What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
My better half is a hot-blooded Filipina, so my balls were taken away about 3 years ago. I might have to start paying bills late as an excuse for not buying a home! Oh crap, she's calling me from the living room.......
 
My wife is a dreamboat who'll wait as long as it takes to get the "most perfect" deal possible. Guess I'm lucky. We'll just keep renting until there's a rent/buy ratio that makes sense.
 
<p>Nothing has gone into escrow for the past couple of days, at least in my search, so I can't even steer this thread back to houses... </p>

<p>Been kind of a slow week listing wise. Less escrow activity, not many new listings, not many price drops.</p>
 
Looks like 356 Quail Ridge went into escrow. I did think 285 a square foot was a steal for Quail Hill. But they also didn't show anything on the inside...so....maybe its gross. I'm also not a fan of anything that requires walking upstairs to get to the living room/kitchen.



Come on 300 a square foot for the rest of Quail Hill! :)
 
I know some folks who bought in 2004. Even if prices were to drop below what they bought their home for, they no longer care. I guess they have established and rooted themselves into their home now. IMO, I think 2006, 2005, and 2007 were bad years to buy real estate. But I think early 2004 and late 2008 should be fine. Sure, prices will likely not appreciate for another 5 years, but if you're ready to have a home soon, waiting another five years is a long time. Almost everyone I know who are marginal buyers are thinking about making a purchase by the end of this year - not right now, but definitely within this year. I really think 2009 and 2010 will be very uneventful years for real estate. After the mass foreclosures of 2007 and 2008, things will be pretty normal moving forward.
 
<p>I went to the 356 Quail Ridge open house and it was quite nice actually. Thought the layout was quite good, even thought about making an offer. But it's too early yet.</p>
 
<p>Couple of closes to report...</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/">http://www.ipoplaya.com/</a></p>

<p>Swapped some advertising with a realtor in my neighborhood for some regular closing price updates. Personally, not a fan of many of the realtors I have come across, but this gent is a pretty good egg. </p>

<p>949mommylove - I could add those. I already search 92603, but only up to $1.2M. As the volume would be low between $1.2-2.0M, that is something I could do...</p>

<p>jbatz - Too much work for me! If I was a realtor, with my own access to MLS, maybe. I've got a regular ole job, that will be funding my home purchase, to make sure I keep during the upcoming recession. </p>
 
<p>"After the mass foreclosures of 2007 and 2008, things will be pretty normal moving forward. "</p>

<p>Care for a third cup of kool-aid?</p>

<p>Unless, of course, if by "normal" you mean anyone with a loan reset - regardless of type of loan, who was banking on re-financing based on a higher valuation of their house, will be forced to foreclose and thus depress house prices further, then you are correct. Otherwise, keep dreaming hs.</p>

<p>If you have a loan resetting in the next 5 years, I highly recommend you have a "plan B". Talk to your folks about this possibility and see if they have money they could loan you should the event occurr. Or perhaps you can afford the reset? In that case you want to ask yourself if you would be able to tolerate remitting a monthly mortgage check which may almost be twice as much as your new neighbor's who purchased at the bottom.</p>
 
<p>hs_teach - you'll find that I am one of least bearish types around here, but I disagee with your assessment. </p>

<p>People who bought in 2004, unless they plunked a good chunk of change down, will have their down payments erased by the coming declines. We are already seeing 2004 rollback sales prices. The market value of the home I own has already fallen to 2004 levels and I'd expect to see another $80-100K erased before we hit a bottom. </p>

<p>That means that if I'd have bought my own home in 2004 with 20% down, that entire down payment will have been lost at the trough. Now if everything is peachy income-wise, and people were smart enough to used fixed rates buying in 2004, things would probably be okay for those buyers. Their spending would be constrained some as there would be no opportunity to use non-existent home equity to make purchases.</p>

<p>If these 2004 buyers used 5 or 7-year ARM, very popular loan products by the way, a reset would loom in 2009 or 2011 and there likely would be no refinance opportunity as the home would be a 100% or above LTV That's going to cause some problems. Personally, if I was a 2003 or 2004 buyer sitting on an ARM, I'd be refinancing today while there was still equity. That would stretch out any reset to hopefully a year when some appreciation had re-started. </p>
 
Yes. I think you guys are too bearish. The people who I know who bought in 2004 got excited when prices skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006. They are also bummed that prices dropped in 2007 and are dropping in 2008. But they have 30 year fixed. And their income is more than sufficient to pay their mortgage. They can afford their mortgage for the next 10-30 years. All the current foreclosures are coming from those who bought in 2005 or 2006 - people who really couldn't afford their house. For those who bought in 2004 and earlier, they have weathered 4 years of housing payments. I think they'll be just fine during this downturn. And for 2009 and beyond, I don't really see any speculators buying. By the end of 2008, I expect there will be normal buyers under normal real estate conditions. Personally, I know of 4 people who avoided buying in 05, 06, and 07. And they are definitely buying in 08 or 09. I can see a decent condo selling for 350k by the end of this year. I can also see a decent house selling for 500k by the end of this year. Buying real estate for 300, 400, or 500k has become very normal. No one I know expect prices to drop to the 100 or 200k level. Of course, I'm referring to new homeowners.
 
I am bearish on prices, but that doesn't mean homes won't sell. As more and more people start buying the prices will fall. Right now there is so much inventory piled up, it could handle a huge surge in purchase volume without batting an eye. The people who can afford to sell are the ones who still have equity. If you are close to 100% financing or worse, you are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Those properties will eventually become REO's and will not hit the market for another year and a half. We're only 6 months into this thing, and we have much, much longer to go.
 
Also, the statement "if a person did a 30-yr fixed everything would be peachy keen" is misleading. This assumes that the person(s) does not experience any disruption in personal income and/or major expenses. The thought of a major depression with job losses is terrifying, I know people who make good money whom would be in dire straits if they were out of work for only a few months.
 
<p>Tisk, tisk, maestro. Here's the proper quote - "Now if everything is peachy income-wise, and people were smart enough to used fixed rates buying in 2004, things would probably be okay for those buyers".</p>

<p>In other words, I totally agree with you. A true recession definitely changes the dynamics. Absent that, most people's incomes do tend to rise over time, at least as much as inflation, so being on a 30-year hedged against inflationary impacts they should be able to handle payments in spite of being upside down.</p>
 
<em>"After the mass foreclosures of 2007 and 2008, things will be pretty normal moving forward."</em>





I think you are underestimating the scope and scale of the foreclosure problem. 2007 and 2008 are just priming the pump. The real mess will be 2009 and 2010.
 
<p>I'm not sure that people will wait for the resets. Somebody on Calculated Risk was saying that some people were jinglemailing 'way before any resets were scheduled.</p>

<p>I think it will actually become fashionable to walk. </p>

<p>Based on the Congress' failure to even agree on the stupid bailout, I think it is quite possible for the Congress to fiddle while mtges and pools burn until the next prez is sworn in. By that time we may really be in the $hit.</p>
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top