>?

Shockingly, some of us think that we can recognize some market conditions which allow us to formulate probabilities of future market conditions. This is not predicting the future with a crystal ball. This is analysis of past and present factors. Maybe we are just lucky, and if that is the case I will continue to trust my luck rather than guess and hope.

IR - Your analysis is speculation, trying to predict what the future will hold, guessing, and hoping. And all this time I was thinking you were smart and working hard.
 
[quote author="rickhunter" date=1231584319][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1231580348][quote author="rickhunter" date=1231567034]



The only thing I can see that can dip home prices significantly from NOW is if the interest rates went up to 9-10%. Not REO's, not anything else. Only interest rates. <strong>It aint gonna happen in the next 2 years.</strong> So therefore, I do not think there will be that kind of a dip you're hoping for.</blockquote>


Who can tell me whats wrong with the bolded statement?



I'll tell you, it's the fact that rickhunter is predicting that rates aren't going to go up after he said that nobody can predict things and predicting things are pointless. Not only is he predicting, he is predicting with a specifc time period.



Here is his previous statement from page one...



<em>"I think what?s stupid is people sitting around trying to ask/predict/answer the following?like they know it to be true.



1. Mortgage Rates going up in 2011?

2. Market bottoming in 2011?

3. When?s the best time to buy?



The overthinking part implies that one should not try to PREDICT the future!"</em>



It's really no big deal, I just thought it was commical...carry on. Rd 3.</blockquote>


I didnt sit around with a bunch of people asking for their opinions on a blog.

That would be comical!



This is my belief. I hope it to be true. I'm not trying to pour it down people's throats.



Do you get the difference?</blockquote>
The difference is belief and hope vs. well thought out and researched opinion.
 
Awgee, just because you're one of the uber bears and are most likely right on a number of things, doesn't mean that you have to be mean to the knife catchers. For some of us it made sense at the time....you don't have to try and make us feel like total idiots. You were specifically vocal in my case... I tried to tell my husband that Awgee says it's a bad idea, we should give up deposit. just kidding, obviously, but I did tell hubby after listenting to all your guys' advice, "let's bail on it, we lose $4K deposit, no biggie." But he wasn't going for it and now that we're this far in, I'm 10 x less stressed about the falling value than I was going in. My point is that you uber bears could be a little kinder to the "knife catchers." When you guys get all self righteous about housing prices are DEFINITELY going to drop another 30% in the next 12 months, you alienate a lot of others. I sometimes think that I should leave here because I don't have the same uber bear view and you guys aren't very cool to those that don't have your "the world is coming to an end" view. Seriously, if you want true dialague, then stop tearing apart anyone who isn't an uber bear.
 
Stepping - No one is ragging on RH for wanting to buy or even buying now. I think everybody realizes that is a personal decision which is different for everyone. Posters are ragging on him for his stupid and conflicting statements regarding factors used in the home buying decision making process. It seems that there are more than one or two folks who think that if they are not experienced at market analysis, nobody else could possibly be proficient at it or find it to be useful in their own decision making process. It seems they think it is all prediction, speculation, hoping, and guessing. I think I need to tell my father that all the money he has made in various markets over his lifetime was just dumb luck.
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1231591752]Awgee, just because you're one of the uber bears and are most likely right on a number of things, doesn't mean that you have to be mean to the knife catchers. For some of us it made sense at the time....you don't have to try and make us feel like total idiots. You were specifically vocal in my case... I tried to tell my husband that Awgee says it's a bad idea, we should give up deposit. just kidding, obviously, but I did tell hubby after listenting to all your guys' advice, "let's bail on it, we lose $4K deposit, no biggie." But he wasn't going for it and now that we're this far in, I'm 10 x less stressed about the falling value than I was going in. My point is that you uber bears could be a little kinder to the "knife catchers." When you guys get all self righteous about housing prices are DEFINITELY going to drop another 30% in the next 12 months, you alienate a lot of others. I sometimes think that I should leave here because I don't have the same uber bear view and you guys aren't very cool to those that don't have your "the world is coming to an end" view. Seriously, if you want true dialague, then stop tearing apart anyone who isn't an uber bear.</blockquote>


step - Unless my memory has completely failed me, I think I have always sincerely congratulated anyone who said they bought a home. And I have not tried to make anyone feel like a total idiot for catching a knife. In my mind, I do not see how I could possibly know your's or anyone else's particular and personal circumstance, and whether buying is good for you or them. But, if you ask me which way the re market is going, I will tell you and tell you why. I am not mean to knife catchers. I am mean to posters who make idiotic posts, such as affordability is the only issue the average person needs to consider and any other factor is over thinking and too complicated. Sorry, but that is just plain stupid. It is the kind of thing you hear from a not-so-good realtor or car salesman.

