Trump Tax Reform and Home Prices

[eyephone]

This is just negotiating with maximum leverage.  I don't know why Rubio cares so much about the child tax credit, but he got what he wanted.

Get ready to pay higher taxes Irvine-ites, so I can get my 3.7% tax reduction!!

Not me, pass-thru income FTW! Plus I used to be fully phased out of SALT via AMT, now I might actually get a deduction for it. 

I assume your not going to give your staff a raise like GOP members are saying. (Small business owners are going to make more money and they are going to give more to their workers)

That has always been a myth .  As someone who has closely worked with very senior levels of management as a consultant, I can tell you they give a cr**p about workers - they are nothing more than numbers on a spreadsheet to be shrunk as they merge and acquire and get sold.  As companies have grown bigger and bigger with lesser competition, this is one reason why middle class wages have failed to keep pace.

As to smaller businesses, they pay their workers more only when they are forced to, to retain or acquire talent .  To that extent, if consumer confidence remains high and unemployment keeps falling I can see wages rise and more workers get hired , but it will not be because business owners suddenly are feeling generous from additional money in their pockets . There are obviously exceptions.

Many GOP voters are dumb-i-fied from Fox News  but even they understand this bill is not driven by logic to help workers, hence its unpopularity.

As someone else said, current GOP is so boneheaded that they have achieved the unique feat of making Obamacare popular and tax cuts unpopular

This is also probably the worst time to cut taxes.  End of a boom cycle, low unemployment, and raising interest rates.  Not to mention the global economy basically states that even if companies hire new workers, it is not going to be in this country.

+1

One of my colleagues works with clients is in asset mgmt. biz and he told me that (God forbid) if we hit a recession for some reason soon, these tax cuts and the resulting deficit will make it that much more difficult to do anything to fix the economy when its most needed.

Sorry if this offends anyone but most small business owners are very short term focused in my experience (understandably so since many small businesses have shorter tenures) and while they may be cheering on tax cuts now, they will be the first ones to feel the pain when and if the economy overheats as a result and we land into a recession. Republican administrations are usually very good at that if history is any guide.

California?s economy would rank 6th and New York?s economy would rank 11th in the world.
In addition, California contributes 13.3% and New York contributes 8.1% to the US economy.

If people don?t spend on consumer goods due to the cap on SALT deductions. (For example, a person may be paying quarterly estimated tax payments instead of spending it on goods or services.) What do you think will potentially happen to the economy and deficit? (You don?t have to a genius like me to figure that out.  )

 

[fortune11]

Hard to see 30y fixed rising above 5% .  One thing we should always remember is everything today is connected - i.e. you cannot have rates in the US at much higher levels without rates in Europe and Japan also a lot higher than where they are now. meaning if there is massive inflationary pressure throughout the world .  What will cause that. ?  nothing I or anyone else can think of.  The developed world is aging fast and actually declining in terms of population once you exclude immigration.  capacity is now global, oil supply is plentiful.  technology is rapidly cutting cost in every which direction .  simply put , historical averages mean nothing .

biology follows mean reversion but economies do not.  ie. if heights did not mean revert then thousands of years of evolution would have produced a few gigantic 20-30 foot humans by now just by randomness.  However , world economies and stock markets are massively bigger now without a comparable rise in population thanks to rising productivity.

I remember reading on some gloom and doom boards where they predicted how rising rates will crush the housing market.  housing market in Irvine will rise and fall based on economic cycle and continued creation of high paying jobs.  The day that changes will be when you start to worry. I dont even think FCBs are that important in the big scheme  of things .  They may be a pain when it comes to getting the prized lot in a new development though where cash bids get priority. 

 

[fortune11]

This is just negotiating with maximum leverage.  I don't know why Rubio cares so much about the child tax credit, but he got what he wanted.

Get ready to pay higher taxes Irvine-ites, so I can get my 3.7% tax reduction!!

Not me, pass-thru income FTW! Plus I used to be fully phased out of SALT via AMT, now I might actually get a deduction for it. 

