We are not in a bubble (yet)

[zubs]

Back in 2009 Larry wrote about UCLA's Anderson school forecasting.  You can see it here:http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2009/11/02/12-orangetip-irvine-ca-92604-walnut/

The gist of that 7 year old post is...they're full of shit.

In 2009 they wrongly called the bottom for OC housing.

 

[Perspective]

"The current rise in home prices seems to be driven by rising effective demand and limited supply, not by speculation."

How does anyone quantify this well? How do you know there's little to no speculation? There's a large percentage of TI folks who buy considering appreciation and the next move-up. That's speculation, no?

 

[hello]

"The current rise in home prices seems to be driven by rising effective demand and limited supply, not by speculation."

How does anyone quantify this well? How do you know there's little to no speculation? There's a large percentage of TI folks who buy considering appreciation and the next move-up. That's speculation, no?

I would argue most people buy with some speculation.  True there are those that buy what they could afford knowing they will be in the home for a while and expecting little to no appreciation, but most people seem to buy thinking that housing prices never fall, prices always go up and its a good "investment" mainly due to appreciation and not for other reasons that make buying a home sensible.