I do not know anything definitely, even the direction of home prices, but I have a pretty good idea of the probabilities; another negative 35% over the next 3 to 4 years. If you think that is self-righteous, well, you are entitled to your opinion, but I do not share it. And if that opinion alienates someone ...

If you review the thread and maybe previous threads, you may find that I do not tear apart anyone. I do tear apart statements based on inaccuracies, fallacies, lies, misleading data, incomplete data, conflicting statements, hypocrisies, etc. There is a huge difference. It is RH's posts that are getting torn apart, because they deserve it, not RH himself.
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1231591752]Awgee, just because you're one of the uber bears and are most likely right on a number of things, doesn't mean that you have to be mean to the knife catchers. For some of us it made sense at the time....you don't have to try and make us feel like total idiots. You were specifically vocal in my case... I tried to tell my husband that Awgee says it's a bad idea, we should give up deposit. just kidding, obviously, but I did tell hubby after listenting to all your guys' advice, "let's bail on it, we lose $4K deposit, no biggie." But he wasn't going for it and now that we're this far in, I'm 10 x less stressed about the falling value than I was going in. My point is that you uber bears could be a little kinder to the "knife catchers." When you guys get all self righteous about housing prices are DEFINITELY going to drop another 30% in the next 12 months, you alienate a lot of others. I sometimes think that I should leave here because I don't have the same uber bear view and you guys aren't very cool to those that don't have your "the world is coming to an end" view. Seriously, if you want true dialague, then stop tearing apart anyone who isn't an uber bear.</blockquote>


Seriously, some people here need to take a chill pill!

You make one statement and they climb all over you. But most of it is in good fun.

You cant make dialog if you dont disagree. But then again, you're right.

I think IHB has run it's course for me.
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1231590232]

The rush is that some of us weren't going to buy what we could afford during the bubble even though we wanted to own. If you've been waiting for years for what you want to be affordable and suddenly it is, then you get off the renting train and go for it. I think they call it knife catching here... Stupidly slicing an onion last night, I did cut myself pretty bad and it hurt. Will my home purchase in May '08 do the same? Maybe, maybe not. So far, it's a whole lot less painful than the slice from the wusthof thurs night.</blockquote>


I can understand the frustrated feeling. Watching homes I like languishing in short sales and being doomed to a slow REO process is massively aggravating.



Finding quality rentals is a problem. That increases the frustration because as another post said 'I could stay in that piece of ___ rental'
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1231566452][quote author="JLegend" date=1231563969][quote author="awgee" date=1231561351]





But, truly, it pisses me off that you just disregard all the information that some really intelligent and knowledgeable folks like ...no vas...,and so many are providing you with for free. Obviously AI will never get it. He/she doesn't have the wherewithal, but you have no excuse.

</blockquote>


I thought No Vas just provided snarky comments and posted pics of bong hits? That's the jist of his posts I get, anyway.</blockquote>


I stand corrected.</blockquote>


Hey, I can bring the tech better than anyone else here. Nobody here worked in Special Assets other than me. I know better than anyone here what the bank will and won't do.



I simply bring the pictures of people getting high and make snarky comments because a number of posters flat ass out don't get it, or are alergic to money, or are high. It's my calling to prod idiots, and lately this board is full of them. However, my new night job is taking away a lot of time I would of formerly spent at the IHB.



I watched a buddy of mine declare bankrupcy because his house lost $15K and he had no way to pay the shortfall in 1998. The people next door to me are stuck $300K in a fairly middle class home in Orange because property values backed up on them. They are renting out two bedrooms of thier 3br home they share with thier two kids just trying to make it. They should of NEVER been in this mortgage. They will NEVER get even and will NEVER be the same thanks to fools like JLegend and AI.



There's a special place in hell for folks like them and Bernie Madoff.



It just makes me sick.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1231603980][quote author="awgee" date=1231566452][quote author="JLegend" date=1231563969][quote author="awgee" date=1231561351]





But, truly, it pisses me off that you just disregard all the information that some really intelligent and knowledgeable folks like ...no vas...,and so many are providing you with for free. Obviously AI will never get it. He/she doesn't have the wherewithal, but you have no excuse.

