What the bubble?!?

Is Irvine feeling a bit bubble-licious to you lately?

  • Yes... buy now are be priced out forever.

    Votes: 23 27.4%

  • No... it's just there are only 3 houses on the MLS and interest rates are .00000888%

    Votes: 9 10.7%

  • Maybe... but it's short term... just a mini-bubble that will pop in several months

    Votes: 30 35.7%

  • I have no idea... but I think I just saw a unicorn

    Votes: 19 22.6%

  • Other

    Votes: 3 3.6%
  • Total voters
    84
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
@nsr:

Obv there are outliers. What you do help point out is that a month before I posted this thread, things were lower... then boom.

Can you find any of those Portisol models trading in the mid $700ks now?
 
irvinehomeowner said:
@nsr:

Obv there are outliers. What you do help point out is that a month before I posted this thread, things were lower... then boom.

Can you find any of those Portisol models trading in the mid $700ks now?
Click to expand...

No that's what the chart from oc housing shows, the trough isn't like the 90s trough the trough looks like a slot canyon and if you're lucky will have a repeat of winter 2012 pull back

For a combination of reasons the higher end held on better than the bears gave it credit for.  The lower end, think watermarke, literally had resales a at 60% off.  What would have happened?  Well we can all pontificate an guess but ultimately irvine's large SFRs largely held on for a very brief dip below 20%

IMHO the market is very distorted because of lack on for sale homes  I'm still looking for another rental and frankly they're all on crack

 
irvinehomeowner said:
@nsr:

Obv there are outliers. What you do help point out is that a month before I posted this thread, things were lower... then boom.

Can you find any of those Portisol models trading in the mid $700ks now?
Click to expand...

They're not outliers.  Case-Shiller is problematic when looking at small areas.  Irvine simple doesn't have the necessary resale volume to be able to get an adequate sample of resale homes.

If you look through the sales history, Irvine is littered with large 4bedrooms SFRs selling in 2009 for $300/sf and below. 

30% off the 2005 price in Northpark, 4 bed 3/ba 2500sf.  $242/sf

20% off the Mar 2004 price, 4bd 3ba 2500 sf  $244/sf, northpark

3200sf 4 bd, 3.5 ba & den for $302/sf sold for $966K

And the neighbor, just sold for $1.2 In Jan 2013. for $369/sf, it's 5 bd model of the above and that's still 20% off the post peak prior sale in 2007 of $1,450,000.

Here's one thinking they're going to get $429/sf, but at 121 days on market, I think the market said no.

Here's another across from Northwood park $246/sf.

And another 20% below 2005 price. $246/sf

LOL, I was reading one of the descriptions from 2009, 'seller has bought another, more flexible than a master yoga instructor, more motivated than a mink at a supermodel convention'.

Irvine SFRs were 40% off.  The bottom was 3 years ago.
 
Maybe we're not looking high enough.

Let's swing over to Shady Canyon.  Most of it was actually built post peak.

Here's a little one. 21 Vernal, part of Turtle Rock, only $2.8M, a smidge above it's Jan 2005 price of $2.7M, at $536/sf  That's the very beginning of 2005, prices went up 20%+ from then.  You can see another 50+ properties in Shady with a lower $/sf price.

Here's   Sold short in 2011 for $554/sf! However that's 33% off it's 2006 price. That's a nice sales record on that house, you see it go it up and you see it splat down.

Here's 1 Goldfish, sold in 2010 for 10% below it's 2004 price.


And here's one that just sold for $914/sf. Still 12% below it's 2006 price.

What kind of deal does that make his neighbor 2 doors down on the same side and on a bigger lot at .78 acres at for $554/sf in 2011? That's below his Jan 2004 purchase price.

And make what you will of 51 Golden Eagle's 2007 fantasy sales listing of $6.795 Million and eventual sale at $3.63 Million in 2011.  Note is marked as sold in 2007, with the price blanked out.  That is 47% off it's initial asking price.

Looking at more typical Irvine builds, you have the Villa Plans 1, 2, 3 along Redbird in Shady.

3 Redbird peaked in 2006, at $930/sf.

5 Redbird sold in 2010 for $622/sf
 
@nsr:

You're doing a Larry and cherry picking. I can probably match you house for house with ones that didn't sell for 40% off (I think I have a thread for that somewhere here).

