What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Updated a bunch of closing prices...



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">IPO-Shiller</a>



120 Retreat smells funny. Supposedly closed for $1.31M, but that would be $300K+ less than 2005 price, and things just haven't rolled that far back. Anyone know anything about this property. I see there are $50K worth of back taxes owed on it. If the new owners had to pay those, that would at least make the price seem more reasonable...
 
Monster escrow update... Buyers were busy this week it appears. I added 10+ properties to the list.



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">IPO's Site</a>



Added a few more closings as well. Irvine prices appear to still be rooted at summer 2004 equivalents, similar to what they were this past March.



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">Updated IPO Shiller</a>
 
Wow, Irvine prices really have been sticky.



Costa Mesa has gone from 190 in Feb to 182, 188, 185, 182, and so far july looks to be 179.



the variability also appears to be much higher in Irvine. All the CM numbers are +/-6 or so.



Can you identify pricing trends (ie certain neighborhoods are still in the 230s, versus others in the 170s?)
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1216969985]Wow, Irvine prices really have been sticky.



Costa Mesa has gone from 190 in Feb to 182, 188, 185, 182, and so far july looks to be 179.



the variability also appears to be much higher in Irvine. All the CM numbers are +/-6 or so.



Can you identify pricing trends (ie certain neighborhoods are still in the 230s, versus others in the 170s?)</blockquote>


Too lazy to look at monthly within neighborhoods and the sample size is probably too small for that anyway, but here is median by major area:



Turtle Ridge 250

Northwood II 244

Woodbury 239

Quail Hill 225

Northpark Square 224

NW Pointe 214

Westpark 209

Turtle Rock 207

Old Northwood 207

West Irvine 205

Walnut 205

Northpark 205

Woodbridge 204

VoC 204

Tustin Ranch 194



Strong correlation between age and how well they are retaining value... Buyers are still placing a greater premium on newer construction. VoC bucks this trend. Tustin Ranch is falling faster than its 92602 neighbors, although not by an extreme amount.
 
Thanks for the great info, Ipo. I still can't believe some of the prices these places are getting. We are particularly shocked by Westpark. My wife and I looked at this place on Calavera when it was first listed a couple of weeks ago --- it would suit us pretty well. But to us the $825k and $400+ sq ft is a total WTF price. Well, here it lands in my inbox this morning as accepting backup offers, after just 14 days. Man, these prices are sticky.



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/66-Calavera-92606/home/4628448">66 Calavera</a>
 
[quote author="CK" date=1217032202]Thanks for the great info, Ipo. I still can't believe some of the prices these places are getting. We are particularly shocked by Westpark. My wife and I looked at this place on Calavera when it was first listed a couple of weeks ago --- it would suit us pretty well. But to us the $825k and $400+ sq ft is a total WTF price. Well, here it lands in my inbox this morning as accepting backup offers, after just 14 days. Man, these prices are sticky.



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/66-Calavera-92606/home/4628448">66 Calavera</a></blockquote>


I would wager that 99% of those buyers have never read Roubini's or CR's blog. There are many sheep and few shepherds.
 
[quote author="CK" date=1217032202]Thanks for the great info, Ipo. I still can't believe some of the prices these places are getting. We are particularly shocked by Westpark. My wife and I looked at this place on Calavera when it was first listed a couple of weeks ago --- it would suit us pretty well. But to us the $825k and $400+ sq ft is a total WTF price. Well, here it lands in my inbox this morning as accepting backup offers, after just 14 days. Man, these prices are sticky.



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/66-Calavera-92606/home/4628448">66 Calavera</a></blockquote>


That area of Westpark is nice, despite the 80's Cal Med look, and is holding up very well price-wise. Listing says Woodbridge but doesn't that house feed Irvine HS?



edit - Just checked the attendance maps. That area is going from Irvine HS to Woodbridge HS beginning this new school year...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1216971732]



Too lazy to look at monthly within neighborhoods and the sample size is probably too small for that anyway, but here is median by major area:



Turtle Ridge 250

Northwood II 244

Woodbury 239

Quail Hill 225

Northpark Square 224

NW Pointe 214

Westpark 209

Turtle Rock 207

Old Northwood 207

West Irvine 205

Walnut 205

Northpark 205

Woodbridge 204

VoC 204

Tustin Ranch 194



Strong correlation between age and how well they are retaining value... Buyers are still placing a greater premium on newer construction. VoC bucks this trend. Tustin Ranch is falling faster than its 92602 neighbors, although not by an extreme amount.</blockquote>


Don't see Oak Creek in there. Any guesses to where it would slot in?
 
One thing that may be underestimated in this price situation is the endogentity (sp) of prices. In other words, there's a ratio of price to income that we are assuming is normal. It's entirely possible that the income part of the equation is changing as much as the price part. The people buying these homes probably have higher than the median income and thus, the median income of Irvine will rise, the median price will fall but it will end up the price decline will be much less than people think. I have no idea if that's true or not, but it does seem that way.



With that said, I don't know what the median 'price' is right now, but my guess is it's still about 20% too high at a minimum.
 
[quote author="CK" date=1217032202]Thanks for the great info, Ipo. I still can't believe some of the prices these places are getting. We are particularly shocked by Westpark. My wife and I looked at this place on Calavera when it was first listed a couple of weeks ago --- it would suit us pretty well. But to us the $825k and $400+ sq ft is a total WTF price. Well, here it lands in my inbox this morning as accepting backup offers, after just 14 days. Man, these prices are sticky.