</blockquote>


I thought No Vas just provided snarky comments and posted pics of bong hits? That's the jist of his posts I get, anyway.</blockquote>


I stand corrected.</blockquote>


Hey, I can bring the tech better than anyone else here. Nobody here worked in Special Assets other than me. I know better than anyone here what the bank will and won't do.



I simply bring the pictures of people getting high and make snarky comments because a number of posters flat ass out don't get it, or are alergic to money, or are high. It's my calling to prod idiots, and lately this board is full of them. However, my new night job is taking away a lot of time I would of formerly spent at the IHB.



I watched a buddy of mine declare bankrupcy because his house lost $15K and he had no way to pay the shortfall in 1998. The people next door to me are stuck $300K in a fairly middle class home in Orange because property values backed up on them. They are renting out two bedrooms of thier 3br home they share with thier two kids just trying to make it. They should of NEVER been in this mortgage. They will NEVER get even and will NEVER be the same thanks to fools like JLegend and AI.



There's a special place in hell for folks like them and Bernie Madoff.



It just makes me sick.</blockquote>
I thought JL was goofing, and I know I was.
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1231586899]BV, I have the upmost respect for you, but come on, if you are going to go out to dinner, do NOT go to Olive Garden. Frozen dinners are cheaper and easier than that. I'd invite you and Mrs BV over for homemade raviolis if you promise not to diss on our calculations :)</blockquote>


Haha. Cravings are cravings my friend. Don't try and fight a pregnant woman. If she wants breadsticks and salad...she wants breadsticks and salad.



Homemade ravioli sounds amazing, i'm up for that anyday. I won't diss your calcs either. I don't mean to do that, but when someone trys to prove a point through wrong calcs...thats different than having wrongs calcs and asking for help or acknowledging they are wrong.
 
[quote author="rickhunter" date=1231595876]I think IHB has run it's course for me.</blockquote>
Quitters never win.



I'm kidding.



Seriously... you shouldn't bail just because your opinions don't agree with everyone else's. Then there would be nothing to discuss.



I know where you're coming from because I was there once. Although I'm not an uber-bear... I do agree in taking fundamentals such as rental parity and real affordability into consideration. From our perspective, when we bought in '05, we could afford our home. The problem was that we could have rented the same or nicer home for less. Sure, no one can predict if prices are going to rise or fall... but you can compare if renting is cheaper than buying. There was a time when buying was cheaper (late 90s) but right now... all things considered (esp in Irvine) it's not.



Sure... we want to own our home... but until our monthly cost makes sense... I'll happily let my landlord worry about headaches I used to have because I can wait to paint, re-floor or re-model. Heck, our last house was the first one we actual did that to and it was our 3rd one in the last 10 years.



I don't know what area you are looking to buy in... but I believe we will have a way to go before we bottom out in Irvine. I think other places are close and will be flat for quite a while. If you find the perfect place, and your ready to *possibly* take another 20% hit... that's your decision. I thought I was fine with it in '05 and I actually did lose most of my 20% down payment when we sold... but we're living in a much better place and in a much better area... and don't mind waiting a few more years because we are actually enjoying our "try before you buy" lifestyle (except the moving part... ugh!).



Good luck.
 
Issue arises not in whether or not something is right or wrong to buy. Its almost impossible to get it right anyway. But trying to prove a point that it was the right thing to do especially by using extreme scenarios is whats upseting to me.

If you use the right examples, you can make any purchase seem like it was a better alternative. Like I said before, I can buy a depreciating home or blow 1M on Vegas. That doesn't mean that both of my choices are good.

I have plenty of friends that bought homes at the wrong times, do i make fun of them or condemn them? Hell no. I support them and try and help them. At the same time they don't try and prove to me that their decisions were fantastic.

I bought a car 9 years ago that I still drive today because of a stupid decision I made. I bought a car and overpaid for it by a mile. To pay for the mistake...I still drive it today no matter how bad it is. But I don't try and justify myself by saying well you know I could have bought stock in Enron a bankrupt company..so my decision to buy an overpriced car is actually great.
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1231591752]Awgee, just because you're one of the uber bears and are most likely right on a number of things, doesn't mean that you have to be mean to the knife catchers... My point is that you uber bears could be a little kinder to the "knife catchers." When you guys get all self righteous about housing prices are DEFINITELY going to drop another 30% in the next 12 months, you alienate a lot of others. </blockquote>


stepping_up and rickhunter -- I'm in the same boat as you with my mello roos topic. I presented the topic, only to have some on the forum come right back, take bits of my posting out of context, then make assumptions about me being somehow completely misguided and misinformed -- Making it personal. Then when I stand up for myself it of course goes completely downhill with a number of people ripping on me without knowing a damn thing about me.