And I think the point is... what are they selling for now? Compared to 6 months to 1 year ago.

P.S. Typically Northpark homes sell for less (maybe the school district?) but I don't think the entire range of them were 40% off peak (and Mineral King isn't a real SFR, no driveway).
 
irvinehomeowner said:
@nsr:

You're doing a Larry and cherry picking. I can probably match you house for house with ones that didn't sell for 40% off (I think I have a thread for that somewhere here).

And I think the point is... what are they selling for now? Compared to 6 months to 1 year ago.

P.S. Typically Northpark homes sell for less (maybe the school district?) but I don't think the entire range of them were 40% off peak (and Mineral King isn't a real SFR, no driveway).
Click to expand...

I don't it matters what they are selling for now. If you had really tried and gone after REOs and short sales and properties that needed some TLC you could have bought for 30-40% off peak pricing if you bought at the right time.
 
paperboyNC said:
irvinehomeowner said:
@nsr:

You're doing a Larry and cherry picking. I can probably match you house for house with ones that didn't sell for 40% off (I think I have a thread for that somewhere here).

And I think the point is... what are they selling for now? Compared to 6 months to 1 year ago.

P.S. Typically Northpark homes sell for less (maybe the school district?) but I don't think the entire range of them were 40% off peak (and Mineral King isn't a real SFR, no driveway).
Click to expand...

I don't it matters what they are selling for now. If you had really tried and gone after REOs and short sales and properties that needed some TLC you could have bought for 30-40% off peak pricing if you bought at the right time.
Click to expand...
Well considering this topic is more or less "Are we in another bubble right now?", it sort of matters what they are selling for now.

There is a sidetrack of how much they actually dropped... but that's less significant than the notion that homes are selling now for close to or over their last bubble prices.

REOs, short sales, TLC does not make up the average of Irvine homes.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Well considering this topic is more or less "Are we in another bubble right now?", it sort of matters what they are selling for now.

There is a sidetrack of how much they actually dropped... but that's less significant than the notion that homes are selling now for close to or over their last bubble prices.

REOs, short sales, TLC does not make up the average of Irvine homes.
Click to expand...

It's hard to predict the future. Interest rates will be on the big drivers of whether or not we have a price crash in the next 5 years. If they go up slowly like they have been prices likely will not fall. If they suddenly jump back up to 6% for a 30yr fixed, prices would have to retreat.

All you need is one home to live in - you don't need 500 short sales, you just needed one that you could actually buy.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
paperboyNC said:
irvinehomeowner said:
@nsr:

You're doing a Larry and cherry picking. I can probably match you house for house with ones that didn't sell for 40% off (I think I have a thread for that somewhere here).

And I think the point is... what are they selling for now? Compared to 6 months to 1 year ago.

P.S. Typically Northpark homes sell for less (maybe the school district?) but I don't think the entire range of them were 40% off peak (and Mineral King isn't a real SFR, no driveway).
Click to expand...

I don't it matters what they are selling for now. If you had really tried and gone after REOs and short sales and properties that needed some TLC you could have bought for 30-40% off peak pricing if you bought at the right time.
Click to expand...
Well considering this topic is more or less "Are we in another bubble right now?", it sort of matters what they are selling for now.

There is a sidetrack of how much they actually dropped... but that's less significant than the notion that homes are selling now for close to or over their last bubble prices.

REOs, short sales, TLC does not make up the average of Irvine homes.
Click to expand...

Except the fact that inflation was 16.1% since 2006 peak and if you refi-d out cash or carried a loan, you're carrying cost is another 20% less.  Yes a lot of homes buy with cash, but they also turn around a refi cash back out.

A million dollar home in 2006 is a very different beast from a buying perspective than a million dollar home in 2013.

The present value of the monthly payment on a 70% LTV loan at a 2.5% discount is $200K.

The prices have climbed dramatically, but that is from the reality very steep drop.  I don't understand the vested interest in pretending the few, it is few because sales volume was so low overall that it makes the statistics tough, other than trying to not feel like you missed it.

