What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

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Hey IPOP,



Speaking of Quail Hill--I was wondering if <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/IRVINE/48-CANOPY-92603/home/5944634">48 CANOPY</a> fell out of escrow? Red Fin still still lists it as active. I saw your <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">website </a>and it listed as having gone into escrow on 5/2/08.
 
[quote author="IACRenter" date=1211548802]Hey IPOP,



Speaking of Quail Hill--I was wondering if <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/IRVINE/48-CANOPY-92603/home/5944634">48 CANOPY</a> fell out of escrow? Red Fin still still lists it as active. I saw your <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">website </a>and it listed as having gone into escrow on 5/2/08.</blockquote>


48 Canopy fell out of escrow on the 17th of May, within the 17-day contingency removal period. It is currently back on the market as an active property.



Price History:

5/23/07 - $1,025,000

7/09/07 - $975,000

7/18/07 - $965,000

8/07/07 - $929,000

11/12/07 - $879,000

1/12/07 - $859,000

3/10/07 - $819,000

Current list price $819,000

Cumulative DOM 360



Of note: in the agent notes it states that sellers are willing to finance $100K at zero interest for up to 3 years. Offering 2.5% to buyer's side.
 
Hey Ipo, I think 11792 Red Hill has closed. It's dropped off my Redfin list, at least. Can you check if a final price is available yet? BTW, 3 more properties I've been watching went into escrow this past week in the $1.1-1.6M range.
 
[quote author="Irvine Allergy Dr" date=1211574959]Hey Ipo, I think 11792 Red Hill has closed. It's dropped off my Redfin list, at least. Can you check if a final price is available yet? BTW, 3 more properties I've been watching went into escrow this past week in the $1.1-1.6M range.</blockquote>


It's pending sale status doc. Not closed yet. Will post here when it does...
 
[quote author="IACRenter" date=1211548802]Hey IPOP,



Speaking of Quail Hill--I was wondering if <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/IRVINE/48-CANOPY-92603/home/5944634">48 CANOPY</a> fell out of escrow? Red Fin still still lists it as active. I saw your <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">website </a>and it listed as having gone into escrow on 5/2/08.</blockquote>


I've been too lazy to recheck all listing this week... Thanks for the find and reminder. I shall update.
 
Got a few closing prices this morning... Couple in older Northwood, which went for sub-200 index numbers and helped to pull down the median for May:



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">Updated IPO-Shiller</a>



Looks like May is tracking to be flat with April. Sample size is still a bit small though. It would appear that it is taking longer for deals to move through to closure of late. Perhaps this is due to increased lender scrutiny...
 
Great to be back!

Looks like the high end in TR has picked up.

Two of Double J?s Million+ $$$ listings got taken down.

Willard was like a slow death with all those price cuts, starting at $2.4M.

Guy that bought it in ?05 is feeling the pain.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1211930429]Great to be back!

Looks like the high end in TR has picked up.

Two of Double J?s Million+ $$$ listings got taken down.

Willard was like a slow death with all those price cuts, starting at $2.4M.

Guy that bought it in ?05 is feeling the pain.</blockquote>


Dude... where have you been? Were you passed out from two much diet Red Bull and goose and missed your flight in Ibiza? Or, did you take the kids to Disneyworld?
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1211933747][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1211930429]Great to be back!

Looks like the high end in TR has picked up.

Two of Double J?s Million+ $$$ listings got taken down.

Willard was like a slow death with all those price cuts, starting at $2.4M.

Guy that bought it in ?05 is feeling the pain.</blockquote>


Dude... where have you been? Were you passed out from two much diet Red Bull and goose and missed your flight in Ibiza? Or, did you take the kids to Disneyworld?</blockquote>






Aww?thanks for the shout out.

Can?t believe you left your Go-Go Dance cage at Pink Steel long enough to post that.

Way to go, I missed you too.

Don?t take that the wrong way.

Sorry, the Tori Amos/Sarah MacLachlan concert with you and Cayci is still off.
 
Welcome back Ten-Man. 30 Montclair in NP got taken down... Prices are firming my man, you had better buy now if you want that trophy place!



Couple of closes to report:



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">IPO Shiller</a>



Sample size is probably big enough now to confirm that May prices are flat/level with April's.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1212024358]Welcome back Ten-Man. 30 Montclair in NP got taken down... Prices are firming my man, you had better buy now if you want that trophy place!



Couple of closes to report:



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">IPO Shiller</a>



Sample size is probably big enough now to confirm that May prices are flat/level with April's.</blockquote>




Thanks Ipop,

Good to be back.

Yeah, I agree with you.

Unfortunately, there would need to be a few more reductions in Northpark before I could step in.

30 Montclair is way out of my range.

Saw 10 Fair Oaks dropped $150K, it?s starting to getting down there.

What about you?

Last time we spoke you made an offer, how did it go?
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1212029679][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1212024358]Welcome back Ten-Man. 30 Montclair in NP got taken down... Prices are firming my man, you had better buy now if you want that trophy place!



Couple of closes to report:



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">IPO Shiller</a>



Sample size is probably big enough now to confirm that May prices are flat/level with April's.</blockquote>




Thanks Ipop,

Good to be back.

Yeah, I agree with you.

Unfortunately, there would need to be a few more reductions in Northpark before I could step in.

30 Montclair is way out of my range.

Saw 10 Fair Oaks dropped $150K, it?s starting to getting down there.

What about you?

Last time we spoke you made an offer, how did it go?</blockquote>


We came up short on that offer as expected...