I assume your not going to give your staff a raise like GOP members are saying. (Small business owners are going to make more money and they are going to give more to their workers)

That has always been a myth .  As someone who has closely worked with very senior levels of management as a consultant, I can tell you they give a cr**p about workers - they are nothing more than numbers on a spreadsheet to be shrunk as they merge and acquire and get sold.  As companies have grown bigger and bigger with lesser competition, this is one reason why middle class wages have failed to keep pace.

As to smaller businesses, they pay their workers more only when they are forced to, to retain or acquire talent .  To that extent, if consumer confidence remains high and unemployment keeps falling I can see wages rise and more workers get hired , but it will not be because business owners suddenly are feeling generous from additional money in their pockets . There are obviously exceptions.

Many GOP voters are dumb-i-fied from Fox News  but even they understand this bill is not driven by logic to help workers, hence its unpopularity.

As someone else said, current GOP is so boneheaded that they have achieved the unique feat of making Obamacare popular and tax cuts unpopular

This is also probably the worst time to cut taxes.  End of a boom cycle, low unemployment, and raising interest rates.  Not to mention the global economy basically states that even if companies hire new workers, it is not going to be in this country.

+1

One of my colleagues works with clients is in asset mgmt. biz and he told me that (God forbid) if we hit a recession for some reason soon, these tax cuts and the resulting deficit will make it that much more difficult to do anything to fix the economy when its most needed.

Sorry if this offends anyone but most small business owners are very short term focused in my experience (understandably so since many small businesses have shorter tenures) and while they may be cheering on tax cuts now, they will be the first ones to feel the pain when and if the economy overheats as a result and we land into a recession. Republican administrations are usually very good at that if history is any guide.

California?s economy would rank 6th and New York?s economy would rank 11th in the world.
In addition, California contributes 13.3% and New York contributes 8.1% to the US economy.

If people don?t spend on consumer goods due to the cap on SALT deductions. What do you think will potentially happen to the economy and deficit? (You don?t have to a genius like me to figure that out.  )

Thats actually my concern too as contrary to popular myth, w-2 wage earners are the ones driving bulk of the consumer spending (not small business owners) and if they see their take home pay  shrink , you could see a knock on effect which will end up hurting the very people that are currently cheering on these tax "cuts " .

 

[usctrojancpa]

Hard to see 30y fixed rising above 5% .  One thing we should always remember is everything today is connected - i.e. you cannot have rates in the US at much higher levels without rates in Europe and Japan also a lot higher than where they are now. meaning if there is massive inflationary pressure throughout the world .  What will cause that. ?  nothing I or anyone else can think of.  The developed world is aging fast and actually declining in terms of population once you exclude immigration.  capacity is now global, oil supply is plentiful.  technology is rapidly cutting cost in every which direction .  simply put , historical averages mean nothing .

biology follows mean reversion but economies do not.  ie. if heights did not mean revert then thousands of years of evolution would have produced a few gigantic 20-30 foot humans by now just by randomness.  However , world economies and stock markets are massively bigger now without a comparable rise in population thanks to rising productivity.

I remember reading on some gloom and doom boards where they predicted how rising rates will crush the housing market.  housing market in Irvine will rise and fall based on economic cycle and continued creation of high paying jobs.  The day that changes will be when you start to worry. I dont even think FCBs are that important in the big scheme  of things .  They may be a pain when it comes to getting the prized lot in a new development though where cash bids get priority. 

Very well put.  Jobs, wages, economy, etc will dictate where real estate markets head not this tax bill. 

 

[paperboyNC]

What if you received the bill in 2017, but due date is April 2018?

Will count as this years tax (logically speaking)

 

[aquabliss]

In a pre-emptive move against accounting maneuvers in high-tax states such as New York and California, the bill prohibits taxpayers from prepaying next year?s state and local income or property taxes, in order to deduct them from 2018 taxes. That form of tax planning would have allowed taxpayers to benefit more from the full state and local deduction this year before it is capped next year.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/15/us/politics/republican-tax-bill.html

You mean in order to deduct them from 2017 taxes.  This is a pretty crap move, I was going to pay mine next week to deduct in 2017.

 

[eyephone]

?A last-minute addition to the GOP tax plan creates a new tax deduction that would potentially benefit both President Trump and Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker (R), who is seen as a swing vote on the Republican tax-reform plan.

