What global warming?

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[quote author="WINEX" date=1226910741]That's great that you have an undergrad in biology. If I could go back in time 25 years and still knew what I know now, I would have picked up several biology classes at the undergrad myself. As is, I concentrated in computer science and statistics at the undergrad level, then later picked up an MBA with a concentration in finance. Of course adding biology to the skillset would have positioned me to work in bio-informatics.



Perhaps if you had funding and the appropriate data, you could explain why the Medieval Warm Period ( 800 AD to 1300 AD ) or the Little Ice Age ( 1300 AD to 1850 AD ) appear so flat in the chart that Green Cactus linked to earlier. Just doing a quick eyeball of the data, it appears to be about a .3 C difference from peak to trough in average temperature deltas from the 1990 baseline between a period that was very warm, and a period that was very cold. Perhaps if you researched the issue, you might come to the conclusion that <a href="http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Loehle_Divergence_CC.pdf">tree rings may not be the best instrument to reconstruct historic temperatures.</a>



Also, as someone with a background in the sciences, I'm sure you will acknowledge that despite your mentioning that "98 percent of scientists agree with global warming", the fact is that over 99 percent of scientists don't practice in the right functional areas and/or haven't done exhaustive analysis of the data out there to have a qualified opinion. Personally, my background is in data. Although I have the right skillset to go deeper in this arena, that is not the direction I have taken my career in. However, I do know enough on this topic to know that you can't make a valid inference from an invalid data set. And everything I have read on this topic leads me to the inescapable conclusion that we don't have valid data here.



I also hope that you will retract your statement that a certain set of political belief systems make someone people unqualified to have an opinion on this topic.</blockquote>


I too am a data guy, and I would like to see the data you are talking about. I have only read a few things on the subject, and I am not convinced either way, but my knowledge is limited. I could google search for the data, but if you have some of the links handy, then I would appreciate it if you would provide the links.



OT, but if you don't mind, I am also curious where you got your MBA from. I would like to know the pros and cons, what you liked and disliked, etc. If you feel a PM would be better to answer that, then I understand, and I also understand if you don't wish to answer that.
 
[quote author="green_cactus" date=1226931373]



If you want to stick to science, show me some peer reviewed paper that proves your stance. By the way, we are not talking about predicting if it's going to rain on Jun 15 2013. The focus is on the global trend in surface temperature.



BTW, you might want to read that paper I linked previously; it goes beyond tree-rings to show that there is a warming trend.</blockquote>


I'll assume your answer means that you aren't familiar with Chaos Theory. Chaos and Sensitive Dependency to Initial Conditions doesn't just lead to minor differences in predicted outcomes. The results vary wildly. Though real science doesn't claim to have all the answers like the junk science you follow does, it really does provide more satisfying results.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1226939655][quote author="WINEX" date=1226910741]That's great that you have an undergrad in biology. If I could go back in time 25 years and still knew what I know now, I would have picked up several biology classes at the undergrad myself. As is, I concentrated in computer science and statistics at the undergrad level, then later picked up an MBA with a concentration in finance. Of course adding biology to the skillset would have positioned me to work in bio-informatics.



Perhaps if you had funding and the appropriate data, you could explain why the Medieval Warm Period ( 800 AD to 1300 AD ) or the Little Ice Age ( 1300 AD to 1850 AD ) appear so flat in the chart that Green Cactus linked to earlier. Just doing a quick eyeball of the data, it appears to be about a .3 C difference from peak to trough in average temperature deltas from the 1990 baseline between a period that was very warm, and a period that was very cold. Perhaps if you researched the issue, you might come to the conclusion that <a href="http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Loehle_Divergence_CC.pdf">tree rings may not be the best instrument to reconstruct historic temperatures.</a>



Also, as someone with a background in the sciences, I'm sure you will acknowledge that despite your mentioning that "98 percent of scientists agree with global warming", the fact is that over 99 percent of scientists don't practice in the right functional areas and/or haven't done exhaustive analysis of the data out there to have a qualified opinion. Personally, my background is in data. Although I have the right skillset to go deeper in this arena, that is not the direction I have taken my career in. However, I do know enough on this topic to know that you can't make a valid inference from an invalid data set. And everything I have read on this topic leads me to the inescapable conclusion that we don't have valid data here.



I also hope that you will retract your statement that a certain set of political belief systems make someone people unqualified to have an opinion on this topic.</blockquote>


I too am a data guy, and I would like to see the data you are talking about. I have only read a few things on the subject, and I am not convinced either way, but my knowledge is limited. I could google search for the data, but if you have some of the links handy, then I would appreciate it if you would provide the links.