On top of it all, those same people come back and try to say they've "been there" and "used to feel the same as me" (when I feel ZERO pressure to buy a house for the reasons they state). Apparently "being there" gives them license to be completely condescending, rather than mentor/share with people in a respectful, good way.
 
[quote author="spclagent7" date=1231650058][quote author="stepping_up" date=1231591752]Awgee, just because you're one of the uber bears and are most likely right on a number of things, doesn't mean that you have to be mean to the knife catchers... My point is that you uber bears could be a little kinder to the "knife catchers." When you guys get all self righteous about housing prices are DEFINITELY going to drop another 30% in the next 12 months, you alienate a lot of others. </blockquote>


stepping_up and rickhunter -- I'm in the same boat as you with my mello roos topic. I presented the topic, only to have some on the forum come right back, take bits of my posting out of context, then make assumptions about me being somehow completely misguided and misinformed -- Making it personal. Then when I stand up for myself it of course goes completely downhill with a number of people ripping on me without knowing a damn thing about me.



On top of it all, those same people come back and try to say they've "been there" and "used to feel the same as me" (when I feel ZERO pressure to buy a house for the reasons they state). Apparently "being there" gives them license to be completely condescending, rather than mentor/share with people in a respectful, good way.</blockquote>


Oh please...nobody tore you up until you started calling people idiots and a$$holes. Here is the problem. People ask for advice, we give advice...if the advice doesn't align with their purchase or their views then they automaticaly get defensive trying to prove their point.



As far as I'm concearned. I could care less if you make 1M or lose 1M. My opinion is homes go lower and I'm simply going to wait. If you think its a great time to buy, then buy. Don't even come here for advice or views because obviously you have your own opinion that will go unchanged. Why even bother barking up this tree...go..buy...enjoy!



Anyway, I feel like i'm repeating myself. I'm sure awgee feels the same. I'm packing my bags from this thread. Enjoy and good luck.
 
[quote author="spclagent7" date=1231650058][quote author="stepping_up" date=1231591752]Awgee, just because you're one of the uber bears and are most likely right on a number of things, doesn't mean that you have to be mean to the knife catchers... My point is that you uber bears could be a little kinder to the "knife catchers." When you guys get all self righteous about housing prices are DEFINITELY going to drop another 30% in the next 12 months, you alienate a lot of others. </blockquote>


stepping_up and rickhunter -- I'm in the same boat as you with my mello roos topic. I presented the topic, only to have some on the forum come right back, take bits of my posting out of context, then make assumptions about me being somehow completely misguided and misinformed -- Making it personal. Then when I stand up for myself it of course goes completely downhill with a number of people ripping on me without knowing a damn thing about me.



On top of it all, those same people come back and try to say they've "been there" and "used to feel the same as me" (when I feel ZERO pressure to buy a house for the reasons they state). Apparently "being there" gives them license to be completely condescending, rather than mentor/share with people in a respectful, good way.</blockquote>


unless you agree with "them" you will never win. it's like calling tom leykes, you better be on his side or he'll rip you a new one.



i don't show up here very ofte, once in a while i do, listen in and sometimes post, for entertainment and fun. i don't take anything personal around here.



agree that housing will drop another 30% or you will not find much luck. for me it doesn't matter, i love my house, the numbers work for me (so far) and i move from a POS 1200sft 2bdr rental into a nice quiet 2000sft 3bdr house. i really don't care what the value of my home is I DO HOPE THAT PRICE WILL DROP further and stay there. it'll save me on taxes. i have no intentions of selling and i am very comftable with my monthly payments....
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1231591232][quote author="flmgrip" date=1231579385][quote author="BLUE FIRE" date=1231548522]For those who need a visual representation of Awgee's (*cough* correct) argument, I suggest you spend some time plugging values into the NY Times "Is it Better to Buy or Rent" calculator:



<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html#">http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html#</a></blockquote>


these calculators are usless. they only show the numbers you want to see. change a few percentage points here and there. and the numbers can change from 5 to 15 years or 25 years...



the truth is this claculator is using a lot of factors... no one will know what their yearly investment return will be, or their rent, or their housing costs, maintance costs etc...



so if you want to believe that renting is better than owning, but in low rent (and increase) and high invesment returns, high property maitance costs etc... or if you want to believe that owning is beter than renting do it the other way around... either way is speculationtion and trying to predict what the future will hold. we can only guess and hope...



yes some have been right about the dropping housing market, but this is not 06/07 it's 09... i wanted to buy in 07 because i got killed with taxes but i said these prices are crazy...</blockquote>


When you <em>"said these prices are crazy..."</em>, could you <em>"only guess and hope..."</em>?