Bad news, you missed it.  The bottom was three years ago.  It's 2001 again, except this time, things are already cooling and the meth of easy financing isn't around.

 
nosuchreality said:
irvinehomeowner said:
paperboyNC said:
irvinehomeowner said:
@nsr:

You're doing a Larry and cherry picking. I can probably match you house for house with ones that didn't sell for 40% off (I think I have a thread for that somewhere here).

And I think the point is... what are they selling for now? Compared to 6 months to 1 year ago.

P.S. Typically Northpark homes sell for less (maybe the school district?) but I don't think the entire range of them were 40% off peak (and Mineral King isn't a real SFR, no driveway).
Click to expand...

I don't it matters what they are selling for now. If you had really tried and gone after REOs and short sales and properties that needed some TLC you could have bought for 30-40% off peak pricing if you bought at the right time.
Click to expand...
Well considering this topic is more or less "Are we in another bubble right now?", it sort of matters what they are selling for now.

There is a sidetrack of how much they actually dropped... but that's less significant than the notion that homes are selling now for close to or over their last bubble prices.

REOs, short sales, TLC does not make up the average of Irvine homes.
Click to expand...

Except the fact that inflation was 16.1% since 2006 peak and if you refi-d out cash or carried a loan, you're carrying cost is another 20% less.  Yes a lot of homes buy with cash, but they also turn around a refi cash back out.

A million dollar home in 2006 is a very different beast from a buying perspective than a million dollar home in 2013.

The present value of the monthly payment on a 70% LTV loan at a 2.5% discount is $200K.

The prices have climbed dramatically, but that is from the reality very steep drop.  I don't understand the vested interest in pretending the few, it is few because sales volume was so low overall that it makes the statistics tough, other than trying to not feel like you missed it.

Bad news, you missed it.  The bottom was three years ago.  It's 2001 again, except this time, things are already cooling and the meth of easy financing isn't around.
Click to expand...

We got in at the back end...the price jump in the past 4-5 months has been pretty mind boggling for new homes.
 
Prices are not going to crash because people are beginning to realize cash is worthless & manipulated by governments that cannot stop printing.  If the money printing stops, then the world as we know it stops.  So as time marches on, money is of lesser and lesser value.  We will print until we can't. 

So how do you make the best decision in this type of environment?  Park your cash in something tangible.

1. Stocks
2. Property
3. Gold
4. Birkin bags

Why would housing prices fall if there is so much liquidity around the world?  Money is like water looking for the highest return.  It has to go somewhere.  What would happen if we taper?
 
Irvinecommuter said:
We got in at the back end...the price jump in the past 4-5 months has been pretty mind boggling for new homes.
Click to expand...
That's more to what I'm talking about.

Seems like it was a big jump rather than a gradual one.

I recall it this way because home prices were still relatively low during the latter part of 2012.

So to those who are discussing, it does seem like a price jump to match the last bubble, but not really a bubble because these prices are supported by fundamental/economical reasons?
 
Back in 2001 ~ 2002 right before the dot com bust, my friend bought a Porsche boxster for $75,000.  During the bust he lost most of his investment money.  In the end, the best investment he made was the boxster.  He drove it for a year, and sold it for around $55,000. 

If he had used the $75,000 to invest, he would have lost most of it.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Irvinecommuter said:
We got in at the back end...the price jump in the past 4-5 months has been pretty mind boggling for new homes.
Click to expand...
That's more to what I'm talking about.

Seems like it was a big jump rather than a gradual one.

I recall it this way because home prices were still relatively low during the latter part of 2012.

So to those who are discussing, it does seem like a price jump to match the last bubble, but not really a bubble because these prices are supported by fundamental/economical reasons?
Click to expand...

But the increase in price has leveled out...you're looking at maybe an increase of like 5-10% in the past few months. 
 
Irvinecommuter said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Irvinecommuter said:
We got in at the back end...the price jump in the past 4-5 months has been pretty mind boggling for new homes.
Click to expand...
That's more to what I'm talking about.

Seems like it was a big jump rather than a gradual one.

I recall it this way because home prices were still relatively low during the latter part of 2012.

So to those who are discussing, it does seem like a price jump to match the last bubble, but not really a bubble because these prices are supported by fundamental/economical reasons?
Click to expand...

But the increase in price has leveled out...you're looking at maybe an increase of like 5-10% in the past few months.
Click to expand...

Like someone else said in TI "Trees dont grow to the sky".
 
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