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/66-Calavera-92606/home/4628448">66 Calavera</a></blockquote>


Calavera is skull in Spanish. Creepy name for a street. Good stuff on Halloween though.
 
[quote author="25w100k+" date=1217035180][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1216971732]



Too lazy to look at monthly within neighborhoods and the sample size is probably too small for that anyway, but here is median by major area:



Turtle Ridge 250

Northwood II 244

Woodbury 239

Quail Hill 225

Northpark Square 224

NW Pointe 214

Westpark 209

Turtle Rock 207

Old Northwood 207

West Irvine 205

Walnut 205

Northpark 205

Woodbridge 204

VoC 204

Tustin Ranch 194



Strong correlation between age and how well they are retaining value... Buyers are still placing a greater premium on newer construction. VoC bucks this trend. Tustin Ranch is falling faster than its 92602 neighbors, although not by an extreme amount.</blockquote>


Don't see Oak Creek in there. Any guesses to where it would slot in?</blockquote>


The transaction population I have for Oak Creek is rather small, so I don't know if the value would be terribly useful. It comes in at 217... There are a lot of sub 2000sf places in Oak Creek, which I don't track, so I don't think my data captures that area very well. While it was built at the same time as West Irvine, my sense is that its holding up a bit better in terms of pricing...
 
[quote author="CK" date=1217032202]Thanks for the great info, Ipo. I still can't believe some of the prices these places are getting. We are particularly shocked by Westpark. My wife and I looked at this place on Calavera when it was first listed a couple of weeks ago --- it would suit us pretty well. But to us the $825k and $400+ sq ft is a total WTF price. Well, here it lands in my inbox this morning as accepting backup offers, after just 14 days. Man, these prices are sticky.



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/66-Calavera-92606/home/4628448">66 Calavera</a></blockquote>


I've added your Calavera place to my site CK...
 
<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/Undisclosed-address-92603/home/15342672">Here is an interesting</a> recent escrow entrant in Quail Hill...



Maybe someone should send a letter to the tenants.
 
[quote author="Trooper" date=1217054277]ok Schlotkins....you just made me look up <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endogeneity_(economics)">endogeneity</a></blockquote>


:) Sorry about that Trooper... I'm a finance geek so that's what I'm trained to think about. The market here in Irvine is pretty interesting to watch. I think the real test is going to be this fall and winter, assuming something doesn't stop the foreclosure train. A lot of people either won't or can't sell because of the price decline so a lot of the inventory moving is REOs. In the spring, there's more demand than supply because of the supply problem. In the winter, I'm not sure if there will be enough demand as REO numbers should rise. I guess last year most of the decline happened after July so we'll see what happens this year.



The thing I love most is when people say the median sales price was down X percent from last year. Duh, that number is biased downward because only cheap homes are selling.



Anyway, enough of a rant. Just to make this not OT, thanks to IPO for all of his work here. May his sale complete and may prices drop!
 
Couple of nice places recently fell out of escrow. 5 Brockton in NW Pointe didn't last a week and surprisingly, 35 Malibu in Northpark, fell out after quite some time in escrow...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1217318266]Couple of nice places recently fell out of escrow. 5 Brockton in NW Pointe didn't last a week and surprisingly, 35 Malibu in Northpark, fell out after quite some time in escrow...</blockquote>


The price/sq.foot ($249) on 24 Tioga Place looks very nice.

3,950sq. feet with an amazing pool and backyard.

This may be the new Casa de Ipo.

Jump on it Ipop.

You may finally earn my respect.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1217371229][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1217318266]Couple of nice places recently fell out of escrow. 5 Brockton in NW Pointe didn't last a week and surprisingly, 35 Malibu in Northpark, fell out after quite some time in escrow...</blockquote>


The price/sq.foot ($249) on 24 Tioga Place looks very nice.

3,950sq. feet with an amazing pool and backyard.

This may be the new Casa de Ipo.

Jump on it Ipop.

You may finally earn my respect.</blockquote>


You'll never catch me living in Legacy Ten... I don't like that area, even for $250/sf and no association dues.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1217383569]

You'll never catch me living in Legacy Ten... I don't like that area, even for $250/sf and no association dues.</blockquote>




What?

I checked the map, looks like it?s next to your old place in West Irvine.

How could this location be any worse then your old place?

You have a fire alley posing as a street.

Front door opens to a wall, can slap the neighbor from your doorstep, etc?..

Okay, you win almighty Ipop, please tell me why this is an inferior location.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1217391162][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1217383569]

You'll never catch me living in Legacy Ten... I don't like that area, even for $250/sf and no association dues.</blockquote>




What?

I checked the map, looks like it?s next to your old place in West Irvine.

How could this location be any worse then your old place?

You have a fire alley posing as a street.

Front door opens to a wall, can slap the neighbor from your doorstep, etc?..

Okay, you win almighty Ipop, please tell me why this is an inferior location.</blockquote>


Legacy is older, fuglier, rundown (in Irvine standards), and has a much higher quotient of WT than the rest of West Irvine. Lots of rent-a-room houses with the tenants filling up street parking with rice rockets... There is a reason my place will sell for over $370/sf and a similar sized Legacy units are probably more like $325-350/sf. That part of West Irvine has always sold at a discount relative to the 2000/2001 build properties.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top