Interesting wrinkle to my personal buying situation. IR2 has graciously brought me an unsolicited buyer that would like to purchase my condo for a potentially fair price. One like mine is hitting escrow this week (been on the market for a few weeks only) and I started working on Mrs. IPO about a sell-rent scenario. Just so happens that there is a reasonably priced rental in a neighborhood we like situated on a nice culdy with a big nice backyard. Might be cosmically or karmically aligned enough to get Mrs. IPO to pull the trigger on renting.



I have been busy running cost-benefit scenarios. Since it will cost me $1100 more to rent vs. own after-tax per month, a 5% only drop in RE prices will end up being a break-even over the long haul for us and a loser for the next 6-7 years. At 10% drop in prices, our B/E on the extra spend is 3-4 years with a net benefit during the years of ownership of $40K or so. With a 20% drop in prices over the next year, our B/E on the extra spend would be less than 2 years with $80K long-term benefit.



I am figuring that a 5% drop is the least we could see over the next 12 months and a 10% drop probably being more likely. In that case, it becomes a matter of spending $12-13K more over the next year to save $50K on mortgage payments over the next 20 years...
 
Best of luck whichever way you and the wife decide to go.

Unfortunately, my situation is different then yours so I approach things differently.

Saving $50K or even $300K over that kind of time frame wouldn't phase me.

I?ve already come to terms with that.

As long as it?s in my range, I?ll do it.



Regarding your offer,

Not to pry, I?m just trying to gauge and fine-tune my own efforts.

Did you offer list on the house over or under?

$935K seems like a very good price.

I totally understand if you don?t want to answer publicly, maybe you could pm me with the details.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1212038659]Best of luck whichever way you and the wife decide to go.

Unfortunately, my situation is different then yours so I approach things differently.

Saving $50K or even $300K over that kind of time frame wouldn't phase me.

I?ve already come to terms with that.

As long as it?s in my range, I?ll do it.



Regarding your offer,

Not to pry, I?m just trying to gauge and fine-tune my own efforts.

Did you offer list on the house over or under?

$935K seems like a very good price.

I totally understand if you don?t want to answer publicly, maybe you could pm me with the details.</blockquote>


We offered over list, but only by $100.00. IR2 never heard back from the listing agent so we have no idea how much it went for. Will likely find out soon. My guess is probably $1-1.025Mish.
 
<em>IPO: "I have been busy running cost-benefit scenarios. Since it will cost me $1100 more to rent vs. own after-tax per month, a 5% only drop in RE prices will end up being a break-even over the long haul for us and a loser for the next 6-7 years. At 10% drop in prices, our B/E on the extra spend is 3-4 years with a net benefit during the years of ownership of $40K or so. With a 20% drop in prices over the next year, our B/E on the extra spend would be less than 2 years with $80K long-term benefit".</em>



I like your math on the b/e rent vs. own. That said, by the description of the rental, it sounds like you are making an upgrade from your current detached condo. Do you factor the lifestyle upgrade into your calculations at all?



I'm curious to your approach, as have been trying to crunch the numbers to justify moving up to a much more expensive rental for a couple years, as opposed to buying now at still inflated prices and just bearing the paper loss for a few years. Ms. CK wants to buy, Mr. CK could care less at this point about owning or buying, and just wants a backyard to flip burgers and drink beer in. I'm fighting the "if we pay more in rent we are just throwing money away" battle with Ms. CK. *Sigh*.
 
[quote author="CK" date=1212040984]<em>IPO: "I have been busy running cost-benefit scenarios. Since it will cost me $1100 more to rent vs. own after-tax per month, a 5% only drop in RE prices will end up being a break-even over the long haul for us and a loser for the next 6-7 years. At 10% drop in prices, our B/E on the extra spend is 3-4 years with a net benefit during the years of ownership of $40K or so. With a 20% drop in prices over the next year, our B/E on the extra spend would be less than 2 years with $80K long-term benefit".</em>



I like your math on the b/e rent vs. own. That said, by the description of the rental, it sounds like you are making an upgrade from your current detached condo. Do you factor the lifestyle upgrade into your calculations at all?



I'm curious to your approach, as have been trying to crunch the numbers to justify moving up to a much more expensive rental for a couple years, as opposed to buying now at still inflated prices and just bearing the paper loss for a few years. Ms. CK wants to buy, Mr. CK could care less at this point about owning or buying, and just wants a backyard to flip burgers and drink beer in. I'm fighting the "if we pay more in rent we are just throwing money away" battle with Ms. CK. *Sigh*.</blockquote>


It's all about how the numbers shake out without regard to what we are buying with rental dollars. I can't really factor in the upgrade as its a baseline requirement for the scenario to play out. That is, Mrs. IPO wouldn't consider a pure lateral move as she would rather continue to live in our condo vs. sell it and rent another like it. I think I actually agree with her... The additional square footage, yard, etc. is compensation of the hassle of moving twice, living out of boxes to a degree, not being able to customize the home to our desires. I think those things pretty much net out, especially to the Mrs.



That being the case, it mostly breaks down to the financial pros and cons and also maybe future stress level factor. As constructed now, our master plan would have me worrying about both a new home purchase and existing home sale at essentially the same time. Selling now would reduce that future stress level and allow me/us to better enjoy the long-term house purchase when we make it.



First things first, need to be willing to allow my dog in the rental. Not going anywhere without my Lab!
 
IPO, it seems to me that you have already thought through the whole process. I only want to add that your condo price is not going to increase while the single family home prices are either stable or decreasing. So the current fair market value of your condo is probably the best price you can expect for the years to come. Sitting on your proceeds while waiting for the right home at the your acceptable price range seems to me is the most logical choice here. You can analysis this to death, but it will be very hard to "model" the price and timing of your condo sell correctly. I went through the process of buying a home while selling a home just couple years ago. I can tell you it is very stressful. I won't want to do that again.



Good luck!
 
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