Shockingly, some of us think that we can recognize some market conditions which allow us to formulate probabilities of future market conditions. This is not predicting the future with a crystal ball. This is analysis of past and present factors. Maybe we are just lucky, and if that is the case I will continue to trust my luck rather than guess and hope.

IR - Your analysis is speculation, trying to predict what the future will hold, guessing, and hoping. And all this time I was thinking you were smart and working hard.</blockquote>


i don't recall saying prices are crazy... i guess my statment "guess and hope" is taking wrongly, however there is only so much even the best analasys will be able to predict, THERE IS TOO MANY FACTORS and that's my point with these calculators, you ounch in the numbers untill you see what you want to see. i have no idea if i will hae to fork up 5 grand for some unexpected repair and i have i have no idea what i would be paying in rent in 5 years. i do know tho that the majority of my payments will be the same for the next 30 years no matter what. anything else is guessing and hopeing (that my roof does not need repairs in five years or my whaterpipe will bust in seven) YOU CAN NOT PREDICT these circumstances... even trying to figure out where rental prices are going, we can guess and try to make analysis (with data from the past) but we don't know... what if the elect's train ride (god forbid and i don't even believe in god) blows up ? all the charts are gonna be out the window... SO I HOPE THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1231603980][quote author="awgee" date=1231566452][quote author="JLegend" date=1231563969][quote author="awgee" date=1231561351]





But, truly, it pisses me off that you just disregard all the information that some really intelligent and knowledgeable folks like ...no vas...,and so many are providing you with for free. Obviously AI will never get it. He/she doesn't have the wherewithal, but you have no excuse.

</blockquote>


I thought No Vas just provided snarky comments and posted pics of bong hits? That's the jist of his posts I get, anyway.</blockquote>


I stand corrected.</blockquote>


....



There's a special place in hell for folks like them and Bernie Madoff.



It just makes me sick.</blockquote>


i can't believe it, i am agreeing with no-vas....
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1231590739][quote author="flmgrip" date=1231581853]which gets me to my next point...



i bought a home jan 08. i'm not gonna say where, what builder etc...

i paid $575k, i put down $160k

my mortgage is $2200k fixed 30 years

my maintance, hoa, mello roos is about $600 a month

i'm not inlcuding property tax since i save at least that amount in taxes



so i'm paying $2800 a month for "rent" of a 3bed, aprox 2000sft house that i love, enjoy the neighbour hood and like. no street noise, no neighbours a floor above me etc... i really like this place and will stay here for quite a while...



----------------------------now i am simplifying the math but it works for me...



i could have stayed in that piece of shit rental apartment with my girlfriend, pay $2200 a month, here the street, people trying to accelarate from 0to50 from one stop sign to the next, hear the neighbours kids above doing dance exercises and playing the piano, have a fridge that rattles randomly at night and the IC refuse to fix, i could have an AC that makes a ton of noise wheneve it drains water, look for uncovered parking every night... but i'd be saving about $600 a month.



so this year i saved $7200 you say... well not really, because i would have put the down payment money in the stock market, to simplify it i am picking one mutual fund and one stock i own. i do not have time to trade and pay attention to the market so i am somewhat forced to buy and hold...



so here are the numbers...



the same floorplan is selling right now for about $560

so i lost $7200 + $15000=$22200.- because i bought a year ago, but if i would have not bought the home i would have done this



put $80k into apple stock price 1/1/08 was around $180 but to be fair it was at $145 three weeks later so let's say i bought it at $145, that gives me about 550 shares

put $80k into a vanguard wellington fund for $31/share so that gives me about 2580 shares



1/1/08 these shares were worth $160k (my downpayment) , taking prices from jan 09 these shares are

apple at $95 = 52250 "lost" $27750

wellington at $24.67 = 63650 "lost" $16350



so i lost $22k because i bought a house, but i would have lost $44k if i would have waited a year



bring it on guys !</blockquote>


Good Luck flmgrip. I <strong>HOPE</strong> things work out well for you.</blockquote>


hehe.... thanks
 
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