Corker's spokesman denied that the senator knew about the provision before agreeing to vote for it, and added that he did not request any specific provisions before switching his vote to "yes." Corker was the only Republican senator to vote against the bill when it passed in a 2 a.m. session in early December.

"Senator Corker is not a member of the tax-writing committee and made no requests for specific provisions throughout this debate," a spokesman for Corker told the International Business Times.?
https://www.google.com/amp/thehill....x-bill-would-benefit-trump-corker-ibtimes?amp

Talk about adding syrup to make the bill sweeter.

 

[WTTCHMN]

Will Your Taxes Go Up or Down? A Calculator for the New Tax Bill
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/17/upshot/tax-calculator.html

 

[Liar Loan]

So taxes will be lowered and the Obamacare mandate will be repealed in about a week's time.  Has the #Resistance succeeded at doing anything yet?

Alabama turned blue thanks to organized voter turnout. And this will happen again and again.  while you keep gloating your way into oblivion. 

Reminds me of cocky democrats in 2008 and how they paid a heavy price for it in 3 subsequent election cycles.  GOP is about to go through the ringer and there aren't enough fox-addled older white male voters to save them

I can see by the anger in your post that you don't think the #Resistance has been successful.  That's how I see it too, and I think your post must be a microcosm of how Democrats are feeling.

 

[eyephone]

So taxes will be lowered and the Obamacare mandate will be repealed in about a week's time.  Has the #Resistance succeeded at doing anything yet?

Alabama turned blue thanks to organized voter turnout. And this will happen again and again.  while you keep gloating your way into oblivion. 

Reminds me of cocky democrats in 2008 and how they paid a heavy price for it in 3 subsequent election cycles.  GOP is about to go through the ringer and there aren't enough fox-addled older white male voters to save them

I can see by the anger in your post that you don't think the #Resistance has been successful.  That's how I see it too, and I think your post must be a microcosm of how Democrats are feeling.

Add the FCC ruling regarding NN. (Many people on both sides don?t like it.)

 

[Irvinecommuter]

So taxes will be lowered and the Obamacare mandate will be repealed in about a week's time.  Has the #Resistance succeeded at doing anything yet?

Alabama turned blue thanks to organized voter turnout. And this will happen again and again.  while you keep gloating your way into oblivion. 

Reminds me of cocky democrats in 2008 and how they paid a heavy price for it in 3 subsequent election cycles.  GOP is about to go through the ringer and there aren't enough fox-addled older white male voters to save them

I can see by the anger in your post that you don't think the #Resistance has been successful.  That's how I see it too, and I think your post must be a microcosm of how Democrats are feeling.

Add the FCC ruling regarding NN. (Many people on both sides don?t like it.)

Trump is a like 35% popularity, Republicans are like -15% against Dems in Congress, and the tax bill is like at 26% approval rating. 

Pretty sure those are just numbers for LL though.

 

[newPParker]

So taxes will be lowered and the Obamacare mandate will be repealed in about a week's time.  Has the #Resistance succeeded at doing anything yet?

Alabama turned blue thanks to organized voter turnout. And this will happen again and again.  while you keep gloating your way into oblivion. 

Reminds me of cocky democrats in 2008 and how they paid a heavy price for it in 3 subsequent election cycles.  GOP is about to go through the ringer and there aren't enough fox-addled older white male voters to save them

I can see by the anger in your post that you don't think the #Resistance has been successful.  That's how I see it too, and I think your post must be a microcosm of how Democrats are feeling.

Add the FCC ruling regarding NN. (Many people on both sides don?t like it.)

Trump is a like 35% popularity, Republicans are like -15% against Dems in Congress, and the tax bill is like at 26% approval rating. 

Pretty sure those are just numbers for LL though.

It seems like republicans are betting on people changing their mind as they see their paychecks starting in 2018 Jan to win them over. Time will tell!

 

[mikebruin]

I do think it's wrong for the government to specifically support certain industries through such a large tax cut, but not others.  It's one thing to encourage certain behaviors in the marketplace using tax deductions (179 depreciation) or tax credits (work opportunity tax credit).  These are widely available to many industries.  But to apply different tax deductions to specific industries?  I think that's going overboard.  That's like saying, if you own a dentist practice, you can deduct depreciation.  But if you own an auto body shop, you cannot.