OT, but if you don't mind, I am also curious where you got your MBA from. I would like to know the pros and cons, what you liked and disliked, etc. If you feel a PM would be better to answer that, then I understand, and I also understand if you don't wish to answer that.</blockquote>


The best work by people spreading the truth is being done by Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick. I recommend reading www.climateaudit.org
 
[quote author="WINEX" date=1226963788][quote author="graphrix" date=1226939655][quote author="WINEX" date=1226910741]That's great that you have an undergrad in biology. If I could go back in time 25 years and still knew what I know now, I would have picked up several biology classes at the undergrad myself. As is, I concentrated in computer science and statistics at the undergrad level, then later picked up an MBA with a concentration in finance. Of course adding biology to the skillset would have positioned me to work in bio-informatics.



Perhaps if you had funding and the appropriate data, you could explain why the Medieval Warm Period ( 800 AD to 1300 AD ) or the Little Ice Age ( 1300 AD to 1850 AD ) appear so flat in the chart that Green Cactus linked to earlier. Just doing a quick eyeball of the data, it appears to be about a .3 C difference from peak to trough in average temperature deltas from the 1990 baseline between a period that was very warm, and a period that was very cold. Perhaps if you researched the issue, you might come to the conclusion that <a href="http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Loehle_Divergence_CC.pdf">tree rings may not be the best instrument to reconstruct historic temperatures.</a>



Also, as someone with a background in the sciences, I'm sure you will acknowledge that despite your mentioning that "98 percent of scientists agree with global warming", the fact is that over 99 percent of scientists don't practice in the right functional areas and/or haven't done exhaustive analysis of the data out there to have a qualified opinion. Personally, my background is in data. Although I have the right skillset to go deeper in this arena, that is not the direction I have taken my career in. However, I do know enough on this topic to know that you can't make a valid inference from an invalid data set. And everything I have read on this topic leads me to the inescapable conclusion that we don't have valid data here.



I also hope that you will retract your statement that a certain set of political belief systems make someone people unqualified to have an opinion on this topic.</blockquote>


I too am a data guy, and I would like to see the data you are talking about. I have only read a few things on the subject, and I am not convinced either way, but my knowledge is limited. I could google search for the data, but if you have some of the links handy, then I would appreciate it if you would provide the links.



OT, but if you don't mind, I am also curious where you got your MBA from. I would like to know the pros and cons, what you liked and disliked, etc. If you feel a PM would be better to answer that, then I understand, and I also understand if you don't wish to answer that.</blockquote>


The best work by people spreading the truth is being done by Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick. I recommend reading www.climateaudit.org</blockquote>


Yet the best they can do is get published in E&E. Have they had any publications in a respected journal? No. Have they added anything to the body of knowledge other than denying that warming exists? No. Yet you claim these are the "experts" in the field. Give me a break.
 
[quote author="WINEX" date=1226963675][quote author="green_cactus" date=1226931373]



If you want to stick to science, show me some peer reviewed paper that proves your stance. By the way, we are not talking about predicting if it's going to rain on Jun 15 2013. The focus is on the global trend in surface temperature.



BTW, you might want to read that paper I linked previously; it goes beyond tree-rings to show that there is a warming trend.</blockquote>


I'll assume your answer means that you aren't familiar with Chaos Theory. Chaos and Sensitive Dependency to Initial Conditions doesn't just lead to minor differences in predicted outcomes. The results vary wildly. Though real science doesn't claim to have all the answers like the junk science you follow does, it really does provide more satisfying results.</blockquote>


It's not about knowing all the answers. I never claimed that. It is about building a theory that stands up to the scientific method. So far, the theory of global warming has done that. The Winex Speculation of Chaos in Weather not so much. The conclusions are vastly different. One by experts in the field, the other by a self-proclaimed chaos theorist that can do nothing more than regurgitate a sci-fi movie explanation of it. I guess you enjoyed that Ashton Kutcher movie a bit too much.
 
[quote author="green_cactus" date=1226966872][quote author="WINEX" date=1226963675][quote author="green_cactus" date=1226931373]



If you want to stick to science, show me some peer reviewed paper that proves your stance. By the way, we are not talking about predicting if it's going to rain on Jun 15 2013. The focus is on the global trend in surface temperature.



BTW, you might want to read that paper I linked previously; it goes beyond tree-rings to show that there is a warming trend.</blockquote>


I'll assume your answer means that you aren't familiar with Chaos Theory. Chaos and Sensitive Dependency to Initial Conditions doesn't just lead to minor differences in predicted outcomes. The results vary wildly. Though real science doesn't claim to have all the answers like the junk science you follow does, it really does provide more satisfying results.</blockquote>


It's not about knowing all the answers. I never claimed that. It is about building a theory that stands up to the scientific method. So far, the theory of global warming has done that. The Winex Speculation of Chaos in Weather not so much. The conclusions are vastly different. One by experts in the field, the other by a self-proclaimed chaos theorist that can do nothing more than regurgitate a sci-fi movie explanation of it. I guess you enjoyed that Ashton Kutcher movie a bit too much.</blockquote>


How can you make valid inferences from invalid data?
 
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