For professionals that work in health, law, accounting, actuaries, performing arts, consulting, athletics, financial services, brokerages services, investment mgmt, trading, securities dealers, commodities, etc.  These firms do not get the 20% passthrough deduction.  But engineering and architecture firms?  Sure, you get the passthrough deduction and you can exclude 20% of your income from tax.  The government is openly discriminating against certain industries and supporting others through this broad tax deduction, but specifically excludes these fields.

I realize engineering and architecture are very important fields.  But is it really necessary to give those firms an additional 20% tax cut, and exclude all other professional firms?  Why can't we have a more level playing field for all kinds of businesses, and let the marketplace determine what is more important/rewarding?  I thought the GOP was all about keeping government out.

Oh, but landlords?  You're good.  There's an exception for you.  You will likely get the extra 20% deduction.  Because being a landlord is much more important to our society than providing quality healthcare.

 

[usctrojancpa]

What about being a realtor?

 

[irvine buyer]

undecided, I believe the reasoning behind the excluded professions is to prevent folks that otherwise file Schedule C from forming an LLC just to get the 20% deduction.  The goal is to benefit businesses formed as pass-through entities such as S Corps and LLC's that employ others just as the cut in corporate tax rates benefits C Corps.  I haven't read the details regarding the exclusions but am curious if an accounting firm that employed 30 people would be excluded.  that would go against the grain of the intention for the deduction.  Maybe someone who has read that part of the bill can chime in.

 

[Perspective]

I do think it's wrong for the government to specifically support certain industries through such a large tax cut, but not others.  It's one thing to encourage certain behaviors in the marketplace using tax deductions (179 depreciation) or tax credits (work opportunity tax credit).  These are widely available to many industries.  But to apply different tax deductions to specific industries?  I think that's going overboard.  That's like saying, if you own a dentist practice, you can deduct depreciation.  But if you own an auto body shop, you cannot.

For professionals that work in health, law, accounting, actuaries, performing arts, consulting, athletics, financial services, brokerages services, investment mgmt, trading, securities dealers, commodities, etc.  These firms do not get the 20% passthrough deduction.  But engineering and architecture firms?  Sure, you get the passthrough deduction and you can exclude 20% of your income from tax.  The government is openly discriminating against certain industries and supporting others through this broad tax deduction, but specifically excludes these fields.

I realize engineering and architecture are very important fields.  But is it really necessary to give those firms an additional 20% tax cut, and exclude all other professional firms?  Why can't we have a more level playing field for all kinds of businesses, and let the marketplace determine what is more important/rewarding?  I thought the GOP was all about keeping government out.

Oh, but landlords?  You're good.  There's an exception for you.  You will likely get the extra 20% deduction.  Because being a landlord is much more important to our society than providing quality healthcare.

Agreed, but the tax code was a complicated compilation of unfairness before this deal, and will remain such after. Why is any income from "business" related activities subject to a lower rate than any activity related to earning income with your own hands/brain?

If anything, this should be reversed - income you earn from your own physical/brain activity should be taxed at a lower rate than income you earn passively through "business" or investing. In the interest of fairness and compromise, all "income" should just be treated the same, regardless of its source, purpose, or any other reason.

 

[fortune11]

Whatever happened to ?you will be able to file your taxes on a single post card ? ?

Maybe the dog ate the post card

 

[Liar Loan]

What about being a realtor?

Well, clearly the world would come to a halt without this important profession.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Whatever happened to ?you will be able to file your taxes on a single post card ? ?

Maybe the dog ate the post card

I don't understand this infatuation.  It's not hard to do your tax especially in this era of turbotax. 

 

[Liar Loan]

Whatever happened to ?you will be able to file your taxes on a single post card ? ?

Maybe the dog ate the post card

I don't understand this infatuation.  It's not hard to do your tax especially in this era of turbotax. 

That was in reference to those that take the standard deduction, which many more will take advantage of now.  It was never intended to mean people that itemize.

I agree with you about the ease of doing taxes, but for some reason lots of people still pay tax preparation services even when they do take the standard deduction.